a Crystalline Silicon Solar Cell Vision

8/6/2019 a Crystalline Silicon Solar Cell Vision

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A Crystalline SiliconSolar Cell Vision

Richard M. SwansonSunPower Corporation


2/22

Questions I often hear from the

general publicWhy have solar cells never become asubstantial source of energy?

Too bad solar never made it, it seemedso promising back in the 1970s.When will the big breakthrough come that

will make solar cells practical?


3/22

Answers and Fun FactsSolar cell manufacturing is a vital and rapidlygrowing industry, enjoying over 30% annualgrowth over the last 10 years.

In 2002, more square inches of silicon was usedby the solar cell industry than the IC industry.There will be no big breakthrough that impacts theindustry for at least 10 years, and probably 20years.Instead, the existing technologies will evolve towhere they will be cost effective in mostdistributed applications in 10 years, and will becompetitive with fossil fuel generation in 20 years.


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Solar Cell Rules of Thumb

The annual production of solar modulesincreases ten-fold every decade

The price of solar cell modules decreasesby half every decade

2002: $3.00/W

2012: $1.50/W2022: $0.75/W


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World Solar Module Production 1980-2000 (MW)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Off-grid On-grid Consumer indoor

Source: Solarbuzz Inc.


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1

10

100

1 10 100 1000 10000

Cumulative Production (MW)

M o

d u

l e P r i c e

( 2 0 0 2 $ )

Maycock

Strategies

81% Progress Ratio

2002$3/W

1979$30/W

S o lar Ce ll P rice Exhibits a Classic

Experience Cu r ve Be ha vior


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Distribution of Progress Ratios22 Field Studies ( Dutton and Thomas

1984)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

50 60 70 80 90 100

Progress Ratio

F r e q u e n c y Note: These progress

ratios are firm level (notindustry wide) studies.

PV Progress Ratio

Taken from Robert Margolis Ph D

Thesis, 2002


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Factors Driving Past

Cost ReductionPoly silicon price: $300/kg $30/kgWire saws: now < $0.25/W

Larger wafers: 2 6Thinner wafers: 15 mil 8 milImproved efficiency: 10% 16%

Volume manufacturing: 1MW 100MWIncreased automation: none someImproved manufacturing processes


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1

10

100

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000


M o d u

l e P r i c e

( $ / W ) ( $ 2 0 0 2 )

Historical

Projected1980

$21.83/W

1985$11.20/W 1990

$6.07/W 1995$4.90/W

2000$3.89/W 2005

$2.70/W2010

$1.82/W2013

$1.44/W

Experience Cu r ves Can Be Used to

ProjectInto the Fu ture


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The Silicon Roadmap

Where Will Solar Cells Go in theFuture?

Developed at the2002 NR EL Silicon Workshop


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Poly-Silicon Cost Roadmap

10

15

20

25

30

35

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Year

P o l y C o s t ( $ / k g )

Mc-Si

CZ-Si


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Wafer Thickness Roadmap

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Year

W a f e r

T h i c k n e s s

( u m )

Mc-Si

CZ-Si


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Cell Efficiency Roadmap

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Year

E f f i c i e n c y ( % )

Mc-Si

CZ-Si

Eff ici en c y has huge c ost leverage


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Module Cost Roadmap

0 .00

0 . 0

1 .00

1 . 0

2 .00

2 . 0

3 .00

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Year

M o

d u

l e C o s t

( $ / W )

Mc i

i

2012

$1 .10 /W


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1

10

100

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000


Historical

Projected1980$21.83/W

1985$11.20/W 1990

$6.07/W 1995$4.90/W

2000$3.89/W 2005

$2.70/W2010

$1.82/W2013$1.44/W

Silicon R o a dmap C o s t

Silicon R o a dmap Predic t s 2 0 1 3Go a l W ill Be Me t!

Co s t-Eff ec t ive Distribu te d P owe r in 2 0 1 2

Distribu te d Generat ionVa lue


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Factors Driving Future

Cost ReductionPoly silicon price: $300/kg $30/kgWire saws: now < $0.25/W

Larger wafers: 2 6Thinner wafers: 8 mil 2 milImproved efficiency: 16% 22%Volume manufacturing: 100MW 1000MWIncreased automation: some lotsContinued improvement in manufacturingprocesses


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Extending Projection to 2013

Predicts Cost-effective Bulk Power

0 1

1

10

100

1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000 1 000 000


M o d u l e P r i c e

( $ / W ) ( $ 2 0 0 2 )

Historic l

Projected

130 1

1 021 3

110

20003

20230

20131 Distri uted

ener tionlue

Bulkener tion

lue

32

Current ener tion C cit


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Early Projections Were

Not Too Good

Cumula t uc t ( )

u l e P r i c e

(

) (

)

istorical

Projected

OE

Projection

W

W

W

W

a

a

W

W

W istri tedGeneration

al e

B l

Generational e

a

rrent Generation a acity

Big Brea thro gh

ge Growth


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Renewable energy will capture a meaningful share of theGlobal Energy Market in the next 25 years.

The Renewable Energy Revolution

K ey drivers will be:

Falling costs for renewable energyDeclining fossil fuelproductionIncreasing energy

demand worldwideEnvironmental concerns

S ource: C.J.Campbell World Oil Resources Dec 2000

Oil industry consensus:production is will peak between 2004 and 2010


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The Future of RenewablesProjected World Energy Production

0

100

200

300

a O G a s

N c e a r

B

m a s s

H y r

S a r

G e

19992020

20402060

E x a

j

e s

S ource: Royal DutchS hell Group


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$23 Billion in Subsidies Yields Inexhaustible,Pollution-Free Source of Energy !Subsidize the difference in cost over $3/W

22

3

3

2 2 2 2 Year

A n n u a

l S u

b s i d

y ( $

2 gro th3 gro th

gro th

$23 B

$2 B

$2 B


22/22

Thank You Austin Clean Energy Initiative

and

Best of Luck Making Austin aCenter of Clean Energy

a Crystalline Silicon Solar Cell Vision

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