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A REVISIONIST CHRONOLOGY
OF PAPERS BY T. A. HIERONYMUS
A Consistency of Biases
edited by T. A. Hieronymus Office for Futures and Options Research University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
The Office for Futures and Options Research (OFOR] at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign depends on individuals and firms within the futures industry for financial support. If you are interested in learning more about the programs and activities of OFOR and how you can participate, support and make a difference, contact
Raymond M. Leuthold, Professor and Director Office for Futures and Options Research 314MumfordHall 1301 West Gregory Drive University of Illinois Urbana, Illinois 61801 (217)333-1811
It is the grandparent of futures texts and is footnoted in practically all currently pub
lished futures-market textbooks. This book stood for nearly twenty years as the only
available textbook on futures theory and practice.
Most readers will not have seen many of the writings reproduced in this publication. Several deal with agricultural policy, especially policy related to soybeans. You will find that Professor Hieronymus began educating Congress about futures markets and speculation as early as 1957 (paper #10), and he repeated that education process with testimonies in 1966 (#24), 1972 (#29), 1973 (#32), 1974 (#34), and 1984 (#41). He did not avoid controversy and even relished it. Examples include a paper at a session on welfare at the annual meeting of the American Farm Economics Association in 1955 (#9). He told the Chicago Board of Trade to get its act together in 1959 (#15) and told Midwest elevators to "get good or get out" in 1964 (#20). He gave speeches on controversial topics in New York in 1962 (#18) and 1970 (#27), advocated cattle futures before a reluctant meat industry in 1964 (#21), led numerous discussions on soybean price and production policy (for example, #7 in 1954), and repeatedly called for the government to stay out of agricultural markets (for example, #17 in 1961 and #18 in 1962). Research ideas run through many papers, often under a common theme, such as calling for research on the role and quality of speculation in 1966 (#23), 1984 (#41), and 1993 (#43). Some papers are basic to futures markets, such as how to hedge (#16 in 1959), futures markets and financial equity (#28 in 1971), definition of hedging (#36 in 1976), designation of delivery points (#37 in 1976), and a definition of manipulation (#38 in 1977).
Professor Hieronymus is clearly a defender of free markets and an outspoken supporter of capitalism and of the futures exchanges. He, perhaps more clearly than anyone else, defines the important role of speculators in directing economic activity. Expression of these beliefs appeared in 1950 (#1) and 1951 (#3), continued through many papers, and are well summarized in 1978 (#39). According to Professor Hieronymus, markets provide the best guide for decision making, and government intervention in price formation is undesirable and counterproductive. The wisdom of the marketplace exceeds that of the government. And, so you know there are no hidden trading secrets, he clearly states that markets work well and that price forecasting and successful speculation are very difficult (#33 in 1973 and #39 in 1978).
You will find these papers challenging, interesting, and even entertaining. They are a unique set and truly vintage Tom Hieronymus.
It is clear that Tom received support from his family over these years, especially from his wife, Jimmie. I wish to thank Tom for making these papers available for an OFOR publication. Special thanks go to Stephanie Spaulding for much of the typing but also for managing these manuscripts as they passed through many hands in the preparation process. Also to be thanked are Nancy Nichols and Francine Weinbaum, who provided valuable editing and proofreading, and Dawn Hachenski, who created the design.
The first run-through took out about three-quarters as repetitive or embarrassing. Over the years I had received a lot of attention for price outlook particularly that of soybeans; being conversant about the current situation was useful in opening a lot of doors. But outlook statements are loaded with numerical detail and are timely rather than timeless. So they went without being graded right or wrong. My best guess is that it was about 50-50, which is par for the course. As for the rest, there was a lot of repetition; the audiences were diverse, from fellow academicians, to government, to legislators, to courts, but mainly to commodity tradespeople. The geography of presentation was widespread—as far north as Dawson Creek, British Columbia, as far south as Lima, Peru, as far west as Zheng Zhou, China, and as far east as Bucharest, Romania. Most were within the United States with a heavy emphasis on the Midwest.
A second run took out about half of the remaining material, primarily on the basis of redundancy. What remains? For the most part, they are papers that were fun to write and the occasions of presentation that were particularly interesting. They have not been edited or corrected (I tried to be at least reasonably honest), but substantial sections have been purged from many to reduce bulk and increase readability. They are arranged chronologically, so, in a sense, it is a career history. The time span from first to last is forty-three years. The activities that this collection represents were an interesting part of my career.
I have no illusion that anyone will read an appreciable amount of this stuff, but I
rest in peace knowing that it is now part of other people's stuff.