A Flexible Sea Level Generator for Small Island States Xianfu Lu (SIS09) By At AIACC Asia Regional Workshop March 25~27, 2003 Bangkok, Thailand.

A Flexible Sea Level Generator for Small Island States

Xianfu Lu (SIS09)By

At AIACC Asia Regional Workshop

March 25~27, 2003

Bangkok, Thailand

1. Research question;

2. Methodology used to address the research question;

3. Progress made so far;

4. Challenges ahead;

5. Possible solutions to overcome the difficulties

Presentation outline

1. Research question

What are the likely sea level changes over the next century in the pacific islands?

Overview of the SIS09 project

2. Methodology

Global sea level rise projections

MAGICC

Regional sea level rise scenarios

wide range of emissions scenarios and climate model parameterizations

Sea level change patterns from GCM experiments

Pattern Scaling

Local relative sea level rise scenarios

Tide gauge records

Local SL trend analysis

3. Progress made so far…

• Obtaining tide gauge records for the two case study sites (Fiji & Cook Islands) from PSMSL;

3. Progress made so far… (continued)

• Obtaining tide gauge records for the two case study sites (Fiji & Cook Islands) from PSMSL;

• Analyzing local sea level trends at the study sites;SUVA-A (18.08S, 178.26E)

y = 7.0392x + 6951.7R2 = 0.4389

6800

6850

6900

6950

7000

7050

7100

7150

1973 1977 1986 1989 1991 1993 1995 1998 2000

Sea

Lev

el H

eigh

ts (m

illim

etre

s)

RAROTONGA (21.12S, 159.46W)

y = 4.2083x + 6893.3R2 = 0.1995

6750

6800

6850

6900

6950

7000

7050

1978 1980 1983 1985 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996

Sea

Lev

el H

eig

hts

(m

illim

etre

s)

• Obtaining tide gauge records for the two case study sites (Fiji & Cook Islands) from PSMSL;

• Analyzing local sea level trends at the study sites;

• Obtaining IPCC TAR-compatible global sea level rise projections;

3. Progress made so far… (continued)

• Obtaining tide gauge records for the two case study sites (Fiji & Cook Islands) from PSMSL;

• Analyzing local sea level trends at the study sites;

• Obtaining IPCC TAR-compatible global sea level rise projections;

• Obtaining regional sea level change patterns simulated by (IPCC TAR reviewed) GCM experiments;

3. Progress made so far… (continued)

• Obtaining tide gauge records for the two case study sites (Fiji & Cook Islands) from PSMSL;

• Analyzing local sea level trends at the study sites;

• Obtaining IPCC TAR-compatible global sea level rise projections;

• Obtaining regional sea level change patterns simulated by (IPCC TAR reviewed) GCM experiments;

• Initial analyses of large-scale sea level changes from GCM patterns and local ongoing sea level change trend

3. Progress made so far… (continued)

4. Challenges ahead…

• Relatively short tide gauge records hinder robust analysis of local sea level change contributing factors;

• How to disaggregate the eustatic changes and other components from the observed local mean sea level changes?

Local ongoing relative change

Global/regional sea level change

Local contributing factors:

-Vertical land movement;

-Local fluctuation;

-IPO;

-ENSO;

-…

time

Se

a L

eve

l Ch

an

ge

5. Possible solutions…

• Relatively short tide gauge records hinder robust analysis of local sea level change contributing factors.

Search for additional tide gauge records locally

• How to disaggregate the eustatic changes and other components from the observed local mean sea level changes?

Review literature to develop a method to derive local components of relative sea level change