-
Technical
Analysis
Review
01-05-2015
Review_01/05/15 - ( Rating - 7/15 ) Positive - High Risk - Rupee
is Depreciating / Nifty on verge of Breaking out into Bull Market /
AD is +ve / TRIN is -ve / Net 52 WK Hi/Low is
+ve / Bonds is -Ve (--) Big Picture is Positive.
| 0 is extreme -ve | 1 is -ve | 2 is Neutral | 3 is +ve | 4 is
extreme +ve |
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Nifty - ( 3/4 ) Daily Chart is in Uptrend - Highest Low is
7980.
This was a Normal Range Week.The Bears won the week as prices
closed in bottom
third of the Range below the Previous week close & exposed
the inability of Bulls to
Retest the Supply Zone on Weekly Timeframe.
The Higher High, Higher Low Bar Range has been broken on Daily
Weekly & Monthly
Timeframe - Weekly | DZ - 8160 - 7961 + 7831 - 7723 | SZ 8626 -
8588
Monthly Chart's Engulfing bar action could mean deep correction.
The Demand Zone
on Monthly is near 7721 - 7422 & Below it 6730 - 6650
Indian Rupee - ( 3/4 ) Rupee Breakout from Symmetrical triangle
Pattern. $ is in a
Bull Maket v/s Rupee Depreciation.Rupee had Retracement from Top
to 61.37 on 03-
08-2014. Rupee is consolidating into a Range at Demand Level
from Weekly
Timeframe.A Breakout from Range is awaited
Supply Zone at 1) 69.228 (68.860) 68.578 2) 64.074 (63.669)
63.206
Demand Zone are at 1) 61.154 (60.720) 60.373 & 2) 59.368
(59.044) 58.688
It is notable that the entire activity of previous 4 Months is
contained into the range of
August Huge Candle & it is unable to takeout the lows of
that August candle.On Daily
TF the price has broken on Upside. It is Notable that $ Index
has Given a Breakout
from Weekly Demand Zone & $ is expected to Raise against all
Currencies (Trouble for
Rupee) Also With Growing Crises senerio Green Buck (has been
considered to be the
Hedge (Preferred Vehicle For Cash).
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Dimensions
Price Major Trend line break from Historic Pivot Highs of 6154 -
6134 is broken on
the Up side & retesting the Trendline break from
above,Measured up move of Break
of Ascending Triangle is Very high at 10043.
Volume Volumes are in increasing Trend.In Apr series Nifty
future shed 8.24 lakh
position in Open Interest and this accounts to -4.22 % of Total
Open Interest in Apr
series.The Nifty Apr series is trading at 13.55 Rs premium to
Underlying . In derivative
cumulatively for all series contract Nifty future net shed 4.32
lakh position in open
interest and this accounts to -1.95 % of Total Open Interest in
all series and
cumulatively trading in average premium of 62.43 Rs to
Underlying.
Open Intrest (OI) Record updated for-.Apr/27/2015-NIFTY
FUTURE-CMP(8318.8) is
currently in BEAR trend.The open interest is also not increasing
with trend so be
careful. At current
price strike the activity is tilted to put side and ratio is
still strong but addition of call is
slightly increasing at 8300 level Yesterday Nifty Put option has
added 653.56 lakh
position and Nifty call option has added 787.52 lakh position in
open interest on
cumulative basis. NIFTY PCR
(Position Wise) - 0.83 & (Money Wise) - 0.5
Demand Levels are (8513 - 8451) + (8257 - 8236) + (8118 - 8084)
+ FZ 7890 + (7906 -
7857) + SHFZ (7840 - 7817) + (7731 - 7695) + (7676 - 7654) +
(7625 - 7598) + (7564 -
7532) + (7420 - 7360) + (7130 - 7080) + RN 7000 + (6860 - 6820)
+ (6690 6640) + 6354
(6228.45) 6187.80 + 6133 (6100) 6102 + 5807 (5791) 5780 +
5755.28 to 5714.63 +
5550.13 (5506.50) 5474.97 + 5276.86 - 5211.20 + 5128.09
(5079.67) 5032.70 +
4842.27 4770.73
Supply Levels - 9117 - 9042 + 8985 - (8950) - 8914
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Breadth Charts - ( 0/3 ) (Rating 1 for Each +ve)
Advance Decline Line (0/1) If the Nifty is rising but the number
of stocks
advancing is dropping, then the trend is in trouble and may
pause soon or even
reverse.
AD Line is Now falling with increase in Nifty, indicates
decreased strength in Up trend
& But Line is still Low on the Curve hence it is Positive
for Uptrend.
Midcaps are Raising with declining Momentum ( After Recovery
from Over Sold Levels
) But some Large caps & All Index Heavy Weights are
Declining with Little Momentum.
Trader's Index (TRIN Chart) (1/1) To Incorporate Volume of
Advance Decline
Analysis - TRIN is unusual in that it moves opposite to the
Nifty
TRIN is a ratio where 1.0 means selling and buying pressure are
equal TRIN BELOW 1.0
(More Volume in stocks that are advancing) & Above 1.0 (More
Volume in stocks that
are Declining
SMA Trin is Between 0.9 & 0.8 indicated reduced Strength in
Uptrend & space for
more stocks to Decline even tho Nifty is Rising,The series of
Higher Lows in SMA10 of
TRIN can be Restored.
Sentiments Sentiments are now Caustious as current Breakout into
Life time High
has retraced, Due to Sharp retracement in Upmove Traders are
forced to cut their
Long Position,A Break on Upside from Weekly Inverse H&S
& Monthly Ascending
Triangle Indicates Supreme Power for Bulls.Risk Reward would be
favourable on Bear
Side upto Retest. Earnings expectations are mostly -ve
TIme After Previous F&O expiry (@ 8181.50 ) Nifty could now
build Long Position
due to Sharp Pullback .. Nifty's 56 Day Cycle (09-
03-2015 was a Bullish Pin Bar Up Day) (Next Date 03-05-2015
Expect Uptrend )-->
Mid month Reversal ( 16-04-2015 was a Normal Range Down Day
)(Next Date 15-05-
2015) Quaterlies Settlement is on 3rd Friday (20-03-2015 was
Normal Range Bear bar
Day) (Next Date 19-06-2015)
P & F Chart Bearish Signal Reversed Pattern occurred on
08-04-2015. 1) Rare
Double top & Inverse H&S Neckline Breakout @ 6200 --- 2)
New Support 8700 &
Resistance Life Highs 9100
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3 Y 10 Y 30 Y
NSE Net Monthly High & Low (0/1) More Stocks in the index
making new highs
versus new lows if Number is Reducing Trend is in Trouble.The
Rising New Highs
indicate Markets Buying pressure is accelerating (Environment
& Trend) is Positive
There is a downward slope as "Valleys of 52 week Highs" has been
broken on upside
for a 2nd Time indicating weekness in Up Trend.The "Peaks of
stocks Hitting 52
Week High" Should increase for strong Up Trend
India Vix Volatility Index (or Fear Index or VIX) is a weighted
measure of the implied
volatility.Market Makers hedge the market Play, the Down Volume
is always a factor
& used in Direct Corelation with the VIX & They Together
have Indirect corelation with
Index ie Vix & DVol is Down; Market will move Up AND Vix
& DVol is Up;Market will
move Down.Indirect relation between Vix & DVOL leads to
Sidewise Index
VIX is below 20 indicating Complacancy. Fear/ Volitality has
increased with Up Trend
indicating Possible pullback...Volume is also High....
Indian Bonds (0/4) Indirect Correlation with Stock Market; Money
Flows from Bonds to Stock for Short term Maturity (Mkt Goes up)
& Vice Versa. Shorter Period
= Lower Rate (Controlled by Centeral Bank & Indirect
relation to Stock Market) + Longer Period = Higher Rate (Controlled
by Market)
All Bonds Compleing Pullback in Uptrend. InCorrect Relation of
30Y ROI > 10Y ROI < 3Y ROI is achived (Caution Money is
Moving to Short term Bond Market from
Share Market indicates Weekness in Economy & Flight to
safety ) .. . Under Asset Rotation from Risk on (Equity Market) to
Risk off (Bond Market - Security Backed
by Govt) & with Devalution of Rupee the Dollar Outage is
gaining strength ( Increase of Returns in 100% Govt secured
Bonds).Also Yield Returns in India are more than
corrosponding Bonds in Developed Markets.
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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
Group 1 - Oil + Gas -> 33% Weight Group 2 - Natural Gas +
Metal + Corn + Soya -> 42% Weight Group 3 - Others -> 25%
Weight
Commodities (Negative Correlation) $CRB is in Accumulation
Phase, Commodities
Crude Has Broken Down, Gold is Pushed down as $ Moved up But
Copper has
regained Lost Ground ... & Geo Political Tensions are
high,Now Commodities are to
Resume uptrend if $ fails to resume uptrend & continues to
Decline
Currency Markets (Positive Coorrelation) Dollar is inclining
Currency post the
bounce from Demand Zone & Hence Some Currencies are Reaching
Supply Zone.
Japan Yen Aussie $ are Depriciating & Market are trying to
Rebuild (Distribution) after
Fed's Stance of Tapering in QE & Budget Deal, Hints at
Liquidity Reversal is on Hold
(Market is Build Gains on Good News) ..... Hence Global markets
are in Risk Off Mode
.. Currency War has Reached Phase II where Every Currency
(Developed & Other
Emerging Mkt Currencies ) are depreciating against $ to take
advantage of investment
in safe Govt Secured Bond
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http://
www.t
rading
econo
mics.c
om/st
ocks
World Markets (Positive Coorrelation) Chinese Recover is Slow
with raised
concerns on liquidity & Devalued Yunan & US Markets has
Fresh Break Down
(Markets are Distributing Stocks on Good News Markets are now
Ferouscliously
Selling.Europe CAG are Near Resistance DAX & FTSE have given
Fresh Break down
(Global Markets are Now breaking out of Resistance.
Syncronisation in Breakouts is
seen after Creating consolidation Patterns.But Global Liquidity
is Drying,interest Rates
are increasing ..All Equity Markets except EMs are on Risk ON
Mode
NB: These notes are just personal musings on the markets, trends
etc, as a sort of reminder to me on what I thought of them at a
particular point in time. They are not predictions and none should
rely on them for any
investment decisions. Readers Discretion Expected. Advocate to
Consult Your Financial Advisor before any Investment as Investment
in any market may be Lost in its Entirety. Strictly for
Entertainment Purpose Only.