Mobile Broadband in the Americas www.4gamericas.org Mobile World Congress March 2015
Jan 27, 2016
Mobile Broadband in the Americas
www.4gamericas.org
Mobile World Congress March 2015
www.4gamericas.org
4G Americas Board of Governors
MISSION: 4G Americas will advocate for and foster the advancement and full capabilities of LTE mobile broadband technologies, including LTE-Advanced and beyond to 5G, throughout the ecosystem’s networks, services, applications and wirelessly connected devices in the Americas.
www.4gamericas.org
Mobile Market Update
www.4gamericas.org
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19
Milli
ons
CDMA
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Global Technology Trends 2010-2019
LTE
5.3 Billion Subscriptions
8.5 Billion Subscriptions
www.4gamericas.org
Global Mobile Broadband Deployments
367 Networks 121 Countries
49 Networks 31 Countries
Nearly 600 networks covering 60 % of the world’s population
www.4gamericas.org
Americas Region Market Update
US/Canada Latin America
Caribbean
4 LTE-Advanced Commercial
Networks
58 LTE Commercial
Networks in 21 countries
67 LTE Commercial
Networks
- 50
100 150
200 250 300 350 400 450
Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14
179 M 186 M 172 M 139 M
110 M
70 M 53 M
33 M
25 M
15 M
77 M 106 M
123 M
119 M
117 M
0 7 M 40 M
100 M 165 M
Millio
ns of
Sub
scrip
tions
LTE
HSPA
GSM
CDMA
Others
Data Source: December 2014 Estimates www.4gamericas.org
USA / Canada Mobile Subscriptions - 2010-2014
336 M 358 M 371 M 383 M 407 M
Others = Analog, TDMA, iDEN
Data Source: December 2014 Estimates www.4gamericas.org
USA / Canada Mobile Market Shares - 2014
407 Million Subscriptions
GSM 15 M 4%
LTE -- 165 M -- 40%
HSPA, HSPA+ 117 M - 29%
CDMA 110 M - 27%
0
100
200
300
400
500
Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19
102 M 91 M 79 M 69 M 59 M
104 M 98 M
92 M 86 M 81 M
169 M 199 M
230 M 259 M
286 M
Milli
ons o
f Sub
scrip
tions
LTEHSPAGSMCDMA
Data Source: December 2014 Estimates www.4gamericas.org
USA / Canada Mobile Technology Forecast
2015 - 2019
385 M 397 M 408 M 420 M 431 M
www.4gamericas.org
Challenge & Opportunity for the Industry: Mobile Data Demand
2.5 EB 4.2 EB
6.8 EB
10.7 EB
16.1 EB
24.3 EB
0
6
12
18
24
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Exabytes per Month
57% CAGR 2014-2019
Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, February 2015
www.4gamericas.org
LTE-Advanced
www.4gamericas.org
SON
Flexibility Capacity & Efficiency Innovation
Evolving Carrier Aggregation
Further Enhanced HetNets
More advanced antenna features and 256 QAM
Higher capacity for M2M and Smartphone signaling
Device Interference Cancellation
Coordinated Multipoint
LTE Broadcast
LTE Direct D2D
Higher bands and new licensing
models (Authorized Shared
Access)
LTE-Advanced
www.4gamericas.org
LTE-Advanced
LTE-Advanced Global Population Coverage December 2012 to December 2014
Source: Feb 18, 2015
North America
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
Latin America 2012 2013 2014
Dec 2014 = 100 million PoPs Dec 2018 = 1 Billion Covered
Commercial LTE-Advanced
Networks Dec 2014
49
www.4gamericas.org
Then there was……….5G…….2020 & Beyond
GSM
85 % 95 %
60 %
90 %
HSPA, HSPA+
20 %
70 %
2013 2013 2013 2020 2020 2020
World Population Coverage by Technology
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, November 2014
www.4gamericas.org
The Path to 5G
www.4gamericas.org
Steps Towards 5G
Timeframe 2000-2005
2005- 2010
2010- 2015
2015- 2020
2020-2025
3G Deployment and ongoing
evolution 3GPP
Mainstream adoption and
continuity evolution
(3GPP Rel8-9)
Maturity Declining Usage?
4G Research (OFDM, MMO)
Initial standards (3GPP Rel8-9)
Deployment and ongoing
evolution (3GPP Rel10-
12)
Mainstream adoption and
continuity evolution
(3GPP Rel13-??)
Maturity
5G Research Initial standards
around 2020 (3GPP Rel 16?)
Deployment and ongoing
evolution
ITU-R Recommendations
IMT-2000 IMT-2000 updates (inclusion of HSPA,
LTE and WiMAX)
IMT-2000 updates IMT-
Advanced
IMT-Advanced updates
IMT-2020
Source: Alcatel-Lucent, 2015
www.4gamericas.org
Plan, Timeline, Process & Deliverables for IMT-2020
Source: ITU Radiocommunications Bureau, 2015
2020 2018-2019 2017 2016-2017
WP5D IMT-2020 Workshop on performance
requirements and evaluation criteria and methodology
for candidate technologies
Definition of performance
requirements, evaluation
criteria and methodology
for the assessment of new IMT radio
interface
Evaluation by independent
external groups and
definition of new radio interface
Draft new ITU-R Recommendations
with detailed specifications for
the new radio interfaces
submitted for approval within
ITU-R
2016-2017 2017 2018-2019 2020
www.4gamericas.org
Global M2M connections – Consumer Electronics sector by application 2013-2023
Source: Machina Research 2014
Tracking Applications Network equipment Household Information Devices Personal Multimedia White goods Audio visual displays Audio visual sources
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Global Connections (Billions)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023