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중간점검보고서
167

4.16세월호참사 특별조사위원회 중간점검보고서

Jan 08, 2017

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  • 1 1

    . 1

    1. 1

    2. 1

    . 4

    1. 4

    2. (2014. 12. 18. ~ 2015. 3. 8.) 5

    3. (2015. 3. 9. ~ 2015. 5. 10.) 8

    4. (2015. 5. 11. ~ 2015. 8. 4.) 9

    5. (2015. 8. 4. ~ ) 12

    . 12

    . 13

    . TF 15

    . 17

    . 21

    . 22

    6. 22

    . 22

    . 24

    . 25

    1. 25

  • . 25

    . 26

    2. 27

    . 27

    . 28

    . 28

    3. 29

    . 2015 29

    . 2016 30

    4. 31

    5. 32

    . 32

    . 2015 11 32

    2 34

    . 34

    1. 34

    2. ( ) 34

    3. 35

    . 1 35

    . 2 36

    . 3 36

    4. 39

    . 40

  • . 40

    . 40

    . 41

    . 41

    5. 42

    . AIS 42

    . 43

    . 416 45. 46

    . 476. 48

    . 48

    . 49

    . (1) 49

    . (2) 54

    . (3) 57. 61

    1. 61

    . 61

    . : 62

    2. 66

    . / :

    67

    . 69

    . 71

  • . 72

    . / 74

    . 76

    3. 77

    . 77

    . 81

    4. 91

    . 93

    1. 93

    . 93

    . 94

    2. / 96

    . 96

    . / 97

    . 98

    3. , 100

    . 100

    . 105

    4. 110

    . ( -3, 14, 15, 17

    ) 110

    . ( -3, 14, 15, 17

    ) 113

    . , (

    -16, 23 ,

  • ) 115

    5. 115

    . (, , , ) 116

    . 120

    3 129

    133

    1. 133

    2. 136

    3. () 138

    4. 150

    5. ( ) 152

    6. EMI 161

  • 1 1

    1

    .

    1.

    2014 4 15 21 476

    . 18 30 , 17 35

    , 20 35 , 21

    .

    2014 4 16, 1.8( 2.9KM) (

    ) 8 25 135 145 ,

    30 ,

    10 17 108.1 , 11 18 ()

    .

    4 16 8 52 119

    ,

    476 172 304

    , 2016 9 9 .

    2.

    ,

    .

    .

    300 ,

    ,

  • 2

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    350 1) .

    , 5 19 2)

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    . , ,

    2

    .

    1 2014 8 7,

    .

    1) , , , 350 1,266 .

    2) 2014 5 19 , . . . .

    2. () , ,

    , ,

    17 , ()

    10(

    5 : 5), 2

    4, 3 .

  • 1 3

    , ( ) .

    .

    , , 8 19

    2 . 1

    .

    . 8 20

    77% ,

    .

    9 , 9 30

    . 2 ,

    .

    1. 8 19 ,

    8 7

    .

    1-1. 4 2

    .

    1-2. 9 .1-3. 2

    .

    4. ()

    .

  • 4

    10 . 10

    31, , 205 11 7

    416 ( ) . 2014 11 19 , 2015 1

    1 .

    .

    1.

    416 ( ) ,

    . . 50 2014 12 6,

    243

    . 2/3

    , .

    12 11 ,

    , 12 17 ,

    . 10

    12 11

    , , , ,

    . 12 17

    4 .

    2.

    .

    3. .

    4. , 10

    .

  • 1 5

    , , , ,

    10 12 29

    .

    2. (2014. 12. 18. ~ 2015. 3. 8.)

    6 3

    . 10 31 3(

    , , )

    ,

    .

    12 10, () 416 () .

    ,

    12 17 , ,

    , ,

    . 12 18,

    10 , 3,

    1 4, 7,

    3 10 14

    . 12 24 ,

    , ,

    5 .

    ,

    ,

    , .

    2015 1 5,

    , . 1 13,

    2 ,

    . 2014 12 29

  • 6

    ,

    , 2015 1 7 2

    , 2 .

    1 13 416 1 17 . ,

    3 ( , ,

    ) .

    , . 1

    16,

    .

    120 5

    125 , ,

    .3)

    125 5

    ,

    125

    . ,

    .

    . 2 1 16 , 1 19

    . .

    1 18 20,

    ,

    . 1 21 2

    , (),

    (), () .

    22 4

    ,

    3) 2015 3 . .

  • 1 7

    .

    23 3, 1

    3

    , 7

    . 11 2 3

    , 3 , 2 6 1

    .

    ,

    , 3

    2 4 .

    ,

    . , 2 12

    4 ,

    .

    5

    . 120( 5 )

    , 1, 3, 14 , 241

    198 .

    , 12

    , ,

    . ,

    .

    .

    5 4

    .

    , 2 15 5

    , !!

    . 4 ,

    2 17, , ,

    .

  • 8

    3. (2015. 3. 9. ~ 2015. 5. 10.)

    2015 1 1 3 5, ,

    , , , .

    , .

    3 9, 1 ,

    .

    , ,

    12

    .

    . , 3

    , .

    2 17 .

    , .

    3 10.

    , 3 25 .

    ,

    .

    3 27,

    . ,

    . 5 90 , 43

    1 ,

    .

    ,

    .

    3 27 29 ,

    , . 4 2

  • 1 9

    3 14

    10 ( , ,

    , , , , , , , )4)

    3.27() 416 .

    ,

    .

    4 7

    .

    , 1

    4 16 , 4 24

    .

    4 27,

    .

    , 4 30

    . ,

    5 30 .

    5 3 .

    , 5 6

    , 11 . 5 90 , 6 11 11

    120 .

    4. (2015. 5. 11. ~ 2015. 8. 4.)

    5 6,

    ,

    .

    .

    4) 4 ( , , , ) .

  • 10

    .

    , 5 27 41

    . 4

    4 / 5 7, 1, 2 / 6 6

    , 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 /

    7 8, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1

    .

    , 6 16

    , 6 25~26 ,

    7 3 . 6

    23, , 7 14 , 7 16

    , 7 24 .

    7 27 35 .

    ,

    .

    ,

    . 6 26

    ,

    . 7 23 .

    , 7

    . 2015 2

    17 , .

    , , , 1

    ,

    . 7 17

    .

    , , 1 ,

    ., . .

  • 1 11

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    .

    7 21

    .

    , , , 1

    .

    .

    8 4, 2015

    , .

    , .

    . 159, 89

    .

    45 , 14 .

    ,

    .

    . 0(

    , 7 15), , 160 (, 7

    24), 655, 252(

    , 7 27) .

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    .

  • 12

    5. (2015. 8. 4. ~ )

    .

    8 ,

    . .

    , ,

    , .

    .

    9 7,

    .

    ,

    . 1 9 14,

    . 26

    . 2016 3 11 180 ,

    238. 19

    10 229 .

    (16.9.30., : )

    /

    (, )

    ()

    1()

    2()

    3()

    238 238 10 - 248 19 229 71 111 12 11 24

    , 71,

    111,

    12, 1, 2, 3 .

  • 1 13

    , , ,

    11 ,

    24 .

    ( , ) (16.9.30., : )

    ()

    (++++)

    229 3 15 - 103 30 -73 174

    194 1 15 81 24 -57 1531 71 - 1 -15 26 6 -20 372 111 - 2 15 45 15 -30 98

    3 12 1 12 10 3 -7 18

    11 - - - - - 11 24 2 - 22 6 -16 10

    4

    (2015-94--25)

    ((-5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12,

    13)), ,

    (2016-1--1), (2016-2-

    -2) .

    .

    ,

    2016 6 30

    .

    .

    .

    , (31 1)

  • 14

    .

    ,

    .

    , ,

    .

    1 2015 12 14() 16() 3

    , YWCA .

    , ,

    . 31, 6 37

    2, 1 . 2

    .

    2 2016 3 28() 29()

    . 416 , ,

    , .

    39, 4 43 4

    2016 9 .

    3

    , 2016 9 1() 9 2()

    . 416 ,

    , , , ,

    .

    (TRS)

    .

    3 .

    8 23 6 30

    ,

  • 1 15

    , ,

    ,

    (7.1.~9.30.)

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    ( ) 3

    , 8 5 ,

    9 , 10

    . 11

    , ,

    .

    . 38 8 , 29 23

    ,

    .

    . TF

    2016 9 , ,

    9 .

    1 .

    .

    2015 10

    TF . TF 416 29 2,

    (T/F) . 2

    , , , 1 ,

  • 16

    1

    .

    , ,

    , 2016

    5 11 6 16

    .

    .

    - 2014. 11. 11.

    - 2015. 2. 5. (TF),

    - 2015. 4. 22. ,

    - 2015. 8. 4. ( )

    - 2015. 9. 1. ~ 2. ( 1)

    - 2015. 10. 7. TF () (

    TF )

    - 2015. 11. 18. ~ 22. .

    - 2016. 1. 26.

    - 2016. 4. 11. ~ 12.

    - 2016. 4. 26. ~ 27.

    - 2016. 5. 11. ~ 6. 16.

    - 2016. 5. 28. ~ 29. ()

    - 2016. 6. 11. ~ 16. ( )

    - 2016. 7. 15.

    - 2016. 7. 27 ~ 30. (7. 29. )

    TF

    . .

    3~4

    ,

  • 1 17

    .

    .

    .

    .

    , , .

    17 .

    1

    1

    AIS

    AIS , , AIS

    ( ) 2015. 10. 1. ~ 2015. 12. 23

    2

    - (Fluid-Structure Interaction analysistechnique)

    ( ) 2015. 12. 11. ~ 2016. 5. 31.

    3

    -

    ( )

    2015. 12. 11. ~ 2016. 5. 31.

    4

    , GM - (Fluid- StructureInteraction; FSI)

  • 18

    ( )

    2016. 3. 16. ~ 2016. 9. 16.

    2

    1

    /() 2015. 12. 15. ~ 2016. 6. 14.

    2

    /() 2016. 6. 15. ~

    3

    416 VTS ,

    GESTS( ) 2016. 3. 18. ~ 2016. 5. 18.

    4

    416

    TRS

    2016. 5. 3. ~ 2016. 6. 30.

    5

    VTS VHF VTS

    2016. 4. 28. ~ 2016. 6. 20.

    6

    TRS

    2016. 3. 14. ~ 2016. 3. 31.

    3

    1

    4.16

    4.16 -

    (: , : ())

    2015. 10. 11. ~ 2015. 12. 15.

    2

  • 1 19

    3, ,

    : (): (,)

    2015. 12. 30. ~ 2016. 5. 30.

    3

    1.

    2. SNS

    () 2016. 2. 15. ~ 2016. 5. 30.

    1

    416

    , ,

    ( ) 2016.1.5.~2016.7.3

    2

    416

    , ,

    ( ) 2015.12.11.~2016.7.3

    3

    416

    , ,

    ( ) 2016.1.5.~2016.7.3

    4

    416 1, 2 ,

    , ,

    ( ) 2015.12.8.~2016.7.3

  • 20

    , 416

    ,

    2016 7 20 .5)

    (12) (3) (4) ,

    (75.4%), (72.7%)

    , 56% 1

    0.6% ,

    . ,

    .

    .

    ,

    ,

    , .

    , ,

    .

    3

    , (SNS)

    .

    (RT)

    . ,

    (RT)

    .6)

    1 -

    5) .6) .

  • 1 21

    2016 9

    3 .7)

    .

    37 ,

    ,

    . , .

    1 ,

    , , ,

    ,

    19 2016 2 19

    . ,

    2016 6 30 20 .

    ,

    123 .

    .

    , ,

    . ,

    ,

    .

    19

    . 20 , 9

    3 .

    7) .

  • 22

    ,

    . .

    .

    2015 8

    .

    7 23 8 10

    . 7 17 , 24

    11 . 2016

    2 15 , 18

    .

    2015 11 23 19

    , , , ,

    . 11 25,

    12 14,

    . 6 6 30 15 12 25 16 1 13 ,

    16 9 .

    ( )

    , 2016 3 9

    . 5 19,

    5 25 . 9 ,

    .8)

    6.

    .

    8) 2016 9 1 .

  • 1 23

    1 6

    .

    , 2015 8 4 .

    , 3

    , 2015 1 1

    .

    2015 1 1 1 6

    2016 6 30 , 7 1

    3(~9.30) . 2016 5 27,

    `16. 6. 3.()

    , 6 7 () , () 16 6 14() . 6 9

    16.6.14() .

    2017 2 4 5 3

    6 3 , 13 .

    , ,

    .

    1

    , 6 21 , (10) 67( 50, 17) .

    6 24, (16.7.1~9.30) (72) ,

    6 29 , 28

    () ,

    2016 .

  • 24

    , (16.6.30)

    16 7. 1

    () , 6 30 . 7

    .

    .

    , 21

    . 2016 6 7

    ,

    .

    17 ,

    . 2016 6

    .

    .

    7 , ,

    .

    . 29 12

    .

    , 2016 7 27

    .

    ,

    , ,

    .

    2015 7 27 1 ,

    7

  • 1 25

    3 .

    9

    .

    .

    1.

    .

    2015 5 11

    . , ,

    .

    ,

    . 2015 1 16

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    .

    , .

    , ,

    1 .

    .

    , .

    ,

    .

    . 1

  • 26

    2 ,

    .

    ,

    , 5 120 .

    , , 6

    90 .

    2015

    . 2015 5 29,

    9) , .

    6 25,

    ,

    .

    .

    2016 9 , , 2015

    ,

    .

    5 29 .

    , .

    9) .

    3-1. , .

    3-2. , 3 6 .

  • 1 27

    .

    2015 9 7 .

    .

    '

    ' 11 5 .

    , 2016

    .

    .

    , .

    2.

    .

    2015 1 1 ,

    .

    , 2 3 5

    3 9 .

    1 1

    2015 1 3

    .

    3-3.

    6 .

  • 28

    , 3 ,

    .

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    2016 9 .

    2015 8 7 17

    , 8 20 . 9 8,

    , 11

    17

    .

    .

    12 15

    .

    .

    .

    , 2015 11 11 90 120

    . 36 48

    , 1 . 6 30

    29 , 60% .

    120 100

    .

    .

  • 1 29

    (16. 6. 30. )

    34 4 5 6 7() 48 1 1 3 11 16 16() 29 1 1 3 8 10 6

    3.

    . 2015

    2015 2015 240

    .

    , 159 .

    44% 70 89 8 4

    .

    .

    87%

    . ,

    3 1 ,

    .

    , 69% 3 1

    .

    2015 (:)

    15,981 8,910 - 7,071 - 44% 11,399 7,487 - 3,912 - 34%

    2,197 1,898 - 299 - 14% 9,202 5,589 - 3,613 - 39%

    2,971 1,770 - 1,201 - 40% 819 104 - 715 - 87% 304 68 - 234 - 77% 340 280 - 60 - 18% 222 127 - 95 - 43%

  • 30

    . 2016

    2016 , 61 7000

    . 2016 , 198

    7000 31% .

    6 7300 , 73 5300 9%

    . 48 8

    .

    .

    11 24 122 4

    61 7 62 '

    ' 48 8 19 9

    . 12 3

    .

    2016 (:)

    66 66 0 0% 16 11 - 5 - 28% 1,550 1,240 - 310 - 20% 2,018 1,026 - 992 - 49% 893 893 0 0%

    4,580 1,422 - 3,158 - 69% 536 269 - 267 - 50% 321 51 - 270 - 84% 1,343 433 - 910 - 68% 309 125 - 184 - 59% 679 117 - 562 - 83% 807 362 - 445 - 55% 583 62 - 521 - 89%

    19,867 6,171 - 13,696 - 69% 10,817 5,134 - 5,683 - 53%

  • 1 31

    4.

    ,

    3910) .

    ,

    . 123

    ,

    1 .

    ,

    . .

    2016 6 8,

    , .

    10) 39( ) .

    4,606 2,887 - 1,719 - 37% 6,213 2,247 - 3,966 - 64%

    3,391 1610 - 1,781 - 53% 1,639 132 - 1,507 - 92% 444 88 - 356 - 80% 578 310 - 268 - 46% 66 66 - 0% 88 36 - 52 - 59% 5 5 - 0%

    9,050 1,037 - 8,013 - 89% 280 123 - 157 - 56% 303 42 - 261 - 86% 6,098 315 - 5,783 - 95% 538 269 - 269 - 50% 521 81 - 440 - 84% 363 160 - 203 - 56% 414 47 - 367 - 89% 533 - - 533 - 100%

  • 32

    .

    ,

    .

    TRS 100

    , 2016 5 27

    , .

    , 6 1

    .

    0.7% 7,000 ,

    7 1 .

    .

    MBC .

    2 .

    .

    5.

    .

    2015 1 22

    3 4( 3, 1)

    , .

    . 1 23

    .

    . , ,

    2 3 4 .

  • 1 33

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    2015 11 19, [] , BH

    ... 11) .

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    12),

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    .

    11) the300, http://the300.mt.co.kr/newsView.html?no=201511190834763243112) . ,

    ?, 2015 12 17, http://newstapa.org/30811~

  • 34

    2

    .

    1.

    16( ) 1

    .

    1. ,

    .

    , ,

    , , , 7

    , 1 2015 11 23 19

    , , 3

    ( ) .

    2016 4

    2015 12 14 1)

    2016 9

    .

    2. ( )

    5 9 ,

    1. 416 , 3. 416 , 4. 416

    1) 11( ) . 2.

  • 2 35

    .

    6()

    1~3 , 1 1

    , 3 2, 4 3 .

    , 6 416 31 1

    , .

    , , ,

    .

    3.

    1 ,

    .

    . 1

    2015 12 14() 16() 3 YWCA 1

    (2015 8) 4 .

    ,

    .

    , 416 ,

    , 123

    ,

    , 123

    123

  • 36

    , CN-235

    .2)3)

    . 2

    2016 3 28() 29() 8

    2

    , 1

    .4)5)

    2

    , AIS ,

    , VTS VTS

    , , ,

    ,

    .

    . 3

    3 2016 9 1(), 2()

    (1) . 2016 6 30

    ,

    .

    ,

    2) 1 .3) 1 31, 6 29, 5 ,

    1 180, 540 , 89 283 .

    4) 2 5) 2 39, 4 35, 4() ,

    1 180, 360 , 99 312 .

  • 2 37

    ,

    . 3 .

    (1) CCTV ,

    2

    (CCTV) ,

    CCTV CCTV

    , CCTV

    .

    (2) ,

    , 2010

    2012 2013

    2 ,

    ,

    . 2014 4 15

    , --

    .

    ,

    .

    (3) ,

    ,

  • 38

    19mm

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    (4) ,

    10

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    (5) ,

    ,

    , , TV

    .

    .

    (6) ,

    KBS ( )

    , KBS (

    ) KBS

    ,

  • 2 39

    ,

    .

    (7) , ,

    9

    .

    .

    (8) (TRS) ,

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    , ,

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    6) 3 .7) 3 38, 29 8, 23 ,

    290 , 69 205 . TV TBS .

  • 40

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  • 42

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    .

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    (AIS)

    ,

    .

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    , 5

    .

    , AIS , , 16 08 49 44

    .

    , ,

    .

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    .

    08 49 44 51 02 ,

    . ,

    51 02 ,

    ,

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    8) 416 .

  • 2 43

    AIS ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    AIS

    , ,

    () ,

    AIS

    .9)

    .

    , , GoM , -

    (Fluid-Structure Interaction; FSI) (seawater)

    .

    CCTV

    ,

    ,

    -

    GoM 0.475m . (

    ) GoM 0.359m

    .

    , CCTV

    9) AIS

  • 44

    GoM

    .

    -

    M&S

    . GoM

    0.475m GoM 0.359m KRISO10) GoM 0.590m

    .

    20

    . 17.1 19.0

    . 0

    0

    .

    .

    GoM 0.475m

    AIS

    33 .

    GoM AIS 39

    GoM

    . KRIOS GoM AIS E

    , 15 .

    37

    .

    GoM 0.475m

    AIS 17

    .

    AIS . 20

    10) . .

  • 2 45

    AIS

    . 19.0 AIS

    .

    GoM 0.475m

    .

    ,

    .

    D

    13.8 26.3

    , 32.1

    35.0

    .

    C D 555

    , D

    C

    .11) .

    . 416

    ,

    2 . 5 , 3

    6 , 4

    1 1 , , 3 .

    11)

  • 46

    , 56% .

    ,

    .

    , ,

    ,

    .12)

    .

    ,

    ( 3, , )

    .

    1 2

    , 1 163

    21 2 .

    , 1 70%

    ,

    . , 60%

    , 20%

    . ,

    ,

    1/3 . ,

    12) 416 .

  • 2 47

    ,

    .

    , 2 ,

    , ,

    .

    , ,

    . , 3

    , ,

    .

    ,

    .13)

    .

    ( 1),

    SNS ( 2) .

    1 2014 4 16 12 31

    . SNS

    , ,

    .

    7

    , 3

    .

    , 9 22 . 5

    13) .

  • 48

    (+, , , , )

    1

    5.6 ,

    .

    2 2014 4 16 26(1),

    2014 8 19 29(2), 1 2015 4 11 21

    (3)

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