4G readiness index, fitce workshop 2010

4G readiness index 2008

Elias Aravantinos and M. Hosein Fallah, PhD

Howe School of Technology Management

Stevens Institute of Technology

The Forum for European ICT Professionals (Fitce),

July 2010, Chania, Crete

FITCE 2010

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Agenda

Introduction

4G description

Current trends and issues

Motivation and model

4G-readiness

Model description

Results and validation

Conclusions and future work

Introduction

About this study, and ExelixisNet

Aims to create a general technology management model

assessing new technology path among different markets

Focuses on explaining 4G readiness, using 3.5G as a starting

point

ExelixisNet was founded in NY, in 2007

Telecom and new media consulting agency

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4G definition

There is no formal definition for 4G. It is a term used to

describe the next step in wireless communications.

The defined objectives for 4G include:

Fully integrated IP solution

“Anytime, Anywhere”

Seamless connectivity- wireless and wireline

Global access and interconnection

interoperability

Data rates of at least 100Mbps

Spectrally efficient system

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4G evolution

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Investors and vendors

4G Key Players

2011 will be the year when LTE goes live Verizon in the United

States and DoCoMo in Japan will begin wide-scale roll-outs by

the end of 2010

T-Mobile and AT&T drive 4G via HSPA+ path

TeliaSonera has nationwide 4G licenses in Norway, Sweden,

Finland and Denmark. During 2010, the 4G network roll out

continues in Sweden's 25 largest cities and vacation areas and

Norway's four largest cities.

800 MHz band, Vodafone Germany has indicated it will launch

LTE services targeted at rural areas within the next 12 months.

Net4Mobility in Sweden will use Huawei’s LTE base stations

Spring 2010, Australia turns up 4G with Huawei

4G Base Station

Teliasonera 4G LTE:

» Huawei and Nokia-Siemens

» Ericsson: Norway and Sweden

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Example of investment vs. speed

GERMAN MARKET

Vodafone paid €1.42 billion for a

total of 12 spectrum blocks,

Telefonica O2 paid €1.38 billion

for 11 blocks,

Deutsche Telekom spent €1.3

billion for 10 blocks

E-Plus paid €283.6 million for 8

blocks.

Speeds:

5 Mbps in rural locations, and up to

70 Mbps in citiesEA & MHF7/12/2010 8

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Current Issues and research questions

Issues:

Several forecasts for the evolution of the 4G on a different time

window

The 3G in most cases has not paid off

WiMAX versus LTE debate seems to calm off

Different strategies and investments

Hard to evaluate 4G markets yet, slow unfold

Research Questions:

Which countries are closer to 4G adoption?

Since the markets are still shaping up, how can we forecast

market potentials from the operators perspective?

The 4G adoption is an outcome of disruptive innovations

rather than a natural path of technology evolution

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Approach to achieve 4G readiness

Motivation/Ability Framework:

Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to

Predict Industry Change Clayton M. Christensen, Scott D.

Anthony, Erik A. Roth HBS Press 2004

E-readiness:

What is the stage of readiness globally

“E-readiness rankings of 2008”, “The Economist Intelligence

Unit 2008” report

Network readiness

NRI report of 2008, World Economic Forum

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Motivation/Ability Framework

Looking for a Target

Accessing resources

(spectrum) or reaching

potential consumers

The Hotbed

Teeming for innovation

The Dilemma

No readily available

avenues to create profitable

businesses

Looking for the Money

Firms struggle to find ways to

monetize an opportunity

Mo

tivatio

n

High

Low

Ability

HighLow

Motivation: the 4G including the digital convergence is the pot of gold and

the new opportunity waiting for the winners, the first movers

Ability: obtain the resources needed to develop 4G and craft them into

business models for new products and services

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Motivation/Ability Framework ( cont.)

Important non-market factors for 4G based on the

framework:

Industry standards

Cultural norms

State of technological development

Government regulation

Country’s intellectual property infrastructure

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E-readiness

E-readiness is a measure of the quality of a country’s

information and communications technology (ICT)

infrastructure and the ability of its consumers, businesses

and governments to use ICT to their benefit.

The measure of a country’s ability to leverage digital

channels for communication, commerce and government in

order to further economic and social development

Similar definition about the Network Readiness Index

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Advancing the E-readiness into 4G study

Taking as input countries with the most efficient digital users,

assuming these countries are highly innovative

Examining E-readiness criteria from a mobile wireless

perspective

Assume the 4G evolution as a digital subcategory

developing similar categories and criteria

Apply the model to the mobile wireless and forecast the

evolution based on the present

Strategic results from different countries

Include the non-market factors

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Our study

“4G-Readiness” is a phrase we have

coined as analogous to e- readiness

We will focus on highly ranked

countries

The “state of play” of a country’s

mobile wireless status and the ability

of its consumers, businesses and

governments to use in the future the

mobile wireless to their benefit

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Weighting categories

Category

Weight

Connectivity

and

technology

infrastructur

e

Business

environm

ent

Social and

cultural

environme

nt

Legal

environment

Consumer

and

business

trend

Governmen

t policy and

vision

Criteria 1. mobile

phone

penetration

2. current

industry

standards

Overall

political

environme

nt;

macroeco

nomic

environme

nt; market

opportunit

ies; policy

toward

private

enterprise;

foreign

investmen

t policy;

foreign

trade and

exchange

regimes;

tax

regime;

financing;

the labour

market.

Level of

education

and literacy;

level of

Internet

literacy;

degree of

entrepreneur

ship;

technical

skills of

workforce;

degree of

innovation.

spectrum laws

efficiency,

Subscribers

served per

MHz of

Spectrum

1.

Consumer

spending on

communicat

ions

services;

2.

availability

of mobile

wireless

services for

citizens and

businesses

1. Telecom

investing

per GDP

2. Total ICT

national

spending

rate

Percentage 20% 20% 15% 10% 20% 15%

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Strategic countries for 4G adoption

Select the top 20 from the e-readiness list based on the

highest ranking score

The list of the 20 countries consist of: USA, Hong Kong,

Sweden, Australia, Denmark, Netherlands, UK, Germany,

Japan, Switzerland, Austria, Finland, South Korea, New

Zealand, Bermuda, Taiwan, Belgium, Canada, Norway,

Singapore

China will be added due to the China Mobile 4G activity

Other strategic countries: India, Russia, Brazil due to the

facts:

Almost represent half of the world’s population

Showing record in wireless adoption the last few years

4G readiness for 20 countries

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Input – Output / Results for 2008

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Network readiness

Greece #64

Spain #32

Italy #33

E-readiness

Greece #28

Italy #24, Spain #25

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Expected results

Countries with higher mobile wireless penetration level to

score higher than the e-readiness table The question is are

there anomalies? Needs to be substantiated by further

study!

Countries that have more 4G operators and trials to be

placed higher in the list

The higher the country in the list the more investments and

trials should attract in the future and closer to 4G adoption

We will use the current ranking, then suggest how the

ranking changes over time and what question we can help

answer

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Conclusions

This paper defines the 4G criteria and 4G Technology

Evolution based on current state of knowledge.

Our continued research and the expected results will

shed light into the current operators strategies and

market structuring at a national level

Will reveal the weak countries that might be strong in

the digital part but weak in the mobile wireless area and

the reasons

Identify strong countries that will shape the 4G markets

faster and accumulate more capital investments

LTE capable handsets and chipsets

4G Study sampling regions

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Thank You – Questions?

Elias Aravantinos

ICT Consultant, ExelixisNet

www.exelixisnet.com

[email protected]

Twitter: eliasara, exelixisnet