UNDERSTANDING THE RISK AND OPPORTUNITY LANDSCAPE A holistic approach to the resilience of London’s infrastructure Dr William Hynes, Managing Director, Future Analytics Consulting Base London - 26 June 2014, Guildhall, London
UNDERSTANDING THE RISK AND OPPORTUNITY LANDSCAPE
A holistic approach to the resilience of London’s infrastructure
Dr William Hynes, Managing Director, Future Analytics ConsultingBase London - 26 June 2014, Guildhall, London
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Presentation overview
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The Issue of Urbanisation
Urbanisation and Security
London’s Challenges
Urban Resilience – Towards a Holistic Approach
The Emerging Resilience Agenda
The HARMONISE Project
Concluding Points and Introduction to the Fringe Session
the issue of Urbanisation... “The world’s most important phenomenon”
- Hoornweg, D. et al, 2010
191310% of the
world’s populationlived in cities
201350% of the
world’s populationliving in cities
205075% of the
world’s populationwill live in cities
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1911
2011
Life in London (100 years of change)
Inner London - 4,997,741Outer London - 2,160,134Greater London - 7,157,875
POPULATION 1911 POPULATION 2011
Inner London - 3,231,900Outer London - 4,942,100Greater London - 8,173,900
the issue of Urbanisation... “The world’s most important phenomenon”
- Hoornweg, D. et al, 2010
we are future
analyticsUrbanisation and Security
Processes of urbanisation intersect with multiple issues within the security arena, including:
Food security; Human security; Energy security; Climate change & natural disasters; Public health & disease; and, Economic development & trade.
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The future resilience of urban infrastructure - safeguards of global stability or amplifiers of cascading
shocks?
The Complex Urban Environment
Cities and their supporting infrastructures are increasingly interconnected and interdependent
London’s ChallengesFuture Growth Options for London
By 2030 London is expected to
have grown by an extra Borough
every 3 years
= population of 38 Boroughs within 33 boroughs of space.
201350% of the
world’s populationliving in cities
London’s ChallengesHousing Affordability
In 2013, house prices in
London were rising 6
times as fast as income
£517
£653£175,826
£509,000
london
nATIONALLY
Weekly Earnings House Prices
2013 2013
londonAverage
england average
London’s Challenges
Demand for the Tube
has grown by over 10% in the last five years
alone.
Infrastructure Demand
In 2013 London Underground carried 1.265bn passengers (an extra 36 million from 2012)
London’s Challenges
7% x7London retains just 7% of taxation to invest in
infrastructure – New York for example x7 that amount
Infrastructure Investment
urban resilience
the capacity of a city’s economic, social, political and physical infrastructure systems to absorb shocks and stresses and still retain their basic function and structure
ResilientCity.org (2010)
“ “”
Definition
urban resilience
President Policy Directive 21 - Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience February 12, 2013 USA
...the ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions... the ability to withstand and recover... “
”
Other Definitions Relating to Resilience
Quality of a system
Strategy
Process
Policy
Way of thinking
Approach
Concept
Principle
Resilience
is a..
urban resilience10 Perceptions
Practice
Response
The grouping of the
perceptions
”The Resilience Cycle
Integrated resilience cycle
recovery: Resourcefulness
and rapidity
Mitigation: robustness and redundancy
Preparedness: robustness and redundancy
Response: Resourcefulness
and rapidity
2
1
4
3
Evolving Scope and Focus
The Emerging Resilience Agenda:
Curitiba, Brazil
Copenhagen, Denmark
Oslo, Norway
Christchurch, New Zealand
Rotterdam, the Netherlands
London, UK
Evolving Scope and Focus
1 & 2
1
4
4
3
1 & 2
”Curitiba -Sustainable, innovative urban planning
Copenhagen - Towards carbon neutrality
Natural Disaster Recovery -A Stronger, More Resilient New York
Rotterdam - Measuring success in security enhancement
San Francisco -First Chief Resilience Officer
London -The Olympics Legacy
The Resilience Cycle Evolving Scope and Focus
The Ongoing Debate: Security Vs. Efficiency?
Beijing – Airport Style Security at Subway Stations – May 2014
The Regjeringskvartalet Site , Oslo (Governmental Quarter)
Dispersing government buildings or maintaining their close integration –
The Resilience Cycle Is this type of efficiency a risk?
[there is] a mounting recognition that disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and sustainable development are inextricably linked. These issues present mutually dependant challenges, which require collaborative, integrated strategies, strong governance, and innovative technological and financial solutions
UNISDR, 2012
“”
THE NEED FOR HArMONISATION: WITHIN LONDON
The Reason Why
The capacity of large scale urban built infrastructure to withstand, resist or reduce the impacts of sudden extreme events in terms of magnitude, duration and external effects
“” www.harmonise.eu
Introducing HARMONISE
THE NEED FOR HArMONISATION: WITHIN LONDON
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 312013
Planning, Design &
Construction
Temporary Event or Activity
Management & Operation
Integrated resilience cycle
recovery: resourcefulness
and rapidity
Mitigation: robustness and redundancy
Preparedness: robustness and redundancy
Response: resourcefulness
and rapidity
Introducing HARMONISE
HARMONISING into the resilience cycle
THE NEED FOR HArMONISATION: WITHIN LONDON
You are invited to a fringe event ‘Global Infrastructure Resilience:
How to Proactively Secure London’s Future’ Panel Discussion will take place in the The Print Room, Guildhall
at 1.00 – 1.45pm
Full conference lunch available at this event.
Thank You