A ‘no-forecast’ price forecast: forward prices versus actuals. ALUMINIUM. COPPER. ZINC. The charts compare LME 15-month prices at end-October with cash prices 15 months later. Analysts’ forecasts of metal prices. ALUMINIUM. COPPER. LEAD. ZINC. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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A ‘no-forecast’ price forecast: forward prices versus actuals
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
End October
$/t
on
ne
15 month forward price
Cash price 15 months later
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
End October
$/to
nn
e
15 month forward price
Cash price 15 months later
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
End October
$/to
nn
e
15 month forward price
Cash price 15 months later
The charts compare LME 15-month prices at end-October with cash prices15 months later
ALUMINIUM COPPER
ZINC
Analysts’ forecasts of metal prices
Forecasts by analysts published in the LME Ringsider in October for future years
There are probable world mine reserves of more than 100 Mt of copper, or enough for 80 years at the 1933 rate of consumption. All present knowledge indicates that in spite of the most extensive improvements in technology which can be expected, the second half of this reserve will cost a good deal more to extract than the first half. If consumption should expand at a rate approaching that of 1830 to 1930, there promises to be an acute shortage within a generation. (Skelton, 1934)
‘Ultimately recoverable’ reserves of copper 1930-2010
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
Cumulative output from 1726 Remaining reserves
Forecasts of copper’s intensity of use
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
Chase Brook Hunt Actual Chase Brook Hunt Actual
Ind
ex
nu
mb
ers
19
80
= 1
00
1985 1990United States
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Chase Brook Hunt Actual Chase Brook Hunt Actual
Ind
ex
nu
mb
ers
19
80
= 1
00
1985 1990Japan
Sources: Chase Econometrics’ World Copper Outlook, March 1984. Brook Hunt evidence to the US International Trade Commission, May 1984. WBMS and IMF for actuals.
Refined zinc usage: a 1982 forecast
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1980 2000 forecast 2000 actual
'00
0 t
on
ne
s
Western Europe(+0.6%)
Rest of World(-0.03%)
Sources: ILZSG, SRI Metallic Minerals Programme 1982
Refined zinc usage: details
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1980 2000 forecast 2000 actual
'00
0 t
on
ne
s
Eastern Countries(+31.2%)
Other countries(-17.2%)
Latin America(+62.2%)
Japan(+32.7%)
North America(-14.9%)
Western Europe(+0.6%)
Sources: ILZSG, SRI Metallic Minerals Programme 1982