A Road Map to Enhanced Simulation Capabilities for the National Weather Service: A 5-Year Strategic Vision Warning Decision Training Branch July 2010
Jan 11, 2016
A Road Map to Enhanced Simulation Capabilities for
the National Weather Service:
A 5-Year Strategic Vision
Warning Decision Training Branch
July 2010
Click to edit Master title styleOverview
• Current State of WFO Simulations• Discussion of Needs• Advanced Simulations and Exercises
that Address Needs• Leveraging AWIPS-2
Click to edit Master title styleWES Development &
Terminology
CurrentWES
(AWIPS1)
WES2AWIPS2 Baseline
WES2 Bridge
2010- AWIPS1 FY 20142010-2014
Current WFO Simulation Capabilities
WES WES
Internet AWIPS
• Two WES configurations (WFO distribution: ~50% each)
• Easier to transfer cases
• Easier to manage & update
• NWS Instruction 20-101: 4 simulations/year• Few WFOs: additional machines for teamwork
simulations in warning scenarios• Case Review (e.g., damage surveys and local
research)• Local & National simulations (Science and
Technology Concepts)
Current WFO Simulation Capabilities
• Limited AWIPS Functionality• Level of WES knowledge among SOOs and ITOs not ideal
• Current capabilities fully exploited? • WESSL: WES Scripting Language: audio, video, reports,
graphics, training material
AWIPS-2 & AWIPS-2 Extended
• WES 2 to be “baselined” along with other projects– NAWIPS (National Centers)– CHPS (RFCs)– Thin Client (software)
• Initial WES 2 operating capability FY 2012• Final WES 2 operating capability FY 2014• OSIP Project ongoing
Needs: Root Cause Analysis
Factors contributing to 127 missed tornadoes (2004-2005)
20%
16%64%
Science
Technology
HumanFactors
• Human Factors Causes— Communication/Teamwork
with EM/Spotters/Forecasters— Incorrect Use of Tools — Distractions/Loss of SA— Staffing, Workload, Fatigue,
Inexperience
(2004-2009)
Human Factors (84%)
Science & Technology (16%)
Needs: Service Assessments
Finding: The lack of real-time feedback … contributed to … underestimating the magnitude of flash flooding.
Finding: Despite outreach efforts and table-top exercises where communications with NWS was stressed, EMs generally were unaware of the NWS need for real-time information in a flood event.
Finding: Forecasters had little time to solicit feedback. Calls to 911 centers were unproductive. Direct contact with EMs … would be better.
Recommendation: “NWSFO EWX should work with EM officials to seek alternative and more efficient methods to confirm receipt of warnings”.
Recommendation: “NWS should … explore alternative methods of communicating … to EM officials”.
Finding: Very little real-time information … was relayed to the NWS by local officials.
Recommendation: “The NWS should continue to work aggressively with emergency managers and others in law enforcement … for timely receipt of severe weather information.”
“Recommendation: WCMs should work with local emergency management personnel to develop new or enhanced communication systems”.
Finding: “Some media partners … prefer more definitive tornado warnings and SVSs”.
Finding: “There was no coordination between WFO Nashville and WFO Louisville on the … tornado warning”.
Recommendation: “NWS should require regions to develop severe weather coordination procedures between neighboring offices”.
Recommendation: “NWS should communicate with EMs and other key decision makers to highlight unusual or fast-changing situations involving extreme weather events”.
Recommendation: “When a severe weather event is moving from one CWA to another, the appropriate WFOs should contact each other to ensure a full and complete exchange of relevant information”.
Three Recurring Issues For The Past 20+ Years:
Distributed and CollaborativeDecision-Making
Communication
Coordination (Teamwork)
Three Recurring Issues For The Past 20+ Years:
Distributed and CollaborativeDecision-Making
Communication
Coordination (Teamwork)
Integrated Warning Team Scenarios
Successful Warnings: Public Safety
Participants assigned IWT role they don’t normally have
• Level playing ground; all players have some discomfort
• Walk in someone else’s shoes: helps build empathy and understanding for the IWT partner needs → better communication & collaboration
Scenario and Debrief Guided by Experts•Challenging event with as much realism as possible
•Debrief exercise requires players to think about changes they could make in their own role that may cause positive outcomes for other team members.
MediaNWSEM
Integrated Warning Team Scenarios: Motivation
• Research: Cross training helps all members of the team
― Shared mental models
― Could lead to Improved Shared Situation Awareness
Integrated Warning Team Scenarios: Increasing Team
SATell me and I forget. Teach me and I remember. Involve me and I learn. -- Benjamin Franklin
• Every NWS forecaster: 2 to 4 simulations per year.
• EMs: Regular Exercises (small and large scale)
• Few Integrated warningTeam exercises.
Integrated Warning Team Scenarios: Examples
• Full IWT scenario• Natl Severe Weather
Workshops• Natl Hurricane Conference• 3 rooms: synchronized
simulations w/ WES, FasTrac, OK-FIRST/NC-FIRST “Lite“
• NWSChat, SA display, TV, Vote
• One IWT component, “fake” others• Natl Hydrologic Warning
Council• Assoc. of State Floodplain
Managers Conference
Distributed and Collaborative Simulations
Focused on Human Factors and Decision-Support
Other Gov’t Decision Makers
WFO LZK
WFO SGFWFO LSX
WFO PAH
Paducah EOC
NWSTDFacilitator(s)
• Collaborative simulations and interagency exercises: partnerships, teamwork and decision support
• Intraoffice and interoffice simulations• Focus on teamwork and other social and human factors issues
Wash. Co. EOC
NCEP & RFCs
Click to edit Master title styleProposed Simulation Levels
(J. Zeitler/EWX and K. Van Speybroeck/SMG)
• Level 0: Training, Professional Development, EOC Visits, NIMS/ICS
• Level 1: Developmental Simulation– Verification of plans, procedures, equipment – possibly
segmented– Can serve as pre-training for Level 2
• Level 2: Internal Simulation (local participation)– 1-2 Forecasters training, 1-4 hours duration– Local Simulation Supervisor– Not focused on “training/learning” but working out the
kinds before real-time ops
• Level 3: Train with local decision makers– Use available (local) partners, 1-2 forecasters– Local simulation supervisor or from neighboring forecast
office– 4-8 hour duration– Opportunity to interact with decision-maker
Click to edit Master title styleProposed Simulation Levels
(J. Zeitler/EWX and K. Van Speybroeck/SMG)
• Level 4: Full WFO Team/Partners– WFO shift team with partners– Play the scenario through to completion– Use “real” team members in their roles
• Level 5: FEMA Table top style (WFO Team/multiple agencies/ROC-SRH)– Full Team (customers, WFO team, SRH ROC, EOC, kitchen sink)– Could be multi-day (FEMA Tabletop with WFO spinning their
training into FEMA big picture)– Use all available bodies and any additional that can be loaned– Long fuse planning required– Major time/resource requirements
Examples: Precursor Training
• Residence• Distance
• Synchronous• Asynchronous
• Human Factors Concepts• Teamwork• Communication• Leadership
• NWSTC• COMET/Virtual
Classroom• FDTB• WDTB• VISIT• Others
Z&VS: Level 0
Examples: Intraoffice Simulations
WFO SGF• Sectorization• Teamwork / Workload
Redistribution
Both localized to SGF
WFO SGF
Localized to SGF Localized to LSX
• Service hand-off/coordination
• Forecast collaboration
All simulations designed to fulfill specific learning or performance objectives to apply human factors
concepts in real-world contexts.
Z&VS: Level 1-2
Examples: Interoffice Simulations
WFO TOP • Backup Service Drills• Service hand-off
(multi-CWA events)• Forecast collaboration
WFO EAX
SPC
• Watch By County Collaboration
Z&VS: Level 2+
Examples: Nationally Facilitated Simulations
• Drills on National Policy Changes (e.g., storm based warnings)
• Teamwork and other “soft skills”• “Cross-pollinate” local WFO best practices throughout
the NWS.
WFO LZK
WFO SGFWFO LSX
WFO PAH
WDTB/FDTB/NWSTC
Localization: same or individual WFOsFacilitator: human factors expertise
Z&VS: Level 2+
Click to edit Master title styleExamples: Regionally Facilitated Simulations
• Drills on Regional Policy Changes • Regional collaboration• Large multi-CWA events like hurricanes, ice storms,
widespread floods
NHC
WFO MOBWFO LIX
WFO LCH
SR ROC
SR ROC
Z&VS: Level 2+
Click to edit Master title styleExamples: Interagency
Simulations• Decision Support• Weather Support for EM
Exercises• Partnerships• Polish Communication Skills• Practice Collaboration prior
to Real Events (e.g., FEMA)• Likely to reveal real issues
that need addressing.
WFO PAH
Paducah EOC
Wash Co. EOC
• AWIPS-2 “Thin Client”• Web Page populated by
AWIPS-2 micro-engine during simulation
Z&VS: Level 3-5
Moving Towards Distributed and Collaborative Simulations
• Science and Technology – single workstation (current capability)
• Human Factors • Single workstation (limited human factors capability) • Multiple workstations (required for situational human
factors training)
WES 2Bridge(new)
WES 2Bridge Lite(existing +monitors)
• Intra-WFO teamwork & collaboration in warning situations(FY11)
WES 2Bridge
WES 2 WES 2centrally managed, every WFO, NC and RFC; (new machines)
(FY12)
SA Display
• Team SA• more immersive
(FY13)
WES 2Bridge Lite
• Collaborative andcentrally facilitatedsimulations
Internet
*note: improvements are cumulative each year
Goal: Fully Distributive & Collaborative
End-State (FY 14-15)
• Collaborative simulations– Human Factors focus– Neighboring WFOs (ISC and backup)– Training Community* instructors– NWS: WFOs, RFCs, NCEP, CWSUs– NWS and I-Mets– NWS and warning partners (EM/media)– NWS and other partners
Local WES
• Local Needs– Case development– Data review– Research– Science Training– Technology Training– Some Human Factors
DecisionSupportServicesSA Display
Internet
Central WES Central WES
Thin Clients
Audio/Video(e.g. skype)
Social Networks
*Training Community = COMET, FDTB, NWSTC, VISIT, WDTB, etc.
Human Resources Impacts
• Training community instructors to develop and facilitate centrally delivered simulations– Requires expertise in human factors and social science– Branches, Regions, SOOs, SMEs
• Training staff to assist SOOs in case creation• Workshops: Facilitation and Application of Human
Factors to Simulations and Operations —SOOs, WCMs and other focal points
1. Collaboration2. Communication & Collaboration
• Team Building (Internal)
Main Impacts and Culture Shifts
• Team Building (Stakeholders)3. Time Availability
Operational AWIPS-2 Configuration(Simplified)
EDEX Server
PX DX
database
NAS:HDF
LX
CAVE
LDM
CP
WES-2 Bridge Isolated Simulation Model
EDEX Server
WES 2 Bridge
Software
CAVE
WES2Plug-in
ed
ex.a
lerts
no
tificatio
n we
s.time
synch
ron
izatio
n
database
HDF
WES 2 Bridge
WES-2 Distributed Simulations
Messaging mechanism to synchronize one CAVE with WES-2 permits synchronization of multiple CAVEs – even on multiple machines!
TESTED
WESSL-2 (Seeking New Name)
• Exploit Geospatial-enabled database capabilities
• Situation Awareness Display• Automated Guidance & Evaluation Tools
― Comparison with expert solutions― Key Information Overlooked: Pause Simulation― Performance Statistics
• Decision/Weight Ranking Tools
Future Plans:
Conclusion
Distributed and Collaborative Simulations:• Help solve unmet needs from the past 20+
years• Address evolving & reveal emerging needs
for next 5+ years
Initial 5-Year Strategic Plan (FY11 - FY15)
Hardware/Software Development, Deployment, and Upgrades
Staffing for Technical and Instructional Developers
Staff Time & Buy-in for Forecasters and Management
Four Waypoints to Arrive at the Destination: