A process for resolving conflicts within water-food-energy systems stressed by climate change Group 4. The NCAR Nexuses.

A process for resolving conflicts

withinwater-food-energy systems stressed by

climate change

Group 4. The NCAR Nexuses

Context

Clarify the decision context

Define Objectives &

Measures

Create Alternatives

Estimate Consequences of Alternatives

Evaluate Trade Offs Among Alternatives

Implement & Monitor

Decision Support Framework: Structured Decision Making

California is in a Major Drought

Implications of Drought

• Less water rain during the growing season – higher demand for irrigation and pumping of ground water. Both of which require more energy and are expensive.

• Loss of Hydroelectric power production, which was 14% of total instate production in 2012.

• Power plants reduce production because water in lakes/rivers/estuaries too hot to be used for cooling.

• New player in the mix: Hydraulic fracturing. • People in conflict

Water use by Sector

• 50% Environmental, 40% Agricultural, 10% urban.• In areas where water is shared by all three sectors:

33% Environmental, 53% Agricultural, 14% Urban.

Information Sources

• Population 2.75x• Food production: 4.2x • Rice 4x; Wheat 10x;

Pulses+coarse: < 2x• How was it achieved:• Extensification agricultural

land area• Intensification of land

cropped • More fertilizers, better

seeds, irrigation

Trends in India: 1950-2000

Irrigation in India

The Problem in India (Gujarat and Punjab)1. Unsustainable use of groundwater in agriculture in Gujarat, India (epicenter).

- Danger of salt water contamination due to low water tables- Farmers continually need to dig deeper wells and buy more powerful pumps.

2. Financial burden of the state

- Electricity is subsidized to farmers to pump up water. - The cost of pumping deep water can today be on the same order of

magnitude as the farmers’ income. - With current policies agriculture is a net loss for the state of Gujarat.

3. Energy insecurity- Due to overuse of electricity for pumping water the power supply is, or may

be in the future, subject to inferior reliability. Voltage fluctuations may damage motors and other equipment.

- Situation expected to worsen in the future due to: Climate changeRising population

4. Land degradation from water erosion

System Identification (scoping process - what’s the situation? Who is involved?)

System -Conduct analysis of current energy and water policies -Conduct analysis of local hydrology -Analyze how water and energy is used in the state today and how it is expected to be used in the future. -Study current climate and expected climate change

Stakeholders

Method: snowball method (cast a wide net. due diligence to include everyone) include social anthropologists

Stakeholders in Gujarat are: - Government: Agriculture and Cooperation Department, Energy and Petrochemicals Department, Narmada and Water Resources‚ Water Supply and Kalpsar Department, Local community/governments - Non-government: Farmers, Agribusiness e.g. FieldFresh, Power companies, Owners/representatives from local factories

Roles and jobs/ next steps

• Lisa – social toolbox• Liz physical toolbox• Brooke – California, US• Rachel – California, US• Emma – Gujarat, India• Julio – Gujarat, India• Prasanth – Gujarat, India

Extra Material The Question: Can we increase farmer incomes without further depleting (ideally maintaining constant) GW?

Possible Approaches we want to Explore:

1.Incentive to reduce use; 2.Make farmer direct beneficiary of reduced water use3.Provide information/measurement tools4.Use historical Data as baseline of electricity5.Compensate for “reduction” below baseline6. Ensure revenue neutral scheme for govt.

What are the lessons, opportunities and challenges?

• Groundwater is precious –Priority for drinking-Use as a drought buffer, not as primary agricultural resource–Improve surface water storage, distribution

•Dramatic reform needed in agricultural sector–Energy/water pricing (could be dynamic based on conditions)–Crop selection and Market Access

•Seasonal Forecasts of Climate and Markets•Optimization of area allocation and location per crop• Government and Private Sector Procurement Supply

Chain–Water Saving Technologies and Irrigation Practices

•Real Time Weather forecasts•Yield Enhancement while reducing fertilizer, pesticide

and energy use–Corporate-Public Extension Program in support of Supply Chain