7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. 200 2 Selection of dairy Selection of dairy cattle for lifetime cattle for lifetime profit profit Paul M. VanRaden Paul M. VanRaden Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory Agricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, MD [email protected]
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7 th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. 2002 Selection of dairy cattle for lifetime profit Paul M. VanRaden Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory.
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7th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. 2002
Selection of dairy cattle Selection of dairy cattle for lifetime profitfor lifetime profit
Paul M. VanRadenPaul M. VanRadenAnimal Improvement Programs LaboratoryAgricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, [email protected]
Multiply above by directional lossAccuracy = Corr (EBV, BV)
Directional loss = Corr (e EBV, a EBV)
Estimated (e) vs. actual (a) economic values
Direction may be the most important factor
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Direction of SelectionDirection of Selection
Trait 1
Trait 2
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Direction of SelectionDirection of Selection
Trait 1
Trait 2Accuracy contours
Animalsselected
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Trait Direction Not ClearTrait Direction Not Clear
Concentrated (less) or diluted (more) milk?
Large or small cows? Skinny or fat cows? Dairy or beef or dual purpose?
Direction may be changed more quickly by replacing a population than by selecting within the population
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1977 USDA Prediction1977 USDA Prediction
“If dual-purpose selection is abandoned in Europe, there may be more advantages to international semen exchange.”
“In the future, particularly if international selection goals become more uniform, research will be needed to determine what can be gained by introducing semen of bulls from other countries into U.S. improvement programs” (R.H. Miller, 1977 JDS)
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National Index ComparisonsNational Index Comparisons
Compare proportion of emphasis (relative value / Σ|relative values|)
Review table published by Holstein International magazine 1996-2000 monthly in each issue June 2002, approximately yearly
Examine indexes in further detail
Holstein International, June 2002
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National Selection Indexes:National Selection Indexes:Yield and Health TraitsYield and Health Traits
CountryUSA DEU FRA NZL NLD CAN GBR AUS ITA DNK SWE
% of Interbull Population 17.4 15.3 12.3 10.6 9.3 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 1.5
Index Name NM$ RZG ISU BW DPS LPI PLI APR PFT S – I TMI
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QuestionsQuestions
Do cow shows and judging contests help or harm education?
What is feed cost for protein, fat? Net rather than gross income
Does milk volume have negative value only because of quotas? Milk volume quotas in Europe? People quotas in Australia, NZ?
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Prices of Milk and WaterPrices of Milk and Water
Cost to USA consumers ($ / liter)American bottled water 0.16Canadian spring water 0.51Skim milk (0.1% fat) 0.662% milk 0.683.25% (whole) milk 0.72French Alps water 1.35
Milk requires water, cheese does not
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Linear vs Non-linear ProfitLinear vs Non-linear ProfitCalculation of Net Merit $Calculation of Net Merit $
Non-linear profit = (income – expense per lactation) number of lactations + cull value – raising cost
Linear profit obtained by taking partial derivatives at trait means
Corr (linear, non-linear) = .999
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Lifetime Net Merit $Lifetime Net Merit $
Incomes and expenses estimated from yield traits, longevity, SCS, and conformation composites
Example: body size Convert from composite to weight Cull price - growth cost + lactations
(calves – maintenance) = $-1.28 / kg Less beef = more profit to dairy farmer
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Goals of Index CalculationGoals of Index Calculation
Give breeders the index they want Breed association or AI committees Emotional approach (TPI)
Give scientists the index they want Add incomes, subtract expenses Mathematical approach (NM$)
Future prices difficult to prove
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ConclusionsConclusions
Many traits in addition to yield contribute to dairy cattle profit
Longevity, fertility, and health traits have high value
Direction unclear for some traits
Indexes have improved rapidly in recent years
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History of USDA economic indexesHistory of USDA economic indexes(PD$, MFP$, CY$, and NM$)(PD$, MFP$, CY$, and NM$)
and Holstein Association TPIand Holstein Association TPIYear Introduced and Index Name