3AF - 6 th International Conference on Missile defence Feb. 2010 1 Lethality Assessment Process By Elie Levy Col. (Res.) President of Linkcom-Telecom May.

3AF - 6th International Conference on Missile defence

Feb. 20101

Lethality Assessment ProcessLethality Assessment ProcessByBy

Elie Levy Col. (Res.)Elie Levy Col. (Res.)President of Linkcom-TelecomPresident of Linkcom-Telecom

May 2010 - IsraelMay 2010 - Israel

unclassified

Unclassified

Lethality Assessment Process

The Problem! Validating and assessing the SSPk of an

interceptor, with high confidence level, against the various known and predicted TBM threats, for various payload types and appropriate trajectories

Backing on Flight test solution only requires a very large number of tests (3-4 digits) – unacceptable from cost and schedule aspects

Solution – wait for the presentation

Unclassified Lethality Assessment Process

Presentation topics

Objectives Definitions and typing Design Phase Arena tests Simulations (Hydro code, CFD, G&C) Hypervelocity tests (Gun, Sled) Flight Tests Kill Assessment Summary and Conclusion

Feb 20103

Feb. 2010

Unclassified Killing the CW Threat - Definitions

Capability of decreasing the threat damage to defended targets is achieved by the Lethality characteristic of the interceptor WH = PK/h. (probability of kill given hit)

The capability of evaluating the residual Lethality of the intercepted threat is the Kill Assessment characteristic of the BMDS.

The Ability to Assess the threat and its payload resides in the typing assessment capability of the BMDS In Near real time

Final Typing is done via collected residuals’ analysis

Unclassified Lethality Assessment Process

Design phase

Threat definition with “sweet spots” (SS) and payloads characterization

Interceptor Kill mechanism definition – HTK, fragmentation, enhancers

PK/hss allocation for various threat types and trajectories – Based on operational research, engineering design and simulations (G&C, divert capabilities, MD…).

PK/hss = P(Launch), P(acquisition), P(hit), P(hit sweet spot)

Feb 2010

Feb. 2010

Unclassified Killing the Threat

Killing the HE threat = Initiating its payload (Bulk and/or submunition) - HOD

Killing/neutralizing the Chemical threat = Decreasing the damage incurred by decreasing its lethality (lethal effect) below a threshold -Hard Kill = Destroying the warhead by:

- Spilling the liquid high enough, rupturing its envelope by collision/Hit - Neutralizing fuze - Activating dispersion mechanism

UnclassifiedKilling the Threat

-Mission Kill = De-routing hit point of payload/agent outside defended asset Intercept Altitude depends on: - Agent type – Persistent or volatile - Meteorological conditions (mainly wind) - Defended assets lay out - Passive defense

Feb 2010

Unclassified CW Interception process - SM

Sub-Munition

Break UpIntercept

Dispersion)Killed SM(

Wind

Ground Guided Flight

Launch Deposition

Acquisition and End Game

Chart 2 – Interceptor Flight Phases – Sub-munitions

Intact SM

Hit Area

Unclassified Lethality Assessment Process

Ground static tests Done on Warhead kill vehicle prototypes armed Environmental testing Arena test – Characterize the Interceptor warhead

status after static initiation and hit (Dispersion, penetration, Energy…)

Characterize enhancers performance Validate fusing systems

Feb 2010

Unclassified Lethality Assessment Process

Lethality Simulation – Hydrocodes Hydrocodes or wave propagation codes are

numerical tool simulating crash & impact by calculating physical processes to a sufficient degree of precision. Main aspects:

- Uses valid Mathematical basics - Needs Qualified scientists to assess the

quality of approximate solutions - Needs inputs from experiments to tune model

and material tests to characterize materials behavior under fast shock pulses (Stress and strain coefficients)

Feb. 201010

Unclassified Lethality Assessment Process

Hydrocodes elements Characteristic: - Mass, momentum and Energy conservation

equations - Nonlinear equation of state accounting for

shock wave formation and propagation - Hydrodynamic components decoupled

treatment (Euler, Lagrange) DYTRAN/PISCES, AUTODYN, LS-DYNA,

OURANOS, HEMP, ABAQUS, SOFIA(EMI), CTH, PAM-SHOCKS…

Unclassified Hydrocodes elements

Characteristic

Feb 201012

Unclassified Lethality Assessment Process

Hypervelocity tests

Gun Tests – single and dual stages Single stage powder gun –

- using adapted guns with powder

- Limited to low velocity

- Better for full scale Lethality tests Single stage Electrical or Electrothermal

(Plasma) Guns for higher velocities

Feb 2010

Unclassified Lethality Assessment Process

Hypervelocity ground test Two stage light gas gun - First stage with powder – compressing light gas (H, He) - Second stage – compressed light gas shooting a sabot with kill

vehicle toward target - Instrumentation (X-ray, Video, speed measuring devices) Constrains - Size and speed of Kill vehicle - Target limitations (static, size, explosive weight..) - Environmental conditions( Pressure, temperature) Solution – Scaling laws - Initiation formulae for HE (Energy, run to detonation, …) - Dimensional scaling for others

Unclassified Lethality Assessment Process

Two stages Light Gaz Gun

Feb 2010

Unclassified Lethality Assessment Process

Hypervelocity ground test Sled test

- Full scale kill vehicle accelerated toward

target/s, using multiple staged rocket motors,

on a sled

- Instrumentation documenting interception Characteristics

- Long sled required to achieve required speed

(many miles)

- High cost and long schedule

- Environmental conditions (Altitude)

Unclassified Lethality Assessment Process

Sled Test 4/30/2003 - HOLLOMAN AIR FORCE BASE, N.M. (AFPN)

-- A 192-pound, fully instrumented Missile Defense Agency payload traveled a little more than three miles in 6.04 seconds April 29, validating Holloman's high-speed test track hypersonic upgrades and setting a world land speed record.

Air Force Materiel Command experts conducted the test in New Mexico's Tularosa Basin where Air Force officials witnessed a four-stage, rail-bound rocket sled reach Mach 8.5 or 6,416 mph. That equates to more than 31 football fields per second.

Feb 2010

Unclassified Lethality Assessment Process

Flight Tests

Flight tests with emphasis on Lethality are performed in Instrumented Missile test ranges

Appropriate Instrumented Targets (colors, Hit Grid for example) with relevant payload and Interceptors (Telemetry, Transponders, colors, TRS…) participate in this Interception Test

An elaborated test plan with emphasis on Lethality and kill assessment correlated with ground tests results is needed including flight and configuration parameters

Feb 2010

Unclassified Lethality Assessment Process

Flight Tests

Number of flight test is derived from configurations, operational research, confidence level required for SSPk assessment and ground test results

Appropriate Electromagnetic(Radars), telemetry stations, TRS and Optical Cameras in various wavelength (Visual, IR, NIR, UV…) spread according to geometry of test

Instrumented Aircraft in appropriate locations Data Analysis adapted to Kill Assessment

Feb. 2010

Unclassified Lethality Assessment Process

Kill Assessment

Kill is assessed from the Ground and Airborne Instrumentation

The Instrumentation are selected according to the threat payload

Emphasis on the estimation of the various behavior of the SSPk components

Miss distance, Hit location and post hit debris and effects are of main concern

Feb 2010

Feb 2010

Unclassified Assessing the kill & typing

Radars (Multiple bands) - Residual and debris characterization via RCS, ballistic coefficient and mapping - Doppler Range Gates filling – debris residuals expansion and density - Aerosol cloud mapping – SHF and mm Wave radar - Droplet Characterization – using multiple bands SHF/mm Wave radars

Feb 2010

Unclassified Assessing the kill & typing

Optics (Ground and Airborne Vis. And IR) - Fireballs characterization for KA - Hot Clouds characterization for Typing - Aerosol cloud signature size/shape and characterization for KA and Typing (with Active and Passive optics at various Wavelength) - Threat and residual signature and Imaging

for KA and typing

Unclassified Lethality Assessment Process

Summary and Conclusion

Lethality assessment of Kill vehicle is a studious, long and risky process

Shortcuts could lead to GIGO Various Lethality and Kill assessment

definitions were proposed An process starting from the design

phase till flight test validation was described

Feb 2010