A Closer Look at Drought Conditions and Wildland Fire Suppression Expenditures in California Presentation for the Western Forest Economists Meeting May 19, 2014 Charlotte Ham North Carolina State University Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources
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A Closer Look at Drought
Conditions and Wildland
Fire Suppression
Expenditures in California
Presentation for the Western Forest Economists Meeting
May 19, 2014
Charlotte Ham
North Carolina State University
Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources
Motivation
Improve Suppression Expenditure Forecasts Karen Abt and Jeff Prestemon
USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station
FLAME: annual data to forecast 1 year out by FS regions
Outyear: annual data to forecast 2 to 10 years out for FS total
Monthly: monthly data to forecast remaining expenditures
by month for FS East, West, and RFS aggregates
June
2013
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
End o
f M
ay
End o
f Ju
ne
End o
f Ju
ly
End o
f A
ugust
End o
f
Sep
tem
ber
Exp
end
itu
res
(mil
lion
s)
Month
Total Forest Service Suppression Expenditures (2013$)
90% CI Upper
Median
90% CI Lower
Budget
July FLAME
forecast
July
2013
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600 E
nd o
f Ju
ne
End o
f Ju
ly
End o
f A
ugust
End o
f S
epte
mber
Exp
en
dit
ure
s (m
illi
on
s)
Month
Total Forest Service Suppression Expenditures (2013$)
90% CI Upper
Median
90% CI Lower
Budget
July FLAME forecast
August
2013
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
End o
f Ju
ne
End o
f Ju
ly
End o
f A
ugust
End o
f S
epte
mber
Exp
end
itu
res
(mil
lion
s)
Month
Total Forest Service Suppression Expenditures (2013$)
90% CI Upper
Median
90% CI Lower
Budget
July FLAME
forecast
ACTUAL 2013
Questions
How much do drought conditions
explain variation in suppression
expenditures over the summer in
California?
Does the relationship depend on the
measure used to represent drought?
E0 as a drought indicator Reference ET in CA, water year 2014 to March 31
Climatology: 1981-2010 Drought year: 2014
Mike Hobbins
NOAA-Earth System Research Laboratory-Physical Sciences
Division, National Integrated Drought Information System