8/28/2015 1 Effects-Based Crisis Management and Rescue Operations A Research Project Proposal to the Swedish Rescue Services Agency.

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Effects-Based Crisis Management and Rescue Operations

A Research Project Proposal to the Swedish Rescue Services Agency

Outline

• ROMEO (Research on Management of Effective Operations)• Project Proposal to SRV : Crisis Management and Rescue Operations

in Robust Societies

Vision

ROMEO will become one of the leading national and international research centres in the area of effects based support for management of civil and military operations

Supporting Management of Operations

Individuals withwearable equipment

Groups in mobile units

Crisis and operation management in staffs. Meeting context.

Long term planning in normal office environments.

Time for decision-making

Days

Hours

Seconds

Minutes

Months

PlanningOperations

EBOAnalysis

Monitoringof

Effects

ExecutingOperations

Resource Optimization ServiceResource Optimization Service

Model Based Info Fusion ServiceModel Based Info Fusion Service

Query Based Reasoning ServiceQuery Based Reasoning Service

Simulation for ExperimentsSimulation for Experiments

Scalable ArchitectureScalable Architecture

CGF Simulation ServiceCGF Simulation Service

Interoperability ServiceInteroperability Service

Event and Recovery AnalysisEvent and Recovery Analysis

UAV/UGV Control Service UAV/UGV Control Service

EBO Analysis EngineEBO Analysis Engine

EBO Collaborative ManagementEBO Collaborative Management

Individuals Mobile groups Crisis staffs Planning

Data and Info Flow ArchitectureData and Info Flow Architecture

Use of Unmanned VehiclesUse of Unmanned Vehicles

Weather and GIS VisualisationWeather and GIS Visualisation

Agent Based Information IntegrationAgent Based Information Integration

Multi-Modal HMI ServicesMulti-Modal HMI Services

Integrated Logistics Service Integrated Logistics Service

User studies and integration

Human-Machine Interaction Methods and Services

Interoperability Methods and Services

Architectural Issues

AI-Based Tools for EBOAnalysis

Inter-disciplinaryResearchProjects

Participants so far…

Lena Mårtensson, Industrial Engineering and Management, KTH

Henric Christensen, Centre for Autonomous System, KTH

Fang Chen, Interaction Design, Chalmers

Philippas Tsigas, Distributed Computing and Systems, Chalmers

Anders Ynnerman, Visualization and Interaction Studio, LiU

Jenny Hållmats Saab Systems

Claes Bäckström Saab Systems

Klas Wallenius Saab Systems

Sigvard Brodén Saab Systems

Expected Long-Term Funding and Development2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

PSRV I 0,5 2,8 2,8

SRV II 0,3 2,8 2,8

NFFP 0,7 0,5 2 2 2 1

Saab A&T 0,5 1,5 1,5 1,5

FMV/Vinnova I 0,5 5 5 5

FMV/Vinnova II 0,5 5 5 5

FMV/Vinnova III 0,5 5 5 5

KBM/Säkprog I 0,5 10 10 10 10 10

KBM/Säkprog II 0,5 10 10 10 10 10

KBM/Säkprog III 0,5 10 10 10 10 10

EU FP7 C1 0,7 20 20 20 20 20

EU FP7 C3 0,3 5 5 5 5 5

EU FP7 C5 0,3 5 5 5 5 5

EU FP7 C7 0,3 5 5 5 5 5

Synchronization 1 0,5 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Max Research Effort 0,5 11,8 30,1 63,3 63 62 57 52 22 17 12 12 7 7Expected Research Effort (Persons) 0 7 15 36 37 35 33 29 10 7 5 5 4 4Expected Funding (MSEK) 1 7 14 33 33 32 29 26 9 6 5 5 3 3

= Application Project

= Research Project

Outline

• ROMEO (Research on Management of Effective Operations)• Project Proposal to SRV : Effects-Based Crisis Management and

Rescue Operations

Problem: Crisis Management and Rescue Operations

• Perform preventive planning – Build a causal model of risks in the society– Define indicators of potentially hazardous events– Define actions to perform if these events occur

• Predict risks– Monitor the indicators and predict effects– Alert when risk level supersedes the threshold level

• Manage rescue operations– Identify optimal actions– Continue predict risks and identify actions as the situation develops

Purpose of the Project

• Investigate how predictive situation managament can facilitate restoring of the security during a hazardous event .

• Investigate the current state of the art and required development in different areas, e.g.:– Risk Management– Information Fusion and Event Detection– Agent-Based Simulation– Multi-Modal User Interfaces

• Investigate requirements and usability issues among the rescue forces and and other actors at different decision levels involved in the managament of the event.

• Demonstrate a simplified prototype system• Form the basis for a future research and development program in situation

management funded by e.g. EU and the Swedish Government

Predictive Situation Management

Public SafetySafety of Personel InfrastructureEnvironmentBudget

Ok Compromised SevereWater Tower

Overall priorities

Legend

Outcome Probabilities

Population

Hazards

Own Units

Important Objects

Power Plant

ChemicalIndustry

System Overview Example

VideoCameras

Alerts frominfrastructure

monitoring

ObjectExtraction/Tracking

Situation Analysis/Event Recognition

Prediction/Embedded Simulation

SOS Alarm Rescue Services Other

Collaboration/Command Support

Weather forecasts

Reports and Emergency Calls

An Example of a Causal Model (Military Case)

Going From a Chance Node to a ’Probabar’

OK (Casualties = 0)

Compromised (0 < Casualties ≤ 100)

Severe (100 ≤ Casualties)

52 %

38 %

10 %

Goal: No Casualties

Goal: No Casualties

Project Organization

• Part of the ROMEO program

• Involves Amount of work– 2-3 PhD students 2-3 * 100 % of full time– Senior researchers at LiU, Chalmers and KTH 2-3 * 20 % of full time– Technology, HMI, and rescue expertise from Saab 1-2 * 20 % of full time– Rescue expertise from Attunda Fire & Rescue service 1 * 20 % of full time ?????

• Budget– T.B.D.

• Time– 2007-01-01 – 2008-12-31

• Work on the proposal– Visit at SRV ~2005-12-01– Deadline ~ 2006-03-01