A Preliminary Analysis on Modeling Results Relevant to China from the International Emissions Scenarios Database Chen Ying ([email protected]) Research Centre for Sustainable Development (RCSD), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Beijing BASIC Workshop on Feb.18, 2006
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A Preliminary Analysis on Modeling Results Relevant to China from the International Emissions Scenarios Database Chen Ying ([email protected]) Research.
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A Preliminary Analysis on Modeling Results Relevant to China from the International Emissions Scenarios Database
Chen Ying ([email protected])Research Centre for Sustainable Development (RCSD),
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)Beijing BASIC Workshop on Feb.18, 2006
OutlineOverview of Emissions Scenarios Database
Analysis on Reference Scenarios
Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios
Conclusions: Gaps to be bridged
I. Overview of Emission Scenarios Database
StructureSources: 256Scenarios: 734Regions:
Variables:
Results: 1990-2100,
every 10 years
93668 records in total
China in the Countries Groupings
ChinaCPA= China+HK and other 5 countriesASIAP= CPA(7)+SAS(8)+PAS(19),
34 countries and regions
China ASIAP
CPA
China is 90%-95% of CPA, 50%-60% of
ASIAP
Models related to China 13 models developed since 1998
China (3): AIM/EMF16, RICE99, SGM99,
CPA(2): DNE21/98, IIASA/WEC98
ASIAP(8): 6 for SRES and 2 for pSRES and pSRES2001
AIM, ASF, IMAGE, MARIA, MESSAGE, MiniCAM, LDNE and WorldSCAN
Categories of models Top-down: CGE such as RICE99, SGM99 and WorldSCAN
Bottom-up: energy optimization model such as DNE21/98, LDNE and MESSAGE
Integrated Assessment: combining top-down and bottom-up modules, such as AIM/EMF16, MiniCAM
Scenarios developed: 85 reference + 111 policy
II. Analysis on Reference Scenarios
85 reference scenarios related to ChinaChina: 3 developed with 3 models
RI CE99- ref RI CE99-550DNE21/ 98- ref DNE21/ 98-550
Ref-high
Ref-low
sta-550
Burden-sharing Scheme550ppm, 2050 B2 A1B A1FI
Total reductions required in the world
11.2-9.9=1.3 16.4-10.2=6.2 23.5-10.7=12.8
ASIAP 4.1-3.8=0.3 5.9-3.8=2.1 10.1-3.9=6.2
EFSU 0.2 0.47 1.62
OECD 0.2 1.48 2.31
ROW 0.5 2.15 2.63
ASIAP’s share in the world 23% 34% 49%
ASIAP’s reduction rate 7.3% 36% 61%
Feasibility of Policy Scenarios for Developing
Countries Analysis on the driving forces
550, 2050,
pSRESGDP loss PE decrease
Reduction of Coal use
Coal/PE
B2 -0.4% -0.4% - 18
A1B -1.7% -22.6% -51.5% 15
A1FI -2.9% -31% -87% 8
IV. Conclusions: Gaps to be Bridged
Compared to mature economy of developed countries, the driving forces of emissions for developing countries are more likely to be fluctuated with high uncertainty.
The existing modeling results tend to systematically overestimate the increase of emissions for developing countries. Many general policies in developing countries have clear implications on climate change mitigation.
The feasibility and policy implications of stabilization scenarios need to be clarified.
The burden sharing schemes implied in stabilization scenarios takes no considerations on some important principles, such as equity and basic needs.