Cebu Air, Inc. 3 rd Quarter Results of Operations November 14, 2019
Cebu Air, Inc.3rd Quarter
Results of Operations
November 14, 2019
The information provided in this presentation is provided only for your reference. Such information has not been independently verified and, as such, is not guaranteed to be accurate nor complete. Neither Cebu Air, Inc. (“CEB” or the “Company”) nor any of its affiliates, shareholders, directors, employees, agents or advisers makes expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and neither of them shall accept any responsibility or liability (including any third party liability) for any loss or damage, whether or not arising from any error or omission in compiling such information or as a result of any party’s reliance or use of such information. The information and opinions in this presentation are subject to change without notice.
EBITDAR, EBITDA, EBITDAR Margin, EBIT and core net income are not measures of performance under the Philippine Financial Reporting Standards (“PFRS”), and should not be considered in isolation or as alternatives to net income as an indicator of CEB’s operating performance or to cash flow from operating, investing and financing activities as a measure of liquidity, or any other measures of performance under PFRS. Because there are various EBITDAR, EBITDA, EBITDAR Margin, EBIT and core net income calculation methods,CEB’s presentation of these measures may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies.
This presentation also contains certain “forward-looking statements.” These forward-looking statements include words or phrases such as CEB or its management “believes”, “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “plans”, “foresees”, or other words or phrases of similar import. Similarly, statements that describe CEB’s objectives, plans or goals are also forward-looking statements. All such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the relevant forward-looking statement. Such forward looking statements are made based on management’s current expectations or beliefs as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available to, management. There is no assurance that expectedevents will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that the Company and its management’s assumptions are correct.
Disclaimer
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Rev: P18.92B, +16.8% Pax vol: 5.47M, +15.1%
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SLF: 85.1%, +2.7% ptsPax yield: P3,191, +2.8%
EBITDAR:P5.27B, +61.1% EBIT: P885M, +241.8%
PTCore Inc: P259M,+123.8% Net Income: (P384M),+25.9%
RPK: 6.1B, +18.2%ASK: 7.3B, +16.7%
Jet/bbl: $76.91,-13.4% Php/$: P51.78, -3.3%
3Q2019 Snapshot
• Fleet: 72 AC vs 67 3Q18
Rev: P63.6B, +17.7% Pax Vol: 16.7M, +10.4%
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SLF: 86.5%, +1.8 pptsPax yield: P3,555, +7.6%
EBITDAR: P22.5B, +47%EBIT: P9.82B, +137%
• EBIT 15.4% margin
PTCore Inc: P7.89B, +171% • 12.4% PTC margin
Net Income: P6.7B, +143% • 10.6% Net margin
RPK: 18.5B +14.5%ASK: 21.7B +13.5%
Jet/bbl: $77.66, -9%Php/$: 52.06, -0.9%
9M2019 Year to Date Update
Domestic Market
3.9M passengers, up 11.2% YOY
4.5M seats, up 6.1% YOY, for 87% SLF
Network:• 35 destinations• 80 routes• >2,100 weekly flights
53% Market share = 1.06 CPI
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Clark-Iloilo and Clark-Bacolod daily flights launched August
11.9M passengers, up 7.3% YOY
13.5M seats, up 4.8% YOY, for 88% SLF
3rd Qtr:
YTD 9M:
International Market
1.6M passengers, up 25.5% YOY
1.95M seats, up 25.4% YOY, 82% SLF
Network:• 27 destinations• 41 routes• 581 weekly flights
Manila-Shenzhen: 4x/wk flight launched July
Clark-Narita: 4x/wk launched Aug
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3rd Qtr:
YTD 9M:
4.8M passengers, up 19.0% YOY
5.8M seats, up 18.0% YOY, 83% SLF
*source: Published MOPS and BAP rates
Income Statement Highlights
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3Q19 3Q18 % YOY 9M19 9M18 % YOYTotal Revenue (Php M) 18,922 16,202 17% 63,625 54,037 18%
Passenger 13,246 11,234 18% 46,598 39,537 18%Ancillary 4,196 3,522 19% 12,711 10,402 22%Cargo 1,479 1,445 2% 4,315 4,098 5%
Average YieldsAverage fare/pax 2,423 2,364 3% 2,794 2,617 7%Ancillary/pax 768 741 4% 762 689 11%
Cargo yield / kg 27.37 26.15 5% 27.76 26.84 3%ASK (M) 7,278 6,238 17% 21,724 19,144 14%Revenue/ASK (RASK) 2.60 2.60 0.1% 2.93 2.82 4%Cost/ASK (CASK) 2.48 2.70 -8% 2.48 2.61 -5%CASK ex-fuel 1.65 1.67 -1% 1.63 1.63 -0.1%Jet $/bbl* 76.91 88.77 -13.4% 77.66 85.37 -9.0%P/US$* 51.78 53.56 -3.3% 52.06 52.51 -0.9%Income (PHP million)
EBITDAR 5,274 3,275 61% 22,503 15,271 47%EBIT 885 -624 242% 9,816 4,136 137%Pre-tax Core Income 259 -1,088 124% 7,964 2,941 171%Net Income -384 -518 26% 6,754 2,781 143%
Margins (%) % % ppt % % pptEBITDAR 27.9 20.2 7.7 35.4 28.3 7.1EBIT 4.7 -3.9 8.6 15.4 7.7 7.7Pre-tax Core Income 1.4 -6.7 8.1 12.5 5.4 7.1Net Income -2.0 -3.2 1.2 10.6 5.2 5.4
+Yields up
= YTD 9M Net Inc > double!
Strong passenger demand
+Effective Cost Mgt
Balance Sheet Highlights
+ 2 A320NEOs, - 2 A320CEOs
IFRS16: Capitalized lease
Dividends paid July 2019
Conservative Net Debt to Equity of 1.36x
already inclusive of capitalized lease liability
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In Millions of PHPSept. 30,
2019Dec. 31,
20182019 vs end
2018Cash and cash equiv. 21,578 16,893 4,685Other current assets 7,985 9,052 -1,067
Property & equipment 88,269 95,099 -6,830Right of Use Asset 33,411 - 33,411Others 7,338 8,347 -1,009TOTAL ASSETS 158,581 129,391 29,190
Current Debt 6,038 6,615 -577Noncurrent Debt 39,668 47,182 -7,514Current Lease 5,595 - 5,595Noncurrent Lease 28,079 - 28,079 Other liabilities 36,680 35,492 1,188 TOTAL LIABILITIES 116,060 89,289 26,771 EQUITY 42,518 40,102 2,416
Cash to Sales Ratio 30.2% 23.0%Current Ratio 0.72 0.75Net debt to Equity 1.36 0.92
Cash Flow Highlights
1.45 M shares bought back since January 2, 2019
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Exits • 3 A320s sold• 2 A320s
returnedDeliveries: • 2 A321NEOs• 3 A320NEOs• 1 ATR 72-600
in Millions of PHP 9M19CASHFLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIESIncome after noncash adjustments 21,839 Net changes in working capital 860 Interest and taxes paid – net -2,116 Net cash provided by operating activities 20,583 CASHFLOWS FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIESAcquisition of PPE -4,591 Proceeds from disposal 4,406 Other noncurrent asset 513 Net cash provided by investing activities 328 CASHFLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIESRepayment of debt -7,647 Payment of lease liability -3,993 Dividends paid -4,206 Treasury Stocks -121 Net cash used in financing activities -15,967 Net foreign exchange difference -259 NET INCREASE IN CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS 4,686 CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS, beginning 16,893 CASH AND EQUIVALENTS, END 21,578
Fuel: with layered hedges to match bookings:
Jet fuel at $76.4/bbl* vs. $77.7/bbl end Sept’19
Ongoing hedge ratios:
37% for balance 2019
27% for 2020
CEB layers these hedges using swaps and collars
with Jet and Brent as underlying
Forex: Natural hedges reduce exposure:
USD at Php 50.41* vs. Php 51.83 end Sept’19
Natural cash flow hedges and non-deliverable forwards
Rates: Now at a downtrend:
3Mo Libor at 1.891%*, down 31 bps vs. 3Q19
3Mo BVAL at 3.154%*, down 47 bps vs. 3Q19
Php loans at 100% float
USD loans and leases at 37% float
*date of ref : Nov 5, 2019; bps = basis points
Macroeconomic and Commercial OutlookMacroeconomic and Commercial Outlook
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3M Forward booking as of Oct 28 : 39% of seats sold for the next 3 mos,
ahead of 35% same period LY
Delivery
Number of Aircraft to be
DeliveredAircraft Delivery
Schedule
Existing Order:
A320NEO 2 2H2019
A321NEO 30 2H2019-2023
ATR 600 3 2020-2022
New Order:
A330NEO 16 2021-2024
A320NEO 5 2023-2024
A321XLR 10 2024-2026
Total Order 66
Total remaining aircraft order of 66*, to replace Airbus A320CEOs , A330 CEOs, and ATR 72-500s
Estimated seat growth:5 year CAGR of 8-9%
Fleet Plan, end Sept 2019
Baseline fleet of 89 aircraft by 2024, but with ability to grow further or moderate
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* 2 out of 66 AC orders were received last October 1 and 10, 2019
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