A demographic dynamics A demographic dynamics system for the Brazilian system for the Brazilian Amazon’s municipalities Amazon’s municipalities Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho Daniel Nepstad Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais The Woods Hole Research Center
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A demographic dynamics system for the Brazilian Amazons municipalities Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho Daniel Nepstad Universidade.
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A demographic dynamics system for A demographic dynamics system for the Brazilian Amazon’s municipalitiesthe Brazilian Amazon’s municipalities
Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia
Britaldo Silveira Soares-FilhoDaniel Nepstad
Universidade Federal
de Minas Gerais The Woods Hole Research Center
To develop a model to project urban and To develop a model to project urban and rural populations for the Brazilian rural populations for the Brazilian Amazon’s municipalities by integrating Amazon’s municipalities by integrating data on data on mortalitymortality, , fertilityfertility, and , and migrationmigration
Methodological steps:Methodological steps:
Estimation of crude death rate (mortality), crude birth rate Estimation of crude death rate (mortality), crude birth rate
(natality), out-migration and urbanization rates by Amazonian (natality), out-migration and urbanization rates by Amazonian
municipality and Brazilian Statesmunicipality and Brazilian States
Projecting the above estimates using logistic functionProjecting the above estimates using logistic function
Determining the origin-destiny matrix for migratory Determining the origin-destiny matrix for migratory
movements between the above defined spatial units. movements between the above defined spatial units.
Model implementation in a system thinking software Model implementation in a system thinking software
(VENSIM) (VENSIM)
Model validation versus 2000’s IBGE data and other Model validation versus 2000’s IBGE data and other
Model output versus Model output versus 2000’s IBGE data2000’s IBGE data
ValidatiValidationon
Urban population
4,500,000
0
4,500,000
Rural population
Model outputs Model outputs aggregated by aggregated by
subregion subregion
The model is designed to handle various The model is designed to handle various scenarios of regional migrationscenarios of regional migration
Population growth and migration represent an important Population growth and migration represent an important underlying cause of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. underlying cause of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.
Linking population to Linking population to deforestationdeforestation
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
rural polulation density+5*rural polulation density*(1-%land of small landholders)
Dens
ity o
f def
ores
ted
land
CC=0.75 CC=0.75 n=382n=382
Anthropic pressure - a synthetic Anthropic pressure - a synthetic index for deforestation potentialindex for deforestation potential
PORTO VELHO
JI-PARANA
VILHENA
ARIQUEMESRIO BRANCO
CRUZEIRO DO SUL
MANAUSTEFE
HUMAITA
MAUES
BOA VISTA
BELEM
SANTAREM
MARABA
TUCURUI
ALTAMIRA
CAPANEMA
ITAITUBA
PARAGOMINAS
MACAPA
PALMAS
ARAGUAINA
SAO LUIS
IMPERATRIZ
BALSAS
CUIABA
RONDONOPOLIS
SINOP
CACERES BARRA DO GARCAS
ALTA FLORESTA
SORRISO
0.8-10.6-0.80.4-060.2-040.0-02
0 .82 to 1 .0
0 .54 to 0 .82
0 .29 to 0 .54
0 .1 to 0 .29
0 to 0 .1non-data
A component to be used to project A component to be used to project deforestation within SimAmazoniadeforestation within SimAmazonia
PORTO VELHOPORTO VELHO
JI-PARANAJI-PARANA
VILHENAVILHENA
ARIQUEMESARIQUEMESRIO BRANCORIO BRANCO
CRUZEIRO DO SULCRUZEIRO DO SUL
MANAUSMANAUSTEFETEFE
HUMAITAHUMAITA
MAUESMAUES
BOA VISTABOA VISTA
BELEMBELEM
SANTAREMSANTAREM
MARABAMARABA
TUCURUITUCURUI
ALTAMIRAALTAMIRA
ITAITUBAITAITUBA
BRAGANCABRAGANCA
PARAGOMINASPARAGOMINAS
MACAPAMACAPA
PALMASPALMAS
ARAGUAINAARAGUAINA
SAO LUISSAO LUIS
CUIABACUIABA
RONDONOPOLISRONDONOPOLIS
SINOPSINOP
CACERESCACERES BARRA DO GARCASBARRA DO GARCAS
ALTA FLORESTAALTA FLORESTA
SORRISOSORRISO
density of deforesteddensity of deforested
anthropic pressureanthropic pressure
Garcia R, Soares-Filho, Swayer, D. Dimensões sócio-econômicas e movimentos populacionais: uma regionalização da Amazônia brasileira. ABEP, 2004
A demographic dynamics system for A demographic dynamics system for the Brazilian Amazon’s municipalitiesthe Brazilian Amazon’s municipalities
That’s all, folks…Thanks!That’s all, folks…Thanks!