6. makalah jurnal strategic business in turbulance conditions oil

STRATEGIC PLANNING IN A TURBULENT

ENVIRONMENT : EVIDENCE FROM THE OIL MAJORS

Robert M. Grant

Prepared for Strategic

Mangement

Business Administration

FISIP UI, December 5, 2011

Wednesday, November 24, 1892 Est. 1869 Price 6d

BACKGROUND Sejak awal 1980-an,perencanaan strategis

merupakan pendekatan yang sistematis

secara formal yang dibawa oleh para sarjana

manajemen.

Untuk menyelidiki apakah dan bagaimana

praktek-praktek perencanaan strategis

perusahaan telah disesuaikan dengan dunia

perubahan yang cepat dan tak terduga

Member of the Asscoiated Press . Aenean commodo ligula eget dolor.

Aenean. Aenean commodo ligula eget

dolor. Aenhswse. Cejhciebce fcdcdcd.

ILLUSTRATED WEEKLY NEWSPAPER

( Mintzberg, 1994b: 110 )

WINTER Template

PLANNING AND

ENVIRONMENTAL

TURBULENCE:

THEORY AND

EVIDENCE

1. Scenario planning

2. Strategic intent and the role of

vision

3. Strategic innovation

4. Complexity and self

organization

The Literature

Perubahan di dalam lingkungan bisnis diperkuat terhadap

mewujudkan perencanaan strategis.

CHALLENGE

SOLLUTION

Scenario planning

Strategic intent and the role of vision

Strategic innovation

Complexity and self organization

Empirical evidence

“Bukti empiris menunjuk ke

koeksistensi formal dan

informal proses perencanaan

strategis”

Research Question

and

research method

Research Question and research method

Approach

Research Site

Research Questions

Method

Data Collection

THE MAIN

FEATURES OF

STRATEGIC PLANNING

AMONG THE OIL COMPANY

THE MAIN FEATURES OF STRATEGIC

PLANNING

AMONG THE OIL COMPANY

The role and organization of coorporate planning

staffs

Strategic planning cycle

Differences between the companies

THE ROLE AND ORGANIZATION OF

COORPORATE PLANNING STAFFS

PROVIDING TECHNICAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT

FOSTERING MANAGEMENT AND CORPORATE COMMUNICATION

PREPARING INVESTIGATION OF BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

INTERNAL CONTROL

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN COMPANIES

ABSTRACT

The Planning Heritage of ‘Big Oil’

Forces for Changes

The Changing Foundations of Strategic Planning

Shifting Strategic Planning Responsibilities

Growing Informality of the Planning Process

The Content of Strategic Plans

1960-an

Koordinasi dan kontrol perusahaan semakin sulit

Sebagian besar oil majors mengembangkan departemen perencanaan perusahaan

Tugas departemen perencanaan

Meramalkan tren pasar energi dan ekonomi.

1970-an Diversifikasi memperluas peran departemen

perencanaan perusahaan

1980-an Departemen terlibat peramalan permintaan,

penawaran, harga, profits margin

Departemen perencana

perusahaan Perusahaan

Divisi Manajemen

Types and duration of plans & Strategic planning goals

Amoco BP

• 5 thn rencana strategis. • 1 thn rencana kinerja

(target keuangan & anggaran).

• Meningkatkan kualitas pengambilan keputusan.

• Koordinasi yg efektif antar bisnis.

• Penekanan pada pengembalian shareholders

• Kontrak kinerja antar bisnis & perusahaan.

• Mengembangkan kompetensi.

Rencana strategis 5 thn diformulasikan untuk seluruh perusahaan

Elf Aquitaine ENI

Rencana strategis dirumuskan oleh masing-masing unit bisnis, divisi,

perusahaan (5-10 thn)

Kontrol perusahaan dari divisi dan meningkatkan

kinerja perusahaan.

Kontrol perusahaan atas strategi operasi dan untuk

efisiensi biaya perusahaan.

4 thn rencana strategis untuk tiap unit bisnis dan

sektor.

Exxon Mobil

Menetapkan target dan koordinasi strategi divisi

Meningkatkan kinerja melalui target kuantitatif.

• Rencana strategis (hulu 14 thn, hilir dan kimia 4-5 thn).

• 2 thn prakiraan keuangan.

Rencana strategis 5 thn

Shell Texaco

Meningkatkan kualitas strategi perusahaan

operasi dan koordinasi lintas sektor dan wilayah.

Perencanaan strategis sebagai mekanisme untuk mendapat pengetahuan

dan mengendalikan keuntungan pemegang

saham.

• 15-20 thn berdasarkan skenario

• 5 thn rencana strategis kuantitatif

• 1 tahun (rencana taktis anggaran dan target kinerja).

• Rencana strategis 20 thn dari proses perencanaan skenario.

• 5-10 thn rencana bisnis yang diformulasikan untuk tiap sektor, negara, wilayah.

1986 Harga minyak jatuh dan persaingan meningkat

Transformasi

Strategi perusahaan, struktur, proses manajemen, dan sistem

perencanaan perusahaan

Forces for Changes

The Changing Foundations of Strategic Planning

1980-an Harga minyak mentah menurun drastis

1992 Harga minyak $20 per barel

John Browne

“Realitas dan pola siklus ekonomi saat ini dan dari itu ditetapkan beberaoa pedoman bagi diri sendiri bagaimana Anda bisa menilai kinerja Anda sendiri.”

1980-an & 1990-an

Perusahaan mengurangi peramalan dan staf ekonom

Mendasarkan seluruh proses perencanaan strategis berdasarkan beberapa analisis skenario

Memberi dasar perkiraan finansial dan tarket kerja

Shell

Harga Referensi

SHIFTING STRATEGIC RESPONSIBILITIES

FROM CORPORATE MANAGERS TO BUSINESS MANAGEMENT

FROM STAFF TO LINE MANAGERS

Peran staff perencanaan

Ukuran departemen perencanaan

Peran manajer divisi

Tanggung jawab

eksekutif

The Content of Strategic Planning

A shift from detailed planning to strategic direction

Increased emphasis on performance planning

The Role of

Strategic Planning

The Role of Strategic Planning

Strategic planning as a context for strategic decision making

03 Strategic planning as a context for strategic decision making

• Influencing the methodologies and techniques of strategic planning.

• Providing channels and forums for communication and knowledge sharing.

Example : Exxon & Shell

04 Strategic planning as a mechanism for coordination

• In general, the more decentralized was strategic decision making, the greater the emphasis on strategic planning as a coordinating device.

Example : Shell & Amoco

05 Strategic planning as a mechanism for control • Strategic planning's function as a control system

had shifted from one based upon strategy content to one based upon strategy outcomes

Example: BP

Discussion

Implications for Management Complexity

Implications for the Theory of The

Multidivisional Corporation

“Bottom – Up

Strategy” “Up- Down

Strategy”

The transfer of strategic planning responsibilities from

staff planners to line managers

Providing a bridge between the opposing

views of strategy as a design and strategy as process campsnto browser

Implications for the Theory of The Multidivisional Corporation

business strategy corporate strategy

Conclusion

Strategic Planning practice have Changed

The Study Pointed to the Limited impact of strategic planning processes upon the quality

of strategic planning process

The Study has Implications for the Study of Strategic Management

39