A Comparison of Organic and Conventional Apple Juice Sales

A Comparision of Organic and Conventional Apple Juice SalesLisa WilmerEconomics 308Final Project Presentation

Why Apple Juice?

Work at WegmansCherry Hill

5 years, 338 days

Nature’s Marketplacesell natural and organic products

Interesting to compare sales of an organic and conventional product

Same brand and sizeSomething common

Organic Vs. Conventional

$2.99 $1.99

DataWISE(Wegmans Inventory and Shrink Exception)

Business application

79 stores, 7 statesDE,MA,MD,NJ,NY,PA,VA

Average sales per day for monthJanuary 2010 - March 2012

Possible Discrepancies in Data

HoursNY and PA

Open 24 hoursAll other stores

Open 6AM-midnight

Availability of Product

Introduced organic Jan. 2010

Stores did not get product at same time

Size ConstraintsNo Nature’s in some older NY stores

Mixed in with conventional juicesLess opportunity to merchandise product

Organic Apple Juice Shelf Space-Cherry Hill

Nature’sHolds 300 bottles

Holds 50 bottles

4.1 Conventional Vs. Organic Sales-All

Stores

1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106113120127134141148155162169176183 -

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

35,000.00

ConventionalOrganic

Days

Sales

Max= $11,341.07 (day 176)

Min= $9,039.56 (day 151)

Min= $400.66 (day 10)

Max= $32,128.55 (day 79)

4.1 Conventional Vs. Organic-All Stores Data

SampleX Range

Day189

Y RangeDifference in sales

Subtract organic from conventionalNo negatives

Conventional sales always greater than organic

Day Conventional Organic Difference in Sales1 26,648.09 944.84 25,703.25 2 20,847.24 681.72 20,165.52 3 16,522.97 651.82 15,871.15 4 17,661.25 645.84 17,015.41 5 18,620.43 615.94 18,004.49 6 18,045.32 735.54 17,309.78 7 26,339.64 621.92 25,717.72 8 21,444.24 693.68 20,750.56 9 14,925.00 496.34 14,428.66 10 13,267.33 400.66 12,866.67 11 10,371.88 472.42 9,899.46

Data AnalysisRegression Statistics

Multiple R 0.262466

R Square 0.068888

Adjusted R Square

0.063909

Standard Error 4401.491

Observations 189

R Square0.069

Not good fitting line

Data Analysis  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 14541.14004

642.8720706 22.61902594 2.05535E-55

Day -21.82709257

5.868184746 -3.719564656 0.000263733

Best fitting line is:

Ŷ=14,541.14-21.83XDifference in sales decreases by $21.83

For every increase in days of 1

Indication that as days passConsumers buying more organic apple juice

Lowers the variance between conventional and organic sales

P-valueConfidence that an increase in days will decrease the difference in conventional and organic sales

4.1 Conventional Vs. Organic Sales-All

Stores

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 -

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

35,000.00

4.1: Day Line Fit Plot

Difference in SalesPredicted Difference in Sales

Days

Diff

eren

ce in

Sale

s

Difference in sales is decreasing

Other Components of Paper4.2 Sales of Conventional and

Organic Apple Juice for Cherry Hill4.3 Sales of Organic Apple Juice: Cherry Hill Vs. IthacaIthaca leads company in Nature’s sales

$210,000 per week$190,000 per week (Cherry Hill)

4.4 When do People Buy the Most Apple Juice: Beginning, Middle or End of the Week?Weekend has most sales ($94,917.55)

ConclusionOrganic apple juice sales increasing

Might think about a small increase in price

Say, $0.20 -$0.30Least apple juice sales during Middle (Wed. Thurs.) of week

($50,001.77)Maybe run a special on apple juice during slow period

Attract more customers to shop Middle of week

Beginning of week sales (Mon. and Tues.)

($57,040.23)

Celebrating Organics at Wegmans!

The End