7 efficiency and effectiveness fall 2015

Add Village leaky pipe analogy ADD POTATO COMPUTER EXAMPLE

A few things about the usefulness of oil

• Add Potato computer• Add truck oil image

Energy Flow in Human History

• Low energy societies – Hunter-gatherer – first leisure society – great gains in energy

• Energy gains for hunter gathers:– 30-40 for energy dense roots– 10-20 for all gathering zero to net loss for small

mammals– Net energy return for Alaska Inuit baleen whale:

2000

Global Growth of Population, Energy, GDP 1800-2000

Energy and the Economy

GDP way up

Energy & Pop up

Energy/cap flat

Energy/GDP way down

Negawatts

Growth of economy in constant dollars since 1 ad

AD 1 $100 Billion

1820 $700 Billion

1970 $3,500 Billion

2000 36,000,000 Billion

The Need to Change(aka the obligatory hockey stick graph)

PEAK OIL

GLOBALWARMING

ECONOMIC INSTABILITY

THE LONG EMERGENCY

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How Much Oil is There Anyway…

2 Trillion barrels is the equivalent to 1.4% of the volume of the great lakes.

Less than the size of Green Bay.

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How much is a gallon of ‘liquid carbon’ fuel really worth?

One Truck + 1 gal. of Diesel Fuel 80,000 lb. truck 5 miles (up a shallow grade)

By Hand 1 person with 1 garden cart

= 250 lbs/load/trip 1 person could manage 20 miles/day

or 4 loads/day (1,000 lbs.)

Conclusion: 5 Minutes by truck80 Days by foot & cart

Powerful Oil – ‘Black Gold’

13

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2005Worldwide, there were

439 in operation.

35 under construction.

7-12 years to build 1.

Big oil tanks up: Exxon's profit nears $10BBy Matt Krantz, USA TODAY

While drivers have been painfully paying up at the pump, oil companies have been racking up eye popping profits.Thursday, ExxonMobil (XOM) became the most stark example yet of how much big oil companies benefited from the huge run-up in oil prices during the third quarter even as two major hurricanes ripped through the industry's Gulf Coast infrastructure. Exxon reported:

• •Net income up 75% to $9.92 billion. That is the most a U.S. company has earned from operations in a three-month period and greater than the annual gross domestic product of entire nations including Cameroon and Zimbabwe.

• •Revenue up 32% to $100.7 billion. That is greater than the annual GDP of all but just 38 of the world's economies.

• Exxon illustrates the energy's sector's tremendous profit amid record-high energy prices. The industry is on pace to earn $96 billion this year — more than what the USA's industrial and telecom companies will earn, combined, says Standard & Poor's based on members of the S&P 500 index. (Vote: Are oil companies' high profits justified?)

• And it's not just ExxonMobil that's raking it in. Royal Dutch Shell reported net income up 68% to $9 billion Thursday. Earlier this week, BP (BP) reported a $6.5 billion third-quarter profit and ConocoPhillips (COP) a $3.8 billion profit. Today, ChevronTexaco (CVX) is expected to post 53% higher earnings of $3.9 billion, says Reuters Estimates.

• The massive profit gains were widely expected giving the soaring price of oil. The price of a barrel of oil hit a record $70 during the third quarter and, even though it has backed off to $60.80 currently is still up 40% in 2005.

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Goal of Transition InitiativeReverses the CONSUMPTION model

into a CREATION model.Build the topsoilProduce the energy we consumeRe-Grow the rainforests (and others)Create resilient communities and citiesRetard/Reverse global warming (if possible) Improve everyone's standard of living

(quality of life)

Indus

trial

Asce

nt

(Mod

ernism

)

Energy & Resource Use Population Pollution

Climax

Techno-Fantasy

Green-Tech Stability

Earth stewardship

Mad Max

Great Grand Children

Agriculture10.000yrs BP

Industrial Revolution

Baby Boom

Pre-industrial sustainable culture

Historical Time Future Time

Creative Descent

(Permaculture)

Where are we going?

However….

The Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stones…or because the stones became too expensive

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Goal of Transition InitiativeReverses the CONSUMPTION model

into a CREATION model.Build the topsoilProduce the energy we consumeRe-Grow the rainforests (and others)Create resilient communities and citiesRetard/Reverse global warming (if possible) Improve everyone's standard of living

(quality of life)

Energy and SustainabilitySL E-101

Efficiency and Effectiveness

Design RequirementsEnergy Services Needed

• Heating• Cooling• Drying• Cooking• Motion• Light• Electricity• Pumping

Energy Sources Available

•Wind• Electrical• Mechanical

•Solar• Electrical• Thermal

•Biomass• Biogas• Wood gas• Chemical energy

•Hydro• Electric• Mechanical• Ocean systems

•Chemical• Fuel cells• Batteries

Mollison Article on Community Energy Systems

Thermodynamics of life

Radiant energy from the sun at 5000 degrees C (Low entropy, High order)

98% is re-radiated at 25 degrees C: Large entropy increase (less ability to do work)

2% is converted to chemical energy: highly ordered, great ability to do work.

Thermal Energy In

Thermal Energy Out

• Thermodynamics cartoon

Materials Cycle, Energy Flows

Photosynthesis

Respiration

Atmospheric Carbon Cycle

What do these all have in common?

Sources of negative entropy on EarthEarth’s Energy Flows

• Solar greater than 99%Rest is:• Gravity/Tides .005 %• Internal energy 1%• Chemical (sulfur driven life forms in deep sea vents)

MUM Energy CourseFall 2012

2nd Law (entropy) Implications for TechnologyHeat Engines - Limits to Energy Conversion Efficiency

Surprisingly simple upper limit to efficiency of heat engines:

T in

Tout

Tin - Tout

Tin

= 1 - Tin/Tout

Tin – Tout = Change in temperature = Delta TT must be in absolute temperature scale - Kelvin (deg C) or Rankine (deg F)

Regardless of Materials or Technology!

Betz limit for wind energy

Thermal Energy In

Maximum fraction of incoming wind energy that can be converted into useful wind generator energy is 0.59. Range is .2-.4 for practical wind turbines.

Regardless of Materials or Technology!

Total energy in moving air entering turbine

Converted to useful wind turbine energy

Energy in air leaving turbine

Typical Home Energy Breakdown

Typical Home Energy Use

Lighting

Refrigeration

Computers

Misc small appliances

Misc

Lighting RefrigerationComputersMisc small appliancesMisc

Using Energy Wisely:Effectiveness and Efficiency for Factor 10

Energy Use: How do you know?

Veridian

US Energy Use

Car Energy Analysis

"If every U.S. household participates in the campaign and makes their next light an ENERGY STAR, the nation will save up to $800 million in energy bills, and the reduction in air pollution will be equal to removing 1.2 million cars from the road for one year.” - EPA Administrator Christie Whitman.

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vs

And we could shut off four nuclear powerplants overnight - we wouldn’t need the power anymore

Phantom Loads =

“America’s televisions draw enough standby power to light 5 million homes. Generating this power creates 1 million tons of carbon emissions”

- Sierra Magazine, July/Aug 2002

Earth from space at night

Dark Sky Society

www.darkskysociety.org

What are the limits?

Wasted energy per year

$325,000,000,000 could be profitably saved

That is:Seconds per year 31,536,000Dollars per second $10,306Dollars per minute $618,341Dollars per hour $37,100,457Dollars per day $890,410,959Dollars per week $6,232,876,712Dollars per month $27,083,333,333

According to a mid 90’s Rocky Mountain Institute Report:

Negawatts$700 Billion in Savings since 1973: 1/3 from building efficiency, 1/3 vehicle efficiency, 1/3 structural change in economy

BarriersTechnical vs Social, Cultural, Political

Refrigerator example

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The Nature of Design: Ecology, Culture, and Human Intention David W. Orr

Fourth, ecological design at all levels has to do with system structure, not the rates of change. The focus of ecological design is on systems and “patterns that connect” (Bateson 1979, 3-4). When we get the structure right, “the desired result will occur more or less automatically without further human intervention.” (Ophuls 1992, 288). Consider two different approaches to the need for mobility. The Amish communities described in chapter 4 are structured around the capacity of the horse, which serves to limit human mischief, economic costs, consumption, dependence on the outside, and ecological damage, while providing time for human sociability, sources of fertilizer, and the peace of mind that comes with unhurriedness. In the Amish culture, the horse is a solar-powered, self replicating, multifunctional structural solution that eliminates the need for continual management and regulation of people. Most of us are not about to become Amish, but we need to discover or own equivalent of the horse.

•

Design - The First Signal of Human Intention

In the larger culture we expect laws and regulations to perform the same function, but they seldom do. The reason has to do with the fact that we tend to fiddle with particular symptoms rather than addressing structural causes for our problems. The Clean Air Act of 1970, for example, aimed to reduce pollution from auto emissions by attaching catalytic converters to each automobile- a coefficient solution. More than three decades later with more cars and more miles driven per car, even with the lower pollution per vehicle, air quality is little improved and traffic is worse than ever. The true costs of that system include the health and ecological effects of air pollution and oil spills, the lives lost in traffic accidents, the degradation of communities, an estimated $300 billion per year in subsidies for cars, parking and fuels, including the military costs of protecting our sources of imported oil, and the future costs of climate change. The result is a system that can only work expensively and destructively. A design solution to transportation, in contrast, would aim to change the structure of the system reducing our dependence on the automobile through the combination of high-speed rail service, light-rail urban trains, bike trails, and smarter urban design that reduced the need for transportation in the first place.

• The same logic applies to the structures by which we provision ourselves with food, energy, water, and materials, and dispose of our waste. Much of our consumption, such as excessive packaging and preservatives in food, has been engineered into the system because of the requirements of long-distance transport. Some of our consumption is due to built in obsolescence designed to promote yet more consumption. Some of it, such as the purchase of deadbolt locks and handguns, is necessary to offset the loss of community cohesion and trust caused in no small part by the culture of consumption. Some of our consumption is dictated by urban sprawl that leads of overdependence on automobiles. We have, in short, created vastly expensive and destructive structures to do what could be done better locally with far less expense and consumption. Redesigning such structures means learning how politics, tax codes, regulations, building codes, zoning, and laws work and how they might be made to work to promote ecological resilience and human sanity.

- David Orr, Nature of Design

• “A designer knows that he has achieved perfection not when there is nothing left to add, but when there is nothing left to take away.”

• Antoine de Saint-Exupery.

Mcdonough Clip

Nature’s operating system / design principles

Tunneling through the cost barrier: Integrated Design

Ephemeralization - Substituting intelligence in design for energy and materials

All the really important mistakes are made on the first day

Project cost spent1%7%

Lifetime costs committed70%85%

Each function, many elementsEach element, many functions

“Each design element should have at least 5 non-intrinsic functions” - Bill Mollison

Isolated savings - insulation example

Whole systems approach

Integrated Design: Eng Lock Lee Case Study

Project Location: Carpetmaker Interface Corporation, Shanghai, ChinaProject: Pump system

Original design called for 14 pumps using ninety-five horsepower.

Redesigned using an integrated design approach, pump power was reduced to 7 horsepower - a 92 percent or 12 fold energy saving, while reducing capital costs and improving performance in every way

Side benefits vs Side effects:Solving for pattern

Amory's friend Eng Lock Lee, one of RMI's favorite efficiency engineers, came over from Singapore to ride shotgun. He pointed out that when manufacturing processes are optimized, generally many other things are optimized as well. For example, using large, straight pipes, optimally laid out to connect equipment, leads to smaller (and cheaper) pumps and motors. But it also uses less overall space, saves noise, yields greater productivity, and requires less maintenance. Often these non-energy benefits are of far greater value than the energy savings, yet are rarely calculated. ("I'm beginning to learn it's really all about plumbing," noted Duncan, as he led Amory and Eng Lock around the factory.)

Interface Case Study cont’d

Design changes:1) Big pipes and small pumps vs small pipes

and big pumps2) Install pipes first vs install equipment first

The fatter pipes and cleaner layout yielded not only 92 percent lower pumping energy at a lower total capital cost but also simpler and faster construction, less use of floor space, more reliable operation, easier maintenance, and better performance. As an added bonus, easier thermal insulation of the straighter pipes saved an additional 70 kilowatts of heat loss, enough to avoid burning about a pound of coal every two minutes, with a three-month payback.

Factor 10 Economy

Integrated Design:Cool Daylighting

Lighting design order

1. Improve the visual quality of the task 2. Improve the geometry of the space3. Improve lighting quality, cut glare, indirect

lighting4. Optimize lighting quantity5. Harvest or distribute natural daylight6. Optimize the technical equipment - the

luminaires. Lamps, ballasts, etc Note - step 6 not step 1!

7. Controls, Maintenance, Training

Return on Brains -trading intelligence in design for energy and materials

Each year, a typical mechanical engineer will specify $3,000,000 worth of equipment, enough to raise a utilities peak load by a megawatt, requiring the utility to invest several million dollars in infrastructure.

If better education could result in 20-50% more efficient equipment ( a very conservative estimate) , then over a 30-year engineering career, the utility would avoid about $6-15 million in present-valued investments per brain, without taking into account savings in operating energy or pollution.

This returns at least a hundred to a thousand times the extra cost of the better engineering education

Earl Mason, Habitat for Humanity, Mason City Iowa

1400 sq feetOccupied by a Family of 4$175 annual heating and cooling

High insulation levels allowBuilding to be heated with the water heater. Furnace elimination paid for extra insulation

Perry Bigelow Chicago

Superinsulation

Isbell Family Example

Start:1380 kwh, $150/mo, powered by utiltiyEnd: 100 kwh per month powered by solar,

What they did: •Upgrade 45 light bulbs•Eliminate phantom loads•(These first two items saved 35% or 350 kwh)•Replace fridge, washing machine•Replaced electric dryer and electric stove with gas •Convert to solar hot water

RMI, Snowmass, Co

RMI Renovation video

http://www.jetsongreen.com/2009/09/video-amory-lovins-super-green-home.html

http://on.wsj.com/KQyrQL

Herman Miller building, Michigan

Jefferson County StatisticsPopulation: 16,181Households: 6649

Energy Use Assumptions:Gasoline/Diesel: $50/household/moHome heating: $1000/yrHot Water: $30/moElectricity: $100/mo

Annual Energy Consumption:Gasoline/Diesel: $ 4,000,000Home Heating: $ 6,650,000Hot Water: $ 2,400,000Electricity $ 8,000,000TOTAL $21,050,000 (Residential Only!)20 Year Total: $420 MILLION DOLLARS

Statewide Residential Energy Costs:

Iowa Annual total: $3.9 billion

Iowa 20 yr total: $78 billion

Osage Iowa

Cost: $250,000Savings: $1,200,000 Per Year

# of residents: 3600

"I don't see any difference between a dollar brought in by a new business and a dollar that's saved due to energy conservation," Wes Birdsall, Supervisor, Osage Municipal Utilties

Compliance *Ninety-six percent of users have had load management devices installed on their central air conditioners*100% have received insulating jackets for their water heaters *950 compact fluorescent light bulbs are in use.Efficiency Measures *Instead of having to add generating capability as projected in 1984, Osage has been able to delay it until 2000.*Since 1974, Osage has reduced its natural gas consumption by 45% and reduced its annual growth in electricity demand from 6% to 3%.*Osage Municipal Utilities has been able reduce electricity rates by 19% during the last eight years and natural gas rates by 5% during the last five years.*Infrared scans reveal that 85% - 90% of all homes are now well insulated.

Osage cont’d…..

How they did it•Free use of electric test meters to locate inefficient appliances.•Infrared scans of all businesses and homes.•Scans of the electrical system to identify line loss.•A load management program that cuts electric peak loads by up to 10%.•A home weatherization program for low-income customers.•Free compact fluorescent bulb giveaways and rebates.•Low-cost leasing of a hydraulically-operated tree planter to replace dead elm trees, saving up to 50% on air conditioning bills. Trees are donated by Osage Nursery.•Complete energy audits with interest buy downs for efficiency projects.•Efficiency training in elementary and secondary schools allowing students to take ideas home.

If Jefferson Co replicated Osage…

Cost: $1,120,000Savings: $5,400,000 Per Year

# of residents: 16,18120 yr total savings: $107,000,00020 yr savings per resident: $6600

"I don't see any difference between a dollar brought in by a new business and a dollar that's saved due to energy conservation," Wes Birdsall, Supervisor, Osage Municipal Utilties

2000 Watt SocietyFederal Institute of Technology, Zurich. Switzerland

• Cut overall rate of energy use to 2000 watts (17,520 kwh per year) by 2050 without lowering standard of living

• Current rate of energy use:– USA - 12,000 watts– Western Europe - 6,000 watts– China - 1500 watts– India - 1000 watts– Bangladesh - 300 watts

2000 watt initiative

Breakdown of average energy consumption by Swiss person (July 2008):* 1500 watts for living and office space (this includes heat and hot water)* 1100 watts for food and consumer discretionary (including transportation of these to the point of sale)

* 600 watts for electricity * 500 watts for automobile travel * 250 watts for air travel * 150 watts for public transportation * 900 watts for public infrastructure

Switzerland was last a 2000 watt society in 1950

2000 watt cont’d“It is envisaged that achieving the aim of a 2000-watt society will

require, amongst other measures, a complete reinvestment in the country's capital assets; refurbishment of the nation's building stock to bring it up to low energy building standards; significant improvements in the efficiency of road transport, aviation and energy-intensive material use; the possible introduction of high-speed maglev trains; the use of renewable energy sources, district heating, microgeneration and related technologies; and a refocusing of research into new priority areas.

As a result of the intensified research and development effort required, it is hoped that Switzerland will become a leader in the technologies involved. Indeed, the idea has a great deal of government backing, due to fears about climate change”

Waste Heat Recovery

Relative LocationNotre Dame University Computer Servers

Housing servers in the desert dome (a greenhouse), where air currents can carry away their waste heat, is expected to save the university about $100,000 in cooling costs. Meanwhile, the city will save some of the $70,000 it spends each year to keep the conservatory warm. Given that the conservatory was cut out of the city’s 2010 budget altogether, such steps toward self-sufficiency are necessary to ensure its continued existence.

Cogeneration

Jefferson County Cogen Co• Jefferson Co residential use: 75 million KWH

• Plant Size: 10 MW• Annual KWH production: 74 million KWH• Fuel: Baled switchgrass• Acres required: 5,200• Acres in Jefferson co: 261,000• Payments to Farmers: $2-3 Million • Cost electricity: 6 cents/kwh• Waste heat available: equiv to 5,000,000 gallons of oil - could

heat 12,000 not-efficient homes or hundreds of acres of greenhouses

• Plant cost: $15-20 Million• Current Jefferson Co Residential Electricity Costs: $8 Million

Eco - efficiency vs Eco-effectiveness: A critique of efficiency-only approaches

Efficient at what - efficiency alone is not a virtueLess bad vs goodGoal of efficiencyBeyond efficiency and sustainabilityFecundity and abundanceMexico- Canada analogy

Photosynthesis and Cherry blossoms

William Mcdonough

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53WWhZ9XxzM

Critique of Efficiency

• Efficient at what? Efficiency is not a virtue like truth, love, or beauty

• Ecoefficiency vs Ecoeffectiveness– Less bad solutions vs effective solutions

• Can extend the lifetime and applicability of poor design solutions

• Jevon’s Paradox

………Sailing to a clean energy economy

"....we realized that the conventional wisdom is mistaken in seeing priorities in economic, environmental and social policy as competing. The best solutions are based not on tradeoffs or "balance" between these objectives but on design integration achieving all of them together - at every level from technical devices to production systems to companies to economic sectors to entire cities and societies "

- Amory Lovins, Natural Capitalism

"For all thinkers and researchers in any area of science and technology it is vital to maintain wakefulness of the total potential of Natural Law - self referral consciousness. Only this will ensure purity of principles on the theoretical level

of scientific research and pollution free technology"

-Maharishi

Lawrence A. Gamble, P.E.

Abundance Ecovillage1860 Woodland DriveFairfield, Iowa 52556

Tel 641-469-5240E-mail [email protected]

Ecovillage Development/Consulting/Education

EFFICIENCY, EFFECTIVENESS, DESIGN, AND ENERGYNature’s design intelligence resides in the unified field

WHOLENESS OF THE LESSON

The efficiency and effectiveness of a system depends largely in decisions made in the first few hours of design.

In higher states of consciousness efficiency and effectiveness in action is spontaneous

MAIN POINTS1. Most of the energy that flows through the economy is wasted. Nature grows niches that

effectively use energy at it’s highest levelMost of this wasted energy could be economically saved using cost effective, state of the shelf

technologies. . There is a difference between conservation and efficiency. Conservation is doing less with less.

Efficiency is doing more with less. Both are necessary. Growing in development of consciousness, one begins to operate with the spontaneous efficiency and effectiveness of nature.

Design is critical to efficiency. Nature’s designs are efficient and effective.Efficiency means using less materials and energy to perform a task. It says nothing about whether you

are doing the right thing. What we want is positive good – effectiveness, of which efficiency is just a part. Design is more comprehensive when awareness is more comprehensive

Effectiveness means that we are putting efficiency to work creating positive good rather than just making a bad system less bad.

What could we do?

Osage Example

Vital StatisticsProgram Management/Partnerships: Osage Municipal Utilities Demand-Side Management is a program of Osage Municipal Utilities (OMU). OMU works in partnership with Osage Nursery, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).  Budget: The program has cost OMU about $250,000, but has saved them -- and the city -- millions. Community Served: The 3,600 residents of Osage, Iowa. Measures of Success: Financial*Osage saves more than $1.2 million a year in energy costs.*The average homeowner saves almost $200 a year in energy bills; the average business saves even more.

Osage cont’d

Environmental Benefits *Over their lifetime, the 950 compact fluorescent bulbs in use will prevent the burning of nearly 200 tons of coal. *Every year the compact fluorescent bulbs will reduce annual pollution by nearly 1,000 tons of carbon dioxide and 13 tons of sulfur dioxide.

Program Replication *Numerous utilities across the United States and world have asked for information regarding the OMU program, including the Electricity Supply Association of New Zealand and the Swedish Power Board. The program has been replicated by 36 other Iowa utilities.

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Economists for the state of Nebraska estimate that only 20 cents worth of of every dollar spent on energy bills stays in the state. The rest leaves the state economy without generating further economic activity.

Energy conservation, in contrast has an economic multiplier of $2.32, meaning that every $1.00 spent conserving energy generates $2.32 in local economic activity.

Local Economy:Energy Efficiency

“America’s televisions draw enough standby power to light 5 million homes. Generating this power creates 1 million tons of carbon emissions”

- Sierra Magazine, July/Aug 2002

Auto Energy Analysis

If Poweshiek County Copied Osage…….

Cost: $1,320,000 one time costSavings: $ 6,300,000 per Year20 yr total: 127,000,00020 yr total per person: $6,66620 yr total per houshold:$17,100Population: 19,000Households: 7,400

Mcdonough web clip

The Manager vs the Executive

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Inherent Limits to Efficiency Improvements

There are inherent thermodynamic limits to energy conversion efficiencies (2nd law of thermodynamics).

The supply-side energy efficiency, currently at 37%, can be increased by at most two-fold.

The end-use energy efficiency can probably be increased by two to three-fold.

Total energy efficiency can be increased by five-fold.

There are limits to improving the efficiency of materials use since one cannot indefinitely “angelize” the economy.

There are limits to improving labor productivities since service sector and professional jobs cannot be mechanized.

Unintended Consequences of Efficiency Solutions

Increased vulnerability to resource shortages.

The problem of reverse adaptation: Efficiencies (means) become ends in themselves.

Optimization of technical efficiencies strengthens materialistic values and leads to neglect of non-material values.

Excessive focus on efficiency improvements may destroy the quality of life.

• Greater exploitation of workers and the environment (e.g., assembly line).

• Positive bias towards the quantifiable, leading to neglect of cultural or personal values such as fairness, equity, freedom, creativity, faith and aesthetics.

• Strong focus on rational problem solving while ignoring subjective viewpoints, potentially creating a world devoid of love and empathy.

Conclusions

Historical data demonstrate that many efficiency improvements have not been able to reverse the growth in the use of limited resources.

There are inherent thermodynamic and practical limits to allefficiency improvements. Therefore, it is impossible to have continued economic growth without increased use of limitednatural resources and associated pollution. The are numerous unintended side-effects to efficiency solutions. Society must avoid the “reverse adapation” problem by first defining societal values and goals BEFORE using technology with better efficiency to achieve them.

Resource use (R) declines with time only if efficiency (e) improvements outpace the growth in the demand for benefits (B), i.e., e increases FASTER than B.