A New Anthropogenic Emission Inventory System for Asia in Support of Atmospheric Modeling Qiang Zhang, 1 David G. Streets, 1 Kebin He, 2 Shekar Reddy, 3 Akiyoshi Kannari, 4 Il-Soo Park, 5 Joshua Fu, 6 and Zbigniew Klimont 7 1 Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, USA 2 Tsinghua University, Beijing, China 3 UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK 4 Independent Researcher, Tokyo, Japan 5 Meteorological Research Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea 6 University of Tennessee, Knoxville, USA 7 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria 6 th CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, USA October 1-3, 2007
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A New Anthropogenic Emission Inventory System for Asia in Support of Atmospheric Modeling Qiang Zhang, 1 David G. Streets, 1 Kebin He, 2 Shekar Reddy,
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A New Anthropogenic Emission Inventory System for Asia in Support of Atmospheric Modeling
A New Anthropogenic Emission Inventory System for Asia in Support of Atmospheric Modeling
Qiang Zhang,1 David G. Streets,1 Kebin He,2 Shekar Reddy,3 Akiyoshi Kannari,4 Il-Soo Park,5 Joshua Fu,6 and Zbigniew
Klimont7
1Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, USA2Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
3UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK4Independent Researcher, Tokyo, Japan
5Meteorological Research Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea6University of Tennessee, Knoxville, USA
7International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
6th CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, USAOctober 1-3, 2007
TRACE-P inventory for the year 2000:It’s now 2007, and we have learned a lot from its use!
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Scope and methodology of a new, dynamicemission inventory dataset for Asia
Updated inventory with improved methodology
Incorporate from best available datasets
Extrapolate from TRACE-P inventory
We develop a new Asia emission inventory dataset with improved methodology
The best available national inventories incorporated
New VOC speciation methodology
Improved spatial allocation
Updated temporal profiles
Constraint from top-down method (inverse model/satellite)
We found that detailed characterization of technology is necessary to improve CO, PM, and HC emission estimates
Good Efficiency
Moderate Efficiency
Poor Efficiency
TRACE-P level of analysis
Lime
We use a dynamic methodology to representthe rapid technology change in the last decade
Emission factors could change very quickly with the fast technology renewal progress: trends of technology distribution and NOx emission factors in power plants
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g/k
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>300 MW
200-300 MW
100-200 MW
<100 MW
Nox Emission Factor
We have developed a technology-based PM emission modelfor China, as an extension of the RAINS-PM model
We first developed a size-fractioned PMemission inventory for China
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>PM10
PM2.5-10
PM2.5
This PM inventory has been used in CMAQ for evaluating the regional impacts on Beijing air quality in support of Olympic plan
High emitters around Beijing
The best available national emission inventory datasets are incorporated to our system
Providing gridded emissions by mechanisms directly, using a speciation/spatial allocation matrix approach
Updated temporal profile is developed using various local information, e.g., monthly profile of NOx emissions by sector
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FEBM
ARAPR
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AUGSEP
OCTNOV
DEC
All Sources
Power
Industry
Heating & Residential
Local information is very helpful for improving spatial precision of inventories, e.g. NOx emissions from power plants
Allocate by population Allocate by unit information
The satellite-observed NOx emission increase in China could be directly verified by our high-resolution emission data
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2004 NOx – 2001 NOx, power plants
2001: 4.6 Tg-NO2
2004: 7.1 Tg-NO2, +54%
Summer
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Inventory
Satellite
We are finishing a comparison of NOx emission trends in China between emission inventories and satellite imagery
WINTER SUMMER
The satellite and inventory trends agree well in the summer,but the satellite trend grows faster in the wintertime
The bias in winter might come from a combination of Underestimate of seasonal variation in emissions, and
Large error of satellite retrievals in winter
Inventory: +57%
Satellite: +108%
Inventory: +62%
Satellite: +67%
Our new CO inventory now agrees well with top-down estimates over East China region
Source: Kopacz et al., 2007
Final product: gridded emissions over Asia at 30 min × 30 min resolution
PM2.5, 2006 VOC, 2006
Our new emission estimates for Asia for the year 2006 are significantly higher than TRACE-P inventory for the year 2000
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China
Asia
IMPORTANT NOTE: The emission changes between the two inventories reflect a combination of: (a) actual growth in emissions due to increasing economic development, (b) the effects of replacing the TRACE-P inventory by local inventories in several countries, and (c) improvements and corrections made to the original TRACE-P inventory.
The changes should not be viewed solely as real emissions growth!
– Fine grid emissions are available on a collaboration basis with the agreement of Chinese collaborators
Further reading for methodologies and numbers
Streets, D.G., J. Hao, Y. Wu, J. Jiang, M. Chan, H. Tian, and X. Feng (2005), Anthropogenic mercury emissions in China, Atmos. Environ., 39, 7789-7806.
Streets, D.G., Q. Zhang, L Wang, K. He, J. Hao, Y Wu, Y. Tang, and G.R. Carmichael (2006), Revisiting China’s CO emissions after TRACE-P: Synthesis of inventories, atmospheric modeling, and observations, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D14306, doi: 10.1029/2006JD007118.
Zhang Q., Streets, D.G., K. He, Y.X. Wang, A. Richter, J. P. Burrows, I. Uno, C. J. Jang, D. Chen, Z. Yao, and Y. Lei (2007), NOx emission trends for China, 1995-2004: The view from the ground and the view from space, J. Geophys. Res., in press
Zhang Q., Streets D.G., K. He, and Z. Klimont (2007), Major components of China’s anthropogenic primary particulate emissions, Environ. Res. Lett., submitted
Next step: provide high-resolution emissions by combining GIS information and county-level statistics
0.1 degree, without GIS information 0.1 degree, with GIS information
0.5 degree, without GIS informationCounty emissions
Next step: develop a new multi-resolution emission model system for China (Argonne and Tsinghua)
Acknowledgements
USEPA, especially Dr. Carey Jang
NASA INTEX project
China National Basic Research Program (973) & National High-Technology Research Program (863)