5-ECON939 Project

The united states stock and Oil Prices1

The Relationship between the United States Stock Return and the Oil Prices

Subject Code: ECON939Submitted by :Nour Mutair 4553573Ahmed Abu SharkhHassan Wahdan


AbstractOur project will examine the relationship between crude oil price(cp), stock market and

macroeconomic variables, the duration of research for the last 10 years for the macroeconomic

variables, we will include industrial production(ip), money supply(M2), inflation(IR)and it’s relation

with oil price and stock market. These factors have an effect on the performance of the economy that

can be analyzed and presented. Changes in oil prices coincide with changes in the stock prices of

some stocks but not necessarily the stock index not unless the change is experienced over a long

period.


ContentsThe Relationship between the United States Stock and the Brent................................................................1

Abstract......................................................................................................................................................2

METHODOLOGY..........................................................................................................................................4

CONCLUSION.............................................................................................................................................10


Introduction

Many studies concentrate on the macroeconomic variables and their direct effects on the stock

market. The vague effect on stock market due to change in oil price as well as other economic factors

might lead to delay of investor decision to go further for investment sin the stock market. As oil price

have a direct effect on other macroeconomic factors, hence oil price increase will lead to inflation and

reduction in customers spending. On other hand, increase in money supply leads to an increase in

liquidity for purchasing securities, while an increase in money supply leads to inflation which will

lead to higher interest rates and a fall in stock prices (Billah Dar, Shah, Bhanja & Samantaraya,

2014). Industrial production followed by company high sales and increase in profit will lead an

increase in company capital and stock prices that Leeds to confidence in investment of stock market.

This is witnessed in the economy when oil prices change; it is accompanied by changes in food

prices, stock price and a general improvement in the performance of the sectors of economy

(Büyüksalvarci & Abdioglu, 2010).

Literature review

Oil prices play a key role in the performance of the world economy. Studies have found

out that changes in oil prices affect consumer behaviors (Anoruo & Elike, 2009). When oil prices

decrease, consumers spend more on luxuries, which in turn drives the stock prices of companies

offering luxury goods. The prices of oil stocks drop since the companies record reduced income

that translates to low profits or even losses. Therefore, investors are lose faith in them and off

load them leading to a drop in their stock value. This shift in prices usually results to negligible

changes in overall stock index (Kapusuzoglu, 2011). This is because some stocks drop in price

while others increase. There are those whose companies are not affected in any way by the


changes in stock price. When oil prices increase, the stock prices of oil companies increase.

Consumers spend a significant amount of their money on oil leaving them with little money to

spend on luxuries. Consequently, the stocks of luxury good producers remain constant or do not

record significant changes (Asteriou, Dimitras & Lendewig, 2013).

METHODOLOGYHistorical data of the United States of America was collected from 1959 to 2014 to test

the significance of oil prices in the United States in determining the return on the U.S. stock

market. Theoretically, oil prices have been seen to impact greatly on prices of most items in the

market and we therefore wanted to see what impact it has had on the U.S. stock market.

Considering that oil prices affect most of the major indicators of a country’s development rate,

we develop a model to determine the impact of oil prices on various historical indices as follows:

OP=∝ + βGDP+β2IG+β3CPI+β4PCI+β5PCE+β6NE+ε;

Where;

OP is the adjusted inflation price of oil;

GDP is the gross domestic product;

IG is the industrial growth;

CPI is the consumer price index;

PCI is the per capita income;

PCE is the personal consumption expenditure;

NE is the Net Exports; and

ε is the error term .

On running a Pearson correlation test of the variables, the following was obtained:


Correlations

Nominal

Price

Inflation

Adjusted

Price

GDP Indus

Growth

consume

r price

index

per

capita

income

personal

consumptio

n

expenditure

net

exports

Nominal Price 1 .826** -.399** .764** .820** .779** .800** -.795**

Inflation

Adjusted Price

.826** 1 -.406** .435** .486** .460** .482** -.471**

GDP -.399** -.406** 1 -.570** -.549** -.604** -.580** .339*

Idus Growth .764** .435** -.570** 1 .974** .990** .972** -.871**

consumer price

index

.820** .486** -.549** .974** 1 .986** .998** -.856**

per capita

income

.779** .460** -.604** .990** .986** 1 .987** -.854**

personal

consumption

expenditure

.800** .482** -.580** .972** .998** .987** 1 -.833**

net exports -.795** -.471** .339* -.871** -.856** -.854** -.833** 1

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).

As can be observed, the inflation-adjusted prices are correlated to all the variables listed. The

correlations however are negative for GDP and net exports but positive for all the other


variables. From this, we can comfortably say that since none of the variables exhibits a

correlation higher than o.65, the multi-collinearity does not need to be performed for this data.

Next, we carry out a linear regression analysis of the variables using the model obtained above.

Model Summaryb

Model R R Square Adjusted R

Square

Std. Error of the Estimate

1 .619a .383 .307 21.35042

a. Predictors: (Constant), net exports, GDP, personal consumption expenditure,

IndusGrowth, per capita income, consumer price index

b. Dependent Variable: InflationAdjustedPrice

From the SPSS output on the summary, we can tell that the 6 predictors used explain on

38.3% of the impact of oil prices on the stock market. This means that the variables have

quite an impact on the oil prices though they may not be the only predictors.

The coefficients of regression were obtained as follows:

Coefficientsa


Model Unstandardized

Coefficients

Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig.

B Std. Error Beta

1

(Constant) 99.221 38.234 2.595 .012

GDP -.041 .016 -.448 -2.532 .015

IndusGrowth -1.180 .956 -1.147 -1.235 .223

consumer price index .904 .954 2.429 .948 .348

per capita income -.001 .004 -.502 -.361 .720

personal consumption

expenditure

-.855 2.194 -1.026 -.390 .698

net exports -.055 .032 -.521 -1.723 .091

a. Dependent Variable: Inflation AdjustedPrice


It can be observed that the coefficients of regression are negative with only one positive

for consumer price index. This means that the other variables have a decreasing impact on

the prices of oil as opposed to the consumer price index. Therefore, we can say that GDP,

industrial growth, per capita income, personal consumption expenditure and net exports

have negative significance but the consumer price index has a positive significance on oil

prices.

We can further determine the auto-correlation of the variables using the Durbin-Watson

statistic test. The following results were obtained:

Model Summaryb

Model R R Square Adjusted R

Square

Std. Error of

the Estimate

Durbin-

Watson

1 .619a .383 .307 21.35042 .368

a. Predictors: (Constant), net exports, GDP, personal consumption

expenditure, IndusGrowth, per capita income, consumer price index

b. Dependent Variable: InflationAdjustedPrice

Autocorrelation is used to determine the correlation error terms or residuals over

time and it violates the regression assumption that residuals are random and independent.

We can therefore use this test to tell how useful our regression model is by taking the

Durbin-Watson statistic, which is obtained as 0.368. Theoretically, the statistic ranges

from 0 to 4 and indicates the strength of the autocorrelation. If the value is between 0 and

2, there is positive auto correlation while if it is between 2 and 4, there is negative

autocorrelation.


Since our value stands at 0.368, then there is positive autocorrelation.

On testing for heteroskedasticity, the White’s test was used. From the diagram above,

Number of observations = 55 and R^2=0.383.

N * R^2 = 21.065

From the tables of Chi-square, we can average the chi-square as 11.514. Comparing the two

values with df=54 and 0.05 level of significance, we can clearly justify that there is very high

heteroskedasticity in our model.

This can also be observed from the scatterplot shown below which shows a non-uniform and

unequal distribution as the values increase in our model.


CONCLUSIONFrom the tests carried out, we can therefore say that most of the variables in our regression

model had negative coefficients, which include GDP, Industrial growth, per capita income,

personal consumption index and net exports. These therefore impact the oil prices negatively.

Only consumer price index had a positive coefficient hence showing that it had a positive impact

on oil prices. However, it is noteworthy that only GDP had a significance of 0.015 which is less

than 0.05 hence is the only significant predictor of oil prices in the U.S. according to the model.


All the other predictors have higher significances hence cannot be relied upon as significant

predictors.

It is also noteworthy that the variables used in the model only account for 38.3% of the

dependent variable, hence there are other variables, which strongly impact oil prices in the

market.

On multicollinearity, it was observed that none of the variables has a correlation higher or equal

to 0.65, hence we can say that no multicollinearity exists between the variables in the model.

On heteroskedasticity, the values obtained from the chi-square test were used to compare with

value of R^2 and the null hypothesis was rejected. We therefore, conclude that very high

heteroskedasticity exists between the variables. The scatter plot obtained also can be used

informally to explain the same finding

Bibliography

Anoruo, E., PhD. & Elike, U., PhD. 2009, "An Empirical Investigation into the Impact of High Oil Prices on Economic Growth of Oil-Importing African Countries", International Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 121-129,152.

Asteriou, D., Dimitras, A. & Lendewig, A. 2013, "The Influence of Oil Prices on Stock Market Returns: Empirical Evidence from Oil Exporting and Oil Importing Countries", International Journal of Business and Management, vol. 8, no. 18, pp. 101-120.


Billah Dar, A., Shah, A., Bhanja, N. & Samantaraya, A. 2014, "The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in Asian markets", South Asian Journal of Global Business Research, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 209.

Büyüksalvarci, A. & Abdioglu, H. 2010, "The Causal Relationship between Stock Prices and Macroeconomic Variables: A Case Study for Turkey", International Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 601-610.

Kapusuzoglu, A. 2011, "Relationships between Oil Price and Stock Market: An Empirical Analysis from Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE)", International Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 3, no. 6, pp. 99-106.

Appendixes

Historical oil prices

Annual Average

Domestic Crude Oil Prices (in $/Barrel)

Inflation Adjusted to November 2014

1946-Present


Year Nominal Price

Inflation Adjusted Price

1946 $1.63 $19.41

1947 $2.16 $22.81

1948 $2.77 $27.21

1949 $2.77 $27.48

1950 $2.77 $27.19

1951 $2.77 $25.20

1952 $2.77 $24.64

1953 $2.92 $25.72

1954 $2.99 $26.30

1955 $2.93 $25.80

1956 $2.94 $25.56

1957 $3.14 $26.38

1958 $3.00 $24.55

1959 $3.00 $24.30

1960 $2.91 $23.26

1961 $2.85 $22.52

1962 $2.85 $22.25

1963 $2.91 $22.46

1964 $3.00 $22.84

1965 $3.01 $22.55

1966 $3.10 $22.56

1967 $3.12 $22.09

1968 $3.18 $21.56

1969 $3.32 $21.38

1970 $3.39 $20.63

1971 $3.60 $21.00

1972 $3.60 $20.33


1973 $4.75 $25.06

1974 $9.35 $44.71

1975 $12.21 $53.55

1976 $13.10 $54.37

1977 $14.40 $56.08

1978 $14.95 $54.16

1979 $25.10 $80.90

1980 $37.42 $107.37

1981 $35.75 $92.98

1982 $31.83 $77.95

1983 $29.08 $68.97

1984 $28.75 $65.37

1985 $26.92 $59.10

1986 $14.44 $31.10

1987 $17.75 $36.89

1988 $14.87 $29.73

1989 $18.33 $34.91

1990 $23.19 $41.79

1991 $20.20 $35.03

1992 $19.25 $32.40

1993 $16.75 $27.39

1994 $15.66 $24.94

1995 $16.75 $25.96

1996 $20.46 $30.79

1997 $18.64 $27.43

1998 $11.91 $17.26

1999 $16.56 $23.42


2000 $27.39 $37.55

2001 $23.00 $30.69

2002 $22.81 $29.92

2003 $27.69 $35.55

2004 $37.66 $47.05

2005 $50.04 $60.45

2006 $58.30 $68.28

2007 $64.20 $72.99

2008 $91.48 $100.01

2009 $53.48 $58.76

2010 $71.21 $77.11

2011 $87.04 $91.39

2012 $86.46 $88.95

2013 $91.17 $92.41

2014 (Nov) $89.08 $89.08

Historical stock prices

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close

4/1/2015 2067.63

2125.92 2048.38 2106.85 3.45E+09 2106.85

3/2/2015 2105.23

2117.52 2039.69 2067.89 3.64E+09 2067.89

2/2/2015 1996.67

2119.59 1980.9 2104.5 3.81E+09 2104.5

1/2/2015 2058.9 2072.36 1988.12 1994.99 4.09E+09 1994.99

12/1/2014 2065.7 2093.55 1972.56 2058.9 3.79E+09 2058.9


8

11/3/2014 2018.21

2075.76 2001.01 2067.56 3.48E+09 2067.56

10/1/2014 1971.44

2018.19 1820.66 2018.05 4.26E+09 2018.05

9/2/2014 2004.07

2019.26 1964.04 1972.29 3.36E+09 1972.29

8/1/2014 1929.8 2005.04 1904.78 2003.37 2.88E+09 2003.37

7/1/2014 1962.29

1991.39 1930.67 1930.67 3.21E+09 1930.67

6/2/2014 1923.87

1968.17 1915.98 1960.23 3.16E+09 1960.23

5/1/2014 1884.39

1924.03 1859.79 1923.57 3.19E+09 1923.57

4/1/2014 1873.96

1897.28 1814.36 1883.95 3.59E+09 1883.95

3/3/2014 1857.68

1883.97 1834.44 1872.34 3.58E+09 1872.34

2/3/2014 1782.68

1867.92 1737.92 1859.45 3.88E+09 1859.45

1/2/2014 1845.86

1850.84 1770.45 1782.59 3.81E+09 1782.59

12/2/2013 1806.55

1849.44 1767.99 1848.36 3.2E+09 1848.36

11/1/2013 1758.7 1813.55 1746.2 1805.81 3.26E+09 1805.81

10/1/2013 1682.41

1775.22 1646.47 1756.54 3.5E+09 1756.54

9/3/2013 1635.95

1729.86 1633.41 1681.55 3.47E+09 1681.55

8/1/2013 1689.42

1709.67 1627.47 1632.97 3.07E+09 1632.97

7/1/2013 1609.78

1698.78 1604.57 1685.73 3.27E+09 1685.73

6/3/2013 1631.7 1654.19 1560.33 1606.28 4E+09 1606.28


1

5/1/2013 1597.55

1687.18 1581.28 1630.74 3.66E+09 1630.74

4/1/2013 1569.18

1597.57 1536.03 1597.57 3.67E+09 1597.57

3/1/2013 1514.68

1570.28 1501.48 1569.19 3.59E+09 1569.19

2/1/2013 1498.11

1530.94 1485.01 1514.68 3.85E+09 1514.68

1/2/2013 1426.19

1509.94 1426.19 1498.11 3.8E+09 1498.11

12/3/2012 1416.34

1448 1398.11 1426.19 3.48E+09 1426.19

11/1/2012 1412.2 1434.27 1343.35 1416.18 3.59E+09 1416.18

10/1/2012 1440.9 1470.96 1403.28 1412.16 3.59E+09 1412.16

9/4/2012 1406.54

1474.51 1396.56 1440.67 3.86E+09 1440.67

8/1/2012 1379.32

1426.68 1354.65 1406.58 3.18E+09 1406.58

7/2/2012 1362.33

1391.74 1325.41 1379.32 3.66E+09 1379.32

6/1/2012 1309.87

1363.46 1266.74 1362.16 4.1E+09 1362.16

5/1/2012 1397.86

1415.32 1291.98 1310.33 4.16E+09 1310.33

4/2/2012 1408.47

1422.38 1357.38 1397.91 3.92E+09 1397.91

3/1/2012 1365.9 1419.15 1340.03 1408.47 3.98E+09 1408.47

2/1/2012 1312.45

1378.04 1312.45 1365.68 4.14E+09 1365.68

1/3/2012 1258.86

1333.47 1258.86 1312.41 4.19E+09 1312.41

12/1/2011 1246.9 1269.37 1202.37 1257.6 3.67E+09 1257.6


1

11/1/2011 1251 1277.55 1158.66 1246.96 4.29E+09 1246.96

10/3/2011 1131.21

1292.66 1074.77 1253.3 4.87E+09 1253.3

9/1/2011 1219.12

1229.29 1114.22 1131.42 5.1E+09 1131.42

8/1/2011 1292.59

1307.38 1101.54 1218.89 4.94E+09 1218.89

7/1/2011 1320.64

1356.48 1282.86 1292.28 4.31E+09 1292.28

6/1/2011 1345.2 1345.2 1258.07 1320.64 4.11E+09 1320.64

5/2/2011 1365.21

1370.58 1311.8 1345.2 4.11E+09 1345.2

4/1/2011 1329.48

1364.56 1294.7 1363.61 4.04E+09 1363.61

3/1/2011 1328.64

1332.28 1249.05 1325.83 4.05E+09 1325.83

2/1/2011 1289.14

1344.07 1289.14 1327.22 3.18E+09 1327.22

1/3/2011 1257.62

1302.67 1257.62 1286.12 4.82E+09 1286.12

12/1/2010 1186.6 1262.6 1186.6 1257.64 3.76E+09 1257.64

11/1/2010 1185.71

1227.08 1173 1180.55 4.35E+09 1180.55

10/1/2010 1143.49

1196.14 1131.87 1183.26 4.43E+09 1183.26

9/1/2010 1049.72

1157.16 1049.72 1141.2 3.99E+09 1141.2

8/2/2010 1107.53

1129.24 1039.7 1049.33 4.08E+09 1049.33

7/1/2010 1031.1 1120.95 1010.91 1101.6 4.7E+09 1101.6

6/1/2010 1087.3 1131.23 1028.33 1030.71 5.24E+09 1030.71

5/3/2010 1188.5 1205.13 1040.78 1089.41 6.63E+09 1089.41


8

4/1/2010 1171.23

1219.8 1170.69 1186.69 5.85E+09 1186.69

3/1/2010 1105.36

1180.69 1105.36 1169.43 4.7E+09 1169.43

2/1/2010 1073.89

1112.42 1044.5 1104.49 4.66E+09 1104.49

1/4/2010 1116.56

1150.45 1071.59 1073.87 5.07E+09 1073.87

12/1/2009 1098.89

1130.38 1085.89 1115.1 4.16E+09 1115.1

11/2/2009 1036.18

1113.69 1029.38 1095.63 4.44E+09 1095.63

10/1/2009 1054.91

1101.36 1019.95 1036.19 5.45E+09 1036.19

9/1/2009 1019.52

1080.15 991.97 1057.08 5.63E+09 1057.08

8/3/2009 990.22 1039.47 978.51 1020.62 5.76E+09 1020.62

7/1/2009 920.82 996.68 869.32 987.48 5.08E+09 987.48

6/1/2009 923.26 956.23 888.86 919.32 5.33E+09 919.32

5/1/2009 872.74 930.17 866.1 919.14 6.88E+09 919.14

4/1/2009 793.59 888.7 783.32 872.81 6.94E+09 872.81

3/2/2009 729.57 832.98 666.79 797.87 7.63E+09 797.87

2/2/2009 823.09 875.01 734.52 735.09 7.02E+09 735.09

1/2/2009 902.99 943.85 804.3 825.88 5.87E+09 825.88

12/1/2008 888.61 918.85 815.69 903.25 5.32E+09 903.25

11/3/2008 968.67 1007.51 741.02 896.24 6.23E+09 896.24

10/1/2008 1164.17

1167.03 839.8 968.75 7.23E+09 968.75

9/2/2008 1287.83

1303.04 1106.42 1166.36 6.9E+09 1166.36

8/1/2008 1269.4 1313.15 1247.45 1282.83 4.26E+09 1282.83


2

7/1/2008 1276.69

1292.17 1200.44 1267.38 5.92E+09 1267.38

6/2/2008 1399.62

1404.05 1272 1280 4.84E+09 1280

5/1/2008 1385.97

1440.24 1373.07 1400.38 4.04E+09 1400.38

4/1/2008 1326.41

1404.57 1324.35 1385.59 4.11E+09 1385.59

3/3/2008 1330.45

1359.68 1256.98 1322.7 4.87E+09 1322.7

2/1/2008 1378.6 1396.02 1316.75 1330.63 4.15E+09 1330.63

1/2/2008 1467.97

1471.77 1270.05 1378.55 4.93E+09 1378.55

12/3/2007 1479.63

1523.57 1435.65 1468.36 3.36E+09 1468.36

11/1/2007 1545.79

1545.79 1406.1 1481.14 4.32E+09 1481.14

10/1/2007 1527.29

1576.09 1489.56 1549.38 3.48E+09 1549.38

9/4/2007 1473.96

1538.74 1439.29 1526.75 3.2E+09 1526.75

8/1/2007 1455.18

1503.89 1370.6 1473.99 4.09E+09 1473.99

7/2/2007 1504.66

1555.9 1454.25 1455.27 3.56E+09 1455.27

6/1/2007 1530.62

1540.56 1484.18 1503.35 3.26E+09 1503.35

5/1/2007 1482.37

1535.56 1476.7 1530.62 3.1E+09 1530.62

4/2/2007 1420.83

1498.02 1416.37 1482.37 3.01E+09 1482.37

3/1/2007 1406.8 1438.89 1363.98 1420.86 3.21E+09 1420.86

2/1/2007 1437.9 1461.57 1389.42 1406.82 2.94E+09 1406.82


1/3/2007 1418.03

1441.61 1403.97 1438.24 2.98E+09 1438.24

12/1/2006 1400.63

1431.81 1385.93 1418.3 2.46E+09 1418.3

11/1/2006 1377.76

1407.89 1360.98 1400.63 2.83E+09 1400.63

10/2/2006 1335.82

1389.45 1327.1 1377.94 2.71E+09 1377.94

9/1/2006 1303.8 1340.28 1290.93 1335.85 2.56E+09 1335.85

8/1/2006 1278.53

1306.74 1261.3 1303.82 2.28E+09 1303.82

7/3/2006 1270.06

1280.42 1224.54 1276.66 2.44E+09 1276.66

6/1/2006 1270.05

1290.68 1219.29 1270.2 2.63E+09 1270.2

5/1/2006 1310.61

1326.7 1245.34 1270.09 2.59E+09 1270.09

4/3/2006 1302.88

1318.16 1280.74 1310.61 2.41E+09 1310.61

3/1/2006 1280.66

1310.88 1268.42 1294.87 2.31E+09 1294.87

2/1/2006 1280.08

1297.57 1253.61 1280.66 2.38E+09 1280.66

1/3/2006 1248.29

1294.9 1245.74 1280.08 2.6E+09 1280.08

12/1/2005 1249.48

1275.8 1246.59 1248.29 2.06E+09 1248.29

11/1/2005 1207.01

1270.64 1201.07 1249.48 2.26E+09 1249.48

10/3/2005 1228.81

1233.34 1168.2 1207.01 2.49E+09 1207.01

9/1/2005 1220.3 1243.13 1205.35 1228.81 2.23E+09 1228.81


3

8/1/2005 1234.18

1245.86 1201.07 1220.33 1.93E+09 1220.33

7/1/2005 1191.33

1245.15 1183.55 1234.18 1.96E+09 1234.18

6/1/2005 1191.5 1219.59 1188.3 1191.33 1.93E+09 1191.33

5/2/2005 1156.85

1199.56 1146.18 1191.5 1.96E+09 1191.5

4/1/2005 1180.59

1191.88 1136.15 1156.85 2.18E+09 1156.85

3/1/2005 1203.6 1229.11 1163.69 1180.59 1.87E+09 1180.59

2/1/2005 1181.27

1212.44 1180.95 1203.6 1.64E+09 1203.6

1/3/2005 1211.92

1217.8 1163.75 1181.27 1.66E+09 1181.27

12/1/2004 1173.78

1217.33 1173.78 1211.92 1.45E+09 1211.92

11/1/2004 1130.2 1188.46 1127.6 1173.82 1.52E+09 1173.82

10/1/2004 1114.58

1142.05 1090.29 1130.2 1.57E+09 1130.2

9/1/2004 1104.24

1131.54 1099.18 1114.58 1.36E+09 1114.58

8/2/2004 1101.72

1109.68 1060.72 1104.24 1.26E+09 1104.24

7/1/2004 1140.84

1140.84 1078.78 1101.72 1.46E+09 1101.72

6/1/2004 1120.68

1146.34 1113.32 1140.84 1.38E+09 1140.84

5/3/2004 1107.3 1127.74 1076.32 1120.68 1.52E+09 1120.68

4/1/2004 1126.21

1150.57 1107.23 1107.3 1.58E+09 1107.3

3/1/2004 1144.94

1163.23 1087.16 1126.21 1.53E+09 1126.21


2/2/2004 1131.13

1158.98 1124.44 1144.94 1.55E+09 1144.94

1/2/2004 1111.92

1155.38 1105.08 1131.13 1.72E+09 1131.13

12/1/2003 1058.2 1112.56 1053.41 1111.92 1.31E+09 1111.92

11/3/2003 1050.71

1063.65 1031.2 1058.2 1.31E+09 1058.2

10/1/2003 995.97 1053.79 995.97 1050.71 1.47E+09 1050.71

9/2/2003 1008.01

1040.29 990.36 995.97 1.5E+09 995.97

8/1/2003 990.31 1011.01 960.84 1008.01 1.23E+09 1008.01

7/1/2003 974.5 1015.41 962.1 990.31 1.51E+09 990.31

6/2/2003 963.59 1015.33 963.59 974.5 1.56E+09 974.5

5/1/2003 916.92 965.38 902.83 963.59 1.55E+09 963.59

4/1/2003 848.18 924.24 847.85 916.92 1.5E+09 916.92

3/3/2003 841.15 895.9 788.9 848.18 1.5E+09 848.18

2/3/2003 855.7 864.64 806.29 841.15 1.4E+09 841.15

1/2/2003 879.82 935.05 840.34 855.7 1.54E+09 855.7

12/2/2002 936.31 954.28 869.45 879.82 1.29E+09 879.82

11/1/2002 885.76 941.82 872.05 936.31 1.49E+09 936.31

10/1/2002 815.28 907.44 768.63 885.76 1.72E+09 885.76

9/3/2002 916.07 924.02 800.2 815.28 1.47E+09 815.28

8/1/2002 911.62 965 833.44 916.07 1.37E+09 916.07

7/1/2002 989.82 994.46 775.68 911.62 2.01E+09 911.62

6/3/2002 1067.14

1070.74 952.92 989.82 1.6E+09 989.82

5/1/2002 1076.92

1106.59 1048.96 1067.14 1.28E+09 1067.14

4/1/2002 1147.39

1147.84 1063.46 1076.92 1.37E+09 1076.92

3/1/2002 1106.7 1173.94 1106.73 1147.39 1.39E+09 1147.39


3

2/1/2002 1130.2 1130.2 1074.36 1106.73 1.44E+09 1106.73

1/2/2002 1148.08

1176.97 1081.66 1130.2 1.49E+09 1130.2

12/3/2001 1139.45

1173.62 1114.53 1148.08 1.3E+09 1148.08

11/1/2001 1059.78

1163.38 1054.31 1139.45 1.32E+09 1139.45

10/1/2001 1040.94

1110.61 1026.76 1059.78 1.36E+09 1059.78

9/4/2001 1133.58

1155.4 944.75 1040.94 1.78E+09 1040.94

8/1/2001 1211.23

1226.27 1124.87 1133.58 1.06E+09 1133.58

7/2/2001 1224.42

1239.78 1165.54 1211.23 1.19E+09 1211.23

6/1/2001 1255.82

1286.62 1203.03 1224.38 1.27E+09 1224.38

5/1/2001 1249.46

1315.93 1232 1255.82 1.17E+09 1255.82

4/2/2001 1160.33

1269.3 1091.99 1249.46 1.33E+09 1249.46

3/1/2001 1239.94

1267.42 1081.19 1160.33 1.32E+09 1160.33

2/1/2001 1366.01

1376.38 1215.44 1239.94 1.2E+09 1239.94

1/2/2001 1320.28

1383.37 1274.62 1366.01 1.39E+09 1366.01

12/1/2000 1314.95

1389.05 1254.07 1320.28 1.23E+09 1320.28

11/1/2000 1429.4 1438.46 1294.9 1314.95 1.03E+09 1314.95

10/2/2000 1436.52

1454.82 1305.79 1429.4 1.24E+09 1429.4

9/1/2000 1517.6 1530.09 1419.44 1436.51 1.1E+09 1436.51


8

8/1/2000 1430.83

1525.21 1425.43 1517.68 9.31E+08 1517.68

7/3/2000 1454.6 1517.32 1413.89 1430.83 1E+09 1430.83

6/1/2000 1420.6 1488.93 1420.6 1454.6 1.05E+09 1454.6

5/1/2000 1452.43

1481.51 1361.09 1420.6 9.48E+08 1420.6

4/3/2000 1498.58

1527.19 1339.4 1452.43 1.11E+09 1452.43

3/1/2000 1366.42

1552.87 1346.62 1498.58 1.19E+09 1498.58

2/1/2000 1394.46

1444.55 1325.07 1366.42 1.11E+09 1366.42

1/3/2000 1469.25

1478 1350.14 1394.46 1.12E+09 1394.46

12/1/1999 1388.91

1473.1 1387.38 1469.25 9.1E+08 1469.25

11/1/1999 1362.93

1425.31 1346.41 1388.91 9.21E+08 1388.91

10/1/1999 1282.71

1373.17 1233.7 1362.93 9.5E+08 1362.93

9/1/1999 1320.41

1361.39 1256.26 1282.71 8.31E+08 1282.71

8/2/1999 1328.72

1382.84 1267.73 1320.41 7.58E+08 1320.41

7/1/1999 1372.71

1420.33 1328.49 1328.72 7.65E+08 1328.72

6/1/1999 1301.84

1372.93 1277.47 1372.71 7.82E+08 1372.71

5/3/1999 1335.18

1375.98 1277.31 1301.84 8.27E+08 1301.84

4/1/1999 1286.37

1371.56 1282.56 1335.18 9.27E+08 1335.18

3/1/1999 1238.3 1323.82 1216.03 1286.37 8.23E+08 1286.37


3

2/1/1999 1279.64

1283.84 1211.89 1238.33 8.07E+08 1238.33

1/4/1999 1229.23

1280.37 1205.46 1279.64 9.02E+08 1279.64

5-ECON939 Project

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