5G the BIG Game Changer ? Peter Cochrane cochrane.org.uk ca-global.biz
Jul 15, 2015
what we know for sure ?I n t h i s a re n a o f r ap i d l y c h a n g i n g m o b i l e t e c h
W i F i d o m i n a t e s d a t a t r a f f i c c a r r i e d ~ 50%Wired comes a c lose second ~ 45%
3G / 4G are bit players ~ 5%
Ver y f ew new mob i l e tower s i t e s av a i l a b l eM o b i l e n e t wo r k s a re c o n g e s t e d
Data traf f ic of f load is v ita l
Network inf i l l demands customer micro-cel lsCopper DSL bandwidth is a l imiter
FTTH programmes are scarceFTTH instal ls are rare
The Future is dominated bySYMMETRICS E RV I C E S
more of the same but better ?Where did the innovation go, what has stopped the industry thinking
Constrained market sizePhysical limits to network growth
Artificial bandwidth limitations and high costsThe illusion of bandwidth scarcity and limitations
unclear what / Who will win !
Looking geek factorLack of real utility and RoIMay be part of an evolving PAN ecologyMost likely a meld of health, sensors, computing & comms
An unknown quantity and predicated more by fashion that tech
and what else ?M o b i l e wo r k i n g i s g row i n g f a s t
BYOD becoming commonplaceMulti-mobile device now the normDevice interworking now a necessityCloud working / storage growing fast
IoT making early entry
Growing
expectation
Device to device networking apps availableDevice interworking now a necessity
Shorter
dwell times
Transient
employmentDIY IT + Security
Avid Cloud User
aN IoT/CoT Future + Unknowns
• material sourcing• manufacturing history• distribution and supply chain• purchase and ownership details• application, usage, maintenance, repair• repurposing, reuse, recycling sequence• +++
This vision does not scale by energy demands, functionally, or economically, but networks without infrastructure do!
Everything tagged, tracked, on-l ine (???) and communicat ing ++
2G << 2.5G << 3G << 4G << 5G
Incremental or leap ?
High on PromiseLow on Delivery
High on PromiseLow on Delivery
The GreatWhiteHope
More of the same but slightly better or new thinking
A few tech tweaksno b ig changes
Vo i ce + Data Add Ons
Major new designvoice and data
In teg ra tedOpera t i on
Data dominateddesign IP BasedNew Spectrum
Squeezingmore intothe same
Spectrum slicing and dicing to support 4G
This cannot be fudgedit needs radical thinking
and solutions
spectrum demandsShrinking cells & demandfor more bandwidth and farmore isolation and reuse
20km
1mm
10mm
100mm 1m
10m 100m 1km
kb/s
Mb/s
Gb/s
Tb/s
UHF
SHF
EHF
Analogue VoiceDigital Services
IoT Clouds
IiT
Mns
50 - 250Bn
DeviceNumbers
OperatingFrequency
andBandwidth
new Modes
Old thinking wil l not cut the mustard !
On Chip
On Card
On Shelf
A radical view ??
We have no digital radios - only analogue bent to our digital will!
Thinking and doing nothing new will deliver no real value
If the mobile industry is to prosper - there is no option!
copper modems for wireless systems
We took what we new and understoodfrom a world of narrow band copper & adapted it to the limitations of wireless
bands & channels ARE an Analogue legacy
The antithesis of digital thinking and needs born out of the age of the valve,Morse Code, Telex, and Broadcast
a ‘fork lift’ history / legacyBig masts, big transmitters, big receivers, high power, no mobility
Broadcast dominated, one way communication, long distances,interference, government controls, regulation, licensing +++
‘fork lift’ today !Old band, channel, modulation thinking
Operat ing frequencies are much h igher, butthe same old modes persist with interference, government controls, regulation, licensing +++
what might we doI f we assumed a clean sheet of paper
I f we went truly dig ita lI f we abandoned bandsI f we abandoned channelsI f we adapted dig ita l thinking
No l icencesNo controlsNo regulat ionNo government
Might it lead to a world of
AND new demandsBeyond, voice , TXT, browsing and data+
Cloud workingMult i-Cloud workingThings on l ine/IoT/CoTSecurity auto-immunity systemsNetworks without infrastructure
All of the above are symmetric, autonomous,exhibit highly variable bandwidth needs, dynamic location dependency, mobilityand spontaneous in their demands..
Actually it is mostly unused!
City of Chicago study <17% of commercial spectrum used
the is no spectrum fAmine !
spectrum futures
Short range cell and point to point give higher reuse ratios and BW advantage >> 1,000,000 microwave to Radio and Infrared to Microwave
Infrared and Microwave enjoy very similar propagation performance over short distances
Bandwidth and Frequency are the determinant features
Water
Oxygen Water Water
Oxygen
spectrum PAST AND future
The Old World
Analogue Root Long Distances Low Bandwidth Complex CodingBands & Channels
Global Constraints Country Regulated Spectrum Planning Licensed Control Policed Operation
Digital RootShort Distances High BandwidthSimple Coding
No Bands No Channels Licence Codes No Spectrum Plan
The New World
band / channel wastageThe signal space is mostly unoccupied - efficiency of use << 10%
960
Operator 1 Operator 2 Operator 3
MHz
W/m2µ
950940
0.01
0.001
0.1
100
10
1
960
spectrum futures
dBm
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
-30
-50
-70
-90
-110
B a n d s a n d c h a n n e l s k i l l s p re a d e f f i c i e n c i e s
We c a n t r y t o c o n t i nu e o n t h i s p a t h
O r w e c a n a d o p t ‘ m a s s i v e s p r e a d s a n d o p e ra t e b e l ow t h e t h e r m a l n o i s e l e v e l
S/N dB
BW Hz
Duration
T seconds Information transmitted over a channel expressed as a volumetric function of S/N, BW and Time - aka Claude Shannon 1945/46
I = B.T log2(1 + k.S/N)
I ~ B.T.K.S/NdB
vv
Back to basics!
Spread Spectrum allows us to fill this volume !
The theoretical limit for a channel can also be applied to a band !
What is theoretical ly possible ? By the application of a l i t t l e e n g i n e e r i n g licence !!
S/N dB
BW Hz
Duration
T seconds
For real time communication we can in general only trade BW and S/N, but for non-real time we can also include T as a third variable….
An often forgotten trade off!The same information transmitted in different modes of S/N, BW and T
actuality - city locationSub-optimal (grossly inefficient) signal space occupancy
BandWidth
S/N
t
Signal space visibly available in every dimension of channel and band - to be used/exploited by
Spread Spectrum across as wide a frequency range as possible…
EVEN More Rad icalWhy apply the artificial limits of banding when there is no need?
Water
Oxygen Water Water
Oxygen60GHz Band = 7 GHz
57 - 64 = 7GHz
50 - 300 = 250GHz
50 - 300 GHz could be used with occupancy dynamically determined by application and distance -coding shaped spectrum to occupy the signal space to maximise usage…
G r e a t e r t o l e r a n c e t o p h a s e n o i s eS i m p l e r s y n c h / t r a i n i n g s e q u e n c e s
G re a t e r i n t e r f e re n c e i m mu n i t yS i m p l e r m o d u l a t i o n / c o d i n g
B e t t e r s p re a d e f f i c i e n c yG re a t e r a d ap t a b i l i t y
L e s s ove r a l l p owe rF a s t e r a c q u i s i t i o n
H i g h e r b i t r a t e sH i g h e r u t i l i t y
B e t t e r S / N
Advantage sans bands, channels and controlsmass ive spreads
Lower energy demands = smaller batteries / longer up times
60GHz Electronics
Many of the base components necessary are nowavai lable in an experimental /pre-production form and we can concentrate on the design and system engineering detai l…
Not SciFi and technology - just engineering
challenges to come !
Blue ToothShort RangeDevice to DeviceDevice to Cloud
WiFi/WiMaxMedium RangeWLAN/Cloud
3, 4, 5, 6 GLong Range
Device to NetDevice to Cloud
SatComBroadcast
Conflicted technologies,integrated and intelligent
security systems embedded into all products and all components
Mix of narrow / wideband, short / long reach, modulation, coding
antenna futures
Fractal designs have been the great white hope for uni f ied antennas spanning BlueTooth, WiFi , 3G, 4G - but they have not l ived up to their early promise - as yet !
A war for mobi le device real estate
what is our actual mission here ?
“The maximal exploitation of the EM Spectrum to the advantage of Man and Machine for the purposes of communication, sensing, manipulation, and processing”
“And to exploit the ‘spectrum space’ to best advantage in every d imens ion inc lud ing per formance, sustainability and longevity”