4 intersucho zalud

Integrated drought monitoring systems - a tool for drought research and practical applications.

April 22, 2015, Bucharest

Miroslav Trnka + 35 scientists + Zdeněk Žalud

Mendel University in Brno, CzechGlobe AS,

BOKU Wien, NDMC Lincoln + 5 institutions

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PRESENTATION OUTLINE

Real time drought

monitoring

Droughts in the past

InterDrought

project

Drought risks in the future

Research

Ecosystem responses to

drought

Education

awarness, dissemination

Practise

Society response to

drought

Intersucho = InterDrought

example of an integrated

drought project

1) WHY – drought in the past

– expected drought trends;

2) What and how– integrated drought

monitoring system;

– 5 pillars (incl. remote

systems)

3) To whom– education applications

– practical applications;

– research applications

4) Future challenges

InterDrought project

• 15 years ago

• Mostly supported by Czech agencies (GACR, NAZV…)

• International support (EU – programs – CECILIA, ADAGIO, CLIMSAVE)

• Structure founds – Operation program – partly EU, partly CR project (3 years 2012-

2015)

“Establishment of International Scientific Team

Focused on Drought Research”

InterDrought project

InterDrought

project

Temperature average for the ČR (1881-2006)

Precipitation average for ČR (1881-2006)

trend+0.082 °C

Per decade

No trend per decade

Drought in the past

Drought in the past (1961-2000)

(0-0,5 m) (0,5-1,0 m)

Drought in the past – relative soil moisture 1961-2012

May

July

Sept

April

June

August

(0-1,0 m)

Drought in the past – relative soil moisture 1961-2012

+1,0°C

+2,0°C

Drought risks

in the future

Drought in the future : Water balance (prec – reference evapotr)

1961-2000 +2,0, °C

4-years drought

20-years drought

Drought risk in the future?

Drought risks in the future

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Our answer to the observed trends:

Integrated drought monitoring system:www.intersucho.cz

- Weekly operated

- 500 x 500 m = 320 000 grids

- based on plenty of data

- All products are for free

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Integrated drought monitoring system

Real time drought

monitoring

Real time drought

monitoring

Detail (!) digital terrain model:

Integrated drought monitoring

www.intersucho.czReal time drought

monitoring

Pilar I: drought intensity based on soil moisture content

Real time drought

monitoring

Pilar I: drought intensity based on soil moisture content

Real time drought

monitoring

www.intersucho.cz

Pilar I: Soil moisture content

Real time drought

monitoring

Pilar I: Soil moisture content (%)

Pilar I: … this Sunday – not drought at all (%)

Real time drought

monitoring

Pilar I: Soil moisture content (mm)

Real time drought

monitoring

Spatial definition

To show whole Czech republic is

nice but users want more detail

drought assessment

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Spatial definition

Real time drought

monitoring

www.intersucho.cz

District level

Real time drought

monitoring

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Czech districts (77) – NUTS 4

Real time drought

monitoring

0 - 40 cm

0 - 100 cm

Czech district – Znojmo NUTS 4

Real time drought

monitoring

0- 40 cm

0 - 100 cm

Soil moisture Czech district – Znojmo NUTS 4

Satelite Terra

- owner: NASA

- data: since 2000

- overflight altitude: 705 km

- Swath width: 2230 km (MODIS)

- resolution: 250 m

Inspired by VegDRI

Pilar III: Near real time vegetation status monitoring

Real time drought

monitoring

www.intersucho.cz

Pilar III: Satellite - observations

Real time drought

monitoring

Pilar III: Satellite – observations – vegetation conditations

20002012 Really dry years2014

- Arable land observation

- Monitoring of biomass increase = EVI

- Yield signals picked-up early in season

- 5 weeks – harvest forecast

Terra satellite

(www.nasa.gov)

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

průměr

maximum

minimum

2000

2012

2014

Ko

nd

ice

vege

tace

(EV

I) Znojmo

Pilar III: Near real time vegetation status monitoring

Real time drought

monitoring

Pilar III: Near real time vegetation status monitoring

Pilar IV: Long-term climatological prognosis

Pilar V: Reported drought impacts – feedback by farmers

Challenges: 1. To raise awarness and generate interest

Education

awarness, dissemination

Challenges: 2. to engage and sustain it

• Since November 2014 –

more than 15 meetings with

over 1000 potential users

(from ministers to farmers)

• 10 articles in farmers journals

• (last year)

• 15 scientific papers

• (last 5 years)

• Web page: intersucho.cz

• Goal to have approximately

active 300 respondents by

the end of the year.Education

awarness, dissemination

Challenges: 3. to continue research tempo and sustain it

NEAR TERM RESEARCH PRIORITIES:

• Apply in parallels to statistical also ECMWF and NCAR model based prognosis

of soil moisture with 10 – 15 days of lead time;

• Extend the operational vegetation status monitoring to the whole of Central

Europe (Slovakia will come online during 2015);

• Apply the CMIP5 projections over 21st century to assess the risks.

SUSTAINABILITY

• The Integrated system has generated considerable interests amongst users –

willingness to support it with committing time and resources;

• Base funding should be sufficient till 2020 at least

– …..some drought would help to support the argumentation

Miroslav Trnka, Petr Hlavinka, Daniela Semerádová, Jan Balek, Zdeněk Žalud,Lenka Bartošová, Eva Kocmánková, Martin Dubrovský, Jan Kyselý, Martin Možný, Jiří Hostýnek, Petr Štěpánek, Pavel Zahradníček, Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Michal Rybníček, Tomáš Kolář, Josef Eitzinger, Herbert Formayer, Roman Bohovic, Brian Wardlow, Tsegaye Tadesse, Mark Svoboda, Mike Hayes

,

On behalf of the co-authors:

Thank You for Your attention !