A Guide to Handicapping in Singapore. Definition of Handicap. “Handicap” is a race in which the weights to be carried by the horses entered are adjusted.

A Guide to Handicapping in Singapore

Definition of Handicap.

“Handicap” is a race in which the weights to be carried by the horses entered are adjusted by the handicapper for the purpose of equalising their chances of winning after the

time limited for entering.

MRA Rule:

Collins Dictionary:

In horse racing a handicap is a race in which some competitors are given a disadvantage of extra weight in

an attempt to give everyone an equal chance of winning.

The operative word is EQUALISE.

HANDICAPPING - Art or Science ?

“A bit of both - It can never be an exact

science because OPINION as well as FACT is

involved.” Late Phil Bull -TIMEFORM

Handicapping in Singapore.

The ever-increasing exposure of Singapore to the international world of thoroughbred horse racing has made it important to have a handicap system that

is readily recognized by the global community.

With this objective in mind 'merit handicapping' has been implemented as the method of rating horses in Singapore since April 2001.

Whilst a system of handicapping on merit provides for competitive racing domestically the additional benefit is the accurate assessment of the racing

standard of Singapore's horses relative to that of the global thoroughbred herd. What is Handicapping Really?

Two great sports use handicap systems to 'level the playing field' - Golf and Horse Racing. The whole idea is that by the allotment of some type of

impediment participants of different ability can compete against each other on equitable terms and therefore provide for interesting competition.

In golf a player's handicap is based on his recorded score as compared to par for the course. The resultant handicap is the number of strokes he

requires to be deducted from his gross score so that it would give him a net score equal to par. The better the golfer the less strokes he needs to score

par.

Weight is used to HandicapIn horse racing Handicappers use the weight that a horse has to carry to

handicap.

By either increasing or reducing the weight they attempt to equalize the chances of horses of different ability. The better the horse the higher the weight.

Handicapping is the foundation stone on which thoroughbred horse racing is built. It was introduced in the middle of the 19th century to British racing by

Admiral Rous, the famous leader of the Jockey Club, who was able to express the ability of horses as a function of weight. He also introduced a scale on which

horses of different ages could be compared which has become known as Weight-for-Age (WFA).

What is Merit Handicapping?As the name suggests, handicapping on merit means that a horse's allocated

weight in a race will have been earned by the measurement of his previous performances. This means that the revealed ability of the animal is the

primary basis for determining his handicap rating.

A A beats beats B B by 10 metres. by 10 metres.BB beats beats CC by 10 metres. by 10 metres.A A meets meets CC - Result : - Result :

A A beats beats CC by 20 metres. by 20 metres.

Now if Now if AA carries some weight and races against carries some weight and races against BB - there is a dead heat. - there is a dead heat.

To get the same result when To get the same result when AA meets meets C C it requires it requires AA to carry twice the to carry twice the weight.weight.

If we take a human example.Assume Man A runs against Man B over a distance of 100 metres.

Both have a good start and Man A beats B by 10m. Next B runs against Man C and wins by 10m.

So when A and C line up the result should be predictable: On available evidence A should beat C by 20m, all other things being equal.

Merit TheoryMerit TheoryIf If AA beats beats B B by 10 m, and by 10 m, and BB beats beats CC by 5 m by 5 m

Then what would the “handicap” be?Then what would the “handicap” be?

If it is known that 5 kg stops the average runner by 5 m If it is known that 5 kg stops the average runner by 5 m then on ‘then on ‘MERITMERIT’ the weights in a merit handicap would ’ the weights in a merit handicap would

look something like :look something like :

AA carries 15 kg carries 15 kgB B carries 5 kg carries 5 kg

CC carries nothing carries nothing

Predicting who wins is not Predicting who wins is not straightforward - the runners are now straightforward - the runners are now

“COMPETITIVE”“COMPETITIVE”

Variables!To complicate the example further the distance can be increased from

100 to 400 metres.

A will have a problem: the weight on his back will slow him down more and more the further he runs. So to achieve the same result as over 100 metres

the weight on his back will have to be reduced.

But what if B and C are much better suited to 400m than to 100m, and A cannot run that far at all? In other words a change of distance could create circumstances for which historical information related to the old distance

cannot be used.

And so with horses. Some are better suited to certain distances than others. Some carry weight better, because of age or build. Some cope

better when the ground is soft, others only when it is hard. Add to these other factors such as the horse’s well being, fitness, race tactics,

jockeyship etc. and the size of the problem of handicapping a race faced by the handicapper becomes clearer.

Merit HandicappingMerit Handicappinginvolves Rating adjustments based on FACTS as involves Rating adjustments based on FACTS as

well as JUDGEMENTSwell as JUDGEMENTS

Facts areFacts are

The actual weight differences between the horses.The actual weight differences between the horses.The actual margins between horses at the end of a race.The actual margins between horses at the end of a race.The drag effect of weight over different racing distances.The drag effect of weight over different racing distances.

Judgements includeJudgements include

Did he get a fair start?Did he get a fair start?Did he have to race wide?Did he have to race wide?

Was the pace of the race true or false?Was the pace of the race true or false?Was the horse impeded during the race?Was the horse impeded during the race?

How did the horse act in the going?How did the horse act in the going?Was the horse racing over a suitable distance?Was the horse racing over a suitable distance?

Was a large margin of victory truly representative of his Was a large margin of victory truly representative of his superiority?superiority?

What is Handicapping Really ?

What is Merit Handicapping?

Method of allocating weight impediments to equalise the chances of horses, based on measurable facts in

conjunction with the interpretation of race results.

Measuring MeritThe measurable factors are the actual weight that the horse carries, the

margin of victory or defeat, the drag effect of weight over different racing distances and the age of a horse.

Some non-quantitative factors, subject to interpretation by the handicapper, are things like the quality of opposition, the pace of the race, the effect of having raced wide, being hindered during the running, the impact of the

going and the apparent well being of the animal.

Of the measurable factors the drag effect of weight needs explanation. It is apparent that it is more difficult to carry weight the further one goes. In

horse racing it is generally accepted that one kilogram slows a horse down by one length over one mile (1600 metres). Distances shorter than this

necessitate the allocation of more weight to achieve the same one length 'drag' on a horse whilst less weight is required over longer distances.

Drag Effect of Weight.Drag Effect of Weight.

DISTANCE

KILOGRAMS

1200

1600

2400

About 1 kgequals 1 length

@ 1600 m

10.5 1.5

About 1.5 kgequals 1 length

@ 1200 m

About 0.5 kgequals 1 length

@ 2400 m

Drag Effect of Weight

Measurement of beaten margins expressed in units of 0.5 kg.

Sprint Mile Intermediate Long ExtendedBeatenMargin up to 1200m up to 1700m up to 2200m up to 2600m beyond 2600m

up to 0.5 1 to 2 1 1 1 11 3 2 2 2 1

1.5 5 3 3 2 22 6 4 3 3 2

2.5 7 5 4 3 23 8 6 5 4 3

3.5 9 7 5 4 34 10 8 6 5 3

4.5 11 9 7 5 45 12 10 8 6 4

Generally applied scale to losing margins

With the knowledge of the effects of weight over different race distances it is possible to equate the margin of victory or defeat as a measure of weight.

The application of simple mathematics to any race result whereby a race rating is allotted based on the (1) the actual weight carried by a horse (2) less the weight value of the margin of defeat. This gives every horse an

actual 'weight value' for his performance in that race.

Once these relative weight values have been determined for each horse in a race the handicapper now uses his judgement to effectively quantify the

overall value of the race.

Comparisons will be made based on the level of ratings of each horse prior to the event. It is assumed that one or more of the contestants achieved a level of performance consistent with their pre-race rating, in other words

they run to 'par'. These animals are used as 'line horses'.

They are the “key” against which the other horses in a race will be measured. “Line horses” are generally consistent and genuine animals and therefore their performance can more often than not be relied upon. A line

horse would also preferably be an animal that has run a place.

Used to ‘measure’ the race.Used to ‘measure’ the race.The equine version of golf’s ‘PAR’The equine version of golf’s ‘PAR’

Identify an individual that generally performs to a consistent Identify an individual that generally performs to a consistent level. level.

Often the overall result can identify the race level - E.g. if the Often the overall result can identify the race level - E.g. if the 3rd, 4th and 5th finish together then they can be assumed to 3rd, 4th and 5th finish together then they can be assumed to

have run to their handicap. have run to their handicap.

How and Why ?How and Why ?

By comparing against the performance of the “line horse” the By comparing against the performance of the “line horse” the performances of the other horses in the race can be performances of the other horses in the race can be

determined.determined.

Do the HANDICAP

There are no valid excuses in the race

Horse KG Margins/Lengths Equiv Comp*

1st FLOWER BOWL 55 - - 0 +4

2nd PAINTER 55 Nk 0.25 1 +3

3rd WOOD OWL 55 0.5 0.75 2 +2

4th PAPER CHASE 55 1 1.75 4 0

5th PHONE CALL 55 3 4.75 10 -6

6th PRINCE 55 2.75 7.50 15 -11

Adjustments

5 points

2 points

1 point

0 points

-2 points

-3 points

Line Horse - No Adjustment.

1600m Handicap

*Comp = the performance of each horse compared to the line horse

Horse FIN KGEATON SQUARE 1 58 1.75 0 75 58 60 63 (+4) 77 (+2)

FURY 2 58 1.75 4 58 56 58 59 (+1) 59 0

RIO GRANDE 3 58 2 4 59 56 58 59 0 59 0

VICTORY PATCH 4 55 2.75 6 51 52 54 51 0 51 0

PINK CHAMPAGNE 5 55 6.75 14 50 48 50 43 (-7) 48 (-2)

COMPLETE HARMONY 6 55 7.25 15 44 47.5 49.5 42 (-2) 42 (-2)

TITAN DRAGON 7 58 10.5 22 41 47 49 41 0 41 0

RACE ASSESSMENT

Pen/Relief

ASSESSMENTRESULT

DragAdj

(1/2 kg)New

Rating

ActualWeight

Performanceagainst winner

ActualWeight

Performanceagainst line

horse

ActualRating

Performanceagainst line

horse

PreRaceRating

Lengthsbehindwinner

ActualRating

differenceagainst

Line horse

RIO GRANDE ; VICTORY PATCH ; TITAN DRAGON = ‘Line Horses’

FURY runs within 1 point.

Line Horses Now, if we were to assume that EATON SQUARE is the line horse

Do the ratings fit?

75 0

71 (+13)

71 (+12)

63 (+12)

55 (+5)

54 (+10)

53 (+12)

Even though he has won it is clear that EATON SQUARE cannot be used as the key to rate this race. If

he is assumed to have run to his rating then all the other horses have run well above their pre-race rating

assessments - a highly unlikely event.

Set Weight Race (WFA) 1600m

Weight-for Age

Scale that measures physical progress of the Scale that measures physical progress of the thoroughbred horse as he matures.thoroughbred horse as he matures.

Sprinters mature more quickly than stayers.Sprinters mature more quickly than stayers.

It is harder to carry weight the further one goes.It is harder to carry weight the further one goes.

Basic PrinciplesBasic Principles

Weight for AgeIn 1855 Admiral Rous introduced a table that measures the progress of

maturity that takes place on average in every thoroughbred. It expresses, in terms of weight, what horses of different ages, over a given distance, at

different times of the year, should carry to equalise any difference in maturity. Although introduced nearly 150 years ago the Admiral's WFA Scale has stood the test of time. This scale, with only minor variations, is applied throughout

the racing world.

Weight-for-Age is best described as the physical progress a horse makes as it matures. By the age of 18-24 months a horse will have achieved 95% of it's

mature height and weight, and by the age of four full maturity will be reached.

In general term's sprinters mature more quickly than stayers , and the scale takes this into account. From a handicapping point of view the immaturity factor must be taken into consideration when assessing a young horse's

performance, and where necessary the appropriate compensation should be credited.

Adjustments to RatingsIn merit handicapping a horse's rating is adjusted based on performance.

There is no arbitrary or standard penalty.

In handicap races it can be assumed that the winner has 'beaten the handicap' and as such his performance will not be used as the yardstick to rate the race.

There are occasions when the second, third or even fourth placed horses will be rated as having 'beaten the handicap'. A handicapper will base his race

assessment on his interpretation of the performance of the line horse(s) and adjustments to ratings of other horses will be made relative to these horses

and with consideration of the animal's overall rating profile.

In races where the weight allocations are made by terms or conditions the assessment of the race is a lot less straightforward.

In a level weight contest the horse with the highest rating is more likely to win, if he doesn't there are likely to be tangible reasons as to why he didn't - for

example the distance of the race did not suit. But here again, the line horses will provide a clue as to the level of ratings of the horses in the race.

In these races it is quite possible that a winner may receive a rating adjustment that is less than a placed horse.

When making adjustments to a horse's rating the previous record of the animal is taken into account. Most horses reveal their level of ability early in their careers,

therefore out of character performances must be treated with caution.

The aim of rating adjustments is to 'level the playing field', a winner must still remain competitive, and the beaten horses must have rating adjustments where

necessary to make them more competitive.

Adjustments to Ratings Remember, the rating assessment is a matter of comparing performance

against weight carried against what opposition.

Over a period of time the cross-referencing of many lines of form establishes where a horse fits in terms of the whole population.

This, in effect, is what is known as the 'long handicap' where the measured ability of the animal, as reflected by his rating, places him at some position in an

imaginary handicap for all horses.

The relative abilities of two different animals can then be quantitatively gauged, even to be compared with horses from different eras or generations.

Winners2 to 10 points in Handicaps. 2 or more points in Terms Races. High assessments are possible in Fixed Weight and WFA races.

Placed0 to 5 points as determined by performance against ‘Line Horse.Placed horses in non-features races are not promoted in Class.

Unplaced

0 to 8 points relief based on Performance Profile.Last start winner, Veterinary excuse and returning from layoff - No Relief

The General Guidelines to rating Reassessments.The General Guidelines to rating Reassessments.(1)

Winners receive an upwards adjustment based on the margin and manner of victory, quality of opposition and weight differentials.

(2)Placed horses receive necessary adjustments based on proximity to the ‘Line Horse’.

(3)Unplaced runners receive relief based on overall performance profile.

ZHALUTE = ‘Line Horse’

Open Benchmark 67 - 1600mOpen Benchmark 67 - 1600m

Horse FIN KG LBH Pre RRSTAR SAPPHIRE 1 55 - 0 59 63 (+4) 65 (+6) Won easily

CASH FORTUNE 2 55 1.3 3 59 60 (+1) 60 (+1) Wide on turn

ZHALUTE 3 55 1.8 4 60 60 0 60 0 Line horse

MAUMILL 'S MAGIC 4 55 2.3 5 59 58 (-1) 59 0 Held up 200m

J ESTER'S ROMANCE 5 51 3.5 7 52 49 (-3) 51 (-1) Not competitive

J UNESON 6 54 4.3 9 58 53 (-5) 56 (-2) Not competitive

STRATEGIC ALLIANCE 7 55 4.5 9 60 55 (-5) 60 0 Last start winner

DOUBLE TAP 8 55 4.6 9 59 54 (-5) 56 (-3) Not competitive last 5

CRY STAL CITY 9 59 4.6 9 67 62 (-5) 67 0 Very slow to jump

NARCISSUS 10 56 6.3 13 61 52 (-9) 58 (-3) Not competitive last 5

EAGER EAGLE 11 58 7.5 15 66 55 (-11) 64 (-2) Not competitive last 2

Y ABONGA 12 55 8.3 17 59 46 (-13) 59 0 3 month layoff

SECRET SUCCESS 13 53 19 38 56 22 (-34) 56 0 Vet report

GREEN L IGHT 14 53 20 40 56 24 (-36) 56 0 Vet report

Pen/Relief

RESULT

Example of Race Assessment and Rating AdjustmentsASSESSMENT

NewRating

ReasonDragAdj

ActualLH Adj

LegendFin = Finishing PositionKG = Weight CarriedLBH = Lengths behind the winnerDrag Adj = adjustment made against the winner for the beaten marginPre = Pre Race Rating of the horseRR = Race Rating for the horseActual LH Adj = points adjustment against the “Line Horse”New Rating = The actual rating of the performancePen/Relief = The handicappers final rating based on assessment

75

5/g

Date Class Dist KG Finish Margin 1st/2ndRace

Rating12-Aug-00 CL4 1600 59 1 0.5 NOBLE LIGHT 7527-Aug-00 CL3 1600 57 3 5.3 EMPEROR'S FLAG 8109-Sep-00 CL3 2000 58 4 0.4 TACOBARRY 7223-Sep-00 CL3 1600 58 1 0.1 BIG BORIS 7714-Oct-00 CL2 1400 53.5 8 8.6 GOLDEN FLAG 6721-Oct-00 BTT 2000 53.5 3 3.5 STRONG WIN 8129-Oct-00 CL2 1800 54.5 7 6.9 SUPREME ECHO 6809-Feb-01 CL2 1000 52 10 11.9 GOLD BULLET 4603-Mar-01 CL2 1200 52 12 9.5 ALWAYS MINE 6114-Apr-01 CL2 1400 52.5 6 2.75 HORSE PROSPERITY 7427-Apr-01 CL3-1 1400 59 3 0.85 SETON HALL 7511-May-01 CL2 1600 54 2 0.75 LORD BERTIE 7826-May-01 BM90 1600 52 4 2 KERES ATTACK 7408-Jun-01 CL3 1400 59 1 0.05 CONTANDO 8007-Jul-01 CL2 1400 55.5 4 1.05 GALA BOY 7814-Jul-01 CL2 1600 54 2 3.25 CONTANDO 7704-Aug-01 BM95 1400 50.5 9 6.25 CONTANDO 6911-Aug-01 BM80 2000 57.5 9 50 MAUNGATAUTIRI 5

HANKS

Looking at his overall rating profile and recent form what is a fair rating at this point in time?

Real advantages of a Merit System of Handicapping.

• Internationally recognised Handicapping System.

• Merit System provides for competitive racing.

• Merit System provides link to the International Classifications.