A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES PLC NOVEMBER 2010
A PRESENTATION BY ST. MODWEN PROPERTIES PLC
NOVEMBER 2010
1
INTRODUCTION
• Does the market understand St Modwen ?
• Reinforcing the positive messages of the 30 September IMS
Contents
• Income-producing portfolio (£501m)
• Residential land (£379m)
• Commercial land (£142m)
• Development pipeline
• Financing
• Opportunities
INCOME-PRODUCING PORTFOLIO
2
• Book Value £501m; 1,347 acres
• Rent roll of £45.9m, and growing.
• High level of churn, but reducing vacancies: • 222 new lettings / renewals in 10 months to 30 Sep 2010;
• Securing £6.3m of annual rent over 970,000 sq ft of space;
• Incentives total £2.5m (6.1% of total rent secured)
• Voids now 11.7% (equivalent to rent of £6.7m)
• Affordable rents on flexible leases; rent / ft not falling, but incentives increased
since 2008/9.
• Diversified rent roll (1,650 tenants); largest tenants are sound covenants; top 20
tenants comprise 32% of rent roll.
• Rental income also diversified by sector: Industrial 52%; Retail 39%; Offices 9%.
INCOME-PRODUCING PORTFOLIO
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• Investment properties at high yields and low affordable rents
• High proportion in value-add category. Large element of value underpinned by land, not held for investment but for redevelopment i.e. very different historic and future characteristics from IPD
Income producing properties as at May 2010 (including Group share of JVs)
Equivalent Net Initial Typical rent/sqft
May 10 Nov 09 May 10 Nov 09
Retail 9.0% 9.9% 7.2% 8.4% £20 - £45 (Zone A)
Offices 8.7% 8.7% 6.7% 5.7% £10 – £20
Industrial 9.2% 9.4% 7.2% 8.4% £1 - £5
Portfolio 9.1% 9.5% 7.1% 8.0%
GROSS RENT ROLL - Annualised
4
YTD 2010
£m
43.0
0.8
43.8
5.1
1.7 6.8
(4.6)
(0.1)
45.9
Full year 2009
£m
Opening rent roll 43.2
Acquisitions / (disposals) (2.2)
41.0
7.5
Rent reviews
New lettings
0.3 7.8
Vacations (5.2)
Tenant administrations (0.6)
43.0Closing rent roll
Avonmouth – New Earth SolutionsCoed DarcyWythenshawe
THE HOPPER – RESIDENTIAL LAND
6
(as at Oct 2010)
Acres Units
With planning recognition
- Allocated in local plan or similar 254 5,385
- Resolution to grant 332 1,354
- Outline permission 496 11,938
- Detailed permission 32 1,070
1,114 19,747
No planning recognition 440 4,771
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL LAND 1,554 24,518
RESIDENTIAL LAND
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• Book carrying cost £379m; 1,554 acres
• ~20,000 consented plots, of which >3,700 in London and South East.
• Persimmon joint venture over 2,000 homes: • Access to skills / buying power of large, quality partner
• Underpins current land values
• Accelerates cash realisation from long-term hopper assets
• Expected end value >£300m
• Our share of additional profit ~£30m over 5 years
• May be extended into additional sites / JVs
• Sale in YTD of 29 acres, for £40.5m: • Confirms gradual re-emergence of a functioning market
• Underpins current land values
• St Modwen Homes on site at Wembley, Farnborough, Locking and Longbridge – targeted annual volume 200 units
RESIDENTIAL LAND
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• Total write-down since May 2007 peak - £71m
• End values per plot • London - £73k
• Other - £31k
• Changes / uncertainties in planning process make existing consents more valuable
Avonmouth – New Earth SolutionsCoed Darcy
Coed Darcy
Wembley Central
COMMERCIAL LAND
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• Book Value - £142m; 2,703 acres
• Large acreages at very low values; restriction on use is occupier demand, not value.
• Number of large pre-sold construction projects underway, completing 2010/11:
• Foodstores – Connah’s Quay (52,000 sq ft Morrisons)
• Public sector – Longbridge (250,000 sq ft) and Rugby (150,000 sq ft) colleges, and Manchester City Council offices in Wythenshawe (48,000 sq ft)
• Other – waste treatment and recycling facility at Avonmouth (300,000 sq ft)
• Remediation work continues at former BP sites • Risks now fully understood, contracts placed
• Steady stream of profits over next 12 months
• Once remediated, land carried at negligible value until alternative use identified and marshalled (eg Crayford and Baglan)
• Sale of Crayford for £5.5m
COMMERCIAL LAND
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• Opportunities arising from the hopper for delivery 2011/12
• Foodstores
• Hednesford; Longbridge (planning submitted and pre-let/sold)
• Great Homer St, Liverpool; Skelmersdale; Leegate; St Helens (in planning and occupier identified)
• Employment
• 110,000 sq ft for Siemens at Lincoln; 90,000 sq ft for Alstom at Rugby (terms agreed)
• Further enquiries: Nisbetts - Avonmouth; Converteam - Stoke; RSS - Sheffield; Reflex Nutrition – Woodingdean.
• Public sector – Swansea University second campus at Baglan Bay; hospital at Coed Darcy (in planning)
• Offices – Taunton.
• Leisure – hotel at Edmonton; Casino at Oldbury; leisure complex at Widnes
Avonmouth – New Earth Solutions
Bournville College, LongbridgeBournville College, Longbridge
Warwickshire College, Rugby
OPPORTUNITIES
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• Continue asset management progress, reduce voids and increase rent roll
• Valuations already at conservative levels (average yield 9.1% - May 2010): no
expectation of downwards correction
• Improving market conditions: foodstores; residential; international manufacturers
• Marshall schemes already in the Hopper, many of which already have planning
• Significant available firepower to fund development or acquisitions on right terms
• Reducing interest costs as hedges unwind; low future effective tax rates
Farnborough
Baglan BayBaglan Bay
VALUE DRIVERS 2011-2014
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• Residential
• House sales (Persimmon JV / St Modwen Homes)
• Land value increase
• Project MoDEL
£120m 60p/share
• Development pipeline
• See next slides £60m 30p
Total visible NAV increase 2011-2014 £180m 90p
Current consensus NAV Nov 2010 £420m 210p
DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE
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• Longbridge – Foodstore (85,000 sq ft); retail scheme (80,000 sq ft); hotel (75 beds)
• Hednesford – Tesco (85,000 sq ft) plus 40,000 sq ft retail scheme
• Crayford – sale of 13 acres of regenerated land
• Wythenshawe – Manchester city council offices; further 40,000 sq ft retail phase
• Skelmersdale – 70,000 sq ft foodstore plus 100,000 sq ft office
• Avonmouth – Nisbetts (125,000 sq ft)
• Quedgeley – Design and build 300,000 sq ft distribution warehouse
• Swansea – Swansea University campus
• Taunton – 50,000 sq ft office development
• Edmonton – Travel Lodge hotel and 20,000 sq ft retail redevelopment
• Elephant & Castle – Major refurbishment and extension
• Woodingdean – Reflex Nutrition (35,000 sq ft)
• Lincoln – 130,000 sq ft manufacturing facility for Siemens
• Birchley – Casino
• Widnes – ice rink; cinema; bowling alley; restaurants
• Stoke – 30,000 sq ft office for Bet365; 185,000 sq ft manufacturing facility for Converteam
• Great Homer St, Liverpool – 80,000 sq ft foodstore and further 50,000 sq ft retail
CASE STUDY - LONGBRIDGE
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• Longbridge Town Centre – £100m phase of regeneration of former MG Rover
car factory. Planning application to be submitted for town centre phase in Q4
2010:
• 85,000 sq ft food store – pre sold
• Additional 80,000 sq ft retail, comprising 24 shops and restaurants
• 75 bed hotel
• Town centre phase also anchored by Bournville College – pre-sold; under
construction; completion 2011; will house 10,000 students in 250,000 sq ft
campus.
• Housing – St Modwen Homes on site with 115 unit scheme. Persimmon to lodge
planning application for 300 homes.
Baglan BayLongbridge planLongbridge Town Centre
Longbridge Town Centre
CASE STUDY - HEDNESFORD
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• Planning granted.
• Site acquired with vacant possession in June 2011.
• Foodstore pre-sold to Tesco.
• Leisure element pre-sold.
Baglan BayHednesford Plan
FINANCING – STRONG BALANCE SHEET
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• Strong balance sheet (LTV 31%)
• Banking facilities being renewed / increased with no changes to terms & conditions (Headroom > £200m)
• Trading profit throughout downturn
• Return to profit before tax in 2010, with positive valuation results
• EPRA NAV of 233p => current share price discount of ~25%
SUMMARY BALANCE SHEET
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Property assets
Income-producing
Residential
Commercial
Borrowings
Other (net)
Net Assets
EPRA NAV per share
Net assets per share
Loan to value
May 2010
£m
501
379
142
(302)
(292)
428
233p
214p
31%
CONCLUSION
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• Managing income successfully
• Significant activity in residential land bank
• Good value creation via marshalling
Robust outlook for values
• Pipeline of future development opportunities gives confidence for future profits
Recommenced dividend at last set of results and intend to continue a
progressive dividend policy
• Strong balance sheet
APPENDICES
THE HOPPER
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Total acres
Developable
- Retail and leisure
- Employment
- Residential
- Unspecified
1999 2009 2010
3,239 9,468 9,760
105 433 399
702 2,735 2,828
652 1,564 1,554
- 872 883
1,459 5,604 5,664
• Employment land carried at £100k - £350k per acre
• Residential land written down to an end value equivalent to ~£450-500k per acre (£1.7m for NW London)
• Land carried at existing use value, with no recognition of value created by future changes of use
INCOME-PRODUCING PORTFOLIO
Top 20 tenants – annual rent (£m)
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Alstom Power Limited. 5.9
Nanjing Automobile Corporation (UK) Ltd. 1.5
Converteam UK Limited. 1.1
Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery Ltd. 1.0
Areva T & D (UK) Limited. 0.7
Blue Diamond UK Limited. 0.7
Paragon Automotive Services Limited. 0.6
Cranfield University. 0.6
Corus UK Limited. 0.6
Akcros Chemicals Limited. 0.5
Peacock's Stores Limited. 0.5
Palatial Leisure Limited. 0.4
Goodyear Dunlop Tyres (uk) Limited. 0.4
Wireless Data Services Ltd. 0.3
Knights Rail Services Ltd. 0.3
Iceland Foods Limited. 0.3
Blackburn with Darwen Primary Care Trust. 0.3
Romtech Limited. 0.3
Jet logistics Limited. 0.3
- -
RESULTS
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£8.3m
£17.4m
£10.1m
£20.1m
£26.7m
1p
233p
214p
£5.0m
£15.1m
H1
2010
H1 Full Year
2009 2009
TRADING PROFIT £6.8m £8.4m
Net rental income £17.1m £33.5m
Property profits £3.1m £7.6m
Market yield movements £(122.6)m £(149.1)m
Added value £25.0m £26.8m
Property valuations / NRV £(97.6)m £(122.3)m
PROFIT / (LOSS) BEFORE TAX £(98.3)m £(119.4)m
Dividend per share
EPRA NAV per share 231p* 219p
NAV per share 211p* 200p
(*adjusted for equity)
FINANCIAL RESOURCES - GROUP
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May 2010 Nov 2009 May 2009
Net debt £302m £319m £426m
Committed bank facilities £519m £519m £519m
Available undrawn facilities £217m £200m £93m
Gearing
Actual 70% 80% 133%
Covenant 175% 175% 175%
Actual including JVs (no covenant) 92% 106% 165%
Interest cover (excl. unrealised revaluations)
Actual 1.5x 1.7x 2.1x
Covenant 1.25x 1.25x 1.25x
Weighted ave interest rate 4.6% 5.0% 5.0%
% of debt fixed (excl. VSM) 102% 99% 73%
CURRENT BANKING FACILITIES (£m)
BANK GROUP VSM JVs EXPIRY
Lloyds / HBOS 140
13
80
Nov 12 & Aug 13
Mar 14
Sep 12
RBS 95
80
Nov 15
Sep 12
Barclays 84
38
Apr 12 & Sep 15
Mar 14
Bank of Ireland 50
40
Nov 14
Sep 12
HSBC 75 Jun 12
Fortis 38 Jun 12
Others 49
6
Nov 14
2019
Total Facilities 444 100 244
Net Debt May 10 251 51 190
% Hedged 102% 100% 76%
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