COMPARISON OF THE STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EXTREME TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR BIG RUSSIAN CITIES ACCORDING TO OBSERVED DATA AND MODEL SIMULATED RESULTS IN XIX-th - XXI-th CENTURIES. A A. Liakhov, Hydrometeorological Bureau of Moscow and Moscow region; [email protected]V. V. Oganesyan, Long-range forecasting Department, Hydrometcenter of Russia, [email protected]K. G. Rubinstein, Long-range forecasting Department, Hydrometcenter of Russia, [email protected]
11
Embed
A A. Liakhov, Hydrometeorological Bureau of Moscow and Moscow region; [email protected]
COMPARISON OF THE STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EXTREME TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR BIG RUSSIAN CITIES ACCORDING TO OBSERVED DATA AND MODEL SIMULATED RESULTS IN XIX-th - XXI-th CENTURIES. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
COMPARISON OF THE STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EXTREME TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR BIG RUSSIAN CITIES ACCORDING TO OBSERVED DATA AND MODEL SIMULATED RESULTS IN XIX-th - XXI-th CENTURIES.
A A. Liakhov, Hydrometeorological Bureau of Moscow and Moscow region; [email protected] V. V. Oganesyan, Long-range forecasting Department, Hydrometcenter of Russia, [email protected] K. G. Rubinstein, Long-range forecasting Department, Hydrometcenter of Russia, [email protected]
ANGLE COEFFICIENTS FOR DISCOVERED TRENDS FOR EMPIRICAL AND SIMULATED DATA OF TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
ANNUAL EXTREMES
City Element Emp initial row Emp 1979-1998 Sim 1979-1998
Moscow
Tmin 0.07 0.02 -0.10
Tmax -0.01 0.05 0.00
Precipitation 0.07 -0.65 0.20
St-Petersburg
Tmin 0.00 0.25 0.03
Tmax 0.02 0.11 0.09
Precipitation 0.00 0.75 -0.52
Yekaterinburg
Tmin 0.05 0.20 0.15
Tmax 0.03 0.10 0.09
Precipitation 0.08 0.61 0.60
Rostov
Tmin 0.04 -0.10 -0.05
Tmax 0.03 -0.12 -0.09
Precipitation -0.10 0.44 0.00
Tomsk
Tmin 0.04 0.05 0.01
Tmax 0.00 0.03 0.07
Precipitation 0.00 0.25 -0.12
Summary and conclusions
Climate changes are more significant for extremes of the minimum of the daily temperature (increase 0.04-0.07°C per year) than for extremes of the maximum of the daily temperature (increase 0.02-0.03°C per year). Variability (dispersion) of the values of the minimum of the daily temperature approximately twice as many as variability (dispersion) of the values of the maximum of the daily temperature for the all cities. Frequency of the extremes of the minimum and maximum of the daily temperature for the all seasons as whole for the XX-th-XXI centuries has decreased, but intensity of the extremes of daily precipitation totals has increased. The comparison of the statistical characteristics of the observed extreme values with model data allowed to determine the differences, first of all in characteristics of the model precipitation. The analyses of the received temporal trends showed, that in the whole, the climate of big cities of Russia for the period under consideration becomes more moderate and damp. This conclusion as a whole confirms the results of modeling.