4742 Bouman Sirovica - American Public Works Lapus River Basin in May 1970 Stations Razore and Lapusel Comparison Lapusel Station 1970 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 · 2009-9-13

Presentation Outline

• Introductory Information

• Case Studies– Romania – DESWAT

– Romania – INTEROPERATE

– The Kingdom of Morocco – Weather Radar Network Feasibility Studies

– Philippines – Meteorological and Hydrological Telecommunications Upgrade

• Closing Remarks

Results of Climate Change

• Flood zones change

• Flooding and droughts become less predictable

• Design standards are no longer adequate

• We loose the understanding of weather and storm water related dynamics

Developing Countries

• Ability to accurately predict weather does not always exist

• The US Trade & Development Agency (TDA) is funding Feasibility Studies to improve weather related facilities

• B&N managed four weather related international projects – two in Romania, Morocco, and the Philippines.

USTDA

• Mission: Advance economic development in developing and middle income countries

• Fund projects that support development of modern infrastructure and fair trade

• Stimulate American business

Weather Related Activities

• Forecasting – 6 hours to 10 days

• Now Casting – 0 to 6 hours

• Real-time

Forecasting

• Upper air soundings

• Satellite

• Computer models

Now Casting

• Doppler Radar – Useful for observation of precipitation (measures freq. differences of microwave signals)

– Clouds

– Rain

– Hail

– Snow

Real Time Data

• Precipitation

• Temperature

• Humidity

• Barometric pressure

• Wind speed & direction

• Stream flow

• Soil moisture

Weather Related Data Provides

• Advanced warning of dangerous storm events

• Flood and droughts become more predictable

• Used to establish design standards

• Land use planning

• Design of flood control structures

Title Goes Here

• Bullets Go Here– And Here

Case Study: Romania DESWAT

Case Study: Romania Destructive Waters (DESWAT) Feasibility Study

Evaluation, Selection and Testing Process for Hydrologic and Hydraulic Flood Models for Use in Romania

Romania

• Eight models reviewed in US workshops

• Four models selected for consideration

• Vflo (Vieux Associates)

• RiverTrak (Riverside Technologies)

• River Forecast System (USNWS)

• Corps Water Management System (USCOE)

Model Review Process

Mapping Needs

• For Hydrologic modeling – 1:50,000

• For Hydraulic modeling – 1:10,000

• New mapping could be used for many purposes in addition to flood modeling

• Satellite mapping may be considered

Recommended Model Group

• Vflo for small basins – to 200 KM2

• RiverTrak for larger basins – 200-5,000 KM2

• RFS model – basins over 5,000 KM2

• Vidra model- basins over 500 KM2, as an interim approach, in parallel with Vflo and RiverTrak models

Lapus Basin Pilot Demonstration

• Application of Vflo and Vidra models

• Vflo training in January 2003

• Attended by 19 staff trainees

• Application included May 1970 storm

• Examples of input and resulting inundation maps

Hourly Gauge Distribution

Rainfall Hyetograph at Baia Mare and Lezer Gauges May 1970

Storm Total Rainfall

Resulting Map of Storm Total Accumulations May 1970

Discharge at Lapusel Gauge Station

Vflo: Discharge at Lapusel Gage May 1970

Flood Inundation Lapus Basin

Modeled Flood Inundation in the Lapus Basin May 1970 Event

Vidra Application To Lapus Basin

• Application of May 1970 storm

• Examples of hydrographs and resulting inundation maps

Flood Wave Hydrographs

12.05. 9.00h-16.05.1970 2.00h

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Lapus R.-Lapusel St.Lapus R.-Razoare St.Cavnic R.-Copalnic St.Sasar R.-BaiaMare St.Suciu R.-Suciu St

Vidra: Flood Wave Hydrographs Recorded at the Gauging Stations from the Lapus River Basinin May 1970

Stations Razore and Lapusel

Comparison Lapusel Station 1970

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Comparison Razoare Station 1970

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Computed and Recorded Hydrographs at the Razore and Lapusel Stations in May 1970

Modeled Flood Inundation

Modeled Flood Induation in the Lapus Basin May 1970 (Bozanta Mare & Bozanta Mica)

Modeled Flood Inundation

Modeled Flood Inundation in the Lapus Basin May 1970 (Sacalaseni Area)

Feasibility Study Conclusions

• Newer data available from radar makes faster modeling feasible

• Available models can make use of this data to rapidly model flood conditions and speed the warning and preparation process

• The Vflo, RiverTrak and NWS models are well suited to this upgrade

• The Vidra model should be continued as an interim approach on larger basins

Project Update

• Seven of the 11 basins are operational

• Lockheed Martin won the implementation

• $64 million of US equipment and services export

• A USTDA success story

Title Goes Here

• Bullets Go Here– And Here

Case Study:Romania INTEROPERATE

Case Study: Romania

Case Study: Romania Integrated Climatology, Agro-meteorological, Air Pollution Forecast and Warning, Computation and Training Center –

(INTEROPERATE) Feasibility Study

• Assess existing integrated system for meteorological surveillance, forecast, and alert system in Romania

• Analyze proposed enhancements to the forecast and alert systems

Primary Project Goals

• General improvement of the forecasts, especially for severe weather events

• More accurate characterization of weather events (both in lead time and magnitude)

Radar national coverage in Romania

Primary Project Goals

• Current Capabilities

• Computation Requirements

• Data Storage Requirements

• Operational Requirements

Needs Assessment

• Sun E4500 w/8 processors

• Generic Linux cluster of 28 processors

• 1.2 Terrabytes online

• Offline storage is varied

• Need hierarchical storage management

system

Current Capabilities

MM5, WRF, ALADIN, LM, AROME – All require a system with high memory bandwidth between processor and main memory

Computation Requirements

• Computing data and imaging data must be stored (operational and archival)

• Desire 30 days of operational data

• Archival data may be permanent

Data Storage Requirements

Operational Requirements

• Redundancy and fault tolerance are critical elements of the system requirements

• During periods of critical threats or system faults, research applications will be interruptible in favor of operations

RNMA Existing Data Storage Pools

INTEROPERATE

Typical Compute Node Configurations

Note:   A system achieving equivalent performance with a configuration different from the above would be equallysatisfactory

INTEROPERATE

Typical Service Node Configurations

Note:  A system achieving equivalent performance with a configuration different from the above would be equallysatisfactory

INTEROPERATE

• Infuse developing science and technology into existing operations

• Maintain level of expertise current with national and international research

• Enhance and stimulate staff learning

• Assure effective use of existing and new equipment

Training Needs Assessment

• Supercomputer – for operators, administration, users and maintenance

• Databases – for database and OS administrators, users and operators

IT Training Program Categories

• Climate Variability

• Convective Weather

• Emergency Management

• Hydrology/Flooding

• Mesoscale Meteorology*

• NWP (Modeling)

• Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF)

• Radar Meteorology and Nowcasting*

• Satellite Meteorology*

• Winter Weather

• Agro-Meteorology Modeling*

• Air Pollution Meteorology*

Meteorology Training ProgramCategories

Note - * indicates existing training program

Planned processes and products (very high resolution models – 2 to 3 km grids)• AROME – Mesoscale model, non-hydrostatic with 2.5 – 3

km grid using 300 to 600 x the comp ability of ALADIN now

• COSMO Project (Local Model - LM) - Tested at 2.8 & 7 km grid on generic LINUX cluster

• WRF – A non-hydrostatic mesoscale US model which is an improvement on the MM5 model of PSU

INTEROPERATE

Project Update

• Computer building constructed

• International tender (RFP) on hold for super computer pending Romanian government funding

Title Goes Here

• Bullets Go Here– And Here

Case Study:Morocco

Weather Radar Network Feasibility Study

• Mission: Establish an effective national system for forecasting environmental crises to guarantee security and stability

• Goal: Improve quality of life and promote economic development

General Statistics

• Moroccan GNP – $85.2 billion• Population – 34,436,000• GNP per capita – $2,474• Area – 446,300 Sq. Km • Typical Rainfall – varies 50 to 800 mm

per year• Average Temperature – 17 to 19 C • Temperature range – -7 to 25 C

Normal Annual Rainfall

Mohammadia 2002

Oujda 2008

Nador 2008

Damage Caused by Flooding

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Estimated Losses Since the Mid 1990s

Loss Description USD Percent of Total

Human Loss 20,168,000  12.0%

Peopled touched 631,000  0.4%

Employment  1,479,000  0.9%

Industrial 66,726,000  39.8%

Agricultural 38,566,000  23.0%

Housing 22,648,000  13.5%

Public/Private property 15,641,000  9.3%

Road infrastructure 1,713,000  1.0%

Total 167,572,000  100.0%

Existing Radar Coverage Larache

FesCasablanca

Khouribga

Bengrir

Agadir

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Deficiencies of Existing Radar Sites

• Excessive overlap between radars at Casablanca, Khouribga

• Radars at Fez and Agadir have poor coverage due to interferences of the Atlas Mountains

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Radar Coverage

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Radar Site Analysis

Radar Coverage

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Radar Citing Criteria

1. Improve public safety

2. Decrease economic loss to urban industry and agriculture

3. Improve forecasts

4. Improve aviation safety

5. Aide specific projects (hail suppression and snow enhancement)

Conclusions for Morocco

• Areas between coast lines and the Atlas mountains are covered well by radar

• Existing radar systems have black spots that limit forecasting – impact weather and flood forecasting capabilities

• No radar sites east of the Atlas Mountains

• New radar locations are being recommended

Title Goes Here

• Bullets Go Here– And Here

Case Study:Philippines

Case Study – Philippines

Meteorological and Hydrological

Telecommunications Upgrade

General Stats of the Philippines

• Population – 88 million

• Area – 298,170 Sq. Km (slightly larger than (AZ)

• GNP – $108 billion

• GNP per capita – $1,300

• Typical Rainfall – 965 to 4,064 mm

• Average Temperature Range – 25 to 29 C

Project Objectives

• Recommend a reliable and redundant telecommunications system

• Implementation plan to transmit data to the main and regional centers

The Philippines

Satellite Images

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Rainfall Data

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Photos of Damages

Existing and Proposed Radars

proposed new repeater

existing repeater

Aparri Radar

Tuguegarao

PAGASAScience Garden

San Rafael

Cabanatuan

TarlacMt. Ampucao

Cauayan

Ilagan

PAGASA‐DIC

Baguio Radar

Apa‐Tug

Yan‐Cau

YanbongCarmen Rosales

Magat

Gapan

North Backbone

South Backbone

Science Garden

Tagaytay

Malasag

Danao

Tugas

Bulan Malabog

Gapas

Lucban

Cagayan de Oro

Atimonan

Sipocot

Dan-MalTac-Dan-Gui

Guiuan RadarMactan Radar

Pili

Legaspi

Virac Radar

Polilio

Baler Radar

PAGASA - DIC

Legend:

proposed new repeater

existing repeater

The Challenge

• Existing and proposed radars provide adequate coverage

• Existing backbone uses 800 MHz

• The NTC (Philippines FCC) sold the frequency (licensed Spectrum) and it is being used by cellular companies

• Backbone communications not functional due to interferences

Title Goes Here

• Bullets Go Here– And Here Summary

Conclusions of Presentation

• Many developing and middle income countries do not have adequate weather forecasting tools

• Forecasting tools provide an understanding of storm dynamics and impacts

• Knowledge is empowering … saves lives and protects built environment

Conclusions of Presentation

• Funding is available from USTDA for feasibility studies

• Other funding programs are available for implementation (USAID, World Bank, multi national banks, etc.)

• US engineering firms and public/private partners offer advanced technology and expertise of weather management systems

Conclusions of Presentation

• Weather management expertise includes– Forecasting systems

– Now casting radar

– Real time data

– Communication systems

– Data management

– Modeling and warnings

– Land use planning and development

Title Goes Here

• Bullets Go Here– And Here Your Questions?

Thank You!