9/9 FRI 12:30 | Keynote: Ed T. McMahon

APA Florida

© Ed McMahonUrban Land InstituteSeptember 9, 2011

ULI Mission

The mission of the Urban Land Institute is to provide leadership in the responsible use of land and in

creating and sustaining thriving communities world wide

“If you’re not changing business as usual, you’re failing.” -- Brent Toderian, Planning Director, Vancouver, B.C

What is Sustainable Development and why is it vital?

“Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without

compromising the ability of future

generations to meet their own needs.”

Source: United Nations, Bruntland Commission Report

It is about our children

It’s about balance

“Conservation is a state of harmony between man and nature.”

Aldo Leopold

Sustainability Goals

• Healthy Environment

• Vigorous Economy

• Vibrant Community

Sustainability in Action

Shades of Green• Parsley Green • Grass Green

• Tree Green • Full Spectrum Green

Parsley Green Grass Green

Tree Green Full Spectrum Green

Parsley Green

Tree Green

• Green building• Sustainable materials• Energy efficiency• Waste management• Indoor air quality• The vertical dimension

Tools and Policy OverviewImplementing Sustainable Development in Your Community

© 2008Test

7748

LEED CertifiedProjects

31,975+LEED Registered Projects

LEED Projects in USA total 31,000+ in 2010

“$12 Billion was spent on Green Buildings in 2008. This

is expected to grow to $60 Billion by 2013.”

McGraw-Hill ConstructionSmart Market Trends Report, 2008

Green Retrofits• 98% of building stock is

existing buildings• 75% of commercial

buildings are more than 20 years old

• There is a $400 billion market for energy efficiency rehabs in coming years

• Empire State Building is retrofitting to reduce energy use by 40% - with a 3 year payback

Empire State Building , New York

Will the Recession Effect Green?• Despite the recession, a significant number of green

projects are under construction, and even larger backlog of green buildings await certification, ensuring that the near term supply of green buildings will continue to increase.

• Various market forces, regulatory incentives & mandates will continue to pressure real estate owners & managers to enhance the sustainability of their portfolios. Focus will shift to affordable repositioning & more efficient property operations.

• Green buildings will continue to outperform conventional buildings due to their relative scarcity relative to demand.

• The recession will slow, but not fundamentally alter, the market shift to sustainable real estate.

Source: RREEF Research, San Francisco, CA., 2009

Source: Charles Lockwood

Harvard Business Journal

“As green buildings become more common, conventional

buildings will rapidly lose value and become obsolete.”

Grass Green

• Sustainable location• Good site planning• Design in harmony

with nature• Master planning• The horizontal

dimension

• “Green buildings in wrong location are not truly green. Smart growth that does not take advantage of green building is not smart.” – Jonathan Rose

• “Where you build is just as important as what you build.” - Peter Calthrope

Sustainable Development effects Land Development not just buildings

Street is 40 feet wide

Street is 24 feet wide

Good Site Planning & Street Design

• Less pavement means more affordable housing

• Less pavement is better for the environment

• Narrower streets are safer for children

Full Spectrum Green

• Affordable housing• Placemaking• Community building• Green lifestyles• Balances community,

economy & environment

Sustainability is about more than technology

• At its most basic, “sustainable” means enduring. Sustainable communities are places of enduring value.

• Sustainability is about affordability, walkability, place-making, community building.

Doug Kelbaugh, Dean, University of Michigan, School of Architecture

“If a building, a landscape or a city is not beautiful, it will not be loved, if it is not loved, it won’t be maintained and

improved. In short , it won’t be sustained.”

Planning?

Secrets of Successful Communities• Develop a vision for the future• Inventory local assets and resources• Build plans around the enhancement of assets• Use education, incentives, partnerships and

voluntary initiatives – not just regulation• Pick and choose among development proposals• Cooperate with neighbors for mutual benefit• Protect community character as well as ecology and

economics• Have strong leaders & committed citizens

Like it or not, more change is coming.

Things You Can’t Control

• Demographic changes• Technology • National and global economy• Consumer attitudes & market trends• Energy prices• Climate change and extreme weather

There two kinds of change:

• Planned change, and

• Unplanned change

How will the Crash Reshape America?

• How we live, work, shop and get around will change.

• Communities that embrace the future will prosper. Those that do not will decline.

What’s the future? Is it this?

Or, is it this?

The Old Paradigm

The future belongs to main streets, town centers and mixed use

development

Strip retail is retail for the last century

Here is Why:• We’re overbuilt on the strip• Retail is rediscovering the city• The suburbs are being redesigned• Traffic congestion, fuel prices and auto-oriented

(i.e. ugly design) are undermining the strip• Consumers favor walkability and places with

character• E-commerce means fewer and smaller stores• The economy is restructuring the retail

landscape

We’re Overbuilt on the Strip

• Ten fold increase in retail space from 1960-2000.

• From 4 to 38 square feet per person.

• US has more than double the retail space per person as Europe.

• There is now more than 1billion square feet of vacant retail space (mostly in empty big box stores)

Retail space grew faster than retail sales

Department Store vs. Big Box• Downtown• Multi-story• Accessible by Transit• Footprint – about 1 acre

• Outside of town• Single story• Accessible by car• Footprint –about 12 acres

Development Pattern Reinforced Driving

Suburbs Are Being Redesigned

• “The largest retail trend of the next generation will be the conversion of dead or dying strip commercial centers in the suburbs into walkable urban places.”

• Source: Chris Leinberger, The Brookings Institution

Historic Rockville, MD

• Mostly demolished in 1970

Rockville Mall – Rockville, MD

Rockville, MD – Town Center

Rockville, MD Town Center

The Opportunity

The New Promised Land?

Tear Up Parking Lot, Rebuild Paradise

• Large, flat, well drained site• Major infrastructure in place• 4 lane highway frontage, transit ready• Saves rural land• Committed to mixed use• Can turn NIMBY’s into YIMBY’s• 2.8 million acres of greyfields will be

available in next 15 years

We Are Going From This:

Spread OutSingle UseDrivable Only

To This!

CompactMixed-UseWalkable

Tyson’s Corner Today

Americas 1st edge city – Nation’s 10th largest CBD – 3 rush hours daily

Tysons Corner - Tomorrow

• Tysons Corner, VA just received APA’s 2011 Daniel Burnham Award for a adopting a visionary Comprehensive Plan that will transform Tysons from America’s first edge City into a walkable, mixed use downtown served by 4 rail transit stations.

Retail is Rediscovering the City

King Street, Charleston, South Carolina

New Life for Old Buildings

• In December 2010, Target announced that it would renovate and occupy 125,000 Square feet in the landmark Carson Pirie Scott building in Chicago.

The Changing Shape & Location of Big Box Stores

A growing number of big box stores are locating downtown, in multistory buildings which means they use less land, fit better with the community and are accessible by foot or on transit.

Typical Target Store

Multi-story Target store

Target, Washington, DC

Target – Minneapolis, MN

Target – Stamford, CT

Wal-Mart, Washington, DC

Home Depot - NYC

Home Depot - Vancouver

Traffic Congestion, Gas Prices and Design Favor Main Streets

Where would you rather shop today?

Characteristics of the Strip

• A reliance on cars to go everywhere.

• Traffic congestion• Lots of big signs, traffic lights

and driveways• Streetscape dominated by

parking lots• Little or no landscaping• Cheap, cookie-cutter

buildings• Nothing unique – every

town’s strip looks the same.Typical Strip – Ugly and Congested

The Nature of Commercial Strips

“The distinguishing characteristic of commercials strips is there undisguised ugliness, although traffic congestion now runs a close second.”

Source: Ten Principles for Reshaping the Strip, ULI

Characteristics of Downtown• Walkable and pedestrian

friendly• Streetscape dominated

by buildings• Easy to get around

because of street grid• Park once environment• Beautiful, one of a kind

structures• Every downtown looks

different

Typical Downtown – Walkable and Unique

What does the future look like?

Barnes & Noble, Rockville Pike, MD Barnes and Noble, Bethesda, MD

Rockville Pike Downtown Bethesda

“People stay longer,spend more moneyand come back more often to places that attract their affection.”

Source: Urban Design and the Bottom Line, ULI, 2009

What will High Energy Prices Mean for the Future?

• In 1970 the US imported 24% of its oil from foreign providers

• In 1990 the US imported 42% of its oil

• In 2008 the US imported 70% of its oil

• The cost of imported oil reached over $600 billion per year in 2008

Do you think thelong term trendfor energy pricesis to go up or down?

“Going forward the distance between where we live and work will matter more and attractive mixed use places (in

both cities and suburbs) that offer more convenient lifestyles will benefit.”

The Economy is Restructuring Retail

The Old Formats

• Strip shopping centers• Enclosed malls• Power centers

• Distinct Property types and homogenous tenant lineups made for tidy divisions within the shopping center industry.

• Today this is changing!

Town Centers vs. Strip Shopping Centers

“The development of new suburban town centers is one of the hottest real estate trends in the United States today, as they consistently surpass standard suburban real estate products in:

Residential prices and apartment rents Retail sales and sales tax revenues Hotel room and occupancy rates, On-site and adjacent property values Office and retail lease rates.”

- Urban Land Magazine

Technology is Changing Retail

More of these, means Less of these.

E - Commerce Means Fewer and Smaller Stores

• The nation’s healthiest retailer is Amazon• E - commerce helps small businesses

level the playing field.• E-commerce means the downsizing or

disappearance of many chain stores• Staples – the pioneer of the superstore

concept is now the 2nd largest online retailer.

Demographics is changing where we live and shop.

Mississippi Ave, Portland, OR Barracks Row, Washington, DC

Manayunk, Philadelphia, PA Capitol Hill, Seattle, WA

Demographic Shifts

• Baby Boomers and Retirees – 80 million• Immigrants – 40 million• Millennials (18 to 30 year olds) – 80 million• Women (single-parent households) - 30

million• 75 % of American households do not have

school age children

Reasons for Market Demand for Walkable, Mixed Use Neighborhoods

• Rising costs for gasoline & transportation• Baby boomers becoming empty nesters• Boredom with conventional development• Demand greatly exceeds supply• Young people like urban lifestyles (short

commutes, nightlife, etc.)

Americans favor walkable, mixed-use neighborhoods

• 77% want neighborhoods with abundant sidewalks and other pedestrian facilities.

• 88% placed more value on quality of neighborhood than the size of the house.

• 59% would choose a smaller house, if it meant less driving.

• 73% of young adults (35 or younger) favor neighborhoods with a mix of house and businesses over areas with housing only.

• Source: National Association of Realtors Survey, February, 2011

Walkable Development is a Low Cost Climate Change Strategy

• Compact development can cut driving by 20 % to 40% percent.

• We already have the technology to build walkable communities.

• Pursuing compact development involves shifting investments that have to be built anyway.

• Walkable communities can save people money and improve public health.

Source: Growing Cooler: Evidence on Urban Development & Climate Change,Urban Land Institute, October, 2007

Walkable Communities• Workers in Bethesda, MD

walk or use transit for 74% of their non-commute trips (errands, lunch, shopping, etc)

• Workers in Germantown, MD (an auto oriented suburb) use the car for 90 % of their non-commute trips.

• Source: US Department of Transportation

Compact Development vs. Sprawl

Sprawl

• Low densities• Single uses• Strip development• Poorly connected streets• Auto-oriented design

Compact development• Medium to high densities• Mixed uses• Centered development• Interconnected streets• Pedestrian & transit

friendly design

We Can Go From This

To This

Shopping Mall – Before

Boca Mall – Boca Raton, Florida

Shopping Mall - After

Mizner Place, Boca Raton, Florida

But will Americans accept the higher densities that come with

more compact, mixed use Development?

Americans Don’t Like 2 Things

• Too Much Sprawl• Too Much Density

Overcoming Opposition to Density

• High Quality Design• Access to Green Space• Amenities• More choices in ways to get around• High Density only in clearly defined areas

Density Requires Good Design & Compensating Amenity

Density Comparisons

Charleston, SC – 8.3 units per acreSun City, AZ – 5.0 units per acre

Density Comparisons

Las Vegas, 37.4 Units per acre New Orleans, 38.9 units per acre

Higher-Density Can Be Attractive & Valuable

Florida Neighborhoods

City Place, West Palm Beach Riverside, Jacksonville

Old Northeast, St Petersburg

As we densify our communities we must simultaneously green our

communities

Minneapolis Park System Metro St. Louis Greenway Plan

How Do We Green A Community?Street Trees Green Parking Lots

Green Roofs Greenways

How Do You Green A City?Green Sound Walls Community Gardens

Rain Gardens Urban Agriculture

Community Parks

Where is the most valuable land in New York ?

How will the Crash Reshape America?

• How we live, work, shop and get around will change.

• Communities that embrace the future will prosper. Those that do not will decline.

Horatio Nelson Jackson - 1903

• 8000 cars• No Gas Stations• No Parking lots• No highway departments• No paved roads• Horses were the primary

mode of travel

1st cross country trip by auto

Twenty Years later - 1923

• 10 million cars• 100,000 miles of

paved roads• Every state had a

highway department• Gas stations and

parking lots transform cities

• Horses a thing of the past

Traffic Jam , New York City - 1923

Thank youEd McMahon

Urban Land Institute

[email protected]