3 rd Annual WRF Users Workshop

3rd Annual WRF Users Workshop

Promote closer ties between research and operations

Develop an advanced mesoscale forecast and assimilation system

Design Priorities:

1-10 km horizontal grids

Portable and efficient on parallel computers

Advanced data assimilation and model physics

Well suited for a broad range of applications

Community model with direct path to operations

Overall WRF Goals:

WRF Project Collaborators Signatory Partners:

– NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division– NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction– NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory– Air Force Weather Agency– Federal Aviation Administration– Navy NRL Marine Meteorology Division

Additional Collaborators:– OU Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms– Department of Defense HPCMO

– NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory– NASA GSFC Atmospheric Sciences Division– NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory– EPA Atmospheric Modeling Division– University Community

WRF Development Teams

Numerics and Software

(J. Klemp)

Data Assimilation (T. Schlatter)

Analysis and Validation

(K. Droegemeier)

Community Involvement

(W. Kuo)

Operational Implementation

(G. DiMego)

Data Handling and Archive (G. DiMego)

Regional Climate Modeling

(proposed)

Workshops, Distribution, and Support

(J. Dudhia)

Model Physics (J. Brown)

Atmospheric Chemistry (P. Hess)

Land Surface Models

(J. Wegiel)

Operational Requirements

(G. DiMego)

Operational Forecaster

Training (T. Spangler)

Ensemble Forecasting

(D. Stensrud)

Analysis and Visualization

(M. Stoelinga)

Model Testing and Verification

(C. Davis)

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Standard Initialization (J. McGinley)

3-D Var (J. Derber)

4-D Data Assimilation (D. Barker)

Dynamic Model Numerics

(W. Skamarock)

Software Architecture,

Standards, and Implementation (J. Michalakes)

24 October 2001 WRF forecast– 12 km Grid

(Michalakes, 2001)

24h WRF forecast valid 00Z 25 October 2001

WRF vertically integrated cloud water Satellite cloud image

25 Oct 18:30 UTC24 Oct 18:30 UTC

25 Oct 00 UTC 25 Oct 12 UTC 26 Oct 00 UTC24 Oct 12 UTC

WRF 12 km grid – Coastally Trapped Disturbance

Registered WRF Users (6/21/02)

WRF Principal Partners 75

NCAR 33 NCEP 16 FSL 13 OU/CAPS 4 AFWA 9

U.S. Universities 141U.S. Government Labs 91Private Sector 78

Foreign 342 ----

Total 727

WRF Web site: http://wrf-model.org

Development Task 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005-08

Basic WRF model (limited physics, standard initialization)

Implementation and evaluation of alternative prototypes

Model physics Simple Research suite Advanced

Research quality NWP version of WRF

3D-Var assimilation systemBasic Research Advanced

4D-Var assimilation system, ensemble techniques

Basic Advanced

Testing for operational use at NCEP & AFWA

Diagnosis of operational performance, refinements

Release and support to community Operational deployment

Projected Timeline for WRF Project

24 h Forecast Precipitation, Valid 12Z 12 May 02

10 km ETA 22 km WRF

10 km WRF 8 km NHM

24 h RFC Analysis

1 10 100 km

Cumulus ParameterizationResolved Convection

LES PBL Parameterization

Two Stream Radiation3-D Radiation

Model Physics in High Resolution NWP

Physics“No Man’s Land”

Key Scientific Questions for Storm-Scale NWP

What is the predictability of storm-scale events, and will resolution of fine-scale details enhance or reduce their prediction?

What observations are most critical, and can high-resolution data (e.g. WSR-88D) from national networks be used to initialize NWP models in real time?

What physics is required, and do we understand it well enough for practical application?

How can ensembles be utilized for storm-scale prediction? What are the most useful verification techniques for storm and

mesoscale forecasts? What networking and computational infrastructures are needed to

support high-resolution NWP? How can useful decision making information be generated from

forecast model output?