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Long term (3 to 6 Months)

“

”

● MF equity flows climb to 11-month high, garner over Rs 10,000 crore

● Offshore Oil sector slammed by price plunge, coronavirus fears

Focus on UK budget today

and ECB policy tomorrow

● Australia unveils $1.6 billion health package to combat coronavirus

● US considers actions to bolster U.S. economy as coronavirus cases mount

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net | www.treasuryelite.com| Blog: www.abhishekgoenka.com

From CEO's Desk

Medium term (Upto 3 Months) Intraday

Note: The above outlook is based on IFA Global Research Academy Proprietary ("IFA Dollar - Rupee Sentiment Index") based on various

techno-fundamental factors relevant to the particular outlook horizon. The index weights have been arrived at after rigorous back

testing. The factors which are considered for computation of barometers includes pre-defined and back tested weightage given to

fundamental factors such as economic data, FII flows, Global equity markets, Government & RBI activity, Onshore-offshore activity, other

peer currency performance and other macro economic factors. Further, this module also considers factors such as major MPC member's

speech, meeting or summit. On the technical front, factors include indicators and oscillators such as RSI, stochastic, combination of

moving averages and other basic & advance technical studies. (0 - 20%=extremely bearish, 21% - 40%=bearish, 41% - 60%=neutral, 61% -

80%=bullish, 81% - 100% extremely bullish)

News On The Street

70% 76% 75%

Mr. Abhishek Goenka

The incremental new Coronavirus cases in China and Korea have slowed down

significantly. 80% of Chinese companies have resumed operations. 38 of the 42 Apple

stores in China have recommenced operations. Capacity is likely to return to normal

by April end. Situation in the West is however still concerning. President Trump is likely

to announce stimulus measures including a cut in payroll taxes to shield the economy,

targeted measures for tourism and hospitality industry. Trump has also increased

pressure on the Fed to slash rates further. UK budget is due today. It is likely to be an

expansionary one to deal with the impact of Coronavirus induced disruptions to the

economy. We are likely to see an increase in public spending and CAPEX. This may

weigh on the Sterling. 1.2750 is crucial support. Only a break and close above 1.32

would entail a reversal. The ECB policy is due tomorrow. The tone of the policy is

expected to be very dovish. 10bps cut is factored in. We may even see the asset

purchases being doubled to EUR 40bn a month. The Euro has come off highs as US

yields have recovered. The Euro is likely to closely track the US-Germany 2y bond yield

spread. The more the spread widens, the more would be the pressure on the Euro.

Rupee opened today at 73.80. Likely range for the day is 73.65-74.15.

Strategy: Exporters are advised to cover partially around 74.00. Importers are advised

to cover through Risk reversal option strategy (Buy Call & Sell Put). The 3M range for

USDINR is 71.50 - 74.50 and the 6M range is 71.00 - 75.00.

IFA Dollar- Rupee Sentiment Index

● U.S. Treasury likely to push back April 15 tax filing deadline

“USDINR

$ INDEX

EURUSD

GBPUSD

USDJPY

AUDUSD

GOLD

”

● USDINR (RANGE- 73.65 - 74.15)

The USDJPY pair erased majority of its losses amid modest recovery in

the dollar index. Fueling gains in equities were prospects of fiscal

stimulus from Trump. The government is looking to potentially waive

payroll taxes. While coronavirus fears remain significant, US Inflation

data may influence the price action today.

The USDINR pair opened lower by 28 paise at 73.80 as the Rupee

appreciated tracking gains in other Asian counterparts. Market

participants are of the view that the RBI will intervene in the case of

sharp depreciation in the Rupee and also expect them to follow steps

of other global banks in lowering interest rates and providing stimulus.

The EURUSD pair retraced back erasing Monday's 200 pips surge

facilitated by technical factors and some recovery in the US stocks. The

gross domestic product of the eurozone grew by 0.1% in the fourth

quarter of 2019, its slowest expansion since 2014, according to the

latest data from Eurostat. Expectation of dovish statements from the

upcoming ECB meeting is likely to keep the Euro under pressure.

● USDJPY (RANGE- 104.30 - 105.30)

Q2 FY 2020-21

● EURUSD (RANGE- 1.1280 - 1.1380)

102.00-106.00 ↓


97.00- 100.00

1.2600-1.3600 ↓ 1.2800-1.3800

0.6500- 0.7000

95.00- 100.00 ↓

Gains in the cable were shortlived despite expectations of big stimulus

package and measures to help combat the Covid-19 outbreak from the

UK end. Focus will now turn to UK GDP, industrial production data and

budget where there is an expectation of an increase in public spending

and CAPEX. The pair is likely to trade on a volatile note on account of

key events scheduled today.

Q4 FY 2019-20

101.00-108.00 105.00-110.00

69.50 - 73.50 ↑70.50-74.50 ↑

DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT

● GBPUSD (RANGE- 1.2860 -1.3000)

IFA Outlook

Q3 FY 2020-21

March 11, 2020

Q1 FY 2020-21

FX Outlook for the day

69.50-74.50 ↑

1.2700-1.3300 ↓

0.6400-0.6800 ↓ 0.6450- 0.7100

95.00- 100.00 ↓

1.1000-1.1650 ↑

$1500- $1750 ↑

1.2800-1.3800

95.00- 99.00 ↑

0.6800- 0.7500

$1500- $1700 ↑

Headlines on Covid-

19 and ECB Policy

are likely to influence

the price action this

week

71.00-74.50 ↑

106.00-111.00 ↓

1.1200-1.1800 ↑1.1000-1.1500 1.1100-1.1500 ↓

$1450- $1800 ↑ $1450- $1800 ↑

“

”

“

”

“

”

● FII activity against USDINR and Nifty

March 11, 2020


Activity Kurtosis

● USDINR Open Interest (March Expiry )

Highest OI for Call

stands at 74.00 and

Put at 71.50 strike

price. Highest OI

intraday buildup is

seen at 74.00 Put.

Chart of the Day USDINR Spot 73.96


From last two weeks, the USDINR pair is trading on a

highly volatile note. The pair continues its bullish

momentum, currently hovering around 74.00 mark.

Immediate resistance for the pair stands at an all-time

high of 74.50 level.

FIIs have so far

infused $9.98 billion

in the Financial year

2019-20

LIBOR ON 1M 6M 1Y MONTH 1M 3M 1Y 2Y

USD 1.08 0.81 0.77 0.79 USDINR 0.28 0.78 2.96 6.92

EUR -0.57 -0.58 -0.47 -0.42 EURINR 0.43 1.17 4.43 10.15

JPY 0.04 -0.18 -0.12 -0.03 GBPINR 0.39 1.08 3.94 9.18

JPYINR 0.36 0.98 3.72 8.61

REGION LAST % CHANGE LAST CHANGE % CHANGE

ASIA 25402.40 0.04 1660.49 8.10 0.49

3006.50 0.32 17.08 0.13 0.75

19573.59 -1.48 35.30 0.94 2.74

INDIA 35659.29 0.07 96.12 -0.29 -0.3

10445.35 -0.06 103.66 -0.08 -0.08

EUROPE 4636.61 -1.51

10475.49 -1.41 FY 2019-20 CY 2020 9-Mar-20

5960.23 -0.09 55,647 1,465 -3,480

US 25018.16 4.89 10,533 -10,685 -140

8344.25 4.95 7,737 2,390 0

73,917 -6,830 -3,619

“ Pivot S2 S1 P R1 R2

USDINR 73.71 73.89 74.03 74.21 74.35

EURINR 82.82 83.27 84.13 84.58 85.44

GBPINR 94.40 94.99 96.13 96.72 97.86

JPYINR 69.04 69.86 71.24 72.06 73.44

”

Currency Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

10-Mar EUR 6:00 PM 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% NEUTRAL

11-Mar GBP 5:30 PM 0.2% 0.3%

GBP 5:30 PM 0.2% 0.3%

USD 8:30 PM 0.2% 0.2%

NIKKEI

Rolling Forward Premiums


Figures are in INR Crores

Major Global Events

Macro Monitor

TOTAL

EQUITY

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan)

GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

GDP (MoM)

SENSEX

Bloomberg ADXY

GOLD ($/ounce)HANG SENG

NIFTY

WTI CRUDE ($/brl)

Dollar INDEX

LIBOR Rates

SHANGHAI

COMMODITIES/DI


Major Global Rates

SILVER ($/ounce)

Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)

Pivot Points

GLOBAL INDICES

DAX

FTSE

DOW

NASDAQ HYBRID

March 11, 2020

GBPINR pair is likely to find support at

94.99 (S1)

Quick Glance

CAC

FPI INFLOWS

DEBT

IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER

While every effort has been made to ensure that the data quoted and used for the research behind this document is reliable, there is no guarantee that it is correct, and IFA Global can accept no liability whatsoever in respect of any errors or omissions, or regarding the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. This document

does not constitute a recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and is not

intended to constitute investment advice, nor to solicit dealing in securities or in any other kind of investments. Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss trading off-exchange forex contracts can be

substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as

trading advice or strategy. IFA Global makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change. Any prices stated in this report are for information purposes only and do not represent valuations

for individual securities or other instruments.

Headquarters:-

India Forex Advisors Pvt. Ltd.H-125, 1st Floor, Kanakia Zillion, LBS Marg,

CST Road Junction, Bandra Kurla Complex Annexe, Kurla West,Mumbai-400070

Research & Analytics Desk: +91 8879390076 | Treasury Audit & Bank Negotiation Desk: +91 8879630572 | FX & Treasury Advisory Desk: +91 8879600618 | FX Trading & Options Desk: +91 8291983820

Email: [email protected] can also visit our website: www.ifaglobal.net

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