-
JANUARY 1940 SURVEY OF CUEEENT BUSINESS
Business Situation SummarizedBUSINESS did not undergo marked
change in De-cember from the position prevailing at the end
ofNovember, after allowance for the divergence in theusual seasonal
movements between retail trade and in-dustrial production. The very
substantial rise in con-sumer purchasing power in recent months of
expandedactivity had assured the increase in retail sales over
ayear ago that was realized. The irregularity in storesales which
developed over the November month-endwas not significant, as higher
pay rolls, larger farm in-come, and a year-end flow of dividends
much in excessof that in 1938 brought trade through retail channels
toa strong close for the year.
On the whole, industrial production was maintainedat a high rate
during the month. There were seasonaldeclines in some industries
but in total the let-up wasprobably less than usual for December.
Steel ingotproduction, which in the spectacular autumn risereached
the practical limits of capacity by the end ofNovember, tended to
decline as the volume of neworders fell to a figure more in line
with current utiliza-tion. Pressure for delivery of steel has
decreased fol-lowing the announcement that prices for the first
quarterof 1940 would be about the same as those listed for thepast
several months. By the third week of Decemberthe rate of ingot
production was off to 90 percent ofcapacity, against 94 percent at
the end of November.This recession is not indicative of a general
decline sincethe rate of steel production was above the
operatingrate for the steel-consuming industries generally. Themore
highly fabricated lines of steel manufacture are notsubject to such
quick adjustments as those which char-acterize ingot production,
and no signs of slackeningactivity have appeared among them as yet.
In someof the metal industries incoming business
remainedcomparatively high during November; e. g., orders re-ceived
by metal trade concerns in Massachusetts wereas large as in
September, though well below the Octobervolume. New orders in the
other major industriesreported for this State were much smaller in
Novemberthan in September.
Activity has been sustained in machine tool,
aircraft,shipbuilding, and electrical equipment
manufacturing.Automobile assemblies were stepped up in December
asChrysler plants again came into production. Totalassemblies rose
to about 440,000 units, the highest totalsince the middle of 1937.
This represented a largervolume than retail sales plus exports, as
stocking ofdealers continued. Domestic retail sales of
passengercars in November amounted to 257,000 compared with241,000
in November 1938.
Output of Consumers' Goods Maintained.
In the industries manufacturing consumers' goods,operations
continued high in December. Some down-ward adjustments occurred,
but these were neitherlarge nor widespread. November figures show
theextent to which the operations of these industries werepushed by
the September-October buying. Output ofcotton textile mills,
already high in October, increasedfurther in November. While some
increase in the pur-chasing of textiles occurred in the middle of
December,following the rise in raw cotton prices, the mills
havebeen operating at a rate above the volume of incomingbusiness
for some time. Woolen mills in Novemberalso operated at a very high
rate.
The extent of the rise over a year ago in a number ofimportant
areas of the economy is indicated by thecomparisons presented in
figure 2. The rise in durablegoods manufacturesstill relatively
depressed towardthe end of 1938is outstanding, as is the increase
ofabout one-fifth in the volume of freight moved. Thegeneral
advance in production and distribution broughtthe rise in the
national income payment total to 6 per-cent. The price data given
show that price changeswere not an important factor in the
magnitude of thechange in dollar figures, though actual and
anticipatedprice movements did have an important influence onthe
volume of purchasing and sales during the finalthird of the
year.
Estimates of the dollar sales of service and limitedfunction
wholesalers prepared by the Bureau of Foreignand Domestic Commerce
show a sharply increasedrelative gain over 1938 in the final
quarter of the year.Moderate advance in the first half gave way to
a widerincrease for the third quarter, but in the final 3
monthssales ran well over 10 percent in excess of the finalquarter
of 1938 which was, it will be recalled, a periodof improving trade.
For the year 1939, the percentageincrease in sales was 9 percent,
the total rising from19,023 million dollars in 1938 to 20,700
million dollarsin 1939. The more important increases were in
suchlines as electrical goods, metals and metal work, lumberand
construction material, jewelry and optical goods,machinery,
automobiles, and furniture. Sales of foodand farm products, which
make up an important partof the total, showed only moderate
increases as priceswere generally lower throughout the year.
Pricechanges were not a factor in the larger annual sales totalfor
this group of merchants, since they averaged lowerin 1939 than in
1938. It was not until the last quarterof the year that average
wholesale prices moved higherthan a year ago.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal
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January 1940
-
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS JANUARY 1940Income Payments
Higher.
Reference to the chart on page 3 will reveal theunusual rise in
income payments that has occurredduring the few months subsequent
to the outbreak ofwar in Europe. The reaction in domestic markets
tothis eventsuperimposed as it was on a rising trend ofdomestic
economic activitybrought a rise in the indexof income payments to
88.8 in November (1929 = 100)from the August figure of 85.4. The
advance in thisindex of more than 1 point a month for the past
3months means an increase in income payments on anannual basis from
69.7 billion dollars at the Augustrate to 72.5 billion dollars at
the November rate.Some further increase in income payments
probablyresulted from December business; for the year 1939 a
Farmers' incomes rose sharply after the prices ofagricultural
products advanced in September. Theimprovement of the past 4 months
has raised the esti-mated total of cash farm income for the year
1939 to$7,625,000,000, virtually the same as in the precedingyear.
With Government payments of $675,000,000estimated to be almost
$200,000,000 larger than in 1938,the total income of farmers of
$8,300,000,000 frommarketings and Government payments is expected
tobe about 2.5 percent higher than in 1938.
A marked rise in dividends, particularly in the finalmonth of
the year, has been an important factor inincreasing the flow of
income to individuals. It isestimated on the basis of data now
available that divi-dends in 1939 were at least half a billion
dollars larger
PRODUCTIONc
OTAL MANUFACTURING'RODUCTION*
DURABLE PRODUCTS
PERCENT) 20 4 0 60
3MEamSTEEL INGOTS H B H H B H B H H B i
PLATE GLASS
LUMBER
NONDURABLE PRODUCTS
PAPER.8OARD PRODUCTION
COTTON CONSUMPTION
SHOE PRODUCTION
BOH
mm*
wmam
i
* Federal Reserve Indexes
INCOME AND DISTRIBUTION0 10 20 30
TOTAL INCOME PAYMENTS
SALARIES & WAGES
CASH FARM INCOME.*
FREIGHT CAR LOADINGS
WHOLESALE SALES
TOTAL RETAIL SALES
GENERAL MERCHANDISE
CONSUMERS DURABLE GOODS
* Excludes Government Pay/nenh
PERCENT0 t 5 +10
PRICES-5
COST OF LIVING
RETAIL FOOD PRICES
WHOLESALE COMMODITYPRICES
ALL COMMODITIES
FARM PRODUCTS
FOODS
INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES*
FINISHED PRODUCTS
RAW a SEMI-FINISHED
* federal Reserve Classification; excludes all foods 3.
feedsD.D. 39-343
1
W////A
'V///////////Ai
Figure 2.Industrial Production, Income and Distribution, and
PricesPercentage Change November 1939 from November 1938.
NOTE.All series shown on this chart are those regularly
published in the Survey except wholesale and retail sales which are
estimates of the U. S. Department of Com-merce and prices of
industrial commodities which are compiled by the Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System from data of the U. S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics.
total of almost 70 billion dollars is indicated, as com-pared
with 66.3 billion dollars in 1938 and 72.4 billiondollars in
1937.
Income payments in November were 310 milliondollars larger than
a year ago, an increase of nearly6 percent. In general, the
industrial sections of theNation have shown the greater improvement
over thesame month of last year. Although salaries and wagesas a
whole during November were only 6 percent abovethose of November
1938, aggregate pay rolls in thecommodity-producing industries were
208 million dol-lars or nearly 15 percent larger than a year ago.
Whilerepresenting less than one-quarter of all income pay-ments,
pay rolls in these important industries accountfor two-thirds of
the increase in total income overNovember 1938. Factory employment
in Novemberwas 11 percent higher than in 1938, and pay rolls
wereone-fifth larger. In contrast, the governmental con-tribution
to employee's income was nearly 10 percentless than November of
last year, reflecting the lowerlevel of work-relief wages during
1939.
than the 1938 figure of 3.7 billion dollars, representingan
increase of 14 percent. The marked increase individends relative to
the increases in other types ofincomes reflects partly the more
variable character ofthis type of income and partly the
concentration of thepresent recovery in those industrial branches
(notablymanufacturing) where share capital represents animportant
factor of production. Enlarged dividendsreflect the substantial
expansion in business profitsthat has occurred in the fourth
quarter of 1939? Dataare not available at this time to compute the
actualincrease in current profits, but recent months
haveundoubtedly produced a volume of earnings which arenot far
removed from the results of early 1937.Financial Markets
As in November, domestic and international financialmarkets were
relatively quiet, aside from the drop inquotations of Finnish bonds
which followed the attackof the U. S. S. R. on Finland. Prices of
stocks andcorporate bonds on the whole did not show significantor
material changes. Corporate security flotations on
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January 1940
-
JANUARY 1940 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
the open market achieved substantial volume after 3months of
stagnation. The issues were predominantlyutility refunding
operations; the amount of new capitalraised was small. That
business concerns have re-quired some additional funds is evidenced
by the trendof commercial loans; the amount outstanding
withreporting member banks has increased $400,000,000since August
to $4,400,000,000 in December.
As the 3rear ends the prospects for business in thefirst half of
1940 remain uncertain, though the level ofactivity is currently
well above that of the first quarterof 1939. Production in the
basic industries during thefinal quarter of 1939 has matched that
of the bestquarter of 1929. But with industrial activity notbeing
supported at present by a volume of incomingbusiness of
corresponding magnitude, some readjust-ment in productive activit}^
can hardly be avoided asthe backlogs of orders are reduced. Buying
policiesduring the fall rush were predicated largely upon cover-ing
requirements for some months ahead rather thanupon immediate needs.
As these commitments broughtcompany positions into line with their
raised expecta-tions regarding sales trends and inventory needs,
pur-chasing settled down to a replacement basis. Themere cessation
of inventory accumulation can onlyresult in some decline in
industrial activity unless a
prompt expansion in consumption, investment, orexport demand,
not now in evidence, should come in asan offsetting influence.
What is uncertain at this time is the magnitude andduration of
the reaction to come in the next few months.The fact that inventory
holdings have been and are stillbeing enlarged through previous
commitments is anunfavorable factor in the present situation. The
atti-tude taken toward these holdings may largely deter-mine the
extent of the readjustment. There are sev-eral factors on the
favorable side which militate againstliquidation. The advance in
prices, particularly retailprices, has not been as large as seemed
likely twomonths ago. Hence, an expanded volume of goodsshould
continue to be taken off the market by consum-ers. The prospects
for farm income have been strength-ened by the December rise in the
prices of a few agri-cultural staples, principally wheat and
cotton. Activ-ity in the construction industry has been well
main-tained during recent months, and a continuance of theexpansion
of 1939 into the spring of next year wouldprovide added stimulus to
the economic structure.Furthermore, there has been a sizable
increase in com-mitments for capital expenditures by business in
thepast 4 months and the activity created by it will befelt during
the first quarter of 1940.
MONTHLY BUSINESS INDEXES
Year and month
Monthly Incomepayments, ad-justed *
tcC8
1is
Monthly average,1929-100
Factory em-ployment
andpay rolls
I3
VMonthly av-erage, 1923-
25=100
Cash farmincome 2
Monthly av-erage, 1924-
29=100
Industrialproduction,adjusted'
Freight-carloadings,adjusted ]
Retail sales,value, ad-justed i
Monthly average, 1923-25= 100
s
IIisI1929-
31=100
Foreigntrade,value,
adjusted1
1&
1?c?3
ctio
es,v
2c6
is
Monthly average,1923-25=100
Monthlyaverage,1926=100
1929: November1932: November1933: November1936: November1937:
November1938:
NovemberDecember
1939:JanuaryFebruaryMarch _.AprilMay .June _.JulyAugust
_.SeptemberOctoberNovember
Monthly average, Januarythrough November:
1929193219331936193719381939
100.056.860.585.886.7
83.183.4
83.383.084.183.083.484.183.785.486.888.188.8
100.061.156.982.589.181.584.9
100.655.459.483.884.8
82.483.0
82.382.082.181.081.482.882.884.084.486.787.5
100.059.755.079.286.879.183.4
100.859.361.585.987.584.284.784.484.484.883.884.385.485.586.787.088.889.6
100.063.958.282.889.082.385.9
104.466.281.2
104. 4103.792.894.494.694.394.093.893.394.395.396.097.3
101.2103.4
106.566.472.898.3
109.689.396.2
104.943.657.394.493.384.487.183.786.087.685.585.086.584.489.793.8
101. 6101.8
111.347.149.584.6
104.177.189.6
109.044.560.588.584.578.072.568.551.057.555.060.059.063.071.092.596.078.5
102.942.948.873.680.069.568.4
93.039.551.577.573.569.568.0
67.560.064.064.565.060.062.571.079.072.574.0
110657211488103104
1019998929298101103111121
121657710411285104
1106370114851031041009796929197100104111121124
122637610411282103
1107582112109102109110110110959810410691114121124
116728210411698108
10256608271
69696967666062676970778082
108555874796270
1046866676461616262626161616262636263
105726765686162
1086467949189
87
1036662818779
132.528.553.0
151.089.0
100.092.591.096.088.079.579.079.080.576.583.593.7
102.6
151. 236.945.6
102.1111.363.88.7
10132425272
5867
5563706470706972727267
115363653736867
10532406169
5554
5549535361585757596573
115353761815058
10327485856
9696
8673696763636773737672
120282455606371
144.455.460.593.792.186.4
106.990.577.192.385.390.094.789.688.793.996. 594.5
140.665.2
3 61. 390.598.884.690.3
93.563.971.182.483.377.577.076.976.976.776.276.275.675.475.079.179.479.3
95.565.265.580.586.778.777.0
i Adjusted for seasonal variations; monthly averages, except
income payments, are based on unadjusted indexes.3 Average of 10
months, January, February, and April through November.
* From farm marketings.
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January 1940
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March 1940 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
The Business SituationFEBRUARY passed without any signs of an
expan-sion in the basic factors of demand which wouldbring a
near-term reversal in the business downturn.While characterized by
some unevenness among thevarious lines of manufacturing, the flow
of new ordersis still generally restricted and below the volume
ofproduction. Industrial output has declined sharplyduring the past
2 months and even with this reducedrate of activity, backlogs of
unfilled orders have beenlowered further. As* evidenced by retail
trade, con-sumption has eased off from the high December posi-tion.
The latest data available, as of the end of Jan-uary, show a
further substantial increase in inventories.
WEEKLY AV JAN - JULY 1939 * 100300
2 50WOOL YARNS-
-4A
v
t i l l
^ - W O O L
\
\ A7fif/?
1 1 1
CLOTH
\ , t 1 1 i i i I
r
A
i
V
1 1 i ! 1 1 1 1
VEEKLY AV. JAN-JULY 1939 = 100600
700
600
500
400
300
-ipo
100
0
1
1L COPPER
\ \
I/N1 1
h \ /\
Figure 2.New Orders for Selected Commodities, By Weeks,
1939-40
NOTE.Relatives have been computed from the weekly data
(quantity) withaverage weekly orders for the 30 weeks, January 1 to
July 29, 1939, as 100. The dataare substantially comparable for the
period covered, although slight variationsoccur in the number of
lumber mills reporting. Orders for wool yarn and woolcloth are
compiled by the National Association of Wool Manufacturers,
copperorders are sales of domestic producers as reported in the
American Metal Market,and sales of slab zinc are from the American
Zinc Institute.
The only major factor to resist the weakening tendencyin
business so far this year is export trade; foreignshipments on a
volume basisthat is, allowing forprice changeshave risen to
approximately the 1929level and current reports indicate a
continuance ofactive demand from abroad.
The declining flow of new orders in the late monthsof 1939 and
in January and February of this year isrevealed by the data charted
in figures 2 and 3. Thereduction in new business has been rather
general andit is the factor behind the decline in production
expe-rienced during the opening months of 1940. The revivalof
buying of copper and zinc in the latter half of Fed-ruary, a
typically sporadic purchasing move by con-sumers of these metals,
stood out in the generallysluggish purchasing of other
commodities.
The monthly series on manufacturers' orders for avariety of
industries reveal a similarity in the pur-chasing swings of the
past 6 months. More inclusivedata not available for plotting show
deviations fromthe general pattern in certain lines, though the
over-all picture thus far in 1940 is one of declining back-logs as
the inflow of new business has not kept pacewith production or
shipments. In some instancesfoundry equipment and the metal trades
in Massachu-setts among those shown in figure 3the flow of in-
2500
2000
1500
1000
5001922-250
200
150
100
50
STEELBARRELS
/ \/ >
/
i i i i24= 100
FOUNDRY
//
I I I !
THOUSANDS OF TONS700
600
500
400
300
PAPERBOARD
AA/ \j \
i i i i
\\
1
!
* - ^ l l ~~m
1
MALLEABLECASTINGS
THOUSANDS OF TONSi ioo
METAL TRADES INMASSACHUSETTS
1926 = 1001 175
TEXTILE MILLS INMASSACHUSETTS
150
125
100
751926 = 100
1250
1 1JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC J A N FEB.
1939 1940
200
150
100
50AUG SEPT. OCT. NOV DEC. JAN . FEB.
1939 1940D D 4-O - 85
Figure 3.New Orders Received by Selected Manufacturing
Industries,1939-40.
NOTE.The indexes of new orders (value) received by textile mills
and metaltrades in Massachusetts are compiled by the Associated
Industries of Massachusetts.The other series are those regularly
shown in the Survey of Current Business andrepresent quantity,
except the indexes for "Foundry Equipment" which are on avalue
basis.
coming business compared favorably with the pre-warlevel.
Machine tools and aircraft continue in anexceptionally favorable
position both as regards neworders and the current backlog. Foreign
businessrepresents a significant part of unfilled orders in both
ofthese industries.Material Prices Reflect Weak Business Trend.
Contraction of industrial purchasing has had as acorollary the
weakening in the prices of raw materials.The February index of 16
basic industrial raw com-modities recently made available by the
Departmentof Labor averaged about 116 (August 1939 = 100)
ascompared with the 1939 peak of 129; thus more than
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SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS March 1940
one-third of the post-August price rise in these com-modities
has been canceled. In the main, the wholesaleprice situation has
been one reflecting the decline inbusiness activity, though some
commodities haverecently risen in price because of special factors.
Tinquotations, for example, rose slightly after the loweringof the
export quota, and foreign sales were a con-tributing factor in the
late February increase of copperprices.
On the average, prices of farm products and foodseased off
during January and February, though someimportant commodities moved
against the generaltrend. Wheat prices, which during January had
lostsome of the previous advance, again moved upwardin February to
about the December peak under the in-fluence of supply factors.
Cotton prices substantiallymaintained the December gains, supported
as they wereby the sustained high level of domestic cotton
consump-tion and the marked contraseasonal expansion inexports
after December.Sharp Decline in Production.
The contraction during January and February inindustrial output
was contrary to the seasonal expecta-tion. The Federal Reserve
adjusted index of industrialproduction dropped from the December
peak of 128(1923-25 = 100) to 119 for January, and a further
de-cline to about 109 is indicated by preliminary data forFebruary.
Roughly half of the 19-point reduction isto be explained by the
actual decrease in production and
the other half arises from the seasonal adjustment factor.The
pace of the decline in this adjusted index of in-dustrial
production has been somewhat faster than therise subsequent to
August 1939. Production of steelingots, with a weight of one-fourth
in the Decemberindex, has declined at as rapid a rate as it was
raisedlast year; this change has been a major factor in thesharp
fluctuation of the production index over the past6 months.
Steel production dropped from about 85 percent ofcapacity in the
initial weeks of 1940 to around 65percent by the end of February.
The seasonally ad-justed rate of output was lowered more than
one-thirdfrom December to February. This precipitous declinewas not
typical of the durable goods generally; manyplants in these lines
held to a high rate of operationsduring January and February.
Machinery concernsremained fairly active. Producers of fabricated
steelproducts, according to the most recent employment andpay-roll
data for mid-January, have curtailed outputsince December.
Fabricators of nonferrous metalsalso reduced operations after
December though stillholding operations at a very high level.
Aircraft man-ufacturers continued to expand operations, and
inJanuary had doubled the number of employees as com-pared with a
year ago. Capacity operations for mostof the aircraft manufacturers
are assured for some time,and substantial additions to plant and
equipment arenow under way.
MONTHLY BUSINESS INDEXES
Year and month
1929: January1932: January1933: January1937: January1938:
JanuaryDecember
1939:JanuaryFebruaryM ar
chAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
1940:January
Monthly incomepayments, ad-justed i
pS3I
Monthly average,1929=100
97.871.058.486.2
98.668.256.286.5
82.983.4
83.383.084.183.083.484.183.785.486.888.088.589.7
89.4
98.568.254.683.4
79.383.0
82.382.082.181.081.482.882.884.084.586.687.387.8
87.0
83.384.7
84.484.484.883.884.385.485.586.787.088.889.590.1
89.7
Factory em-ployment
andpay rolls
iir3
Monthly av-erage, 1923-
25 = 100
104.271.8
107.3
93.094.4
94.694.394.093.893.394.395.395.997.5
101.2103.4104.6
104.0
103.854.040.394.6
75.387.1
83.786.087.685.585.086.584.489.793.8
101.6101.6103.6
98.1
Cash farmincome 2
1Monthly av-erage, 1924-
29 = 100
66.052.557.553.559.059.567.575.593.0
107.090.079.0
67.5
81.0
86.072.0
76.573.072.568.070.563.563.066.573.576.576.579.0
78.0
Industrialproduction,adjusted i
Freight-carloadings,adjusted 1
Jj
Retail sales,value, ad-justed i
Monthly average, 1923-25 = 100
1197285114
81104
101
9298101103111121124128
119
1207163115
76104
1009796929197100104111121124129
118
1167775111
108110
110nono959810410691114121124120
127
1086253
104 110806293
90
1929-31 = 100
138.545.541.0
129.5
65.092.5
91.096.088.079.579.079.080.576.583.593.7
102.8108.5
92 124.0
Foreigntrade,value,
adjusted ]
If
Monthly average,1923-25 = 100
126393157
7567
556370647070697272726791
95
113422974
5254
554953536158575759657377
74
120312263
5296
867369676363677373768386
75
142.480.661.1
103.4
89.3106.9
90.577.192.385.390.094.789.688.793.996.594.5
113.5
101.3 I
&
1
Monthlyaverage,1926 = 100
95.967.361.085.9
80.977.0
76.976.976.776.276.275.675.475.079.179.479.279.2
79.4
1 Adjusted for seasonal variations; monthly averages, except
income payments, are based on unadjusted indexes. - From farm
marketings.
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March 1940 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Automobile assemblies have been relatively highduring the first
2 months of 1940. There was someslackening in January, but seasonal
expansion wasagain in evidence in the latter part of February.
Pro-duction of new cars and trucks for February approxi-mated
400,000 units as compared with 303,000 in Feb-ruary of 1939.
Dealers' stocks of new cars have beenincreased to large totals by
the high rate of assembliesthis year. Retail sales trends in this
industry have beenstrong, in contrast with retail sales
generally.
Although production of nondurable goods has tendedtoward lower
levels, the change has not been so largeas in the case of the
industries producing primarydurable products. Cotton mills, which
have operatedat near capacity for half a year, did not curtail
outputuntil February. January consumption of raw cottonwas
practically at a record rate. Cotton mills havebeen cutting into
their unfilled orders for some time andthis was true of February
even with some curtailmentof output. Rayon deliveries though still
high moveddownward during January and February.
Shoe production, which had not participated to anymarked degree
in the 1939 spurt, failed to record theusual strong seasonal
increase in January; moreover,production for the month was only
slightly largerthan a year earlier, a much smaller increase than
forthe nondurable industries generally. Production inthe paper and
paperboard industries, after reachingrecord proportions during the
fourth quarter of 1939,was curtailed during January and
Februarys
In the petroleum industry the flow of crude oil in-creased
seasonally during February and, at a daily rateof about 3.7 million
barrels, w^ as roughly on a par withprevious record rates of
output. Nation-wide outputwas about 11 percent higher than in
February 1939.Production of the Illinois fields was up 150 percent
andaccounted for over 10 percent of the total as comparedwith less
than 5 percent a year earlier. The active rateof refinery
operations has taken off the enlarged flowof crude oil and there
has not been much change instocks of crude petroleum. Gasoline
stocks, however,have continued to rise to record figures. Thus far
thewar in Europe has not resulted in any significant in-crease in
exports of petroleum and petroleum products,aside from a marked
rise in shipments of lubricants.The disappearance of the German
market and restric-tion of civilian use in belligerent and some
neutralmarkets have been retarding factors in exports of petro-leum
products.
Bituminous coal production in February fell offafter the
increase in January, and output in the weekended March 2 was down
to 8.8 million tons as com-pared with about 10 million tons weekly
during January.With the reduced volume of coal output, loadings
ofthis commodity in February showed a contraseasonaldecline of
about one-seventh from the January dailyaverage.
Table 1.Weekly Indicators of
Indicator
Steel ingot produc-Paper production..Paperboard produc-
tion.Automobile assem-
blies.Bituminous coal
production.Electric power pro-
duction.Miscellaneous car-
loadings.
Unit
Percent of ca-pacity,
dodoThousands
Million tons__
Billion kw.-h..
Thousands
Dec.23,
1939
90.094.281
118
9.0
2.61269
Indus
Jan.13,
1940
86.187.874
111
10.02.59
261
Jtrial Activity, 1939-40
Week ended
Feb.10,
1940
71.7
88.271
96
9.9
2.52244
Feb.17,
1940
68.886.770
95
9.1
2,48241
Feb.24,
1940
67.186.669
9.1
8.8
2.46234
Mar.2,
1940
65.984.069
101
8.8
2.48256
4,1939
55.883.368
79
8.5
2.24233
In addition to the decline in coal traffic the move-ment of
miscellaneous freight dropped considerably inFebruary, a change
that reflected the general let-upin the movement of manufactured
goods. Loadingsof forest products failed to show the usual increase
inFebruary. The adjusted index of total freight trafficfor February
was about 5 percent lower than in eitherJanuary or December.
The construction industry enters the active springbuilding
season with a far smaller backlog of publicwork than in 1939 when
the tremendous awards underthe 1938 Public Works program were on
the books.Consequently stimulus from this source will be muchless
than 12 months earlier. Construction undertak-ings financed from
private funds have held at a highlevel but through February did not
show signs of anymajor expansion which might offset the
recessivetendencies in other sectors of the economy. Totalawards of
new construction contracts in the first 2months of 1940 were about
one-sixth below the com-parable 1939 dollar volume of contracts
placed in theareas surveyed by the F. W. Dodge Corporation. Allof
the reduction was in publicly financed projects;private work in the
total was slightly above the year-earlier awards.
Residential building contracts have been runningabout on a par
with year-earlier volumea positionthat is but moderately lower on a
seasonally correctedbasis than last summer. Private construction
otherthan residential has been somewhat higher than a yearago
though not showing signs of attaining any suchvolume as that in the
first half of 1937. As shown byfigure 4 the awards of contracts for
factory buildingdid not record major gains in the fourth quarter of
lastyear and there are few indications of any major increasein this
field.
Income Payments Falling Off.It is indicative of the broad
character of the business
contraction that the flow of income payments wasreduced as early
as January. The decline in this slow-moving index was 0.3 point in
January on a seasonallyadjusted basis, with the figure for that
month 89.4
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6 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS March 1940(1929 = 100). Since the
actual decline in industrialoutput was more rapid in February than
in January,there is little doubt that a more sizable decrease in
theincome-payments index will be shown by the Februaryfigures.
Nevertheless, the flow of income is still rela-tively high; in
January, for example, income paymentswere made at an annual rate of
about 73 billion dollars,compared with the 1939 total of under 70
billion dol-lars and with the fourth-quarter average for that
yearof slightly above 72 billion.
Total salaries and wages in January were estimatedto be 5
percent higher than a year earlier with laborincome in the
commodity-producing industries upabout 12 percent. Factory pay
rolls were 17 percentlarger than in January 1939.
As compared with December, however, total salariesand wages in
January showed a more-than-seasonaldecline; the adjusted index fell
from 87.8 to 87.0. Em-
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS60
50
40
30
20
10
0
\
\n\]1 K^A
/i r 1 I i ! i 1 1 i 1 - . . . . I
1936 1937 1938 1939 19400 0 4091
Figure 4.Value of Construction Contracts Awarded for
ManufacturingBuildings, 1936-40 (The F. W. Dodge Corporation).
ployment in manufacturing was lowered slightly morethan
seasonally expected from mid-December to mid-January, with a
decline of 200,000 workers. Thecontraction of industrial output, it
will be recalled, wasquite small over the same period of time.
Employ-ment in retail establishments experienced the usuallarge
drop from December as employees temporarilyadded for the holiday
trade were released. Therewere declines of more-than-seasonal
proportions in theconstruction industry, partly caused by adverse
weather.In the aggregate, nonagricultural employment wasreduced by
1,160,000 workers from mid-December tomid-January largely as a
result of the seasonal influ-ences at work at this time of the
year. As comparedwith a year ago the number at work in
nonagriculturalpursuits was about 1,100,000 larger.
Despite the fact that the decline in income wasrather small in
January on a seasonally adjusted basis,retail trade did not make a
good showing in that month.With the conspicuous exception of
automobiles, retailsales in most lines fell more than seasonally
after thehigh level of consumption attained in December, andthe
reports available for February indicate little change
in this field. Automobile sales, however, have beengood during
the first 2 months of this year. The finalfigures for January
showed a less-than-seasonal declinefrom December, and a continued
high rate of sales isindicated by partial data for February. Retail
deliv-eries of passenger cars for January and February wereabout
one-third larger than a year earlier.
The consumption pattern appears not to have beenaided by any
general readjustment of retail prices sofar this year. Although
food prices at retail wereslightly lower in mid-January than a
month earlier,retail prices of shoes, clothing, other textile
products,etc., have tended upward, according to available
infor-mation. On February 1, the Fairchild index of
selecteddepartment-store articles was fractionally higher thanthe
January figure and was 3.6 percent above the posi-tion 12 months
earlier.Further Increase in Inventories.
It is a reasonable deduction from the character of thecurrent
business pattern that total inventory holdingsshould be
accumulating at a less rapid rate than duringthe late months of
1939. Just as the business expan-sion of last autumn was based so
largely upon the in-crease in this volatile investment area, so now
the rapiddecline in activity appears to be the result of
lessenedstock accumulation. No doubt this will show up to agreater
degree when data for February become avail-able. During January
there was a further substantialincrease in inventories, as the
following data indicate.
Table 2.Recent Inventory Changes[December 1938=100]
JuneOctober-NovemberDecember
January
Month
1939
1940
Manufac-turers
98.5101.5104.5107.5
110.0
Whole-salers
104.0112.5112.5111.0
116.5
Depart-ment stores(seasonallyadjusted)
100104107103
104
Source: Manufacturers and wholesalers, U. S. Department of
Commerce; depart-ment stores, Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System.
Wholesalers' inventories increased about 5 percentin Januarya
seasonal rise is usualafter a muchless than seasonal decline in the
previous month.There was, however, a smaller increase in
manufac-turers' stocks in January than in December and thesein
total are in the neighborhood of four times as largeas wholesalers'
holdings. The only data available inthe retail field, those for
department stores, show asmall increase from December to January
after allow-ance for the seasonal factor.
Export TradeAs the volume of industrial activity has receded,
the
one area of demand to show continued vigor is theexport trade.
Shipments of United States merchandise
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-
March 1940 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
to foreign markets in January, valued at 359 milliondollars,
were fractionally above the December total,contrary to the seasonal
decline usual during this
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS4001
IMPORTS FOR COHSUMPTiOH
1937 I , , 1
1938 1939I I
Figure 5.Value of Exports of United States Merchandise and
Imports forConsumption, 1937-40 (U. S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau ofForeign and Domestic Commerce).
period. At this figure, exports are almost three-fourthslarger
than a year ago and higher than at any timesince the early months
of 1930. On the basis ofvolumevalue adjusted for price changesthe
com-parison with former years is even more favorable; thequantity
index of exports for both December andJanuary was 140 (1923-25 =
100), only slightly belowthe best quarter's figure for 1929 of
143.
With exports in this volume for 2 successive months,it appears
quite definite that the war has enlarged themarket for United
States goods. This stimulus wasnot evident in the first 3 months of
the conflict, duringwhich time our exports expanded little more
thanseasonally. The export value in December and Jan-uary, however,
was 20 percent above the average forthe 3 preceding war months
despite the fact that thosemonths include the usual seasonal high
points of theyear. Although this rise may not measure up to
theanticipations which provided the basis of last autumn'sexpansion
in business, it is of substantial magnitudeand an increase must be
given adequate considerationin an estimate of the economic outlook,
especially sincethe export movement has continued at this high
levelduring February.
The average monthly increase since the outbreak ofthe war was
significantly larger than the rise during thefirst 5 months of the
World War, and it was concentratedto a much greater degree among
industrial products thanin 1914. A paralleling of the spectacular
1915-19 ex-pansion in exports during the present conflict still
seemsrather unlikely, but this should not cause one to over-look
the fact that even the current volume of exports willprovide
considerable support to business during themonths ahead.
With the totals virtually the same in both Decem-ber and
January, the changes in either the commodity
or country composition of our export trade for the 2-month
period were not of great moment. Most inter-esting of the changes
from December to January was acontraseasonal increase in raw cotton
exports of 16million dollars, which gave an unusually high
Januarytotal of 59.9 million dollars. The shipments during themonth
amounted to approximately 1,125,000 bales(500 pounds each) as
compared with 327,000 bales inJanuary 1939. Although this volume is
large for Jan-uary, the total shipments during the current
cottonyearstarting in Augusthave not been unusuallyhigh, except in
comparison with the low volume ofexports during the 2 previous
years. A combination ofTable 3.Value of United States Exports
(Domestic Merchandise), by
Groups and Principal Commodities[In millions of dollars]
Commodity
Total
Meats and lardLeather _Leather manufacturesCornWheat and wheat
flourCanned vegetablesFruits (dried and canned)Leaf tobacco (bright
flue-cured)Textile fibers and manufactures
Raw cotton..Wood and paper
Sawmill products _ __CoalPetroleum and products
Crude petroleumMetals and manufactures
Iron and steel-mill products, total-Iron and steel scrap
Ferro-alloys _.Aluminum, except manufactures..Copper,
refined
Machinery, total3Electrical machinery and appa-
ratusMetal-working machineryTractors and parts
Motor trucks and bussesPassenger carsParts for assemblyAircraft,
engines and partsChemicals and related products
Industrial chemicals and special-ties _ _
5months,Sept.-Dec.1938andJan.1939
1, 244.1
20.54.73.5
16.925.3
1.628.187.9
142.6102.139.215.522.2
151.337.8
149.873.017.07.13.2
32.6189.8
41.041.516.826.642.318.024.455.8
23.4
5months,Sept-Dec.1939andJan.19401
1,609.4
23.46.84.4
12.215.12.9
26.026.4
275.6214.247.915.834.5
168.036.6
271.0137.723.113.213.650.2
225.2
47.656.417.824.430.221.571.789.9
42.3
Per-cent-age
change
+29.4+14.4+44.7+24.6-27.9-40 .1+77.8- 7 . 4
-69 .9+93.2
+109.9+22.1+2.3
+55.6+11.1-3.0
+80.9+88.7+36.0+84.0
+323. 3+53.8+18.7+15.9+36.0+6.2- 8 . 2
-28 .6+19.7
+194. 3+61.3+80.6
Dec.1938andJan.1939
476.6
8.61.81.16.7
12.70.68.4
22.848.933.518.06.45.8
59.212.459.929.88.02.12.5
12.474.8
16.616.95.4
12.221.98.1
10.620.4
8.0
Dec.1939andJan.19401
715.3
11.92.51.57.14.21.45.09.1
129.6102.119.95.97.2
64.811.9
132.567.2
7.45.15.1
29.198.5
20.227.8
6.212.615.310.553.936.7
16.9
Per-cent-Page
change
+50.1+37.7+40.7+40.7+5.6
-67.1+157. 5-41.1-59.8
+165. 2+205.1+10.8-8.5
+23.0+9.4-3.9
+121. 0+125. 4
-6.7+138.1+102.9+135. 4+31.8
+21.6+64.7+13.1+3.5
-30.1+29.5
+408. 4+80.3
+110. 2
1 Statistics included for January 1940 are preliminary and
subject to revision.2 Includes industrial machinery, electrical
apparatus, agricultural implements,
office and printing machinery, railroad^equipment, and vehicles
other than auto-mobiles and aircraft.
Source: U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Foreign and
Domestic Com-merce.
reasons accounts for the large increase in cotton exports;low
stocks of American cotton abroad after 2 years ofreduced
purchasing, the export payment plan, and thecotton-rubber exchange
arrangement are the principalfactors. Cotton exports are not
expected to be main-tained at January's level for an extended
period.
The increase in cotton shipments in January offsetthe reduction
in the aggregate of exports of othercommodities. Declines of a
minor and frequentlyseasonal character occurred in most commodity
classi-fications, but there were increases in such food productsas
meats and lard, wheat and flour, dried and canned
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8 SUEVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS March 1940fruits, and canned
vegetables, and such nonfood prod-ucts as leaf tobacco, copper,
aluminum, and coal.The major change in the country figures was the
in-crease of 17 million dollars to the United Kingdom,three-fourths
of which is accounted for by cotton.There were also much smaller
increases to France, theU. S. S. R., Norway, and the Netherlands,
which in partoffset the declines to most other countries.
The magnitude of the increase, as well as the shiftsin our
export trade since August may be seen fromthe data presented in
tables 3 and 4. Compared withsimilar periods a year earlier,
exports for the first 5
EXPORTSMILLIONS OF DOLLARS80
UNITED
i
A\ rV
KINGDOM
A 1/ 1 /
1 1 Ml 1
F R A N C E
1111(
/
AJo1 1 M I 1 M M 1M M l I t M M
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS180
CANADA
A** Vii i , i ! , . i . i
AJ\/J M M , ! , , , , ,JAPAN
AJ| 1 1 II ! 1 M II
IAA /M M l l l M I I M M l l l M M
u. s. s.
1 v
R.
/
A. /1 1 1 1 1 I M I I 1
SWEDEN
ARGENTINA
a f\7
BRAZIL
1938 1939 1940 1938 1939 1940
Figure 6.Value of Exports of United States Merchandise By
SelectedCountries, 1938-40 (U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Foreignand Domestic Commerce).
months of the war rose almost 30 percent, while forDecember and
January alone the increase was 50 per-cent. It is apparent that the
rising trend, in evidenceeven before the war started (see fig. 5),
has beenstrengthened in recent months. Although the
char-acteristics of the trade have not been altered sig-nificantly
in the past month or two, the period as awhole has brought some
striking changes. Agriculturalproducts in generalwith the notable
exception ofcottonhave not moved abroad in larger volume.The major
declines shown in the table are for farmproducts: corn, wheat and
wheat flour, tobacco, andfruits. In sharp contrast with these
movements are the
large increases among the industrial products, of whichaircraft,
metals and metal manufactures, industrialchemicals, and
metalworking machinery are outstand-ing. Demand has been heavy for
the products of thoseindustries providing basic materials or tools
for warconditions, although the strict controls being exercisedupon
certain consumption is adversely affecting exportsof other types of
goods.Table 4.Value of United States Exports (Domestic Merchandise)
to
Leading Countries[In millions of dollars]
Country
5months,
Sept-Dec.1938andJan.1939
Total.
Europe, totalFranceGermany 2 __United Kingdom...
_BelgiumNetherlandsDenmark IFinlandNorwaySweden !___"_"'Union of
Soviet Socialist Repub-
licsItaly IIIIIIIIIIZIIIIIIIIi:Rumania.Spain
Northern North America, totalCanada
Southern North America, totalCuba ......Mexico I..Netherlands
West Indies
South America, totalArgentinaBrazilChile
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIi;ColombiaVenezuela
Asia, totalChina, including Hong Kong and
KwantungJapanPhilippine Islands
Oceania, totalAfrica, total
5months,
Sept-Dec.1939andJan.19401
1, 244.1
554.658.763.5
235. 529.337.19.85.58.9
28.9
22.723.92.43.9
168.1165.0
108.731.124.417.0
115.229.526.99.6
18.518.8
213.4
23.3104.638.4
34.9
49.2
1, 609. 4
662.9311.7
.6258.625.254.512.65.6
21.748.1
36.133.72.5
18.0
242.9239.0
149.541.939.715.7
178.442.644.315.424.030.9
285.3
42.8123.648.1
39.4
50.2
Per-cent-age
ihange
+29.4+19.5+90.3-99.0+9.8
14.0+46.7+28.0+3.2
+144. 2+66.8+59.4+41.0+2.4
+357.1+44.4+44.8+37.6+34.6+62.4-7.6
+54.9+44.3+64.6+60.1+29.9+64.7+33.7+84.3+18.2+25.3+13.0+3.4
Dec.1938andJan.1939
476.6
206.921.820.288.511.515.44.11.83.2
10.1
10.09.51.21.3
53.952.9
43.812.811.06.2
46.910.811.73.98.17.8
90.5
10.346.215.2
13.4
21.2
Dec.1939andJan.19401
Per-cent-age
change
15.3
317.474.3(3)
115.99.3
23.15.11.77.9
14.6
21.816.7
.810.2
81.280.0
59.114.817.35.5
81.920.919.57.1
10.614.4
133.0
23.355.720.6
20.2
22.6
+50.1+53.4
+240.1+31.0-18.8+50.3+23.9
- 3 . 1+145. 7+44.0
+118. 2+76.6-36.0
+714.0+50.7+51.2+34.8+15.8+57.7-10.8+74.6+93.6+67.2+84.8+31.1+84.1
+46.9+125. 8+20.5+35.3
+50.5+6.7
1 Statistics included for January 1940 are preliminary and
subject to revision.
2 For purposes of comparison, trade with Austria,
Czecho-Slovakia, and Polandare included with that of Germany in all
periods shown.
3 Less than $1,000.Source: U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Foreign and Domestic Com-
merce.
From table 4 it may be noted that December andJanuary show less
unevenly distributed increases, bycontinental areas, than was the
case during the previous3 months when temporary disruptions were
importantimpediments in the trade. The gain in recent monthsis
rather evenly distributed except for the greater risein exports to
South America and the relatively smallincrease for Africa. In late
months the relative gainshave widened for each of the major
regions. Withinany one of the regions there are large variations
amongthe relative changes for individual countries. What isto be
noted from the country data is that the gainshave not been
restricted to war areas. Directly orindirectly, of course, the war
has no doubt been the
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March 1940 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 9
major influence. In such neutral areas as LatinAmerica, however,
the influence has probably beenlargely indirect; it has raised
business expectationsthere as well as here and has caused diversion
of ordersfrom European suppliers to our markets. Though re-cording
improvement, reports from Latin America donot indicate a change in
basic economic conditionscomparable with the increase in our
exports to that area.
It is an interesting commentary upon the characterof the
business expansion of the last third of 1939 thatindustrial
activity entered upon a declining phase at'just about the time that
exports began to register asignificant increase. This is peculiar
only because,had there not been a sudden change of expectations
inSeptember, business would now undoubtedly be expand-ing under the
stimulus of increased foreign demand.The size of the inventory
accumulation during thefourth quarter of 1939, however, was such
that it com-pletely outweighs the increase in exports which
busi-ness is now realizing. The inventory increase duringthe
previous quarter is estimated at approximately abillion dollars,
whereas exports are now running in theneighborhood of 300 million
dollars a quarter ahead ofwhat they were last summer. Although this
increasein exports cannot be expected to offset the decline
inindustrial activity arising from the cessation of inven-tory
accumulation, it is a definite factor of strengthin the current
situation which should aid materiallyin lessening both the extent
and duration of thereadjustment.
Trends in FinanceFinancial developments during the first 2
months
of the year were not of particular significance fromthe
standpoint of current business trends. Bankingand credit data
reflected primarily the post-Christmasseasonal adjustments and the
continuation of large-scale shipments of gold from abroad. The
heavybalance currently due this country on account of
theinternational exchange of goods and services is theprimary
factor in this inward movement of gold. Freecapital transfers to
the United States continue, thoughthey are considerably restricted
by regulations in effectin most foreign countries. The inward
capital move-ment is now probably more conditioned upon com-modity
commitments than upon the desire for safety.
The loans to commerce, industry, and agriculture byreporting
member banks declined seasonally during thefirst 6 weeks of the
year. Loans to brokers and dealersdeclined almost $90,000,000,
reflecting primarily therepayment of funds borrowed in connection
with theGovernment's December financing. An increase ofover
$270,000,000 in the investments of these banksduring this period
served to offset the declines in loansand to add to their earning
assets. The net change indemand deposits was an increase of
$495,000,000.
Chiefly as a result of an increase in monetary goldstock of
approximately $400,000,000 from the begin-ning of the year to
February 14 and the post-holidayreturn of $170,000,000 of currency
from circulation,the reserve balances of the member banks rose
almost$450,000,000 to $12,151,000,000, and excess reserveswere
thereby raised to $5,580,000,000.
Security prices have moved only moderately lowerduring the first
2 months of 1940, notwithstanding theslackening of business
activity. Stock prices had notmoved up with the sharp advance in
business and profitsduring the final quarter of last year. As a
matter offact, industrial stock prices did not make any netadvance
of moment after the fast September move.Currently, the Standard
Statistics index of 350 stocks isno higher than it was at the end
of 1938.
The announcement by the British Treasury that ithad
requisitioned the security holdings of British resi-dents in about
60 important American corporations hadno obvious effect on
quotations in the domestic marketsfor these securities. Unofficial
British estimates haveplaced the current value of the securities at
about$100,000,000.
Corporate securities issued during February were wellin excess
of the January total, although flotations werestill primarily for
refunding purposes.
Foreign exchange rates showed little net change fromthe
beginning of the year to the end of February, al-though the
interval was not without minor fluctuations.In an effort to check
the weakness of the Mexican peso,which has persisted since about
the middle of December,the Bank of Mexico announced during February
that itproposed to stabilize the peso rate at approximately 6pesos
to the dollar. At the end of February rigidexchange control was
established in Sweden following aperiod of heavy capital
flight.
213501-40 2
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April 1940 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
The Business SituationRECESSION in business activity, in
evidence sincethe end of December 1939, continued during
March.Although the rate of decline, especially in manufac-turing
industries, was less rapid than in the first 2months of the year
the drop during the month on aseasonally adjusted basis was
substantial. At theclose of the month the movement of the few
businessstatistics available on a weekly basis was still
towardlower levels with little indication of an early reversalof
trend.
The contraction in industrial activity during thefirst quarter
of this year has erased the spectaculargains made in the 4 months
following the outbreak ofthe European war. The Federal Reserve
index ofindustrial production, corrected for seasonal move-ments,
was down to 109 in February, and preliminarydata indicate a drop of
4 points for March. Aggregatemanufacturing output was about 5
percent larger thana year earlier, almost entirely as a result of
the higheroperations in the durable goods industries.
The volume of output in March was approximatelythe same as that
of last August. A few durable goodsindustries are in an exceptional
position either by virtueof a continuing flow of orders resulting
from the waror because of previously accumulated backlogs. Butapart
from these exceptions, the gain in the September-December
production spurt has been canceled by theeven more rapid
January-March decline. With thevolume of activity now about on a
par with that ofAugust, the industrial situation differs from that
of 7months ago in one important respect; the trend wasthen up,
whereas it is now down.
The recent slowing in the rate of decline does notnecessarily
presage a reversal in the curve of businessduring the spring
months. Expectations of a generalupturn are based upon improvement
in the rate ofinvestment outlays not apparent at this time, or
upona change in the character of the war which wouldfurther expand
our export trade. A significantly highervolume of productive
activity is not implicit in thepresent volume of consumption
expenditures and exporttrade, or in the prospective volume of
expenditures forinvestment goods as revealed by new-order data
forplant and equipment.
Insofar as the business outlook can be previewed, thekey to
developments over the next few months lies inthe inventory
situationas has been the case sinceSeptember. The decline in
industrial activity so farthis year has resulted from a decline in
the rate ofinventory accumulation. During February, the latestmonth
for which data are available, the increase inmanufacturers7 stocks
was slightly less than 1 percentas compared with the January
increase of 2.5 percent.
For wholesalers the increase in January was 5.0 percentand in
February 1.6 percent. With the further reduc-tion of output in
March it is, therefore, probable thatthe over-all net inventory
change in that month wasvery small regardless of whether the
direction of themovement was slightly up or slightly down.
Hence, if the present volume of inventories is main-tained, as
it may well be to provide a safeguard againstfuture war
developments, a sidewise movement of in-dustrial activity over the
near-term with fluctuationswithin a narrow range is probable. Any
tendency forbusiness to let inventories run off, however,
wouldresult in a deepening of the recession. Liquidation tothe
extent of say a fourth or a half of the holdings ac-cumulated since
September, involving a disinvestment ofupwards of $400,000,000
could hardly be offset by suchincreases in other types of
investment as are likely tobe realized.
MILLIONS5
A-
3
2
1
O
Oh BALES
1924-25
1929-30
1934-35 1939-4-0
Figure 2.-Domestic consumption of Raw Cotton for Seven
Months,August-February, 1924-25 through 1939-40 (U. S. Department
of Com-merce, Bureau of the Census).
New Orders Continue Restricted.
The sluggishness of business purchasing suggests thatsome
inventory liquidation is a decided possibility atthe present
juncture; the time has just about beenreached when buying must
advance if a reduction inholdings is to be avoided. Retailers
appear to haveadopted a waiting policy in the face of the
recenthesitancy shown in retail trade. If allowance is madefor the
increase in prices as compared with a year agoand for the earlier
date of the pre-Easter season, de-partment store sales in March did
not make a favorablerecord.
The latest report by the National Association ofPurchasing
Agents reveals that a cautious attitude pre-vails in industrial
purchasing, with expectations offurther price weakness. New-order
data now available,relating mostly to February business, do not
indicateimprovement and, even in the few exceptions, such as
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paper, new business is still below current output.New furniture
business in February was about a thirdunder January and only a
shade higher than a yearearlier. Orders in the steel and textile
industries arereported by the trade to be well below productionwith
backlogs declining. As may be seen in figure 2,mill consumption of
cotton since August has establisheda new record for that period; a
maintenance of thisrate for the remainder of the cotton year
appearsimprobable under present general business conditions.
The monthly survey of manufacturers recently ini-tiated by the
Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerceshowed a further decline in
new orders from January toFebruary. The February total of new
business, reportsfor which are restricted very largely to durable
goodsproducers, was only 6.0 percent above a year earlierwhen
orders were at a rather low ebb.
The automobile industry has been looked to as amajor support to
the sagging business structure.Retail sales of passenger cars in
the first 2 months ofthe year were unusually good, the average
increase overthe previous year being more than 35 percent.
Thereturns for the early part of March were less favorable,although
they picked up as the month wore on. Stock-ing of dealers has
proceeded at a rapid pace, however,so that field stocks are now
highin the neighborhoodof a half million cars. Under these
circumstances theusual seasonal increase in assemblies is not
anticipated
by Ward's Automotive Reports and it is evident thatconsumer
takings will have to be better than in earlyMarch if output is not
to decline.
INDEX NUMBERS, 1923-25 = 1002 0 0
150
100
50
/RON
AUTOMOBILES
AND STEEL^j>
*s. J 1
1937 1938 1939 1940Figure 3.Indexes of Production of Iron and
Steel and Automobiles,
Adjusted for Seasonal Variations, 1937-40 (Board of Governors of
theFederal Reserve System).NOTE.Data for March are estimates of the
U. S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce.
The preliminary data for March show that automo-bile production
did not rise by the usual seasonal incre-ment in that month from
the high volume of assembliesin January and February. March output
of about425,000 units was, however, 15 percent higher than ayear
earlier and the first quarter total was up 24 per-cent. Production
in the automobile industry, there-fore, has held up in recent
months much better than in
MONTHLY BUSINESS INDEXES
Year and month
1929: February.1932: February..1933: February.1937:
February,193&: February _1939:
JanuaryFebruary..
_MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptember.OctoberNovember..December..
1940:JanuaryFebruary..
Monthly incomepayments, adjusted i
Factory em-ployment
andpay rolls
Z
1 h3 o
Monthly average,1929=100
98.967.455.587.681.8
83.383.084.183.083.484.183.785.486.888.088.589.5
89.588.4
66.554.0
78.482.382.082.181.081.482,882.884.084.586.687.387.7
87.286.9
98.570.157.787.582.5
84.484.484.883.884.385'. 485.586.787.088.889.5
Cash farmincome 2
Isifr
+ ftC Z33
Monthly av-erage, 1923-
25 = 100
105.071.465.0
108.491.9
94.694.394.093.893.394.395.395.997.5
101.2103.4104.6
103.9102.2
110.855.441.4
100.177.5
83.786.087.685.585.086.584,489.793.8
101.6101.6103.7
98.397.8
fP
Monthly av-erage, 1924-
29=100
57.554.0
66.052.557.553.5591059.567.575.593.0
107.090.079.0
69.060.0
79.578.576.573.072.568.070.563. 563.066.573.576.576.579.0
79.083.0
Industrialproduction,adjusted *
Freight-car Retail sales,loadings, value, ad-adjusted l justed
1
1?11
Foreigntrade,value,
adjusted 1
Monthly average, 1923-25=100 1929-31 = 100
1186963
11679
1019998929298
101103111121124128
119109
118686111675
1009796929197100104111121124129
118108
1197880116103
110110110959810410691114121124120
125121
10960528262
696766606267697077808278
7873
10478666862
626262616161626263626362
6261
110 136.544.033.0
139.574.0
91.096.088.079.579.07.9.080.576.583.593.7
102.8108.5
124.0
*
Monthly average,1923-25=100
12845296776
556370647070697272726791
95100
11641268751
554953536158575759657377
7462
11827196251
867369676363677373768386
7562
124.165.252.789.474.2
90.577.192.385.390.094.789.688.793.996.594.5
113.5
101. 387.9
$2
II
Monthlyaverage,1926=100
95.466.359.886.3
76.976.976.776.276.275.675.475.079.179.479.279.2
79.478.7
1 Adjusted for seasonal variations; monthly arerages, except
income payments, are based on unadjusted indexes. 2 From farm
marketings.
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industry generally, although it is characteristicallysubject to
wider cyclical swings.
This is one of the major points of difference betweenthe 1937
collapse and the current recession thus far, apoint which is well
illustrated by figure 3. In 1937assemblies declined very promptly
with iron and steeloutput and by relatively the same amount. But
theyhave not done so during the first quarter of 1940. It isto be
noted, however, that steel rose much above the1937 peak in the
final months of 1939 so that the lack ofsimilarity with 1937 is not
decisive. The essentialquestion is whether consumer demand for
automobilescan be maintained despite the decline in income whichis
occurring. While income payments had fallen onlyslightly in
January, the February drop was 1.1 pointsin the adjusted index to
88.4, and a movement ofsimilar size is likely for March. This is a
rate of de-cline comparable with the September-December rate
ofincrease.Production Declining.
For the last week of March steel-ingot productionwas down to 61
percent of capacity, or 5 points lowerthan at the beginning of the
month. Several of themajor industries that consume steel have
apparentlyheld operations up at a better rate than steel output,and
throughout the war period the use of steel hasnot fluctuated to the
extent of the changes in steelproduction. Some producers of
fabricated steel prod-ucts, on the contrary, have reduced
operations sharply.The accompanying tabulation for steel barrels
(heavytype) reveals wide swings since last summer.
Februaryproduction, back to the summer level was only half aslarge
as at the fall peak.
Steel Barrels and Drums[Thousands]
Month
1939:July .AugustSeptember. ._ _ _ .__ _.OctoberNovember . __ _
___December.
1940:JanuarvFebruary
Neworders
785862
1,7311,9531,4721,259
841694
Produc-tion
750851
1,2041,6121,6361,469
1,138803
Ship-ments
757850
1,2071,5771,6531,457
1,158809
Ordersunfilledat end ofmonth
236248772
1,148967768
450335
Among the nondurable goods industries, the moderateecession of
the first 2 months of the year was extended
into March. Preliminary indications are that produc-tion of
these goods, as measured by the Federal Reserveindex, was no higher
than in March of last year. Forthe entire first quarter the gain
over a year ago was onlyabout 2 to 3 percent. The cotton-textile
industry, al-though showing some decline, has continued to
produceat an exceptionally high rate. Woolen-mill activityrecorded
a moderate decline from January to February
and consumption of raw wool, according to preliminaryfigures,
was more than 5 percent below the rate of thepreceding year. Shoe
production for February, al-though increasing seasonally from
January, was slightlysmaller than in February of last year.
In the paper and paperboard industries, the prelim-inary weekly
reports for March suggest that the declinewas not very large during
the month. Production inboth these lines was at about the August
position.
Among the fuel industries there was a further declinein
bituminous coal output, the result of seasonal influ-ences and the
lowered rate of industrial demands.Crude petroleum production in.
March increased toanother new record. Because refinery operations
wereunusually high, there was but a slight increase in stocksof
crude oil. As a result, stocks of gasoline rose abovethe
100,000,000-barrel mark to a record total; at theend of March they
were almost one-fifth larger than ayear ago. Although domestic
gasoline demand forMarch was estimated by the Bureau of Mines to
beabout 6 percent above that of March 1939, the positionof stocks
relative to consumption remains much higherthan in recent
years.
The continued weakness of commodity and securityquotations
reflects the decline in general business;price movements, likewise,
have not been indicative ofa business upturn in the near future.
March wascharacterized by minor declines in quotations of severalof
the more sensitive industrial commodities. Printcloth, lead, tin,
wool, silk, cotton, and hides werefractionally lower at the end of
March than a monthearlier. Wholesale price indexes for farm
productsand foods averaged slightly lower than in
February,according to the weekly data. Although prices ofmost
industrial products, both finished and semi-finished, have held at
the higher figures established lastyear, the general level of
industrial commodity priceshas been loweredmainly as a result of
the changes inquotations of raw and semifinished materials.
Thus,the comprehensive index of over 600 price series
forcommodities other than farm products and foodscompiled by the
Department of Labor, has declinedfrom the 1939 peak of 84.4
(1926=100) to 82.0 in thelast week of March. During the first 8
months of 1939,this index had averaged 80.5.Security Prices.
The uncertainty that characterized commoditymarkets was also the
dominant note in the securityexchanges during March. Stock price
movementswere largely confined to the narrow ranges of Januaryand
February. The Standard Statistics index of 350industrial share
quotations averaged fractionally above107 (1926 = 100) during
March; about 7 points belowthe peak last fall. The March level,
however, was 12points or more above the low point reached in April
oflast year following the European crisis of that period.
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Prices of corporate bonds also were little changedduring March
after the slight decline during Januaryand February. The new-issues
market for corporatesecurities continued relatively inactive during
themonth. Aside from' the unusually large industrialissues for
refunding purposes the flotation of corporatesecurities so far this
year has been mainly confined toutility refunding. There was an
increase in com-mercial loans during March though of such small
pro-portions as to be of no material significance.
A Treasury refunding was effected at a low interestrate in
March. Five-year %-percent notes were offeredin exchange for a
called issue of 5-year 1 ^ -percent notes.Quotations of long-term
Government issues strength-ened during March; yields on these
securities declinedto a point but moderately below the record
figurereached in June 1939.
Reflecting the substantial improvement in corporateand
individual incomes last year, the income taxes dueon March 15
recorded a marked increase over those ofa year earlier which were
based upon 1938 earnings.For the month of March, income tax
collections (DailyTreasury Statement) totaled $665,000,000, an
increaseof 31 percent over the collections in the comparableperiod
of 1939. Collections w e^re smaller than thoseof March 1938.Export
Demand Maintained.
February's export returns revealed a decline in for-eign
shipments of 5.6 percent to $339,000,000 from theJanuary figure of
$359,000,000, a reduction that is ac-counted for by the shorter
month. A decline no greaterthan this amount is indicative of a
well-maintaineddemand from abroad. On the other hand, in those
re-cent years when the trend was rising, in 1937 and 1939,exports
in February exceeded the January totals.
The detailed figures show that the contraction waslimited to a
few commodities and a few countries, furtherindicating demand in
general to be continuing at thehigh December-January level. Cotton
shipments alonedeclined $15.6 millions from the high January total
of$59,900,000. Nonferrous metals, aircraft, and cottonexports
combined declined $26,300,000; hence, ship-ments of all other
commodities on balance showed someincrease. Part of this increase
is accounted for by thesale of 16 merchant ships for
$6,100,000.
A decrease of more than $13,000,000 in shipments toJapan was the
outstanding change in the country clas-sification. It follows the
abrogation of the UnitedStates-Japanese trade treaty in January and
severalmonths of very high exports to that country whichprobably
were partly an anticipation of that event.The only other declines
of significance were those tothe United Kingdom accounted for by
cotton; to theU. S. S. R. because of the drop in copper
shipments;and to the Netherlands, largely resulting from declinesin
cotton and petroleum. The decline in exports to
these four markets was almost $32,000,000 and wastherefore
partly offset by an increase in shipments toall other
countries.
A fact of some importance in assessing the significanceof the
increase in exports in recent months is broughtout in figure 4. The
rise has been highly concentratedamong very few types of goods,
namely, iron and steel-mill products, metalworking machinery,
nonferrousmetals, aircraft, industrial chemicals, and
unmanu-factured cotton. In February, for example, these sixitems
showed an increase compared with a year earlier
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
8 I INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS
0
200
150
100
COTTON, UNMANUFACTUREDI
1938 1939 1940 1938 1940
Figure 4.Value of Exports of U. S. Merchandise, 1938-40 (U. S.
Depart-ment of Commerce, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic
Commerce).
of 169 percent, whereas all other commodities had risenonly 21
percent. Out of an increase in total exports of$122,000,000 they
accounted for over $87,000,000.As the chart demonstrates, the
increase in exportssince August would not be large but for the rise
inshipments of a few products.
From the kind of goods involved it is apparent thatthe war has
been the factor behind our expandingtradewhether to belligerents or
neutrals. I t suggeststhat the maintenance of the current volume of
trade isdependent upon the continuation of the war. Forthis reason
the stimulus to the domestic economy fromthe increase in exports is
likely to be less than would bethe case if it were more diffused
and considered to be ofa more permanent character. The reluctance
to expandplants is evident even in those instances where thebacklog
is very large and demand is pressing capacity.
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FREE STERLING RESTRICTED
Following the announcement by the British author-ities of
regulations which will reduce the demand forfree sterling,
quotations for sterling in New Yorkdropped during March to new lows
since the beginningof the war. The new regulations, effective March
25,require that exporters of rubber, tin, jute, and
jutemanufactures, whisky, and furs from the United King-dom;
rubber, jute, and jute manufactures from India;and rubber and tin
from the producing colonies to speci-fied countries must secure
paj7ment in dollars and otherdesignated currencies rather than in
sterling as waspreviously the general practice.
The importance of this limitation on the demand forfree sterling
may be judged by the fact that UnitedStates imports of the affected
commodities in 1939 werevalued at approximately $250,000,000. Under
the newarrangements, the British authorities will receive
theproceeds of selected British and Empire exports in theform of
dollars and other freely disposable currenciesand by the same means
insure payment for these exportsat the official rate. It is
significant that British coun-tries are important or principal
suppliers of rubber, tin,whisky, and jute among the products which
must bepaid for in foreign currencies beginning on March 25.Other
more competitive exports from the United King-dom and sterling
countries may still be paid for withsterling acquired in the free
market at the lower ratesthere prevailing.
The relative magnitude of transactions carried out inthe market
for free sterling is not precisely known.Nevertheless, the
unrestricted option of persons wantingsterling to cover their
requirements outside the officialmarket must have resulted in a
substantial volume ofbusiness so long as offerings by holders of
free sterlingwere sufficient to meet this demand at a price
belowthe Bank of England's selling rate.
The major sources of supply of free sterling havebeen, on the
one hand, pre-war foreign sterling balancesnot eligible for
conversion into foreign currencies at theofficial rate and, on the
other, sterling balances arisingfrom the payment by British
importers for goodsinvoiced in sterling. In December and
January,transfers of sterling from resident to nonresidentaccounts
in British banks were placed under the samerestrictions as the
conversion of sterling into foreigncurrencies, that is, were made
subject to the permissionof the exchange authorities upon
presentation of docu-mentary evidence of the specific transactions
for whichpermits were required. The precise criteria used by
the authorities in allowing transfers of sterling fromdomestic
to foreign accounts are not known, but it isprobable that the
prevention of capital exports is aprimary purpose. The restriction
of the supply of freesterling, resulting from these measures, in
conjunctionwith the reputed depletion of pre-war foreign balancesin
London, was followed by a firm tendency in themarket for free
sterling. The rate weakened in Febru-ary under the pressure of
reported offerings by Europeanand South American holders of
sterling balances; and,in March, the New York quotation reached new
war-time lows with the appearance of the regulationsdesigned to
reduce the demand for free sterling.
The effect of British exchange regulations is to admitor force
certain transactions into the official marketand to exclude others,
which are permitted to clearthrough the unofficial or "free"
market. The ex-istence and the extent of a free market for sterling
arethus subject to the control of the British authorities,even
though no attempt is made to influence day-to-dayfluctuations in
rates. Transactions through the freemarket have facilitated the
liquidation of sterlingbalances by persons outside the United
Kingdom,although at some loss as compared with the rate
forofficially approved transfers. At the same time therehas been a
further depreciation of sterling and a con-sequent cheapening of
British and Empire exports toforeign purchasers, on the one hand,
and a furtherincrease in the sterling cost of British and
Empireimports for which foreign exchange is not made avail-able at
the official rate, on the other.
The need for dollar exchange on the part of theBritish
authorities is reflected in the continued heavyshipment of gold to
the United States. Imports ofgold from the United Kingdom and other
Britishcountries (including Canada) aggregated more
than$1,000,000,000 during the 6 months ended with Febru-ary.
Receipts from the United Kingdom fell to rela-tively small
proportions after September and accountedfor less than a fourth of
the total. Shipments fromCanada, consisting in large part of gold
previouslyplaced under earmark there for British account, ex-ceeded
$600,000,000. Unusually large imports camealso from British India,
Australia, and Hong Kong, andthere were substantial direct
shipments from SouthAfrica. The extent to which these receipts of
gold fromBritish sources may have been placed under earmarkin this
country for British account rather than usedimmediately to obtain
dollar exchange is not dis-closed.
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Mav 1940 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
The Business SituationT? NLARGEMENT of the battleground in the
Euro-*-^ pean war which came with dramatic suddenness onApril 9 had
little effect upon domestic business trendsup to the end of that
month. The major areas ofbusiness have either continued to sag
since the end ofMarch or have followed a sidewise movement.
Indus-trial production declined somewhat further duringApril,
although the contraction for the month was thesmallest so far this
year. Retail trade volumes havecontinued below the levels reached
in the closing monthsof last year, and freight traffic, exclusive
of coal, wasdown, on an adjusted basis, as compared with a
monthearlier. Residential construction, discussed in thespecial
article in this issue, is the one area to show amoderately improved
outlook recently.
There has been some expectation that the develop-ment of the war
to a more active stage in the springwould release a new buying wave
in domestic marketswhich would head off the period of inventory
liquidationthat appeared to be in prospect. But, according to
theinformation now at hand, a broad buying movement insufficient
volume to arrest the business decline has notyet occurred, and
there is certainly no evidence of arenewal of inventory
accumulation. There has beensome increase in business of a seasonal
character andnew business in several other lines has expanded
fromthe exceptionally low volumes that had been prevailing.Cotton
grey goods were purchased in larger quantitiesin April, even before
the spread of the war to Scandi-navia, than had been the case for
some months, althoughnot enough as yet to stop the production
decline in thatindustry. Purchasing of nonferrous metals had
anotherof its erratic spurts, and there was improved buying
ofhides. The one industry to receive a substantially en-larged
volume of new orders, however, was paper andpulpan obvious
beneficiary if Scandinavian suppliesare cut off from this market.
The buying was heaviestin pulp, although kraft paper and paperboard
orderswere significantly higher. Other types of paper weremuch less
affected.Price Decline Arrested.
The spread of the war has led to some advance insensitive
commodity prices. As may be seen in figure 2,the Bureau of Labor
Statistics' index of 28 commodityprices has risen from 112 (August
1939=100), prior tothe invasion of Norway, to 116 on April 25, thus
re-gaining the loss experienced during March. The gainis of minor
character as compared with the spectacularrise of last September
and canceled only part of thedecline from 124 at the beginning of
this year to 112 onApril 3.
An advance in the prices of import commodities suchas tin,
rubber, burlap, and cocoa, largely account for therise in the
index, although several domestic foodstuffsgrains, hogs, and
fatsalso increased. Wholesaleprices otherwise were generally
unaffected, with theexception of pulp and paper quotations for the
reasonalready mentioned. In contrast with the violentprice movement
at the beginning of the war, the Aprilrise does not reflect
substantially revised expectations ofwartime demand, either at home
or abroad. It restsmore upon supply considerations associated with
thedevelopment of the war and its possible influence uponshipping
facilities.
bO
4 0
20
00
80
I
\\
NyM I M I M I M , , , , , i
THURSDAY FIGURES
. , ! , ! . , i . ,1938
Figure 2.Wholesale Price Index of 28 Basic Commodities, 1936-40.
Plot-ted as of Thursday, Each Week (United States Department of
Labor,Bureau of Labor Statistics).
Also in marked contrast to its reaction last Septemberhas been
the behavior of the stock market. Since theinvasion of Norway the
tone of the market has been oneof weakness except for the shares of
particular industrieslikely to benefit by the turn the war has
takenaircraft,shipbuilding, paper, and pulp. The moderate rise
insecurity prices which began in the last week of Marchcarried over
into the first week of April but this gain waseliminated during the
remainder of the month. Thisset-back reduced stock and bond prices
to about theirMarch positions; the Standard Statistics' index of
420share quotations closed the month at 92.4 as comparedwith 91.7
at the end of March. There were moresizable declines in the
foreign-bond list, where the pricesof Danish and Norwegian bonds
lost between 40 and 50percent of their quoted values within a short
periodafter the war engulfed those countries.Production Continues
to Decline.
Industrial production continued to move downwardduring April.
Although sufficient data are not yetavailable to measure precisely
the decline, it now ap-pears that the set-back for the month was
much lessthan during the earlier months of the yearprobablyonly
half as large as the drop in March.
Steel-ingot production, which was at 60.7 percent ofcapacity in
the last week of March, was advanced alittle during the week of
April 6, but thereafter relapsed
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into a slow decline; the average output for the monthwas about
61 percent of capacity as compared with 63percent in March. Around
the middle of the monththe price of certain major steel products
was markeddown $4 a ton in an effort to stimulate demand.
Theresponse to this price inducement was very light, ac-cording to
reports from the trade, and new orders con-tinue below production,
although not by so wide amargin as in the earlier months of the
year. Towardthe end of the month it was announced that the pricecut
would be withdrawn on May 1; it is not known asyet whether new
business was substantially improvedby this announcement. Production
at its current rateinvolves some reduction of backlogs, even though
de-mand from abroad has increased appreciably since thestart of the
war. Whereas exports of steel-mill productsaccounted for only 7
percent of output last August, thispercentage was 15 in March. The
derived demandarising from larger exports of advanced
manufacturesof steelmachine tools, trucks, etc.is also muchhigher
now than it was before the war.
Automobile assemblies declined contraseasonally inApril, with
daily average production down slightlyfrom March. Activity in the
industry was held upbetter than seemed likely a month ago, because
of therelatively favorable showing of retail sales in the earlypart
of the month. Assemblies averaged better than
102,000 a week as compared with more than 103,000 inMarch. High
dealers' stocks in the industry are nowbeing reduced by the current
volume of sales, althoughat the end of April stocks were still
above those of ayear ago.
Among the other industries for which April trendsare known,
lumber output has expanded but by lessthan the usual seasonal.
Activity at paper and paper-board mills has also risen during the
month, if onlymoderately, in view of the changed situation wrought
bythe war. Bituminous-coal production was at a lowerrate than in
March, but was off less for the month thanin previous years. The
output of crude petroleum, onthe other hand, was changed but
little. Preliminaryindications are that cotton-mill activity
continued todecline, despite the pick-up in purchasing reported
fromWorth Street, and that shoe production, at approxi-mately the
March figures, did not materially improvethe unsatisfactory showing
of that industry for thisyear. Activity in a number of industries
that areoperating upon large banks of unfilled orders, such
asmachine tools, electrical machinery, aircraft, and ship-building,
was maintained during the month at the highlevel of the first
quarter.
A further indication of the declining tendency ofbusiness
activity is in the movement of freight traffic.Loadings, other than
coal, were off more than seasonally,
MONTHLY BUSINESS INDEXES
Year and month
Monthly incomepayments, ad-justed i
i !.-
Factory em-ployment j Cash farm
and income2pay rolls
SI 1VX3
G
Industrialproduction,adjusted l
ture
s
)Bjnu
nera
ls
Freight-carloadings,
adjusted 1
d in
dex
asm
nd
ise,
Q-ca
rlot
rc
ha
tha
Retail sales,value, ad-justed !
s * 1c05
5 *
Foreigntrade,value,
adjusted l
1 |
ft
| |
88
1IC
tiva
str
iC
on
Monthly average,1929 = 100
Monthly av-erage, 1923-
25 = 100Monthly av-erage, 1924-
29 = 100Monthly averag