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A NEW BAYESIAN CHRONOLOGY FOR POSTCLASSIC AND COLONIAL OCCUPA- TION AT XALTOCAN, MEXICO Lisa Overholtzer Department of Anthropology, Wichita State University, 1845 Fairmount St., Wichita, KS 67260, USA. Email: [email protected]. ABSTRACT. This article proposes a new four-phase chronology for Postclassic and colonial occupation at Xaltocan, Mex- ico, using Bayesian statistical modeling of a suite of 54 radiometric dates. Of these, 46 samples come from recent extensive H[FDYDWLRQV RI VHDOHG VWUDWL¿HG KRXVHKROG GHSRVLWV IDFLOLWDWLQJ LPSURYHG XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI VDPSOH FRQWH[W DQG UHVXOWLQJ LQ a more accurate chronology. The timing of the adoption of major ceramic wares at the site and intrasite level is outlined and contextualized within broad, regional phases. These results are particularly valuable given recent research that repudiates D XQLIRUP FKURQRORJLFDO IUDPHZRUN IRU WKH %DVLQ RI 0H[LFR LQ WKH 3RVWFODVVLF SHULRG DQG LQGLFDWHV LQVWHDG D VLJQL¿FDQW amount of chronological overlap and regional variation in the use of distinct ceramic types. INTRODUCTION Despite the vast and detailed knowledge available for the Postclassic period in the Basin of Mexico, DUFKDHRORJLFDO FKURQRORJLHV IRU WKDW RFFXSDWLRQ²VSHFL¿FDOO\ RQHV WKDW GR QRW UHO\ RQ PRQXPHQWDO LQVFULSWLRQV RU FRORQLDO KLVWRULFDO GRFXPHQWV²UHPDLQ SRRUO\ GH¿QHG $V -HIIUH\ 3DUVRQV (OL]DEHWK %UXP¿HO DQG 0DU\ +RGJH 3DUVRQV HW DO FRQFOXGHG LQ WKH PRVW UHFHQW WUHDWPHQW RI &R\- otlatelco and Aztec I ceramic wares, “We are still a long way from understanding the spatial-tempo- ral distribution of [these types] in central Mexico, much less the sociopolitical and socioeconomic implications of this distribution.” This meager grasp is partially due to the apparent complexity of these distributions, as well as the small number of existing radiocarbon determinations and a lack RI GHWDLOHG FRQWH[WXDO LQIRUPDWLRQ IRU WKRVH GDWHV 7KLV VLWXDWLRQ LV H[HPSOL¿HG DW WKH VLWH RI ;DO- tocan, capital of the pre-Aztec Otomí city-state, and subsequently subject to the successive Aztec and Spanish colonial empires. With over 20 years of archaeological research at Xaltocan, the site chronology is better understood than most, and yet the existing chronological framework relies on 10 14 & GHWHUPLQDWLRQV IURP WHVW SLWV H[FDYDWHG LQ FP DUELWUDU\ OHYHOV IRU WKH GHOLQHDWLRQ RI IRXU SKDVHV VSDQQLQJ QHDUO\ D PLOOHQQLXP )RUWXQDWHO\ LQYHVWLJDWRUV KDYH QRZ FDUULHG RXW VXI¿FLHQWO\ H[WHQVLYH DQG GHWDLOHG H[FDYDWLRQV RI VWUDWL¿HG KRXVHKROG FRQWH[WV DW ;DOWRFDQ WR VXSSRUW WKH HODE- oration of an improved chronology. This article uses Bayesian statistical modeling of a suite of 45 new radiometric dates from these excavations, as well as nine previously reported radiometric dates from test pit excavations, to propose a new chronology for the site. Postclassic and Colonial Ceramic Chronologies in Central Mexico and Xaltocan %HWZHHQ WKH V DQG V D W\SRORJ\ RI VHULDWHG FHUDPLF W\SHV IRU WKH %DVLQ RI 0H[LFR ZDV ¿UVW FUHDWHG EDVHG RQ WKH $]WHF ,,9 %ODFNRQ2UDQJH ZDUHV 9DLOODQW )UDQFR *ULI¿Q DQG (VSHMR 7ROVWR\ )LJXUH 7KLV IUDPHZRUN HPSKDVL]HG D VLQJOH HYR- lutionary trajectory between types with the exception of some colonial Aztec IV motifs that showed REYLRXV (XURSHDQ LQÀXHQFH 7KLV UHODWLYH FKURQRORJ\ ZDV FRUUHODWHG ZLWK DEVROXWH GDWHV UH¿QHG DQG H[SDQGHG WR LQFOXGH RWKHU central Mexican regions associated with the Aztec Empire as a result of major regional survey and H[FDYDWLRQ SURMHFWV EHJLQQLQJ LQ WKH V &KDUOWRQ 3DUVRQV %ODQWRQ DQG 3DUVRQV :KDOHQ DQG 3DUVRQV 6PLWK DQG 'RHUVKXN (YDQV DQG )UHWHU +DUH DQG 6PLWK 1LFKROV DQG &KDUOWRQ 3DUVRQV HW DO +RGJH %UXP¿HO E 6DQGHUV HW DO DUJXHG WKDW $]WHF , DQG ,, FHUDPLFV ZHUH URXJKO\ FRQWHPSRUDQHRXV UHJLRQDO YDULDQWV XVHG LQ WKH %DVLQ RI 0H[LFR EHWZHHQ $' DQG $]WHF , FHUDPLFV ZHUH XVHG SUHGRPLQDQWO\ LQ the southern Basin, with the northern Basin island of Xaltocan standing out as a marked exception, Radiocarbon 9RO 1U S ± DOI: 10.2458/56.17504 © 2014 by the Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona
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A New Bayesian Chronology For Postclassic and Colonial Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

Feb 01, 2023

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Page 1: A New Bayesian Chronology For Postclassic and Colonial Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

A NEW BAYESIAN CHRONOLOGY FOR POSTCLASSIC AND COLONIAL OCCUPA-TION AT XALTOCAN, MEXICO Lisa Overholtzer

Department of Anthropology, Wichita State University, 1845 Fairmount St., Wichita, KS 67260, USA.

Email: [email protected].

ABSTRACT. This article proposes a new four-phase chronology for Postclassic and colonial occupation at Xaltocan, Mex-

ico, using Bayesian statistical modeling of a suite of 54 radiometric dates. Of these, 46 samples come from recent extensive

H[FDYDWLRQV�RI�VHDOHG��VWUDWL¿HG�KRXVHKROG�GHSRVLWV��IDFLOLWDWLQJ�LPSURYHG�XQGHUVWDQGLQJ�RI�VDPSOH�FRQWH[W�DQG�UHVXOWLQJ�LQ�a more accurate chronology. The timing of the adoption of major ceramic wares at the site and intrasite level is outlined and

contextualized within broad, regional phases. These results are particularly valuable given recent research that repudiates

D�XQLIRUP�FKURQRORJLFDO�IUDPHZRUN�IRU� WKH�%DVLQ�RI�0H[LFR�LQ�WKH�3RVWFODVVLF�SHULRG��DQG�LQGLFDWHV�LQVWHDG�D�VLJQL¿FDQW�amount of chronological overlap and regional variation in the use of distinct ceramic types.

INTRODUCTION

Despite the vast and detailed knowledge available for the Postclassic period in the Basin of Mexico,

DUFKDHRORJLFDO�FKURQRORJLHV�IRU�WKDW�RFFXSDWLRQ²VSHFL¿FDOO\�RQHV�WKDW�GR�QRW�UHO\�RQ�PRQXPHQWDO�LQVFULSWLRQV�RU�FRORQLDO�KLVWRULFDO�GRFXPHQWV²UHPDLQ�SRRUO\�GH¿QHG��$V�-HIIUH\�3DUVRQV��(OL]DEHWK�%UXP¿HO��DQG�0DU\�+RGJH��3DUVRQV�HW�DO������������FRQFOXGHG�LQ�WKH�PRVW�UHFHQW�WUHDWPHQW�RI�&R\-

otlatelco and Aztec I ceramic wares, “We are still a long way from understanding the spatial-tempo-

ral distribution of [these types] in central Mexico, much less the sociopolitical and socioeconomic

implications of this distribution.” This meager grasp is partially due to the apparent complexity of

these distributions, as well as the small number of existing radiocarbon determinations and a lack

RI�GHWDLOHG�FRQWH[WXDO�LQIRUPDWLRQ�IRU�WKRVH�GDWHV��7KLV�VLWXDWLRQ�LV�H[HPSOL¿HG�DW�WKH�VLWH�RI�;DO-tocan, capital of the pre-Aztec Otomí city-state, and subsequently subject to the successive Aztec

and Spanish colonial empires. With over 20 years of archaeological research at Xaltocan, the site

chronology is better understood than most, and yet the existing chronological framework relies on

10 14&�GHWHUPLQDWLRQV�IURP�WHVW�SLWV�H[FDYDWHG�LQ����FP�DUELWUDU\�OHYHOV�IRU�WKH�GHOLQHDWLRQ�RI�IRXU�SKDVHV�VSDQQLQJ�QHDUO\�D�PLOOHQQLXP��)RUWXQDWHO\��LQYHVWLJDWRUV�KDYH�QRZ�FDUULHG�RXW�VXI¿FLHQWO\�H[WHQVLYH�DQG�GHWDLOHG�H[FDYDWLRQV�RI�VWUDWL¿HG�KRXVHKROG�FRQWH[WV�DW�;DOWRFDQ�WR�VXSSRUW�WKH�HODE-

oration of an improved chronology. This article uses Bayesian statistical modeling of a suite of 45

new radiometric dates from these excavations, as well as nine previously reported radiometric dates

from test pit excavations, to propose a new chronology for the site.

Postclassic and Colonial Ceramic Chronologies in Central Mexico and Xaltocan

%HWZHHQ�WKH�����V�DQG�����V��D�W\SRORJ\�RI�VHULDWHG�FHUDPLF�W\SHV�IRU�WKH�%DVLQ�RI�0H[LFR�ZDV�¿UVW�FUHDWHG�EDVHG�RQ�WKH�$]WHF�,�,9�%ODFN�RQ�2UDQJH�ZDUHV��9DLOODQW�������)UDQFR�������������������*ULI¿Q�DQG�(VSHMR�������������7ROVWR\��������)LJXUH�����7KLV�IUDPHZRUN�HPSKDVL]HG�D�VLQJOH�HYR-

lutionary trajectory between types with the exception of some colonial Aztec IV motifs that showed

REYLRXV�(XURSHDQ�LQÀXHQFH��

7KLV�UHODWLYH�FKURQRORJ\�ZDV�FRUUHODWHG�ZLWK�DEVROXWH�GDWHV��UH¿QHG��DQG�H[SDQGHG�WR�LQFOXGH�RWKHU�central Mexican regions associated with the Aztec Empire as a result of major regional survey and

H[FDYDWLRQ�SURMHFWV� EHJLQQLQJ� LQ� WKH�����V� �&KDUOWRQ�������3DUVRQV�������%ODQWRQ� DQG�3DUVRQV�������:KDOHQ�DQG�3DUVRQV�������6PLWK�DQG�'RHUVKXN�������(YDQV�DQG�)UHWHU�������+DUH�DQG�6PLWK�������1LFKROV�DQG�&KDUOWRQ�������3DUVRQV�HW�DO��������+RGJH�������%UXP¿HO�����E���6DQGHUV�HW�DO���������DUJXHG�WKDW�$]WHF�,�DQG�,,�FHUDPLFV�ZHUH�URXJKO\�FRQWHPSRUDQHRXV��UHJLRQDO�YDULDQWV�XVHG�LQ�WKH�%DVLQ�RI�0H[LFR�EHWZHHQ�$'������DQG�������$]WHF�,�FHUDPLFV�ZHUH�XVHG�SUHGRPLQDQWO\�LQ�the southern Basin, with the northern Basin island of Xaltocan standing out as a marked exception,

Radiocarbon��9RO�����1U����������S�����±���� DOI: 10.2458/56.17504

© 2014 by the Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona

Page 2: A New Bayesian Chronology For Postclassic and Colonial Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

1078 L Overholtzer

while Aztec II ceramics were popular in the northern Basin. In stratigraphic excavations at sites

ZKHUH�ERWK�$]WHF�,�DQG�,,�ZHUH�XVHG��VXFK�DV�&KDOFR�DQG�&XOKXDFDQ��2¶1HLOO�������6HMRXUQH��������:KDOHQ�DQG�3DUVRQV��������IRXQG�WKDW�$]WHF�,�SRWWHU\�ZDV�XVHG�H[FOXVLYHO\�IRU�VRPH�WLPH�EHIRUH�Aztec II was adopted, suggesting some degree of temporal variation. Aztec III ceramics were con-

VLGHUHG�WR�EH�WKH�KDOOPDUN�RI�WKH�SHULRG�$'�����±������6DQGHUV�HW�DO���������+RZHYHU��&KDUOWRQ��������������GHPRQVWUDWHG�WKDW�LQ�PDQ\�UXUDO�DUHDV��(XURSHDQ�LQÀXHQFHG�FHUDPLFV�GLG�QRW�DSSHDU�until approximately AD 1650, and Aztec III pottery continued to be produced in the colonial period

alongside Aztec IV pottery.

More recent Basin of Mexico chronologies have replaced a model of unilinear change with a more

FRPSOH[�IUDPHZRUN�LQ�ZKLFK�VW\OLVWLF�GLIIHUHQFHV�DUH�ERWK�VSDWLDO�DQG�WHPSRUDO��VLJQL¿FDQW�FKURQR-

logical overlap exists for several types, and chronological overlap varies geographically. Investi-

JDWLRQV�E\�%UXP¿HO�DQG�FROOHDJXHV��3DUVRQV�HW�DO��������%UXP¿HO�����D��SODFHG�$]WHF�,�SRWWHU\�earlier, beginning in the 10th century, and thus partially contemporaneous with the other regional

FHUDPLF� FRPSOH[HV��&R\RWODWHOFR� DQG�0D]DSDQ��7KHLU� UHVHDUFK� LQGLFDWHG� D� SHULRG� GXULQJ�ZKLFK�$]WHF�,�SRWWHU\�ZDV�XVHG�H[FOXVLYHO\�IROORZHG�E\�D�VLJQL¿FDQW�SHULRG�GXULQJ�ZKLFK�ERWK�$]WHF�,�DQG�,,�FHUDPLF�W\SHV�ZHUH�XVHG�DW�VRPH�VLWHV��OLNH�;DOWRFDQ���ZKLOH�RWKHUV��OLNH�WKRVH�LQ�WKH�VRXWKHDVWHUQ�%DVLQ��ZHUH�FKDUDFWHUL]HG�E\�FRQWLQXHG�XVH�RI�$]WHF�,�SRWWHU\�DQG�D�GHOD\�LQ�WKH�XVH�RI�$]WHF�,,��7KXV��DV�1LFKROV�DQG�&KDUOWRQ������������VXJJHVW��ZH�PXVW�PRYH�EH\RQG�SUREOHPDWLF�DVVXPSWLRQV�“of a uniform chronological framework for the entire basin during the Postclassic period.” This

conclusion presented challenges and exciting potential for research exploring spatial and temporal

variation in ceramic traditions related to Postclassic ethnicities and city-state confederations. It also

demonstrated the need for the development of detailed local chronologies within broad regional

SKDVHV��D�QHHG�WKDW�WKLV�DUWLFOH�DGGUHVVHV��+RGJH�����������

Local chronologies for the site of Xaltocan, located on a human-made island in the northern Basin

RI�0H[LFR� �)LJXUH� ����ZHUH� ¿UVW� HVWDEOLVKHG� E\�%UXP¿HO� �����D���8VLQJ� VWUDWLJUDSKLF� HYLGHQFH��multidimensional scaling of ceramic variants, and 10 14&�GDWHV�IURP�WZHQW\�IRXU���î���P�WHVW�SLWV��2SHUDWLRQV��H[FDYDWHG�LQ�DUELWUDU\����FP�OHYHOV�LQ������DQG�������%UXP¿HO�SURSRVHG�IRXU�SKDVHV�of occupation at the site. These four phases were based on the following stratigraphic sequence of

diagnostic Aztec Black-on-Orange ceramics: pure Aztec I contexts lie underneath mixed Aztec I

and II deposits, which lie underneath Aztec II ceramics, which in turn lie beneath Aztec III and IV

FHUDPLFV��%UXP¿HO�����D����±����

A 14&�VDPSOH�IURP�WKH�YHJHWDWLRQ�XQGHUO\LQJ�WKH�KXPDQ�PDGH�LVODQG�SURYLGHG�DQ�HDUO\�ERXQGDU\�HVWLPDWH�IRU�VLWH�FRQVWUXFWLRQ��WKLV�GDWH�KDG�D�PHGLDQ�RI�FDO�$'������7KH�¿UVW�RFFXSDWLRQ�SKDVH�ZDV�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�SXUH�GHSRVLWV�RI�$]WHF�,�%ODFN�RQ�2UDQJH�SRWWHU\�DQG�&KDOFR�3RO\FKURPH��3KDVH���had four 14&�GDWHV�ZLWK�PHGLDQV�RI�FDO�$'����������������DQG�����DQG�UHSUHVHQWV�RFFXSDWLRQ�GXULQJ�the Early Postclassic period.

Figure 1 Aztec I–IV Black-on-Orange diagnostic ceramic types: a. Aztec I bowl; b. Aztec II plate; c. Aztec III molcajete;

and d. Aztec IV molcajete.

Page 3: A New Bayesian Chronology For Postclassic and Colonial Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

����Bayesian Chronology for Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

%UXP¿HO¶V� UHVHDUFK� �����D�� LQGLFDWHG�D�SHULRG�RI�RYHUODS�EHWZHHQ�$]WHF� ,� DQG� ,,�SRWWHU\� W\SHV��FDOOHG�3KDVH����WKDW�FRQ¿UPHG�WKH�JUDGXDO�VKLIW�¿UVW�VXJJHVWHG�E\�:KDOHQ�DQG�3DUVRQV���������,Q�DGGLWLRQ� WR�PL[HG�$]WHF� ,� DQG� ,,�%ODFN�RQ�2UDQJH�SRWWHU\��3KDVH���ZDV�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�&KDOFR�Polychrome and small amounts of redwares, particularly Black on Red, and with Brown Incised

ware. Two 14&�GDWHV�ZLWK�PHGLDQV�RI�FDO�$'������DQG������LQGLFDWHG�WKDW�3KDVH���UHSUHVHQWV�WKH�KHLJKW�RI�;DOWRFDQ¶V�SRZHU�GXULQJ�WKH�(DUO\±0LGGOH�3RVWFODVVLF��

3KDVH���ZDV�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�SXUH�GHSRVLWV�RI�$]WHF�,,�%ODFN�RQ�2UDQJH�SRWWHU\��ODUJH�TXDQWLWLHV�RI�UHGZDUHV��HVSHFLDOO\�%ODFN�DQG�:KLWH�RQ�5HG��DQG�VRPH�&KDOFR�3RO\FKURPH��,W�KDG�WZR�14&�GDWHV�ZLWK�PHGLDQV�RI�FDO�$'������DQG�������UHSUHVHQWLQJ�RFFXSDWLRQ�GXULQJ�;DOWRFDQ¶V�VXERUGLQDWLRQ�WR�&XDXKWLWODQ�DQG�$]FDSRW]DOFR�GXULQJ�WKH�0LGGOH�3RVWFODVVLF��

Phase 4 was associated with Aztec III and IV Black-on-Orange pottery and redwares, especially

Black-on-Red. It had one 14&�GDWH�ZLWK�D�PHGLDQ�RI�FDO�$'�������EXW�WKH�PLGGHQ�WKDW�SURGXFHG�WKDW�VDPSOH�DOVR�\LHOGHG�D�FRORQLDO�VW\OH�¿JXULQH��VXJJHVWLQJ�WKDW�WKLV�SKDVH�UHSUHVHQWV�RFFXSDWLRQ�GXULQJ�WKH�/DWH�3RVWFODVVLF�DQG�FRORQLDO�SHULRG��3KDVHV���DQG���UHPDLQHG�SRRUO\�XQGHUVWRRG��VLQFH�3KDVH���was represented by only two dates and Phase 4 by a single date, and there was no chronological

separation between the 14&�GDWHV�IRU�3KDVHV���DQG����

METHODSSamples and Sample Context5HFHQW�H[WHQVLYH�H[FDYDWLRQV�RI�GRPHVWLF�VWUXFWXUHV�FODULI\�WKH�VLWH¶V�RFFXSDWLRQDO�KLVWRU\�DQG�SUR-

YLGH� WKH� RSSRUWXQLW\� WR� UHYLVLW�%UXP¿HO¶V� FKURQRORJ\�� ([FDYDWLRQV� FDUULHG� RXW� E\�%UXP¿HO� DQG�.ULVWLQ�'H�/XFLD��%UXP¿HO�����D��������'H�/XFLD�������������EHWZHHQ������DQG������IRFXVHG�RQ�RFFXSDWLRQ�GXULQJ�%UXP¿HO¶V�3KDVHV���DQG����ZKLOH�WKRVH�E\�WKH�DXWKRU��2YHUKROW]HU�������������

Figure 2 Map of the Basin of Mexico

Page 4: A New Bayesian Chronology For Postclassic and Colonial Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

1080 L Overholtzer

FHQWHUHG�RQ�3KDVHV���DQG����7KHVH�VWUDWL¿HG�GRPHVWLF�FRQWH[WV�SURGXFHG�QHZ�VWUDWLJUDSKLF�LQIRU-PDWLRQ�RQ�WKH�RUGHULQJ�RI�GHSRVLWV�FRQWDLQLQJ�WKH�GLDJQRVWLF�$]WHF�,±,9�FHUDPLFV�XVHG�WR�FRQVWUXFW�;DOWRFDQ¶V�FKURQRORJ\��7KH�H[FDYDWLRQV�DOVR�SURGXFHG����VDPSOHV�RI�FKDUFRDO�DQG�ERQH�WKDW�ZHUH�sent for radiometric analysis and which were available for Bayesian modeling. For this article, 14&�determinations were available from nearly all the excavations carried out at the site to date, and

WKHVH�GHWHUPLQDWLRQV�DUH�EURDGO\�GLVWULEXWHG�VSDWLDOO\��)LJXUH�����DV�ZHOO�DV�VWUDWLJUDSKLFDOO\��VSDQ-

QLQJ�WKH�LVODQG¶V�RFFXSDWLRQ�IURP�LWV�IRXQGLQJ�WKURXJK�WKH�HDUO\�FRORQLDO�SHULRG��

%UXP¿HO�VXEPLWWHG����FDUERQ�VDPSOHV�IRU�14&�GDWLQJ�����$06�DQG���VWDQGDUG�UDGLRPHWULF�GDWHV��DW�%HWD�$QDO\WLF��,QF��)URP�2YHUKROW]HU¶V�H[FDYDWLRQV�����ERQH�DQG�FKDUFRDO�VDPSOHV�ZHUH�VXEPLWWHG�IRU�GDWLQJ�E\�DFFHOHUDWRU�PDVV� VSHFWURPHWU\� �$06��DW� WKH�8QLYHUVLW\�RI�$UL]RQD��%RQH�VDPSOHV�ZHUH�SURFHVVHG�XWLOL]LQJ�WKH�PRGL¿HG�/RQJLQ�PHWKRG��%URZQ�HW�DO���������$OO�ERQH�VDPSOHV�\LHOGHG�VXI¿FLHQW�FROODJHQ�DQG�DOO�FKDUFRDO�VDPSOHV�VXI¿FLHQW�FDUERQ�IRU�GDWLQJ��7ZR�GDWHV�IURP�WKH�PL[HG�$]WHF�,,±,,,�FRQVWUXFWLRQ�¿OO�ZHUH�H[FOXGHG�IURP�%D\HVLDQ�PRGHOLQJ��EHFDXVH�ZKLOH�WKH\�FRXOG�RI-fer insight into the timing of that particular construction, they could not be associated with a single

phase. The remaining dates were combined with the 10 14&�GDWHV�IURP�%UXP¿HO¶V�RULJLQDO�WHVW�SLW�H[FDYDWLRQV�WR�IRUP�WKH�EDVLV�IRU�WKH�FKURQRORJ\�EXLOW�XVLQJ�%D\HVLDQ�VWDWLVWLFDO�PRGHOLQJ��$SSHQ-

dix Table S1��DYDLODEOH�DV�DQ�RQOLQH�6XSSOHPHQWDO�¿OH�ZLWK�WKLV�DUWLFOH��

$OO�GDWHV�ZHUH�FDOLEUDWHG�XVLQJ�2[&DO��Y������%URQN�5DPVH\�����D�E��DQG�WKH�,QW&DO���FDOLEUDWLRQ�FXUYH��5HLPHU�HW�DO���������%HFDXVH�RI�D�VWURQJ�³ZLJJOH´�LQ�WKH�FDOLEUDWLRQ�FXUYH��WKH�FRORQLDO�SHULRG�dates demonstrate bimodal distributions and have two likely date ranges—one in the 16th and one

in the 17th centuries. Unfortunately, the material culture present in the middens does not allow us

to exclude either date range.

7KH�¿UVW�DWWHPSW�DW�%D\HVLDQ�PRGHOLQJ�RI�;DOWRFDQ¶V�RFFXSDWLRQDO�KLVWRU\��FRQGXFWHG�IRU�WKH�DX-

WKRU¶V�GLVVHUWDWLRQ��2YHUKROW]HU��������WHVWHG�%UXP¿HO¶V�IRXU�SKDVH�FKURQRORJLFDO�IUDPHZRUN�XVLQJ�the newly available 14&�GHWHUPLQDWLRQV��7KLV�LQLWLDO�DWWHPSW�LQGLFDWHG�WKDW�D�VXEVWDQWLDO�UHYLVLRQ�RI�WKH�VLWH�FKURQRORJ\�ZDV�QHFHVVDU\��)LUVW��3KDVH���FRXOG�DQG�VKRXOG�EH�GLYLGHG�LQWR�SUH�+LVSDQLF�

Figure 3 Reconstructed island of Xaltocan, showing excavation units as black squares and radiomet-

ric sampling as stars within the squares. Radiometric samples from recent extensive excavations of

domestic contexts are denoted by white stars, while those from test pit excavations are shown in gray.

Page 5: A New Bayesian Chronology For Postclassic and Colonial Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

1081Bayesian Chronology for Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

and colonial contexts. Unfortunately, excavations have uncovered only two colonial-period houses

that directly overlie Aztec III occupation, and in those instances, the ground surface was the same.

+RZHYHU��XVLQJ�14&�GDWLQJ�DQG�WKH�SUHVHQFH�RI�(XURSH�IDXQDO�UHPDLQV�DQG�(XURSHDQ�VW\OH�PRWLIV�RQ�FHUDPLFV�DQG�¿JXULQHV��LW�ZDV�GHWHUPLQHG�WKDW�FRORQLDO�SHULRG�GHSRVLWV�IURP�WKH���WK�DQG���WK�centuries at Xaltocan can be distinguished by the presence of large quantities of Aztec IV pottery.

7KLV�LV�FRQVLVWHQW�ZLWK�&KDUOWRQ¶V��������������¿QGLQJV�IRU�2WXPED��

6HFRQG��QR�VWDWLVWLFDOO\�YLDEOH�PRGHO� LQ�ZKLFK�3KDVHV���DQG���ZHUH�DEXWWLQJ�DQG�QRW�FRPSOHWHO\�RYHUODSSLQJ�FRXOG�EH�FUHDWHG��OHDGLQJ�2YHUKROW]HU�WR�FRQFOXGH�WKDW�%UXP¿HO¶V�3KDVH���GLG�QRW�H[LVW��DQG� WKDW� VXFK�GHSRVLWV� OLNHO\� UHSUHVHQWHG�PL[HG�FRQWH[WV� �2YHUKROW]HU������������+RZHYHU�� WKLV�H[SODQDWLRQ�ZDV�XQVDWLVIDFWRU\��VLQFH�LW�GLG�QRW�DFFRXQW�IRU�RWKHU�HYLGHQFH�IRU�WKH�SKDVH��VSHFL¿FDOO\�the association of mixed Aztec I and II and pure Aztec II deposits with distinct redwares and other

GHFRUDWHG�FHUDPLFV�DV�UHYHDOHG�E\�%UXP¿HO¶V�PXOWLGLPHQVLRQDO�VFDOLQJ��

6XEVHTXHQW�FRPSDULVRQ�RI�WKH�GDWD�RI�%UXP¿HO��'H�/XFLD��DQG�WKH�DXWKRU�IRU�DQ�DUWLFOH�RQ�FKDQJHV�LQ�KRXVHKROG�SUDFWLFHV�RYHU�WLPH��2YHUKROW]HU�DQG�'H�/XFLD��IRUWKFRPLQJ��UHYHDOHG�GRPHVWLF�FRQ-

WH[WV�SHUWDLQLQJ�WR�%UXP¿HO¶V�3KDVHV���DQG��²PLGGHQV�ZLWK�$]WHF�,�DQG�,,�SRWWHU\�DQG�PLGGHQV�with purely Aztec II pottery, respectively—with the same associated redwares and other decorated

ceramics. Moreover, these contexts produced 14&�GHWHUPLQDWLRQV�WKDW�RYHUODSSHG�HQWLUHO\��)XUWKHU�examination of the data revealed that Phase 2 contexts always represented continuous occupation

IURP�3KDVH����UHÀHFWHG�LQ�PLGGHQV�ZLWK�$]WHF�,�DQG�,,�SRWWHU\�WKDW�VWUDWLJUDSKLFDOO\�RYHUOLH�$]WHF�,�GRPHVWLF�FRQWH[WV���ZKLOH�3KDVH���FRQWH[WV�ZHUH�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�QHZO\�FUHDWHG�ODQG�DURXQG�WKH�IRUPHU� ODNHVKRUH� �DQG�ZHUH� VHHQ� LQ� WKH�¿UVW�GHSRVLWV� WKDW�RYHUOLH� WKH�PL[HG�¿OO�SODFHG� WR�FUHDWH�KDELWDEOH�ODQG���7KH�GDWD�DOVR�LQGLFDWHG�WKH�H[LVWHQFH�RI�VLJQL¿FDQW�GLIIHUHQFHV�LQ�WKH�SUDFWLFHV�RI�³3KDVH��´�DQG�³3KDVH��´�RFFXSDQWV��LQFOXGLQJ�UDGLFDOO\�GLVWLQFW�EXULDO�FXVWRPV�DQG�VSDWLDO�SDWWHUQ-

ing of household life. The authors argued that during the Middle Postclassic, Aztec II-consuming

migrants—who, based on burial practices and ceramic consumption patterns, may have come from

HOVHZKHUH�LQ�QRUWKHUQ�FHQWUDO�0H[LFR�DQG�PD\�KDYH�EHHQ�1DKXDWO�VSHDNHUV²VHWWOHG�DURXQG�;DOWR-

FDQ¶V�ODNHVKRUH��7KHVH�VHWWOHUV�MRLQHG�WKH�RULJLQDO�LQKDELWDQWV��ZKR�DGRSWHG�VRPH�$]WHF�,,�SRWWHU\�ZKLOH�VWLOO�XVLQJ�WKH�$]WHF�,�ZDUH�WKH\�KDG�FRQVXPHG�IRU�FHQWXULHV��7KXV��LW�ZDV�FOHDU�WKDW�%UXP¿HO¶V�Phase 2 was “real” in the sense that it represented an assemblage of materials used by a set of people

DW�;DOWRFDQ�GXULQJ�D�SDUWLFXODU�SRLQW�LQ�WLPH��WKLV�SHULRG�VLPSO\�RYHUODSSHG�FKURQRORJLFDOO\��EXW�QRW�VSDWLDOO\��ZLWK�3KDVH���

6HYHUDO�TXHVWLRQV�UHPDLQ�UHJDUGLQJ�WKLV�WUDQVLWLRQ��KRZHYHU��6RPH�FRQWH[WV�IURP�%UXP¿HO¶V�H[FD-vations showed Aztec II deposits overlying deposits containing mixed Aztec I and II. This suggests

that some residents may have stopped using Aztec I pottery before the arrival of Aztec III wares.

Further research, including additional extensive excavations of domestic contexts, is necessary to

determine the likely variable timing of this shift. For now, this study acknowledges and models the

basic chronology of a phase associated with the arrival of Aztec II pottery, and comments on the

timing of the use of Aztec I and II wares in the two households for which we currently have data.

6WUDWLJUDSKLF�LQIRUPDWLRQ�RQ�WKH�RUGHULQJ�RI�$]WHF�,±,9�GHSRVLWV�IURP�WKHVH�UHFHQW�H[FDYDWLRQV�DW�Xaltocan validates the new four-phase chronology proposed here. In all excavations at the site, a

similar stratigraphic sequence was evident: deposits containing Aztec III ceramics overlie contexts

FRQWDLQLQJ�$]WHF�,,�FHUDPLFV��HLWKHU�DORQH�RU�DORQJVLGH�$]WHF�,�FHUDPLFV���ZKLFK�LQ�WXUQ�RYHUOLH�SXUH�$]WHF�,�GHSRVLWV��)LJXUHV���DQG����7DEOH�����:KLOH�LQ�WKH�OLPLWHG�H[FDYDWLRQV�FDUULHG�RXW�WR�GDWH��FRORQLDO�SHULRG�RFFXSDWLRQ�WRRN�SODFH�RQ�WKH�VDPH�VWUDWLJUDSKLF�LQWHUIDFH�DV�WKH�/DWH�3RVWFODVVLF��VHH�)LJXUH�����FRORQLDO�FRQWH[WV�FDQ�EH�GLIIHUHQWLDWHG�RQ�WKH�EDVLV�RI�VLJQL¿FDQW�TXDQWLWLHV�RI�$]WHF�,9�

Page 6: A New Bayesian Chronology For Postclassic and Colonial Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

1082 L Overholtzer

SRWWHU\��LQ�WKHVH��$]WHF�,,,�DQG�,9�FHUDPLFV�DUH�VLPLODUO\�XELTXLWRXV��7KH�QHZ�PRGHO�SURSRVHG�KHUH�FRPELQHV�GDWHV�IURP�GHSRVLWV�WKDW�ZRXOG�KDYH�EHHQ�FDOOHG�3KDVHV���DQG���LQ�%UXP¿HO¶V�FKURQRORJ\��and separates her Phase 4 into two distinct phases. 14&�GDWHV�IURP�GHSRVLWV�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�WKHVH�IRXU�phases—determined by the presence of Aztec I, Aztec I and II or pure Aztec II, Aztec III, or Aztec

III and IV ceramics—and prior knowledge of archaeological context were used to make Bayesian

statistical models.

)LJXUH����1RUWK�SURÀOH�RI�2S�*��*���VKRZLQJ�+DL�SKDVH�GRPHVWLF�DUFKLWHFWXUH�VXSHULPSRVHG�RQ�'HKH�SKDVH�GRPHVWLF�DUFKLWHFWXUH�HQFRXQWHUHG�LQ�WKH�2S�*�*��H[FDYDWLRQ�XQLWV��7KUHH�14C dates from this occupational

VHTXHQFH�DUH� LQFOXGHG� LQ� WKH�%D\HVLDQ�VWDWLVWLFDO�PRGHO��+DL�SKDVH� VDPSOH�%HWD��������DQG�'HKH�SKDVH�VDPSOHV�%HWD�������DQG�%HWD���������

)LJXUH����(DVW�SURÀOH�RI�(VWH����VKRZLQJ�7ODOOL�DQG�,VOD�SKDVH�GRPHVWLF�DUFKLWHFWXUH�VXSHULPSRVHG�RQ�+DL�SKDVH�GRPHVWLF�architecture encountered on Structure 122. Fifteen 14C dates from this occupational sequence are included in the Bayesian sta-

WLVWLFDO�PRGHO��7ODOOL�SKDVH�VDPSOHV�$$�������$$�������$$�������$$�������$$�������$$�������$$�������$$�������DQG�$$�������DQG�+DL�SKDVH�VDPSOHV�$$�������$$�������$$�������$$�������$$�������DQG�$$�������

Page 7: A New Bayesian Chronology For Postclassic and Colonial Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

����Bayesian Chronology for Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

7DEOH����5LP�VKHUG�FRXQWV�IURP�PLGGHQV�DQG�¿OO�GHSRVLWV�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�WKH�'HKH��+DL��7ODOOL��DQG�Isla phase domestic architecture seen in Figures 4 and 5.

Aztec

I

Aztec

II

Aztec

III

Aztec

IV

Plain

red

Black-

on-red

Black-

and-white

on red

Yellow-

on-red

Red-

on-buff

Poly-

chrome

Brown

incised Total

G2-G7 Dehe

phase deposits 181 ����� 0 0 12 2 1 0 � 46 5 ���*��*��+DL�SKDVH�deposits ���� 56 2 2 44 7 �� 0 1 15 4 ���*��*��+DL�SKDVH�midden 18 17 1 0 42 5 27 0 2 10 0 122

6WUXFWXUH�����+DL�phase middens 4 162 0 0 ��� 11 65 0 0 4 � ���Structure 122

7ODOOL�SKDVH�¿OO�deposits 2 58 116 25 145 28 �� 17 0 8 0 ���Structure 122

Tlalli phase mid-

dens 0 ���� 28 0 ���� 6 6 0 0 1 0 ����Structure 122 Isla

phase midden 1 17 ���� �� ���� 25 22 26 0 4 0 217

THE PROPOSED BAYESIAN MODEL

The chronological model proposed in this article is qualitatively, quantitatively, and methodologi-

cally different from its precursor. Qualitative sample context merits some attention, as the chrono-

logical model proposed for the later phases is based predominantly on samples from vertical and

horizontal household excavations from two areas of the site. The model it is designed to replace was

based entirely on samples from test pit excavations. Test pit samples, by virtue of being distributed

widely across the site, result in chronologies that are more likely to be representative of popula-

tion-wide trends. By contrast, single households might not have been occupied for the full range

of a given ceramic phase, or their occupants could have adopted the use of a diagnostic ceramic

type earlier or later than most residents. Thus, the use of 14&�VDPSOHV�IURP�IHZHU�ORFDWLRQV�DFURVV�the site may lead to sampling bias. In the case of the samples used for this article, the concordance

between individual dates from Aztec II contexts in two distinct parts of the site—centrally located

2S�=RF��DQG�2S�(VWH��RQ�WKH�VRXWKHDVWHUQ�HGJH�RI�WKH�LVODQG��VHH�)LJXUH���²VXJJHVWV�WKDW�VDPSOLQJ�bias is not an issue. Unfortunately, no other Aztec III or colonial period household contexts have

been excavated at Xaltocan, but the dates we do have correspond with published chronologies for

other sites. This concordance suggests that no severe sampling bias exists. Sampling bias issues

notwithstanding, samples from extensive household excavations facilitate a better understanding of

stratigraphy and sample context, and this understanding of context leads to more accurate and more

SUHFLVH�FKURQRORJLHV��7KH�DXWKRU�VXJJHVWV�WKDW�WKLV�IDFWRU�LV�UHVSRQVLEOH�IRU�WKH�VLJQL¿FDQW�FKDQJH�LQ�chronology proposed in this article.

Quantitatively speaking, continued research at the site has increased the available number of 14&�GHWHUPLQDWLRQV�IURP�WKH����XVHG�LQ�%UXP¿HO¶V�FKURQRORJ\�WR�D�VDPSOH�VL]H�RI��������RI�ZKLFK�ZHUH�LQFOXGHG�LQ�WKH�PRGHO��7KH�VLJQL¿FDQWO\�ODUJHU�QXPEHU�RI�GHWHUPLQDWLRQV�IDFLOLWDWHV�WKH�FRQVWUXF-WLRQ�RI�D�PXFK�WLJKWHU�FKURQRORJ\�DQG�DOORZV�XV�WR�LGHQWLI\�RXWOLHU�VDPSOHV�PRUH�HDVLO\��2I�WKH����RULJLQDO�GDWHV��¿YH�ZHUH�H[FOXGHG�DV�RXWOLHUV��UHVXOWLQJ�LQ�D�¿QDO�PRGHO�VDPSOH�VL]H�RI����14&�GDWHV�

Page 8: A New Bayesian Chronology For Postclassic and Colonial Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

1084 L Overholtzer

Methodologically, most previous chronological studies in central Mexico, including that of Brum-

¿HO��KDYH�IRFXVHG�RQ�FHUDPLF�VHULDWLRQ��,Q�RUGHU�WR�DFKLHYH�¿QHU�WHPSRUDO�UHVROXWLRQ�LQ�0RUHORV�DQG�WKH�7ROXFD�9DOOH\��0LFKDHO�6PLWK��6PLWK�������6PLWK�DQG�'RHUVKXN�������+DUH�DQG�6PLWK�������6PLWK�HW�DO��������DSSOLHG�PXOWLSOH�WHFKQLTXHV��LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�FDOFXODWLRQ�RI�(XFOLGLDQ�GLVWDQFHV�DQG�nonmetric multidimensional scaling. In addition, Smith and colleagues seriated whole excavated

contexts, rather than relying on the presence of diagnostic ceramic types such as Aztec Black-on-

2UDQJH��&RQWH[WV�ZHUH�WKHQ�JURXSHG�LQWR�SKDVHV�XVLQJ�GLVFULPLQDQW�DQDO\VLV��:KLOH�VXFK�DQDO\VLV�KDV�HQDEOHG�WKH�FRQVWUXFWLRQ�RI�¿QHU�FKURQRORJLHV��WKH�DSSOLFDWLRQ�RI�QHZ�%D\HVLDQ�VWDWLVWLFDO�PHWK-

ods to 14&�GDWHV�KDV�DOVR�VKRZQ�VLJQL¿FDQW�SURPLVH�IRU�WKH�FUHDWLRQ�RI�PRUH�SUHFLVH�SKDVH�EDVHG�chronologies.

The Bayesian approach to 14&�GDWLQJ��%XFN�HW�DO��������LV�D�ZD\�WR�FRPELQH�DUFKDHRORJLFDO�NQRZO-edge on the nature of the sample, archaeological context, and stratigraphy, called “prior informa-

tion” in Bayesian terminology, with explicit, probabilistic modeling of date estimates. The use of a priori knowledge in the interpretation of data is the fundamental difference between Bayesian and

FODVVLFDO�DSSURDFKHV�WR�VWDWLVWLFDO�LQIHUHQFH��%XFN�HW�DO������������)RU�H[DPSOH��DUFKDHRORJLVWV�FDQ�use the information that a set of samples comes from a stratigraphic sequence—sample A is older

WKDQ�VDPSOH�%��ZKLFK�LV�ROGHU�WKDQ�VDPSOH�&²WR�FUHDWH�D�PRUH�SUHFLVH�SUREDELOLVWLF�UDQJH�IRU�HDFK�GDWH��%HFDXVH�SULRU� LQIRUPDWLRQ�FDQ�JUHDWO\� LQÀXHQFH� WKH�UHVXOWLQJ�FKURQRORJ\��VFKRODUV�PXVW�EH�FDUHIXO�ZKHQ�WUDQVODWLQJ�WKHLU�DUFKDHRORJLFDO�NQRZOHGJH�LQWR�VWDWLVWLFDO�LQSXWV��%XFN�HW�DO������������Archaeologists should create multiple models, evaluate their robusticity, and propose the preferred

model. This combination of archaeological knowledge and probabilistic modeling results in better

HVWLPDWHV�IRU�GDWHV�DQG�¿QHU�FKURQRORJLHV��VRPHWLPHV�RQ�WKH�VFDOH�RI�D�VLQJOH�KXPDQ�JHQHUDWLRQ��

Archaeologists have applied Bayesian theories to the interpretation of 14&�GDWHV�RI�VLQJOH�PRQX-

PHQWV��VXFK�DV�WKH�VWRQH�FLUFOHV�DW�6WRQHKHQJH��%D\OLVV�HW�DO���������VLQJOH�HYHQWV��VXFK�DV�WKH�GDWH�RI�WKH�HUXSWLRQ�RI�6DQWRULQL��)ULHGULFK�HW�DO���������DQG�FXOWXUDO�VHULHV�DQG�VHTXHQFHV�LQ�&KLQD�DQG�WKH�$HJHDQ�%URQ]H�$JH��/X�HW�DO��������0DQQLQJ�HW�DO���������:LWKLQ�FHQWUDO�0H[LFR��%D\HVLDQ�statistical modeling has been applied to traditional phase designations at the capital of Teotihuacan,

UHVXOWLQJ�LQ�FDOLEUDWHG�LQWHUYDOV�XS�WR�����VKRUWHU��%HUDPHQGL�2URVFR�HW�DO��������

RESULTS

%D\HVLDQ�VWDWLVWLFDO�PRGHOLQJ�ZDV�SHUIRUPHG�XVLQJ�%&DO�DQG�2[&DO�Y������ERWK�RQOLQH�%D\HVLDQ�14&�FDOLEUDWLRQ�WRROV��%&DO��KWWS���EFDO�VKHI¿HOG�DF�XN��LV hosted by the Department of Probability and

6WDWLVWLFV�DW�WKH�8QLYHUVLW\�RI�6KHI¿HOG��%XFN�HW�DO���������ZKLOH�2[&DO�LV�KRVWHG�E\�WKH�5DGLRFDU-ERQ�$FFHOHUDWRU�8QLW�DW�2[IRUG�8QLYHUVLW\��%URQN�5DPVH\�����D���1HDUO\�LGHQWLFDO�UHVXOWV�ZHUH�REWDLQHG��FI��2YHUKROW]HU���������±����ZLWK�2[&DO�SURGXFLQJ�SRVWHULRU�FDOHQGDU�\HDU�SUREDELOLW\�GLVWULEXWLRQV�WKDW�ZHUH�VOLJKWO\�PRUH�FRQVHUYDWLYH��,Q�VRPH�FDVHV��WKH�GLVWULEXWLRQV�ZHUH�WKH�VDPH��in others, the date ranges were 10 yr longer. In all cases, the ranges produced with the two models

overlapped completely, and the medians for the beginnings and ends of phases were identical. This

DUWLFOH�UHSRUWV�WKH�PRUH�FRQVHUYDWLYH�2[&DO�HVWLPDWHV�DQG�QRWHV�WKDW�WKH�FRPSDUDEOH�UHVXOWV�LQGLFDWH�that the proposed model is robust. In accordance with stratigraphic evidence, all phases in the model

are abutting, that is, there are neither chronological gaps nor overlapping periods. In addition, 1521

was set as the absolute calendar date separating the Aztec III and Aztec III/IV phases. In this article,

FDOLEUDWHG�DQG�PRGHOHG�GDWHV�DUH�URXQGHG�WR�WKH�QHDUHVW����\U��%RWK��ı�DQG��ı�UDQJHV�DUH�LQFOXGHG�IRU�FDOLEUDWHG�GDWHV��DQG�WKH��ı�UDQJH�DQG�LQWHUFHSW�DUH�UHSRUWHG�IRU�PRGHOHG�GDWHV�

7KH�¿UVW�UXQ�RI�WKH�PRGHO�LGHQWL¿HG�VL[�SRVVLEOH�RXWOLHU�GDWHV��VHH�$SSHQGL[�Table S1���2XWOLHUV�ZHUH�LGHQWL¿HG�XVLQJ�WKH�DJUHHPHQW�LQGH[�FDOFXODWHG�E\�2[&DO��ZKHQ�WKH�YDOXH�IRU�D�VDPSOH�IHOO�

Page 9: A New Bayesian Chronology For Postclassic and Colonial Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

1085Bayesian Chronology for Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

EHORZ������UHMHFWLRQ�ZDV�FRQVLGHUHG��%URQN�5DPVH\�����E���,Q�¿YH�RI�WKH�VL[�FDVHV��WKH�GDWHV�ZHUH�H[FOXGHG��,Q�WKH�VL[WK��VDPSOH�%HWD��������KDG�D�ERUGHUOLQH�DJUHHPHQW�LQGH[�RI������7KLV�VDPSOH�UHSUHVHQWV�WKH�¿UVW�DSSHDUDQFH�RI�$]WHF�,,�SRWWHU\�DORQJVLGH�$]WHF�,�LQ�RQH�KRXVHKROG��:KLOH�LW�LV�possible that the sample represents a case of old wood, it is also possible that this household may

have been one of the earliest adopters of Aztec II pottery and may have done so before the arrival of

Aztec II-using migrants. Thus, the sample was not excluded, but its low agreement was noted. After

H[FOXGLQJ�WKH�¿YH�RXWOLHUV��WKH�PRGHO�ZDV�UHUXQ�DQG�WKH�RYHUDOO�DJUHHPHQW�LQGH[�ZDV�FDOFXODWHG�WR�be 80%, indicating that the model is acceptable.

7KH� UHVXOWLQJ�PRGHO� �$SSHQGL[�Table S2��)LJXUHV��±����SURGXFHG� LQGLYLGXDO� SRVWHULRU� FDOHQGDU�year probability distributions with more precise date ranges than those of the previously accepted

FKURQRORJ\��$W��ı��WKH�DYHUDJH�UDQJH�RI�HUURU�IRU�DOO�FDOLEUDWHG�GDWHV�ZDV�UHGXFHG�E\�D�PRGHVW������More importantly, the model also created posterior calendar year probability distributions for phase

boundaries. The mean values were used to provide estimates of the beginning and end dates of the

IRXU� FHUDPLF� SKDVHV�� DOWKRXJK� WKH� �ı� SRVWHULRU� FDOHQGDU� \HDU� SUREDELOLW\� GLVWULEXWLRQV� IRU� SKDVH�boundaries are reported in Table S2� RI� WKH�$SSHQGL[� �RQOLQH� 6XSSOHPHQWDO� ¿OH��� 7KH� VLWH�ZLGH�FKURQRORJ\�SURSRVHG�KHUH�LV�DV�IROORZV��7DEOH����)LJXUH������$]WHF�,�RFFXSDWLRQ��FDOOHG�WKH�Dehe

�µZDWHU¶�LQ�2WRPt��SKDVH��GDWHV�WR�$'�����WR�������RFFXSDWLRQ�DIWHU�WKH�DGRSWLRQ�RI�$]WHF�,,�FHUDP-

ics, called the Hai �³ODQG´�LQ�2WRPt��SKDVH��GDWHV�WR�$'�����±������RFFXSDWLRQ�DIWHU�WKH�DUULYDO�RI�Aztec III ceramics, called the Tlalli��³ODQG´�LQ�1DKXDWO��SKDVH��GDWHV�WR�$'�����±������DQG�FRORQLDO�occupation, called the Isla��³LVODQG´�LQ�6SDQLVK��SKDVH��GDWHV�WR�$'�����±������

7DEOH����&RPSDULVRQ�RI�%UXP¿HO�DQG�UHYLVHG�FKURQRORJLHV�%UXP¿HO������E��PRGHO Revised model

Phase &HUDPLFV n

Range of

medians

�FDO�$'� Phase &HUDPLFV n

Range of

medians

�FDO�$'�

Phase

range

�FDO�$'�1 Aztec I 4 �����±��� Dehe Aztec I 24 �����±����� �����±����

2Aztec I &

II2 ����±����

+DLAztec I & II

or Aztec II

16 �����±���� ����±����� Aztec II 2 ����±����

4Aztec III &

IV1 1420

Tlalli Aztec III 11 �����±���� ����±����Isla Aztec III & IV 2 �����±���� ����±����

)LJXUH����3UREDELOLW\�GLVWULEXWLRQ�IRU�ERXQGDU\�WUDQVLWLRQ��6DPSOHV�FDOLEUDWHG�LQGLYLGXDOO\�DUH�VKRZQ�LQ�JUD\�OLQHV�DQG�with Bayesian model as black areas.

Page 10: A New Bayesian Chronology For Postclassic and Colonial Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

1086 L Overholtzer

7KH�SKDVHV�ZHUH�JLYHQ�QDPHV�UDWKHU�WKDQ�QXPEHUV�WR�DYRLG�FRQIXVLRQ�ZLWK�%UXP¿HO¶V�3KDVH��±��designations. Otomí words were chosen for the periods when Xaltocan is thought to have been an

)LJXUH����3UREDELOLW\�GLVWULEXWLRQ�IRU�'HKH�SKDVH�GHWHUPLQDWLRQV��6DPSOHV�FDOLEUDWHG�LQGLYLG-

ually are shown in gray lines and with Bayesian model as black areas.

Page 11: A New Bayesian Chronology For Postclassic and Colonial Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

1087Bayesian Chronology for Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

2WRPt�SROLW\��D�1DKXDWO�ZRUG�IRU�WKH�SHULRG�GXULQJ�ZKLFK�ZH�VHH�D�GLVWDQFLQJ�IURP�2WRPt�HWKQLFLW\�and during which Xaltocan was subsequently incorporated into the Aztec Empire, and a Spanish

word for the colonial phase. All words chosen relate to the fact that Xaltocan was located on an

island.

7KH�UHVXOWLQJ�QHZ�GDWH�UDQJHV�IRU�DOO�FHUDPLF�SKDVHV�DUH�VLJQL¿FDQWO\�GLIIHUHQW�WKDQ�WKH�SKDVHV�LP-

SOLHG�E\�%UXP¿HO¶V������D��LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ�RI�PHGLDQ�14&�GDWHV��,Q�DGGLWLRQ�WR�WKH�QHZ�GLVWLQFWLRQ�EHWZHHQ�SUH�+LVSDQLF�$]WHF�,,,�DQG�HDUO\�FRORQLDO�$]WHF�,,,�DQG�,9��WKH�$]WHF�,,�DQG�,,,�GDWH�UDQJHV�UHVXOWLQJ�IURP�DQDO\VLV�RI�QHZ�VDPSOHV�IURP�VHFXUH�KRXVHKROG�FRQWH[WV�DUH�VLJQL¿FDQWO\�HDUOLHU��7KH�large number of determinations used in the proposed Bayesian model and the excellent understand-

ing of the stratigraphic context of the samples lends credence to these revisions.

)LJXUH����3UREDELOLW\�GLVWULEXWLRQ�IRU�+DL�SKDVH�GHWHUPLQDWLRQV��6DPSOHV�FDOLEUDWHG�LQGLYLGXDOO\�DUH�VKRZQ�in gray lines and with Bayesian model as black areas.

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1088 L Overholtzer

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����Bayesian Chronology for Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

In addition, the resulting posterior calendar year probability distributions for several 14&�GDWHV�SUHV-ents preliminary evidence for the timing of the contemporaneous consumption of Aztec I and II

wares by some residents while others used Aztec II pottery. This sample, while admittedly small,

SURYLGHV�WKH�¿UVW�VXFK�GDWD�VHW�IRU�FHQWUDO�0H[LFR��([FDYDWLRQV�IURP�WZR�KRXVHV�RQ�WKH�HDVWHUQ�HGJH�of the island indicated that the island had been expanded and people using Aztec II pottery had set-

tled on the new lakeshore by AD 1240. Three 14&�GDWHV��$$�������$$�������DQG�$$�������IURP�WKH�HDUOLHVW�SXUH�$]WHF�,,�PLGGHQV�ZHUH�DOO�HVWLPDWHG�LQ�WKH�%D\HVLDQ�PRGHO�WR�FDO�$'�����±������Also by 1240, households located in the center of Xaltocan had adopted Aztec II alongside Aztec I

SRWWHU\��)RU�WKH�2S�=�KRXVHKROG�H[FDYDWHG�E\�'H�/XFLD�DQG�%UXP¿HO��'H�/XFLD��������UHSRUWV�WKDW�14&�GDWHV�SODFH�$]WHF�,�RFFXSDWLRQ�RI�WKH�KRXVH�LQ�WKH�PLG���WK�WKURXJK�PLG���WK�FHQWXULHV��7KH�consumption of Aztec II pottery alongside Aztec I in this household is represented by a single sam-

SOH��$$�������IURP�D�VWUDWLJUDSKLFDOO\�ODWHU�PLGGHQ��WKLV�GDWH�ZDV�HVWLPDWHG�DW�FDO�$'�����±������'H�/XFLD�������������VHH�DOVR�2YHUKROW]HU�DQG�'H�/XFLD��IRUWKFRPLQJ���,Q�WKH�2S�=RF�KRXVHKROG�H[FDYDWHG�E\�%UXP¿HO��VHYHUDO�SXUH�$]WHF�,�GHSRVLWV�\LHOGHG�VDPSOHV�HVWLPDWHG�DW�����SUREDELOLW\�WR�DV�ODWH�DV�FDO�$'�����±�����RU�����±������7KH�HDUOLHVW�DGRSWLRQ�RI�$]WHF�,,�ZDUHV�DORQJVLGH�$]WHF�,�LQ�WKLV�KRXVHKROG�LV�UHSUHVHQWHG�E\�VWUDWLJUDSKLFDOO\�ODWHU�VDPSOH�%HWD��������IURP�DQ�LQ-

formal hearth associated with a sealed midden containing Aztec I and II rims. This determination

ZDV�FDOLEUDWHG�WR�KDYH�D�����OLNHOLKRRG�RI�GDWLQJ�WR�FDO�$'�����±������WKRXJK�XQIRUWXQDWHO\��WKLV�date has poor agreement in the model, as mentioned previously. The declining use of Aztec I in this

KRXVHKROG�LV�UHSUHVHQWHG�E\�VDPSOH�%HWD��������IURP�D�VWUDWLJUDSKLFDOO\�ODWHU�PLGGHQ�FRQWDLQLQJ�$]WHF�,�DQG�,,�SRWWHU\��WKLV�VDPSOH�ZDV�HVWLPDWHG�DW�����SUREDELOLW\�WR�FDO�$'�1240±����� Thus,

$]WHF�,�DQG�,,�KRXVHKROG�XVH�DW�;DOWRFDQ�FHUWDLQO\�EHJLQV�E\�WKH�PLG���WK�FHQWXU\��WKRXJK�ZKHQ�it ends remains unclear. More dates from additional household contexts are needed to assess the

potentially variable chronology of this consumption.

Figure 11 Comparison of cultural sequences in central Mexico, including new proposed chronology for Xaltocan

Page 14: A New Bayesian Chronology For Postclassic and Colonial Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

���� L Overholtzer

CONCLUSION

Precise understandings of past chronologies have always been a central concern of archaeologists.

1HZ�WRROV�VXFK�DV�%D\HVLDQ�VWDWLVWLFDO�PRGHOLQJ�RI�14&�GDWHV�SHUPLW�WKH�FRQVWUXFWLRQ�RI�FKURQRORJLHV�with more precise phases and individual 14&�GDWHV��,Q�WKLV�DUWLFOH��%D\HVLDQ�VWDWLVWLFDO�PRGHOLQJ�ZDV�applied to a suite of 54 14&�GDWHV�UDQJLQJ�IURP�FDO�$'����±�����IURP�KRXVHKROG�H[FDYDWLRQV�DW�Xaltocan. This modeling was compared to earlier chronologies at the site, and a new chronology

was proposed. The conclusions reached here are of broad relevance to central Mexican archaeolo-

J\�EHFDXVH�WKLV�DUWLFOH�SURYLGHV�DQ�H[WHQVLYH�UDGLRPHWULF�GDWD�VHW�IURP�VHDOHG��VWUDWL¿HG�GRPHVWLF�FRQWH[WV�VSDQQLQJ�WKH�(DUO\�3RVWFODVVLF�WR�(DUO\�&RORQLDO�SHULRGV��WKH�¿UVW�GDWD�VHW�RI�LWV�NLQG�LQ�WKH�Basin of Mexico.

The new chronology—composed of the Dehe, Hai, Tlalli, and Isla�SKDVHV²FODUL¿HV�WKH�WHPSRUDO�distribution of all four Postclassic and colonial indigenous Black-on-Orange ceramic types at Xalto-

FDQ��$]WHF�,±,9��$]WHF�,�SRWWHU\�ZDV�XVHG�IRU�RYHU�����\U�DIWHU�WKH�VLWH¶V�IRXQGLQJ�LQ�WKH���WK�FHQWX-

U\��$]WHF�,,�SRWWHU\�ZDV�DGRSWHG�LQ�KRXVHKROGV�LQ�WKH�PLG���WK�FHQWXU\��DORQJVLGH�$]WHF�,�FHUDPLFV�in descendants of the original inhabitants, and exclusively by settlers from a place without a tradi-

WLRQ�RI�XVLQJ�$]WHF�,�FHUDPLFV��$]WHF�,,,�SRWWHU\�ZDV�FRQVXPHG�E\�$'�������VRPH����\U�EHIRUH�WKH�VLWH¶V�FRQTXHVW�DQG����\U�SULRU�WR�LQFRUSRUDWLRQ�LQWR�WKH�$]WHF�(PSLUH��7KH�7ODOOL�SKDVH��WKHUHIRUH��does not correspond only to the period of Aztec rule at Xaltocan, but rather also includes several

decades of pre-conquest life. Distinguishing between pre- and post-conquest practices at Xaltocan

PXVW�UHO\�RQ�RWKHU�PHWKRGV��VXFK�DV�%D\HVLDQ�VWDWLVWLFDO�PRGHOLQJ�RI�VSHFL¿F�VWUDWLJUDSKLF�VHTXHQF-HV��DV�ZDV�GRQH�IRU�SDUWLFXODU�KRXVHKROG�FRQWH[WV��2YHUKROW]HU��������RU�SHUKDSV�VHULDWLRQ�RI�ZKROH�contexts using multiple statistical techniques, as Smith has done for sites outside the Basin of Mexi-

FR��6PLWK�������6PLWK�DQG�'RHUVKXN�������+DUH�DQG�6PLWK�������6PLWK�HW�DO���������8QIRUWXQDWHO\��H[LVWLQJ�GDWD�DUH�LQVXI¿FLHQW�WR�FKDUDFWHUL]H�IXOO\�WKH�FKURQRORJ\�RI�$]WHF�,9�XVH�DW�;DOWRFDQ��EXW�preliminary evidence suggests that Aztec IV pottery was consumed in low frequencies during the

SUH�+LVSDQLF�SHULRG��DQG�HDUO\�FRORQLDO�UHVLGHQWV�XVHG�PDLQO\�$]WHF�,,,�DQG�,9�SRWWHU\�XQWLO�QHDUO\�the end of the 17th century, if not later. While this research makes progress in clarifying dates for

WKH�DUULYDO�RI�$]WHF�,±,9�SRWWHU\�DW�;DOWRFDQ��DQG�VXJJHVWV�WKDW�DGRSWLRQ�RI�WKHVH�ZDUHV�PD\�KDYH�varied by household or neighborhood, additional excavations of household contexts across the site

DUH�QHHGHG�WR�GH¿QH�WKH�QDWXUH�RI�WKDW�YDULDWLRQ��H�J��KRZ�ORQJ�GLIIHUHQW�KRXVHKROGV�FRQWLQXHG�WR�XVH�Aztec I pottery alongside the newly adopted Aztec II ware.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

7KLV�UHVHDUFK�ZDV�FRQGXFWHG�ZLWK�WKH�SHUPLVVLRQ�RI�0H[LFR¶V�1DWLRQDO�,QVWLWXWH�RI�$QWKURSRORJ\�DQG�+LVWRU\��7KH�*RQ]iOH]�6iQFKH]�IDPLO\�JUDFLRXVO\�DOORZHG�H[FDYDWLRQV�RQ�WKHLU�SURSHUW\��DQG�WKH�SURMHFW�DOVR�EHQH¿WHG�IURP�WKH�VXSSRUW�RI�WKH�;DOWRFDQ�FXOWXUDO�FHQWHU��WKH�;DOWRFDQ�GHOHJDGRV��DQG�WKH�*UDQ�6HxRULR�GH�;DOWRFDQ�+LVWRULFDO�6RFLHW\��7KLV�UHVHDUFK�ZDV�VXSSRUWHG�E\�D�'LVVHUWD-WLRQ�)LHOGZRUN�*UDQW��������IURP�WKH�:HQQHU�*UHQ�)RXQGDWLRQ�IRU�$QWKURSRORJLFDO�5HVHDUFK��D�1DWLRQDO�6FLHQFH�)RXQGDWLRQ�'RFWRUDO�'LVVHUWDWLRQ�,PSURYHPHQW�*UDQW� �����������D�<RXQJ�([-

SORUHU�*UDQW�IURP�WKH�1DWLRQDO�*HRJUDSKLF�6RFLHW\��D�*UDQW�LQ�$LG�RI�5HVHDUFK�IURP�WKH�6LJPD�;L�)RXQGDWLRQ��D�1DWLRQDO�6FLHQFH�)RXQGDWLRQ�*UDGXDWH�5HVHDUFK�)HOORZVKLS��D�*UDGXDWH�5HVHDUFK�*UDQW�IURP�WKH�8QLYHUVLW\�5HVHDUFK�*UDQWV�&RPPLWWHH�DW�1RUWKZHVWHUQ�8QLYHUVLW\��DQG�D�5HVHDUFK�*UDQW�IURP�WKH�/H&URQ�)RVWHU�DQG�)ULHQGV�RI�$QWKURSRORJ\�DW�1RUWKZHVWHUQ�8QLYHUVLW\��-XDQ�-RHO�Viveros�6iQFKH]�GUHZ�)LJXUH����DOO�RWKHU�¿JXUHV�DUH�E\�WKH�DXWKRU��,�ZRXOG�OLNH�WR�WKDQN�(OL]DEHWK�%UXP¿HO��5RVHPDU\�-R\FH��&\QWKLD�5RELQ��DQG�0DU\�:HLVPDQWHO�IRU�WKHLU�IHHGEDFN�DQG�VXSSRUW��-�+HDWK�$QGHUVRQ��7UDYLV�%UXFH��DQG�$QG\�0XOOHQ�DOVR�SURYLGHG�KHOSIXO�VXJJHVWLRQV��WKRXJK�DOO�remaining errors are my own.

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����Bayesian Chronology for Occupation at Xaltocan, Mexico

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