3537 報1 國發會(m)

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2017IMF 3.1% 3.4%IHS 2

% ( )IMF201610GI20171 *GI1. IMF, World Economic Outlook, Jan. 16, 2017 2. IHS Global Insight Inc., World Overview, Feb. 15, 2017IMFIHS Global Insight2016201720162017 3.1 (3.1)3.4 (3.4)2.5 (2.5)2.9 (2.8)1.6 (1.6)1.9 (1.8)1.7 (1.7)1.9 (1.9)1.6 (1.6)2.3 (2.2)1.6 (1.6)2.3 (2.3)1.7 (1.7)1.6 (1.5)1.7 (1.7)1.6 (1.5)0.9 (0.5)0.8 (0.6)1.0 (1.0)1.1 (1.1)*4.1 (4.2)4.5 (4.6)3.8 (3.8)4.4 (4.4)6.7 (6.6)6.5 (6.2)6.7 (6.7)6.5 (6.5)

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1 PMI 56.0 5 CPI 2.5% 5 Fed 2 14 IMFIHS1.6%2.3%

PMIPMI 5050(ISM)%%2016 2017 CPI CPI

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2 PMI 55.2 55.51 CPI 1.8%IHS1.6% 1.7%PMI 50502 MarkitPMI2016 2017% CPI 2016 2017

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2016 2017

2 PMI 53.5 2014 3 IMF 1.3 % 1.5 % 2017 1 2018PMI 50502MarkitPMI 2015 2016CPI %CPI

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20166.7%4GDP6.8%IMF2017 6.5%0.3IMF 2017 1 %YOY%

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2016 11 OPEC 2017 1 6 57.1 18 55 56 CRB 2 1 17 195.1414191195EIA, Short-term Energy Outlook, Feb. 7, 2017EIA/2016 2017(CRB)CIP 1967=100201620172018WTI43.3353.4656.18Brent43.7454.5457.18

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TPPNAFTA7%%

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Fed23Hard Brexit

TPPNAFTA

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2017 1.92% 4.01% 1.75% 0.34% 1.80%20162017GDP1.501.92 (1.87) 2.161.67 (1.61) 2.141.75 (1.74) 3.050.34 (0.06) 2.711.80 (1.88) ----2.124.01 (3.83) (-) 3.394.07 (3.85)

%1. SAAR2. ( ) 2016 11 22016YoY1.89-0.38 20171.470.452017215% GDP YoY

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2017 1.75%f2017215

%2.14%1.75%% 2016 2017

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pfr20172152017 1.80 % 1.85% 1.21% 2.42%()201727 %%20162.71 3.12 1.72 -1.93 Q1-0.12 0.22 -1.70 -5.07 Q20.16 1.16 -5.09-2.50Q3(r)3.663.99 4.65-6.39Q4 (p)6.81 7.24 6.54 2.322017 (f)1.801.851.212.42Q1(f)3.083.191.992.77Q2(f)2.832.882.313.03Q3(f)1.061.000.962.31Q4(f)0.490.420.251.97

2016 2017

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2017 4.01%f2017215%%(8.50%)(-1.73%)(4.01%)(2.12%)

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2016 12 3.79% 0.08 0.08 16 2016 3.92% 2015 0.14 1 11 37,305 0.03% 1-11 40,00038,00034,0000 36,000% 2015 2016

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2017 1.08%2017 1 CPI 2.25% 6.41%1 CPI 1.61%2017 1 CPI 201728 + 2.25%2014 2015 2016 %

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2016 12 6 2 28 10 20171 26

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2016 12 2017 1 50.0%2017 1 2 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017(2006 100) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2017

45.661.5(%)

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2017 1.5%~2.1%[ ]( )201620171234 [2017.2.15]1.50 (1.40)1.92 (1.87)2.452.291.511.50 [2017.1.25] - (1.17)1.78 (1.65)2.102.001.551.50[2016.12.28]1.37 (1.1)1.8 (1.8)2.021.691.631.87 [2016.12.26] - (0.8)1.5 (1.2)---- [2016.12.22]1.23 (0.52)1.682.251.921.481.14 [2016.12.20]1.29 (1.03)1.73 (1.81)2.401.831.401.34 [2016.12.15]1.26 (0.92)1.741.591.631.731.95Global Insight [2017.2.15]1.4 (1.2)1.7 (1.7)1.81.81.61.7ADB [2016.12.13]1.2 (0.9)1.6 (1.5)----IMF [2016.10.4]1.0 (1.5)1.7 (2.2)---- [2017.2.6]1.4 (1.0)2.1 (2.1)2.0--- [2017.1.18]-2.0---- [2016.12.15]1.1 (0.7)1.6 (1.4)----

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2016 IMF 2017 2016 3.1% 3.4% 4 6 1.5%~2.1% 2.0~2.5%

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