Postsecondary Education Review Commission Impact of Shifting Enrollments on Resources in Louisiana September 29, 2009
Feb 09, 2016
Postsecondary Education Review Commission
Impact of Shifting Enrollments on Resources in Louisiana
September 29, 2009
5-Year Budget Outlook5-Year Budget Outlook
2
9.4 8.1 8.2 8.5 8.8
9.4 8.1 9.1 10.5 10.7
.9
1.9
1.9
Source: Louisiana Division of Administration
Postsecondary Education “Budget” Outlook and Issues
• FY2009-10, the current year
– Effective reduction of $120+ million in direct operational funding between State fund reductions and federal stimulus replacement, an 8.7% effective reduction in “State” support but only a 3.3% reduction in overall support
• FY2010-11, next fiscal year
– Uncertainty of outlook
– Recent communication from the Administration to the Postsecondary Education Review Commission projecting a minimum $146 million additional funding reduction
• FY2011-12, the following fiscal year
– Projected “big budget problem”, a State budget shortfall projected at almost $2 billion
– Federal stimulus funding ends
Louisiana Postsecondary Education FundingFY2009-10
By Means of Financing, in Millions of $
State General Fund $1,266.0
ARRA Funds $189.7
Statutory Dedicated Funds $158.7
Self Generated Revenue $820.4
Interagency Transfers $435.9
Federal Funds $177.6
Total $3,048.3
Louisiana Postsecondary Education FundingFY2009-10
By Means of Financing, in Millions of $
State General Fund $1,266.0
ARRA Funds $189.7Statutory Dedicated Funds $158.7Self Generated Revenue $820.4Interagency Transfers $435.9Federal Funds $177.6
Total $3,048.3
LOSFA (TOPS, Go Grant and Dual Enrollment)State General Fund $154.3ARRA Funds $0.0Statutory Dedicated Funds $22.0Self Generated Revenue $0.1Interagency Transfers $2.0Federal Funds $81.5
Total $259.9
Postsecondary Education without LOSFA & Student AssistanceState General Fund $1,111.7ARRA Funds $189.7Statutory Dedicated Funds $136.7Self Generated Revenue $820.3Interagency Transfers $435.8Federal Funds $96.1
Total $2,788.4
Louisiana Office of Student Financial Assistance
and Student Financial Assistance
• TOPS - $130 million
• Go Grant - $34 million
• Dual Enrollment - $5.5 million
Source: Louisiana Board of Regents
Louisiana Postsecondary Education FundingFY2008-09 and FY2009-10
By Means of Financing, in Millions of $
Postsecondary Education Without LOSFA (TOPS, Go Grant & Dual Enrollment)
FY2008-09 After Mid-Yr Reductions FY2009-10 $ Change % Change
State General Fund $1,425.0 $1,111.7 -$313.3 -22.0%ARRA Funds $0.0 $189.7 $189.7"Net" State General Fund Reduction with Stimulus -$123.6 -8.7%Statutory Dedicated Funds $138.1 $136.7 -$1.4 -1.0%Self Generated Revenue $771.5 $820.3 $48.8 6.3%Interagency Transfers $425.6 $433.9 $8.3 2.0%Federal Funds $103.0 $96.1 -$6.9 -6.7%
Total $2,863.2 $2,788.4 -$74.8 -2.6%
Source: Louisiana Board of Regents
Louisiana Postsecondary Education FundingFY2008-09 and FY2009-10
By Means of Financing, in Millions of $
Postsecondary Education Without LOSFA (TOPS, Go Grant & Dual Enrollment)
FY2008-09 After Mid-Yr Reductions FY2009-10 $ Change % Change
State General Fund $1,425.0 $1,111.7 -$313.3 -22.0%ARRA Funds $0.0 $189.7 $189.7"Net" State General Fund Reduction with Stimulus -$123.6 -8.7%Statutory Dedicated Funds $138.1 $136.7 -$1.4 -1.0%Self Generated Revenue $771.5 $820.3 $48.8 6.3%Interagency Transfers $425.6 $433.9 $8.3 2.0%Federal Funds $103.0 $96.1 -$6.9 -6.7%
Total $2,863.2 $2,788.4 -$74.8 -2.6%
Louisiana Postsecondary Education State Funds
Final Budget, FY2008-09
1,040.9
1,263.7
66.2 49.0
122.8 127.7 126.8 128.4 128.1 157.9 155.2 138.1
1,433.3 1,425.0
1,043.6 1,044.0
843.9866.5
927.0961.5
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09
State General Fund Statutory Dedicated
Prior to mid-yr cut 1,476
Louisiana Postsecondary Education State Funds
Final Adopted Budget, FY2009-10
1,040.9
1,263.7
66.2 49.0
122.8 127.7 126.8 128.4 128.1 157.9 155.2 138.1 136.7
961.5927.0
866.5843.9
1,044.01,043.61,111.7
1,425.01,433.3
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10
State General Fund Statutory Dedicated
Prior to mid-yr cut 1,476
$313.4M General Fund Reduction
after 08-09 mid-yr reduction
Louisiana Postsecondary Education State Funds
Final Adopted Budget, FY2009-10
1,040.9
1,263.7
66.2 49.0
122.8 127.7 126.8 128.4 128.1 157.9 155.2 138.1 136.7
961.5927.0
866.5843.9
1,044.01,043.61,111.7
1,425.01,433.3
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10
State General Fund Statutory Dedicated
Prior to mid-yr cut 1,476
Federal Stimulus $189.7M
Stimulus Supported
Base $1.3 B
Louisiana Postsecondary Education State FundsFinal FY2009-10 Budget Status and Projected for FY2010-11
965.7M
840.9M
865.1M 934.5M
963.1M 1.04B 1.06B 1.03B
1.12B
1.42B 1.41B
1.11B
130.2M 89.0M 76.8M
146.5M 142.6 137.9M 147.5M 137.0M 171.4M 163.8M 138.2M 136.7M
$0
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
$800,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,400,000,000
$1,600,000,000
99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11
General Funds Stat Ded Funds
Minimum $146M SGF Reduction projected for FY10-11
Louisiana Postsecondary Education State FundsFinal FY2009-10 Budget Status and Projected for FY2010-11
965.7M
840.9M
865.1M 934.5M
963.1M 1.04B 1.06B 1.03B
1.12B
1.42B 1.41B
1.11B
130.2M 89.0M 76.8M
146.5M 142.6 137.9M 147.5M 137.0M 171.4M 163.8M 138.2M 136.7M
$0
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
$800,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,400,000,000
$1,600,000,000
99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11
General Funds Stat Ded Funds
Federal Stimulus $189.7M
Minimum $146M SGF Reduction projected for FY10-11
Louisiana Postsecondary Education State FundsFinal FY2009-10 Budget Status and Projected for FY2010-11
965.7M
840.9M
865.1M 934.5M
963.1M 1.04B 1.06B 1.03B
1.12B
1.42B 1.41B
1.11B
130.2M 89.0M 76.8M
146.5M 142.6 137.9M 147.5M 137.0M 171.4M 163.8M 138.2M 136.7M
$0
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
$800,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,400,000,000
$1,600,000,000
99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11
General Funds Stat Ded Funds
Federal Stimulus $189.7M
Stimulus Supported
Base$1.155B
Minimum $146M SGF Reduction projected for FY10-11
Louisiana Postsecondary Education State FundsFinal FY2009-10 Budget Status and Projected through 2010-11
1,040.9
1,263.7
961.5927.0
866.5843.9
1,044.01,043.6 965.7
1,111.7
1,425.01,433.3
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11
State General Fund Statutory Dedicated
1,301 with Stimulus
1,155 with Stimulus
146M SGF Reduction
Louisiana Postsecondary Education State FundsFinal FY2009-10 Budget Status and Projected for FY2010-11
965.7M
840.9M
865.1M 934.5M
963.1M 1.04B 1.06B 1.03B
1.12B
1.42B 1.41B
1.11B
130.2M 89.0M 76.8M
146.5M 142.6 137.9M 147.5M 137.0M 171.4M 163.8M 138.2M 136.7M
$0
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
$800,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,400,000,000
$1,600,000,000
99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11
General Funds Stat Ded Funds
$459.3M General Fund Reduction from 08-09 Level (after $55M mid-year cut)
$146M SGF Reduction
Louisiana Postsecondary Education FundingFY2009-10
By Means of Financing, in Millions of $
FY2009-10State General Fund $1,111.7ARRA Funds $189.7Statutory Dedicated Funds $136.7Self Generated Revenue $820.3Interagency Transfers $433.9Federal Funds $96.1
Total $2,788.4
Specialized Units & Boards
State General Fund $334.8
ARRA Funds $35.6
Statutory Dedicated Funds $91.7
Self Generated Revenue $107.8
Interagency Transfers $425.0
Federal Funds $96.1
Total $1,090.9
4-Year and 2-Year Institution Funding Only
State General Fund $776.9
ARRA Funds $154.1
Statutory Dedicated Funds $45.0
Self Generated Revenue $712.5
Interagency Transfers $8.9
Federal Funds $0.0
Total $1,697.5
With Stimulus Without Stimulus $976.0 $821.9
Institutions Health sciences centersAgricultural centersLaw centersStand-alone research centersBoards and system offices
Four Year/Two Year Institution Enrollment Mix Analysis
FY2008-2009 Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Enrollment:
Existing Mix of Enrollment FY2008-09
FY2009-10 Final Adopted Budget - "State & Stimulus
Funds"
State and Stimulus Funding
Rates
FY2009-10 Final Adopted Budget -
"State Funds"
State Funding
Rates Only
Four Year Institutions Enrollment 122,608 72.9% 781,159,593$ 6,371$ 656,078,087$ 5,351$
Two Year Institutions Enrollment * 45,582 27.1% 194,877,887$ 4,275$ 165,852,687$ 3,639$
Total FY 2008-2009 FTE Enrollment 168,190 100.0% 976,037,480$ 5,803$ 821,930,774$ 4,887$
Stimulus Funding Loss (154,106,706)$
Difference between 4-Yr and 2-Yr Rates 1,712$
* "Two Year" Institution enrollment and funding include the LTC.
Four Year/Two Year Institution Enrollment Mix Analysis
FY2008-2009 Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Enrollment:
Existing Mix of Enrollment
FY2008-09
FY2009-10 Final Adopted Budget
- "State & Stimulus Funds"
State and Stimulus Funding
Rates
FY2009-10 Final Adopted Budget -
"State Funds"
State Funding
Rates Only
FY2007-08 SREB
Average State
Funding Rates
Four Year Institutions Enrollment 122,608 72.9% 781,159,593$ 6,371$ 656,078,087$ 5,351$ 7,184$
Two Year Institutions Enrollment * 45,582 27.1% 194,877,887$ 4,275$ 165,852,687$ 3,639$ 4,751$
Total FY 2008-2009 FTE Enrollment 168,190 100.0% 976,037,480$ 5,803$ 821,930,774$ 4,887$
Loss of Stimulus (154,106,706)$
Difference between 4-Yr and 2-Yr Rates 1,712$ 2,433$
* "Two Year" Institution enrollment and funding include the LTC.
Four Year/Two Year Institution Enrollment Mix Analysis
Two Year Institution Enrollment Share:
44.0%
FY2008-2009 Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Enrollment:
Existing Mix of Enrollment
FY2008-09
FY2009-10 Final Adopted Budget - "State Funds"
State Funding
Rates Only
FY2007-08 SREB
Average State
Funding Rates
Alternative Mix
Resulting Enrollment
Adjusted Enrollment
SREB Average Mix Funded at FY09-10 State
Fund Rates
Four Year Institutions Enrollment 122,608 72.9% 656,078,087$ 5,351$ 7,184$ 56.0% 94,187 -28,421 503,994,734$
Two Year Institutions Enrollment * 45,582 27.1% 165,852,687$ 3,639$ 4,751$ 44.0% 74,004 28,421 269,264,491$
Total FY 2008-2009 FTE Enrollment 168,190 100.0% 821,930,774$ 4,887$ 100.0% 168,190 0 773,259,225$
Loss of Stimulus (154,106,706)$ (48,671,549)$
Difference between 4-Yr and 2-Yr Rates 1,712$ 2,433$
* "Two Year" Institution enrollment and funding include the LTC.
Four Year/Two Year Institution Enrollment Mix Analysis
Two Year Institution Enrollment Share:
44.0%
FY2008-2009 Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Enrollment:
Existing Mix of Enrollment
FY2008-09Alternative
MixResulting
EnrollmentAdjusted
Enrollment
SREB Average Mix Funded at FY09-10 State
Fund Rates
FY2007-08 SREB
Average State
Funding Rates
SREB Average Mix Funded at SREB Funding
Rates
Four Year Institutions Enrollment 122,608 72.9% 56.0% 94,187 -28,421 503,994,734$ 7,184$ $676,636,224
Two Year Institutions Enrollment * 45,582 27.1% 44.0% 74,004 28,421 269,264,491$ 4,751$ $351,591,689
Total FY 2008-2009 FTE Enrollment 168,190 100.0% 100.0% 168,190 0 773,259,225$ $1,028,227,913
(48,671,549)$ 206,297,139
* "Two Year" Institution enrollment and funding include the LTC.
• Differences in funding approaches between “old” and “new” formulas are significant
• New formula sets values for student credit hour production specifically for each institution, by level of student and discipline of the student credit hour
• Differentials remain in values based upon “type” of institution and its specific costs (SREB category)
• State/student shares of cost are function of “type” of institution (generally 60% or higher share for State @ 4-Yr vs. 70%+ State share @ 2-Yr.)
Analysis of Shifting Enrollment
Analysis of Shifting Enrollment• Analysis is based upon overall enrollment, not just entering freshmen
cohort
• Time will be required to “shift” enrollment in substantial amounts
• Nature of “shift” in mix will depend upon:– Overall growth in enrollment
– Degree of stability in 4-year enrollment
– Degree of growth in 2-year enrollment
• Possible Causes of “shift”– Admissions standards
– Growth in additional students to 2-year institutions
– Enrollment caps at 4-year institutions
– Significant change in “pricing” of respective types of institutions
• “Savings” potential from shifting enrollments:– SREB rates vs. Actual funding rates
– Impact of new formula approach
– Lowest funded 4-year institutions are likely to yield the most significant areas for potential shifts of enrollment, thus less “savings” potential