A PRESENTATION DURING THE AFRICAN DISSEMINATION WORKSHOP ON INNOVATIVE APPLICATION OF ICTS IN ADDRESSING WATER - RELATED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, 12TH DECEMBER, 2014, AT MAKERERE UNIVERSITY, KAMPALA. BY FRANCIS ONYANGO ODUOR Bsc. Agric Econ (Egerton), Msc. Agric Econ (Moi)
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A PRESENTATION DURING THE AFRICAN DISSEMINATION WORKSHOP ON INNOVATIVE APPLICATION OF ICTS IN ADDRESSING WATER - RELATED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, 12TH.
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A PRESENTATION DURING THE AFRICAN DISSEMINATION WORKSHOP ON INNOVATIVE APPLICATION OF ICTS IN ADDRESSING WATER - RELATED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, 12TH DECEMBER, 2014, AT MAKERERE UNIVERSITY, KAMPALA.
BY FRANCIS ONYANGO ODUOR
Bsc. Agric Econ (Egerton), Msc. Agric Econ (Moi)
Smallholder adaptation strategies are more autonomous
The adaptation strategies employed are at sub-optimal levels i.e. MB ≠ MC
Growth of the Kenya’s economy correlates to growth and development in agriculture
Smallholder farmers provide 75% of the labour force and 75% of the market output produce (Alila & Atieno 2006)
However, climatic variability affects smallholders’ efforts
Smallholders invest to adapt to climate variability
Economic analysis of climate change adaptation strategies of agriculture.
Deltaic wetland ecosystem Prone to drought and floods
Farmers invest to reduce impacts of the shocks
The framework for analyzing the cost and benefit of climate change adaptation
Global mean Temperature
Cost without adaptation
Residual damage Net benefit of adaptation
Total cost of climate change after adaptation
Gross benefit of adaptation
Cost of adaptation + Residual damage
Source: Stern (2006)
FINDING #1: Agricultural adaptation strategies are autonomous
Adaptation strategies
Soil & Water Mgt Off-farm activities
Ratooning
Constraints to agricultural adaptation strategies
Determinants agricultural adaptation strategies
Characteristics of household head Odds Ratio P>|Z|
Sex 1.90 0.049
Age 2.25 0.008
Household size 1.59 0.047
Farm size 1.15 0.015
Number of years lived in the village 0.91 0.059
Education level 1.26 0.004
Income 0.99 0.026
Logit regression of socio-economic determinants
FINDING #2: Costs and Benefits of agricultural adaptation strategies
Cost Dimension Value (USD Million)
Cost without adaptation (Gross damages) 43
Adaptation Cost 6
Gross Benefit (Damage avoided cost) 21
Residual Damages 22
Total cost of climate adaptation 28
Net benefit 15
NPV (50years; 2072)
2% 42
15% 17,000
Marginal Cost (MC) 6
Marginal benefit (MB) 21
ROI [(MB-MC)/MC] 250%
FINDING #2: Costs and Benefits of agricultural adaptation strategies
Optimal agricultural adaptation ?
Marginal Costs
Marginal Benefits
Adaptation Effort (Cost)
E*E
R*
R
Improved investment on adaptation initiatives is needed
Increased budgetary allocations to climate change adaptation initiatives / projects(a) Investment in climate information provision(b) Research and development
Promotion of affordable agricultural credits(a) Community- Based Adaptation initiatives like ROSCAs (b) Credit guarantee systems