3CP - Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning (Nov15)

GEORGE C. MARSHALL CENTERCollege of International and Security StudiesGarmisch – Partenkirchen, Germany

LTC ULRICH M. JANSSENProgram ManagerEmail: [email protected]: Ulrich JanßenTwitter: @UliJanOgauPhone: +49-8821-750-2658 · DSN 440-2658

Comprehensive Crisis Communications PlanningAshgabat, August 2014

DISASTER PREPARED & RESPONSE WORKSHOP

AgendaComprehensive Crisis Communications Planning

The changing character of crisis and conflict Situation Awareness and Crisis Identification Challenges for Crisis Management Stakeholder Analysis Ensuring C5 Information Sharing Cooperation & Coordination in all phases

Examples

Summary & Conclusion

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C2W“Military Facts”

Peace Crisis/Conflict War Transition Post War Peace

“War is merely the continuation of politics by other means.” (Carl v. Clausewitz)Center of Gravity: enemy / enemy capabilities

Humanitarian AssistanceCivil Engagement

Reconstruction(Marshall Plan)

IW(1970)IO(1990)

Military Role in Crisis Management

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Significant Changes since 1990 Cause of conflict and related threats Geographic Focus Strategy and Complexity We, the enemy, and other actors Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures Role & Training Needs Technology & Information

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Challenge #1The changing character of crisis and conflict

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Challenge #2Asymmetric Spectrum of 21st Century Operations China/Russia

Cyber Warfare / Anti-Satellite Warfare RUS ./. EST, RUS ./. GEO

Cyber Operations North Korea, Iran

Nuclear Deterrence Afghanistan / Iraq

Insurgencies Al Qaeda

Global Terrorist Network Civil unrest

Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Syria, Yemen, Ukraine Natural Disaster

Haiti, Japan, USA23-Aug-14 7

Challenge #3Multiple Actors in Crisis Management

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UN OSCE EU NATO NGO PMCGO SingleNation Others

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Uncoordinated action generate uncoordinated / unplanned effectsCrisis resolution hard to predictSuccess depending on continuous presence and engagement of the ICLong-term commitment required (high costs)

Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects

Challenge #4Battlefield of the Media

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Challenge #5 Revolution in Technology and Enhanced Connectivity

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"The extent, depth, andspeed of the new globalmedia have created anew species of effects...The military must understand, anticipate, andplan for this new dynamic." (Margaret H. Belknap, 2001)

Challenge #6The unknown unknowns

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“Military Facts”

MediaSocial structures

Political / Civilstructures

Key Players/Actors Economy

TransportationFinance

Culture

CommunicationGrids

Peace Crisis/Conflict War Transition Post War Peace

People Tradition

ReligionLawEmotions

Education

“War is merely the failure of communications by other means.” (Clausewitz adapted by UJ)

Center of Gravity: people’s perception

Info Ops(2000)StratCom(2009)

Military Engagement in 21st Century Crisis Management

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Alvin TofflerUS Author and Futurologist

Crisis Prevention / Disaster Preparedness

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Nature of Conflict

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Civ-Mil Partnering in 21st Century Crisis Management

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Need a <br>..?

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Strategy First · Starting with the WHY

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Who needs to be involvedStakeholder Analysis

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Planning Considerations #1People in the Focus

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Planning Considerations #2Successful CommunicationsPaul WatzlawikOne cannot NOT communicate!Dave WatermanEBC · Effects-based CommunicationsMarketingAIDA · Attention, Interest, Desire, ActionMark Laity5S · Simplify, Shorten, Share, Sustain, and StaffChip & Dan Heath: Made to StickSUCCESS · Simple, Unexpected, Concrete, Credible, Emotional, StorieSG. Richard Shell, Mario Moussa: The Art of WOOUsing strategic persuasion to sell your ideas

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Did you ever try to explain to your best friend how to play chess on your behalf?Commanders, Planners, Units crash too often.

We must replace the delusion of control by reality of influence. (Mark Laity)

Planning Considerations #3Doing right things right

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Planning Consideration #4

Planning Consideration #5Perception · how we look at others and others look at us

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Planning Consideration #6Instruments of Power · Strategic Lines of Engagement

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Political CivilMilitary Economic

The Product powered by the Power of Information

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Political CivilMilitary Economici = 0 1 i = 1 MPEC i > 1 exponentially adding value

International Design for Conflict Resolution

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Comprehensive Crisis CommunicationsAims Implementation as a process To ensure Consistency and Credibility of Communications by ALL means through Comprehensive Coordination Linking policy with action Avoid “Say-Do-Gap”

Perception Management at its best!23-Aug-14 32

.gnikniht fo yaw tnereffid A

Implementation and Integration of in

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Analysis(KnowledgeDevelopment)Analysis(KnowledgeDevelopment)

PlanDevelopment

PlanDevelopment

Execution(or on the shelf)Execution(or on the shelf)

Assess

ment

Assess

ment ComprehensiveOperationsCycle

Comprehensive Crisis Communications PlanningPhasesInitial Situation Awareness of potential / actual crisis

Appreciation of the environment Stakeholder Analysis Estimate of the situation

Plan Development Development of a Concept of Operations Plan Development

Execution Review & Update Assessment

Transition16-May-16 34

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Human Terrain Analysis & UnderstandingSystem Status, System Behavior, System Dynamics

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Comprehensive Crises Communications Planning(1) System Analysis & Knowledge DevelopmentExample 1: Global Warming

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Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning(1) System Analysis & Knowledge Development Example 1: New York City’s comprehensive waterfront plan Vision 2020

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Planning ProcessPhase 1 (Spring 2010)Identify goals and issuesPhase 2 (Summer 2010)Identify opportunities and prioritiesPhase 3 (Fall 2010)Identify Recommendations

Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning (1) System Analysis & Knowledge Development Example 2: Water Scarcity, Everglades, Australia

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Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning (1) System Analysis & Knowledge Development Example 3: Cyber Security Skills Crisis

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Comprehensive Crisis CommunicationsConsiderations for Plan Development, Execution and Assessment

16-May-16 42

Comprehensive Crisis CommunicationsConsiderations for Plan Development, Execution and Assessment

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Make the difference –give people the choice.

Action greater impact on people’s perceptions, motivation, behaviour.

Are we doing right things… right?

Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning(2) Plan DevelopmentExample 1: Climate Change

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Driving Analogy

23-Aug-14 45UNCLASSIFIED

Comprehensive Crisis Communications [email protected]

DISASTER PREPARED & RESPONSE WORKSHOP