GRUPPO TELECOM ITALIA 5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators Pisa , June 19th 2017 Technology Innovation - Technological Scouting, Trend Analysis & Future Center Gabriele Elia [email protected] @EliaGabriele
GRUPPO TELECOM ITALIA
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Pisa , June 19th 2017
Technology Innovation - Technological Scouting, Trend Analysis & Future CenterGabriele Elia [email protected] @EliaGabriele
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Key Issues
• Il contesto competitivo
• La tecnologia: radio e core
• Radio: nuove frequenze più banda, MU MIMO, small cell, vRAN/Cloud Ran
• Core: Fibra, NFV e SDN, AI
• I terminali; ne parliamo a fine 2019? https://www.cnet.com/news/5g-network-wireless-phones-qualcomm-2019-are-coming-earlier-than-you-thought/
• La timeline dello standard, commerciale , frequenze
• Prima lo standard o prima i vertical? Un tentativo del 5G
• I trial nel mondo: USA, Asia ed EU e Italia
• I trial in Italia
• Alcune best practice: Bristol, Surrey…
• I player industriali: una gara a 4
• Impatto della connettività diffusa, del superamento di numero in oggetti non phones, con la complicazione del SW
• Softwarizzazione della rete: un Network OS e Anything As A Service?
• Google? Microsoft? Huawei?
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The Context: Network Traffic Growth, The Explosion of Video, Disruptions by Digitalization, IoT, Big Data, AI
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Data Traffic Growth, WW, 70% YoY
Source: Ericsson MobilityReport
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Italy is similar … 2021 vs 2016 signs a x3 in Internet Traffic
Source: Cisco VNI5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
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Video will be most part of Internet traffic: 80% at 2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/digital-scoreboard
Quasi l’80% del traffico Internet al 2020 nel mondo sarà Video
Il traffico video crescerà di 4 volte tra 2015 e 2020, (CAGR di oltre il 30%)
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Distruption from Digitalization … eg Advertising: Internet overtakes TV !!
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And in Italy too ... Facebook and Google adv business
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"Internet" FB e Google TV Carta
"Internet"
FB e Google
TV
Carta
Italia 2017, «stime»
Internet 2.5Mdi€,
di cui FB+Google: 2 Mdi €!
TV: quasi 4Mdi €, stabile
Carta: 1 Md €
http://www.nielsen.com/it/it/press-room/2017/the-advertising-market-in-italy-in-2016.html
http://www.engage.it/eventi/advertising-online-un-mercato-da-236-miliardi-nel-2016-in-crescita-del-9/90759#XMtcPRr1OrR2KbEv.97
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IoT “Every object will be connected”
Over 20 Billions will be the installed base ofconnected devices in 2020 (GSMA)
CISCO VNI http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/mobile-white-paper-c11-520862.html#MeasuringMobileIoTGSMA http://www.gsma.com/globalmobiletrends
M2M connections will grow from 780 Mlnin 2016 to 3.3 Bln by 2021 globally (CISCOVNI)
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Big Data, AI, ML
https://whatsthebigdata.com/2016/10/17/visually-linking-ai-machine-learning-deep-learning-big-data-and-data-science/https://www.capgemini-consulting.com/resource-file-access/resource/pdf/dti-ai-report.pdf
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5G, the next wave of communication technology
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5G The Next Wave of Communication Technology
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5G as a GPT - General Purpose Technology
• il 5G tra le cosiddette GPT (General Purpose Technologies) [*], alla pari di tecnologie che hanno condizionato lo
sviluppo economico worldwide (la stampa, le ferrovie, l’elettricità, Internet).
• Uno studio IHS (**) in collaborazione con Università americane prevede un contributo medio dell’ordine di 200 B$
all’anno alla crescita globale dell’economia nel periodo 2020-2035, pari a circa lo 0,2% della crescita annuale del PIL.
• Il valore cumulato è paragonabile al valore attuale del PIL della settima potenza industriale attuale (India).
• Ancora più impressionanti, nello studio citato, i dati sui volumi complessivi di transazioni economiche (global sales
activities) che si presume, nel 2035, saranno associate a tecnologie 5G, e pari a circa 12300 B$ (circa il 4% delle
transazioni economiche mondiali previste), distribuite in tutti i settori merceologici.
(*) https://ec.europa.eu/digital-singlemarket/en/news/5g-deploymentcould-bring-millions-jobs-andbillions-euros-benefits-study-finds
(**) Da “5GH Economy Impact” online https://www.qualcomm.com/media/documents/files/ihs-5geconomic-impact-study.pdf
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Started 2013 …
5G : Performance target IMT-2020 – Raccomandation ITU-R M.2083-0
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5G: usage scenarios and vertical industries
ENHANCED MOBILE BROADBAND
MASSIVE MACHINE TYPE COMMUNICATION
ULTRA RELIABLE AND LOW LATENCYCOMMUNICATIONS
Home Access
AR/VR
Smart Drive
3D Video, 4K, 8K screens
Digital Life
Work and playin Cloud
Industry 4.0
Mission Critical,Public Safety
Self Driving Car
Smart Home/Building
Smart City
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TIM Today: Pretty Good Anyway … 1 Gbps and 10 msec Latency ….
Quality & Security only on app level Devices per km2
1,000s with NB IoT
Battery Lifeyears
Small Cell100s
Latency10s of ms
Frequency<55 MHz medium low bands
Multimedia & Speed100s of MbpsSD/HD video
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5G … the next step
… la miglior sintesi tecnologicaLa miglior sintesi tecnologica
Network SlicingDifferentiated services
Device per km2 Milions
Batteriesdurations
10 years and more
Cells1000’s Small Cells
Latenza1/10 LTE, few ms
Multimedia and Speed10x LTE
UHD, 8K, Immersive Video, Cloud Computing
Frequencies100’s MHz,
New Radio, mmWave
High Quality and SecurityNetwork based
Relay DevicesAlways maximum coverage
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Fast means FAST!!!On Sunday, telecom operator etisalatannounced its fastest 5G live trial reaching 71Gbps, setting a global record in the industry.
the live trial of a remarkable download speed of over 70Gbps achieved over a 'pre-commercial' 5G site, operating over e-band using 2Ghz of bandwidth.
Oltre 30 Bits per Hertz
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/technology/etisalat-records-worlds-fastest-live-trial-of-5g
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How to get there?
• NR (New Radio)
• Nuove frequenze
• Efficienza spettrale aumentata
• MIMO e Beam Forming
• Advanced Small Cell, Cell Border Management
• Core Network
• Flat network, MultiRat
• Mobile SDN
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5G: Frequenze
… la miglior sintesi tecnologica
Larghezza di banda
Dimensione della cella
Frequenze
Servizi
W per il 5G5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia(*) http://www.corrierecomunicazioni.it/digital/48961_frequenze-5g-in-bilancio-25-mld-dall-asta-ma-e-giallo-sui-costi.htm
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5G NR: Antenne Attive
Elevation (Vertical)Beamforming
Azimuth (Horizontal)Beamforming
AzimuthBeamforming
ElevationBeamforming
FD-MIMOeNB
• Multi User• Full Dimensional/3D• Massive MIMO
Tecniche di beamforming
• Alte frequenze radio• Elevate larghezze di banda
Onde millimetriche (mmWaves)
• Antenna a schiera concentinaia di elementi radiantie sistemi attivi
• Crescono• Capacità• Efficienza spettrale
Sistemi Smart Antenna
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5G NR e Core: Cloud/Virtual RAN
Cloud/Virtual-RAN
Base Station
Virtual Base Station Cluster
Oggi Domani
Centralizzare
Coordinare
Virtualizzare
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5G NR e Core: Network Slicing come una delle tecnologia più innovative
… la miglior sintesi tecnologica
Slice come aggregato di funzioni di rete
Selezione dinamica delle slice per ciascuna componente di traffico
Accesso contamporaneo a più slice (orchestrazione)
Sicurezzanativa dedicata
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Network Slicing: andare oltre il modello Internet?
SLICE 2
(Reliability)
SLICE 1
(Latency)28 © 2017 Nokia
SLICE 3
(Throughput)
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http://www.3gpp.org/images/articleimages/ongoing_releases_900px.JPG
http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/study-groups/rsg5/rwp5d/imt-2020/Documents/S02-1_3GPP%20IMT-2020.pdf
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Trials around the world
CMCC
DoCoMo
KT
Europe
Italia
USA
3.6GHz, trials 2017
Commercialization plans (tentative)
28GHz USA 2017+28GHz Korea 2018+3.5GHz Europe 2019+3.5GHz China 20204.5GHz Japan 2020
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The path to 5G: projects and trial for Torino 5G; San Marino; MISE–5G IA Bari/Matera
Public safetySecurity enhancements to support citizen and assist police, using wearable cam, sensors, drones.
eTourismVirtual Reality City Tour with guides, multimedia info point with real time and HD infotainment contents
Smart City Environment monitoring and city sensors data collection in a Smart City Control Room
Traffic manag. Sensors and applications to intelligently manage in/out traffic and parking lots
eHealth Remote monitoring and remote assistance of patients
Smart retail Vertical solution for fashion brands (i.e. Internet of Products)
SAN MARINO
Matera
Bari
• Frequency: 43 band(3.7-3.8 GHz
• Collaboration: TIM, Fastweb, Huawei• More than 50 ecosystem partners on the territory• Timeframe: 2017-2020
A PARTNERSHIP APPROACH
• Full 5G coverage for the two cities by 2019 to test the new technology based on local needs• smart city, public safety, enviromental monitoring, industry 4.0, ehealth , media education and virtual
reality, automotive, street safety; logistic (Bari port) and culture (Matera)• Bari will be one of the first 4.0 ports in Italy, allowing better management of logistics and transport• In Matera, the 2019 European capital of culture, the aim will be to produce a 3D virtualisation and
reconstruction of archaeological sites and museums
TORINO
• Torino first 5G town (announced April 2017) • San Marino first european country • Government tender: Bari Matera
first live demos in end 2017 (Torino) and 1Q2018
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“Why Software Is Eating the World”
Marc Andreessen coined his famous sentence
“Why Software Is Eating the World” in The Wall
Street Journal six years ago.
Today, the idea that “every company needs to
become a software company” is considered almost
unavoidable to be efficient, effective and able to
compete in such a dynamic market.
Since 2007 concepts such as Programmable
networks and Software networking were discussed
in Research…
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…Software is eating the Telecoms
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…towards a new unifying service paradigm: X-as-a-Service
• With Softwarization, future infrastructures (e.g., 5G) will assume the form of extended and
distributed execution and communication environments, based on a “continuum” of virtual functions
and resources
• “X-as-a-Service” paradigm is emerging:
• SDN Controllers, Virtual Network Functions (VNF) and end-Users’ services/applications can be all seen as “apps” under some generalized
assumptions.
• Services can be seen as “chains” of service components (e.g., software tasks) executed/run onto pools
of logical resources (e.g., VMs, Containers) interconnected via logical network links (e.g., VPN);
• concept of “network slice”;
• This will also imply the emergence of a new complexity: how managing and orchestrating
dynamically a sheer number of virtual components (from VNF to microservices).
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• Emergent security AI methods could offers the potential for (almost) real-time security threat detection and
defense: speed to access big data in real time and the ability to learn are the main key points.
• Example: MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) created a startup PatternEx to
develop an Artificial Intelligence system (called AI2) which combines analyst intuition with machine learning
and use big data to build an end-to-end active learning system for security.
Source: http://thehackernews.com/2016/04/artificial-intelligence-cyber-security.html
• The system first scans the content with unsupervisedmachine-learning techniques and then, at the end ofthe day, presents its findings to human analysts;
• human analysts identify which events are actualcyber attacks and which aren't. This feedback is thenincorporated into the machine learning system ofAI2 and is used the next day for analyzing new logs.
Cybersecurity
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An end-to-end Operating System
Source: J. Doyle «Universal Laws and Architectures»
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Network OS, 5G OS – un esempio: Telenor and Cisco target telco innovators with “Android for network infrastructure”
Oct 2017 –
Telenor has launched a new platform which it is billing as the Android operating system of network infrastructure.
WorkingGroupTwo aims to build an "innovation ecosystem" for the telecoms sector, allowing operators to open up their networks to
offer new services more quickly.
Service providers pay a single installation fee as well as a monthly rate. The system is integrated on a host network by WorkingGroupTwo
through the same standard interfaces which are used to host traditional MVNOs.
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…and shift will continue from CAPEX (hw) to OPEX (sw)
Currently TLC is based on Four players … what’s next?
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Ericsson Cisco Nokia Alu Huawei ZTE IBM Microsoft
Annual Revenue B$, 2015
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Network as a Service enables completly new (global) competitor
http://us6.campaign-archive1.com/?u=e7ba52423a4c879d0ae56cbae&id=dd44fa0458&e=70df740c80#mctoc3
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Can AT&T Retrain 100.000 people?
Read 1 - Fortune's Aaron Pressman has the story.
Read 2 - http://www.dallasnews.com/business/att/2016/02/15/att-tells-its-280000-workers-adapt-to-new-technology-or-else
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Software Positive Returns to Employee
Research by Jae Song of the Social Security administration and four colleagues found that most of the rise of
inequality in pay from 1978 to 2013 was because some companies were paying more than others — not because of
a wider gap between high-paid and low-paid workers within a company.
“Employees inside winning companies enjoy rising incomes and interesting cognitive challenges,” the Stanford
economist Nicholas Bloom, one of the co-authors of that paper, wrote recently in Harvard Business Review.
“Workers outside this charmed circle experience something quite different.”
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.. Thanks to Software Positive Returns to Scale World
A Positive Returns-to-Scale World
The most extreme example of this would be the software business, where a company can invest bottomless sums
in a piece of software, but then sell it to each additional customer for practically nothing.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/upshot/the-amazon-walmart-showdown-that-explains-the-modern-economy.html
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5G and the Technology Substitution Trap, The Epiphany opportunity
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«Bristol IS OPEN»- Smart city strategy
City as a platform controlled in Sotfware
Source: http://www.bristolisopen.com/
Developments in SW, HW andtelecom networks creating aninternet of people and things.
Using data sensors, smart city technologies will be able to respond in real-time to everyday events including congestion, waste management, entertainment events, e-democracy, energy supply and more.
“Bristol is an open programmable city”
… a research and development laboratory for urban change
“Bristol is Open” – a joint venture between the University of Bristol and Bristol City Council. Bristol is Open is anecosystem with Industrial Partners, several Suppliers and Supporters.
The infrastructure is controlled in Software – creating a Software Defined Network – based on the OpenFlow standard. It uses Network Function Virtualisation to make the infrastructure super-fluid, sliceable, and usable by many different projects at once
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5G ad enbaler of digital tranformation
Once a vertical industry can safely assume that wireless connectivity is “truly anywhere and anytime” and can be guaranteed e.g. >99.999% of the time, the approach to system design and operation changes fundamentally. This will transfomr the current vertical industries into connected, fully digital verticals.
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/Documents/consumer-business/deloitte-uk-consumer-review-digital-predictions.pdf
Faster connectivity will allow consumer and brands to interact more and more in real time basis and while on the move
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5G will not only reshape the wireless industry but industries around it, pretty much every vertical of significance
5G will also be unique as the aggregate non-Phone devices will dominate phones for the first time globally. We will
have to figure out architectures, business models, and policies to deal with the consumer demand and
expectations.
5g-chetan-sharma-consulting5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
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