A rizona S tate U niversity Demographic Reality Who are these Children? Eugene Garcia Arizona State University.

Arizona State University

Demographic Reality

Who are these Children?

Eugene GarciaArizona State University

Changing U.S. Cities: Census 2000

For the first time, ½ of the nation’s 100 largest cities are home to more Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and other minorities than Whites.

The vast majority of American cities – 71 of the top 100 - - lost white residents

White, N/H residents are now a minority of the total population in the 100 largest urban centers

New York Times on the web, 4/30/01

U.S. Population Growth (April 1, 2000 – July 1, 2003)

4.6

9.4

1.8 1.6 1.40.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

Total U.S. Hispanic White,Non-

Hispanic

Black Asian AmIndian

(Million

(Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, June 2004)

U.S. Population Projections

U.S. Population Projections2000 - 2007

42.2%

33.3%

18.9%

11.2% 9.9% 8.8%4.0%

Hispa

nic

Asian

Am Ind

ian

Black

Mul

tirac

ial

Tota

l

Whi

te N

/ H

The Selig Center, University of Georgia, 2000

U.S. Population Projections2007 (millions)

306.1

255.9

50.2 38.514.1 2.9

Total White N/ H Hispanic Black Asian Am Indian

The Selig Center, University of Georgia, 2002

U.S. MINORITY POPULATION Growth, 1990 - 2009(in millions)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1990 2000 2004 2009

American Indian

Asian

Hispanic

African American

(Source: The Selig Center for Economic Growth, 2004)

Percent Distribution of the U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity

2000 to 2050

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

White, Non-HispanicHispanic

Black

Asian

Am. Indian

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, p. 25-1130, Table I, CPS Report, April 1999

U.S. Fertility Projections (2025)

U.S. Bureau of Census, Population Projections for States by Age, Sex, Race & Hispanic Origin, October 1996

2.4

3.0

2.11.8 1.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

White,Non-

Hispanic

Asian AmericanIndian

Black Hispanic

Fer

tili

ty R

ate

U.S. Population Projection: Median Age(2000 and 2025)

29.833.8

43.238.6

28.5

26.6

30.6 32.4

36.935.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

Hispanic Native

American

Black Asian White, Non-

Hispanic

(years

)

2000

2025

(Source: American Demographics, August 2003)

Years

U.S. K-12 Enrollment Trends

&

Projections

U.S. Grades K – 12 Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity

October 1972-1998

0

10

20

30

40

50

1972 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998

Percentage

OtherHispanicBlack

The Condition of Education 2000 in Brief, U.S. Department of Education

Hispanics will make up 33%

of the U.S. PreK-12

population by 2025.

Hispanic, Univ. of Georgia, December 2002

U.S. Classrooms: Projected Student Composition: Ages 5-17

62%

38%

56%

44%

46%

54%

0%

50%

100%

2005 2020 2040

Majority Minority

Census, 2000

U.S. Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollments1993-94 (actual) through 2007-08 (projected)

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

American Indian

Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door, December 2003


1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000

2,400,000

Asian



6,200,000

6,400,000

6,600,000

6,800,000

7,000,000

7,200,000

7,400,000

7,600,000

Black



24,500,000

25,000,000

25,500,000

26,000,000

26,500,000

27,000,000

White, Non-Hispanic



4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

Hispanic



400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1997-98

1999-00

2001-02

2003-04

2005-06

2007-08

American Indian

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000

2,400,000

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1997-98

1999-00

2001-02

2003-04

2005-06

2007-08

Asian

6,200,000

6,400,000

6,600,000

6,800,000

7,000,000

7,200,000

7,400,000

7,600,000

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1997-98

1999-00

2001-02

2003-04

2005-06

2007-08

Black

24,500,000

25,000,000

25,500,000

26,000,000

26,500,000

27,000,000

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1997-98

1999-00

2001-02

2003-04

2005-06

2007-08

White, Non-Hispanic

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1997-98

1999-00

2001-02

2003-04

2005-06

2007-08

Hispanic


Immigrant and Native Children Enrolled in K-12 Schooling in US: 1970-2000 (in thousands)

K-12 Enrollment

Year Children of Immigrants*

Children of Native Parents

Total K-12 Enrollment

Percentage of Immigrant

Enrollment in Total K-12 Population

Foreign-born (1st generation)

U.S.-Born (2nd

generation)

1970 770 (24.8%) 2,334 (75.2%) 45,676 48,780 6.4%

1980 1,506 (32.2%) 3,169 (67.8%) 41,621 46,296 10.1%

1990 1,817 (31.6%) 3,926 (68.4%) 35,523 41,266 13.9%

1995 2,307 (29.2%) 5,590 (70.8%) 41,451 49,348 16.0%

2000 2,700 (25.7%) 7,800 (74.3%) 44,200 54,700 20.1%*Percentages of total children of immigrant populationSources: Fix, M., & Passel, J. (2003). U.S. immigration: Trends and implications for schools. Washington DC, The Urban Institute.Van Hook, J., & Fix, M. (2000). A Profile of the Immigrant Student Population. In J. R. DeVelasco, M. Fix and T. Clewell (Eds.), Overlooked and underserved: Immigrant children in U.S. secondary schools. Washington D.C.: The Urban Institute Press.

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23

24

25

26

27

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A rizona S tate U niversity Demographic Reality Who are these Children? Eugene Garcia Arizona State University.

Documents

department of education

population projections

higher education

secondary enrollments

total population

public elementary

college door

minority population