Cooperative Institute of Climate Studies University of Maryland 2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465 Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876 http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics Institute Director: Professor Antonio J. Busalacchi Tel: (301) 405-5599 E-Mail: [email protected] VALIDATION RESULTS FOR DAILY VALIDATION RESULTS FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER SOUTH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER SOUTH AMERICA AMERICA Daniel Vila + – Ralph Ferraro – Phil Arkin – Beth Ebert – Wei Shi and Viviane Silva + CICS/ESSIC - UMCP 3 rd International Precipitation Working Group Workshop, Melbourne, Australia
3 rd International Precipitation Working Group Workshop, Melbourne, Australia
Jan 06, 2016
VALIDATION RESULTS FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER SOUTH AMERICA Daniel Vila + – Ralph Ferraro – Phil Arkin – Beth Ebert – Wei Shi and Viviane Silva + CICS/ESSIC - UMCP. 3 rd International Precipitation Working Group Workshop, Melbourne, Australia. OUTLINES - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
VALIDATION RESULTS FOR DAILY VALIDATION RESULTS FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER SOUTH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER SOUTH AMERICAAMERICA
Daniel Vila+ – Ralph Ferraro – Phil Arkin – Beth Ebert – Wei Shi and Viviane Silva
+CICS/ESSIC - UMCP
3rd International Precipitation Working Group Workshop, Melbourne, Australia
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
OUTLINESOUTLINES
• Something about rainfall climatology of South America
• Data source of raingauge data – Frequency of observation and gridding methodology.
• Statistics Parameters - Results
• Case Studies
• Summary and conclusions
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
OUTLINESOUTLINES
• Something about rainfall climatology of South America
• Data source of raingauge data – Frequency of observation and gridding methodology.
• Statistics Parameters - Results
• Case Studies
• Summary and conclusions
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
Source: Willmott and Matsuura – Center for Climatic Research –
Dept. of Geography – U. of Delaware
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
OUTLINESOUTLINES
• Something about rainfall climatology of South America
• Data source of raingauge data – Frequency of observation and gridding methodology.
• Statistics Parameters - Results
• Case Studies
• Summary and conclusions
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
South American Precipitation Gridded AnalysisSouth American Precipitation Gridded Analysis
The CPC Realtime Analysis is prepared using GTS daily reports and additional reports provided by CPTEC, INMET, FUNCEME and SIMEPAR of Brazil and INAMHI of Ecuador.
Resolution: 1.0 degree x 1.0 degree
Domain: 60 S - 15 N, 30 W - 90 W
Window: Day 1 analysis is valid for the window from 12Z on day 0 to 12Z on day 1.
Analysis Scheme: Modified Cressman (1959) Scheme (Glahn et al. 1985; Charba et al. 1992). Minimum stations for analysis: 500 for precipitation. If the number of stations is less than the minimum, then the analysis is not performed for that day.
Quality Control:A. Duplicate Station CheckB. Data Check (buddy check, standard deviation check against climatology).
Note:The primary sources of daily precipitation data for Brazil used in the historical gridded precipitation analyses (2005 version) are: a) Agencia Nacional de Energia Eletrica (National Agency for Electrical Energy ANEEL) (1960-1997), b) Agencia Nacional de Aguas (National Water Agency ANA) (1948-2004), c) Fundacao Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hidricos (Meteorology and Hydrologic Resources Foundation of Ceara (FUNCEME) (1973-2004), d) Superintendencia do Desenvolvimento do Nordeste (Superintendence for Development of the Northeast) (SUDENE) (1948-1998), e) Departamento de Aguas e Energia Eletrica do Estado de Sao Paulo (Department of Water and Electrical Energy of Sao Paulo DAEE) (1948-1997) in collaboration with the Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos (Brazilian Weather Forecast and Climate Studies) (CPTEC), and f) Technological Institute of Parana (SIMEPAR) (1997-2004).
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
Frequency (in %) of occurrence for a given cell to be considered in the validation process.
1 rain gauge per cell
2 rain gauges per cell
3 rain gauges per cell
REAL TIME REPORTS FREQUENCYREAL TIME REPORTS FREQUENCY
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
20060509 20060608 20060708 20060807 20060906
mm
/day
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
observed # of cells
Frequency (in %) of occurrence for a given cell to be considered in the validation process. Threshold value: 1 rain gauge per cell (1x1 degree)
Time series of the number of grid cells considered in this validation process for each day considering 1 rain gauge per cell. The mean observed precipitation is also plotted.
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
OUTLINESOUTLINES
• Something about rainfall climatology of South America
• Data source of raingauge data – Frequency of observation and gridding methodology.
• Statistics Parameters - Results
• Case Studies
• Summary and conclusions
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
ALGORITHMS ALGORITHMS
• PMWPMW
• MWCOMB – CPC
• AMSU – NESDIS
• MODELS
• GFS – NCEP
• NOGAPS – NRL
• ETA -UMD
• IRIR
• HYDROESTIMATOR – Brazilian version
• BLENDED (IR + PWM)BLENDED (IR + PWM)
• 3B40RT - 3B41RT – 3B42RT – NASA
• CMORPH – CPC
• PMW and GEO – NRL
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
0
5
10
15
20
25
20060509 20060608 20060708 20060807 20060906
mm
/day
0
50
100
150
200
250
observed # of cells
0
5
10
15
20
25
20060509 20060608 20060708 20060807 20060906
mm
/day
0
50
100
150
200
250
observed # of cells
I
II
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
0
5
10
15
20
25
20060509 20060608 20060708 20060807 20060906
mm
/day
0
50
100
150
200
observed estimated CMORPH # of cells
REGION IREGION I
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
20060509 20060608 20060708 20060807 20060906
bias
(m
m/d
ay)
amsu hydroestimator gfs cmorph
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
REGION IREGION I
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
20060509 20060608 20060708 20060807 20060906
Max
imum
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (m
m/d
ay)
cmorph gfs amsu hydroestimator observed
02468
101214161820
20060509 20060608 20060708 20060807 20060906
RM
SE
(m
m/d
ay)
cmorph gfs amsu hydroestimator
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
REGION IREGION IR2 = 0.847
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25
Observed
Est
imat
ed
3b42RT
R2 = 0.8587
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25
Observed
Est
imat
ed
PMW
R2 = 0.8512
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25
Observed
Est
imat
ed
GFS
R2 = 0.8998
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25
Observed
Est
imat
ed
CMORPH
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
South America vs. AustraliaSouth America vs. Australia
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0.1 1 2 5 10 20 50
Rain Threshold (mm/day)
Fal
se A
larm
Rat
io
HYDROE CMORPH AMSU GFS
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.1 1 2 5 10 20
Rain Threshold (mm/day)
Eq
uit
able
Th
reat
Sco
re
HYDROE CMORPH AMSU GFS
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
0.1 1 2 5 10 20
Rain Threshold (mm/day)
Bia
s S
core
HYDROE CMORPH AMSU GFS
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0.1 1 2 5 10 20
Rain Threshold (mm/day)
Pro
bab
ility
of
Det
ecti
on
HYDROE CMORPH AMSU GFS
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
REGION REGION IIII
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
20060509 20060608 20060708 20060807 20060906
mm
/day
0
50
100
150
200
250
observed estimated # of cells
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
20060509 20060608 20060708 20060807 20060906
bias
(m
m/d
ay)
amsu hydroestimator gfs cmorph
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
REGION REGION IIII
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
20060509 20060608 20060708 20060807 20060906
Max
imum
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (m
m/d
ay)
cmorph gfs amsu hydroestimator
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
20060509 20060608 20060708 20060807 20060906
RM
SE
(m
m/d
ay)
cmorph gfs amsu hydroestimator
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
REGION REGION IIII
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
REGION REGION IIII
R2 = 0.3456
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 2 4 6 8 10
Observed
Est
imat
ed
3b42RT
R2 = 0.3938
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 2 4 6 8 10
Observed
Est
imat
ed
PMW
R2 = 0.1996
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 2 4 6 8 10
Observed
Est
imat
ed
GFS
R2 = 0.3348
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 2 4 6 8 10
Observed
Est
imat
ed
CMORPH
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
REGION REGION IIII
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0.1 1 2 5 10 20
Rain Threshold (mm/day)
Bia
s S
core
HYDROE CMORPH AMSU GFS
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0.1 1 2 5 10 20
Rain Threshold (mm/day)
Pro
bab
ility
of
Det
ecti
on
HYDROE CMORPH AMSU GFS
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0.1 1 2 5 10 20 50
Rain Threshold (mm/day)
Fal
se A
larm
Rat
io
HYDROE CMORPH AMSU GFS
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.1 1 2 5 10 20
Rain Threshold (mm/day)
Eq
uit
able
Th
reat
Sco
re
HYDROE CMORPH AMSU GFS
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
OUTLINESOUTLINES
• Something about rainfall climatology of South America
• Data source of raingauge data – Frequency of observation and gridding methodology.
• Statistics Parameters - Results
• Case Studies
• Summary and conclusions
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONSSUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
• A new real-time verification page for South America is working since May 2006
• New algorithms are welcome!!!
• Rain gauge data over some regions of South America is still a big issue…→ Satellite rainfall estimation is very useful!! → but… how can users decide which algorithm works better for a given region???
• Nevertheless, real time satellite rainfall estimation data are used for many users in different regions for different purposes (agriculture, hydrology, etc.) and internet sites with this kind of information (i.e. CPTEC site) became very popular among weather enthusiast and stakeholders.
• More validation work and algorithm development must be done in order to ‘regionalize’ uncertainties and to deal with the new challenges of satellite rainfall retrieval (snow, warm clouds, etc.)
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONSSUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
• A new real-time verification page for South America is working since May 2006
• New algorithms are welcome!!!
• Rain gauge data over some regions of South America is still a big issue…→ Satellite rainfall estimation is very useful!! → but… how can users decide which algorithm works better for a given region???
• Nevertheless, real time satellite rainfall estimation data are used for many users in different regions for different purposes (agriculture, hydrology, etc.) and internet sites with this kind of information (i.e. CPTEC site) became very popular among weather enthusiast and stakeholders.
• More validation work and algorithm development must be done in order to ‘regionalize’ uncertainties and to deal with the new challenges of satellite rainfall retrieval (snow, warm clouds, etc.)
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONSSUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
• A new real-time verification page for South America is working since May 2006
• New algorithms are welcome!!!
• Rain gauge data over some regions of South America is still a big issue… Satellite rainfall estimation is very useful!! but… how can users decide which algorithm works better for a given region???
• Nevertheless, real time satellite rainfall estimation data are used for many users in different regions for different purposes (agriculture, hydrology, etc.) and internet sites with this kind of information (i.e. CPTEC site) became very popular among weather enthusiast and stakeholders.
• More validation work and algorithm development must be done in order to ‘regionalize’ uncertainties and to deal with the new challenges of satellite rainfall retrieval (snow, warm clouds, etc.)
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONSSUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
• A new real-time verification page for South America is working since May 2006
• New algorithms are welcome!!!
• Rain gauge data over some regions of South America is still a big issue…→ Satellite rainfall estimation is very useful!! → but… how can users decide which algorithm works better for a given region???
• Nevertheless, real time satellite rainfall estimation data are used for many users in different regions for different purposes (agriculture, hydrology, etc.) and internet sites with this kind of information (i.e. CPTEC site) became very popular among weather enthusiasts and stakeholders.
• More validation work and algorithm development must be done in order to ‘regionalize’ uncertainties and to deal with the new challenges of satellite rainfall retrieval (snow, warm clouds, etc.)
Cooperative Institute of Climate StudiesUniversity of Maryland2207 Computer & Spaces Sciences Bldg. College Park, MD 20742-2465Tel: (301) 405-0050 Fax: (301) 314-1876http://www.essic.umd.edu/cics
Institute Director:Professor Antonio J. BusalacchiTel: (301) 405-5599E-Mail: [email protected]
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONSSUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
• A new real-time verification page for South America is working since May 2006
• New algorithms are welcome!!!
• Rain gauge data over some regions of South America is still a big issue…→ Satellite rainfall estimation is very useful!! → but… how can users decide which algorithm works better for a given region???
• Nevertheless, real time satellite rainfall estimation data are used for many users in different regions for different purposes (agriculture, hydrology, etc.) and internet sites with this kind of information (i.e. CPTEC site) became very popular among weather enthusiast and stakeholders.
• More validation work and algorithm development must be done in order to know uncertainties and to deal with the new challenges of satellite rainfall retrieval.
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