A Black President? American’s Increasing Acceptance of Black Political Leaders Group Members: Kenzie Adam Kenzie Adam Hyekyung Jung Hyekyung Jung Joe Paulsen.

A Black President? American’s Increasing Acceptance of Black

Political Leaders

Group Members:Group Members:• Kenzie AdamKenzie Adam

• Hyekyung JungHyekyung Jung• Joe PaulsenJoe Paulsen

• Paige PaulsonPaige Paulson• Alex PotkonjakAlex Potkonjak• Lauren ShapeLauren Shape

Our Poll QuestionOur Poll Question

““If your party nominated a If your party nominated a generally well-qualified generally well-qualified person for president that person for president that happened to be black, happened to be black, would you vote for that would you vote for that person?”person?” (Gallup Poll 1958- (Gallup Poll 1958-2003)2003)

Gallup Poll 1958-2003Gallup Poll 1958-2003

1958195819591961196319651967196919711978198319841987199719992003

53 54

4641

45

34

41

24 2318 16 16

13

4 4 6

37 38

49 50 48

5953

6669

77 77 77 79

93 9592

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

If your party nominated a

generally well-qualified person for

president who happened to be

black, would you vote for that

person?

Date

Yes

No

No opinion

Theoretical Theoretical FoundationsFoundations

1. Moscovici’s Theory of Social 1. Moscovici’s Theory of Social Innovation and the Role of Innovation and the Role of Opinion MinoritiesOpinion Minorities

2. Availability Heuristic2. Availability Heuristic

1. Moscovici’s Theory of Social 1. Moscovici’s Theory of Social Innovation and the Role of Innovation and the Role of

Opinion MinoritiesOpinion Minorities Addresses the role that opinion minorities play in Addresses the role that opinion minorities play in

reshaping societal normsreshaping societal norms

““If you can’t support me and you can’t endorse me, If you can’t support me and you can’t endorse me, then get out of my way. You do your thing and let then get out of my way. You do your thing and let me do mine.” Shirley Chisholmme do mine.” Shirley Chisholm

Social norms are “transitory and momentary”Social norms are “transitory and momentary” Norms are not static, but rather are in a Norms are not static, but rather are in a

“continual state of flux as groups respond to “continual state of flux as groups respond to internal and external changes and events” internal and external changes and events” (Price and Oshagan, 1995)(Price and Oshagan, 1995)

2. The Availability Heuristic2. The Availability Heuristic

• Is the consideration to vote for a black Is the consideration to vote for a black candidate even present in voters’ candidate even present in voters’ minds?minds?

• Reference points: significant events, Reference points: significant events, experiences, the media and we think, experiences, the media and we think, most importantly most importantly the emergence of the emergence of blacks in positions of blacks in positions of governmental powergovernmental power

Our PredictionOur PredictionIncrease in # of black political leadersIncrease in # of black political leaders

++# of newspaper articles mentioning # of newspaper articles mentioning

black political leaders black political leaders ==

Increase in public’s willingness to vote Increase in public’s willingness to vote for a black president (reference for a black president (reference

points)points)

MethodsMethods

• Source: New York Times articles, print edition, 1958-2007

• Coding for: # of articles with the black political leader’s name present

• Categories: – Members of Congress = 99– Members of the Cabinet = 13– Members of the Supreme Court = 2– Presidential Candidates = 7

• 111 total names, 37,891 articles counted

MethodsMethods

• Search Terms: everyone searched the name of the person in quotes to ensure uniformity of results

• Included articles from all dates • ie. Even if Jesse Jackson was not a candidate in 1980,

the article still creates a reference point for the future (availability heuristic)

• Limitations:– Computer-aided search (relying on NYT

database/skimming abstracts)– False-Negatives (unable to determine)– False-Positives (checked every 20th article up to 100)

Content Analysis ResultsNumber of Newspaper Articles with mention of black leader’s name

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

19581961196419671970197319761979198219851988199119941997200020032006

Year

Number of Articles

A Different View: A Different View: Presidential Election Presidential Election YearsYears

1972

1988

19841992 2004

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Year

Number of Articles

A Correlation?A Correlation?

200419921984

1988

1972

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Year

Number of Articles

1958

2003

1999

19961988

1984

1972

1965

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Date

If your party nominated a

generally well-qualified person for

president who happened to be

black, would you vote for that

person?

Yes

Correlation not Correlation not CausationCausation

Content Analysis vs. Gallup PollContent Analysis vs. Gallup Poll

1958

2003

1999

19961988

19841972

1965

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Date

If your party nominated a

generally well-qualified person for

president who happened to be

black, would you vote for that

person?

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Year

Number of Articles

Why Should We Care ?Why Should We Care ?

Public Opinion Shift From 37% to 95% Public Opinion Shift From 37% to 95% Support…Why?Support…Why?

1. Media as gatekeepers 1. Media as gatekeepers

2. Changing social norms 2. Changing social norms

3. Influence on individuals’ opinions3. Influence on individuals’ opinions