A partnership of - A partnership of - the State, CSIRO, and the Bureau of the State, CSIRO, and the Bureau of Meteorology, Meteorology, formed by the Western Australian formed by the Western Australian Government Government to support informed decision-making, to support informed decision-making, on climate variability and change in WA. on climate variability and change in WA. [email protected]Indian O cean Clim ate Initiative Indian O cean Clim ate Initiative Lessons from living in the changing south-west climate Personal impressions
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A partnership of -A partnership of -
the State, CSIRO, and the Bureau of Meteorology,the State, CSIRO, and the Bureau of Meteorology,formed by the Western Australian Government formed by the Western Australian Government to support informed decision-making, to support informed decision-making, on climate variability and change in WA.on climate variability and change in WA.
Indian Ocean Climate InitiativeIndian Ocean Climate Initiative
Nature of issues posed byNature of issues posed byour changing climateour changing climate
Climate change in this region is a present and significant reality which includes issues which have been quietly developing for decades
Some aspects of change (and impact) are insidious – hidden in natural variability (the water experience 70s to now). Surprises have also occurred (steps rather than trends).
Although some uncertainty is formidable it is not uniform or universal –uncertainty of state and trend vary with climate elements and detail required
Some key uncertainties relate to the present as well as the future climate
Actions and planning horizons have become more short term than under previous conditions (muddling through)
Current priority issues relate to base conditions more than extremes
Past, present and future climate are all relevant to decision-making
Issues are socio-politically complex as well as technically complex – they force new concepts of sustainability and create painful public decision-making issues
Indian Ocean Climate InitiativeIndian Ocean Climate Initiative
Research, information, communication -Research, information, communication -the pre-requisites to “informed adaptation”the pre-requisites to “informed adaptation”
Information demand from decision-makers relates to present more than to the future (survival) but past, present and future are all relevant
Sustained, strategically driven regional research and communication is needed to keep pace with evolving climate and science
Information needs vary - some adaptation can proceed on qualitative or semi-quantitative information, but some needs quantitative judgements
Regional climate science must be issue driven It is now opportune to consider developing more complete, issue
driven regional research, encompassing terrestrial, marine and coastal climates
With the many sectors affected and the complexity of the problem, effective and strategic communication also needs to develop.
Indian Ocean Climate InitiativeIndian Ocean Climate Initiative
Key ObservationsKey Observations
Climate change is now causing both automatic impacts and actionable vulnerability in SWWA. It will grow as a dominant issue through this century and may include surprises.
Vulnerabilities are diverse, with regionally unique characteristics. They vary greatly (in scale and timing) with climate aspect, sector and mode of impact, and warrant systematic review
Decision frameworks, analysis and debate need to re-align to a non-stationary, uncertain regime. Amended thinking will involve much debate e.g. re-defining ‘Sustainability’
Uncertainty is not uniform. Some elements show clear trends and some very uncertain. Many decision makers only need ‘confidence’ in directional trends.
Issue-driven science support has helped decision-making but should embrace the full breadth of terrestrial, marine, and coastal aspects of climate change and be continuously updating.
Present, past and future climate regimes are all relevant Unilateral, multi-lateral and regulatory responses are all relevant but, for empowerment,
require different scales of maturity in public awareness Communication must engage the attention of a wide community base, not just those with
science background. Uncertainty, fact and contentiousness need better differentiation