To subscribe to our Daily Focus, please contact us at [email protected]Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 24 Mei, 2019 Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 6,032.7 1.6 -7.9 -0.1 MSCI Indonesia 23.6 2.6 -11.8 -7.8 MSCI EM 984.8 -1.3 -8.0 -12.1 HANG SENG 27,267.1 -1.6 -7.0 -9.9 KOSPI 2,059.6 -0.5 -6.4 -16.5 FTSE 7,231.0 -1 -1.8 -5.0 DJIA 25,490.5 -1.1 -3.1 3.9 NASDAQ 7,628.3 -1.6 -4.3 4.4 Valuation 2018F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) JCI 14.6 2.2 17.5 Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY BI 7-Day RR 6.00 0 25 -100 3yr 7.32 -7 27 22 10yr 7.99 -11 30 41 FX Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY USD/IDR 14,480.0 -0.3 3.2 2.2 USD/KRW 1,189.2 -0.3 3.3 10.1 USD/JPY 109.6 -0.7 -2.3 0.3 USD/CNY 6.9 0.1 2.7 8.1 Commodities Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY WTI 57.9 -5.7 -12.1 10.5 Gold 1,283.5 0.8 0.6 -1.6 Coal 83.8 -0.3 -1.0 -20.0 Palm Oil 1,974.0 -1.7 -5.1 -19.8 Rubber 147.6 0.5 3.2 5.4 Nickel 11,895.0 -0.7 -4.0 -18.8 Copper 5,926.0 0.0 -8.1 -13.9 Tin 19,325.0 0.0 -2.8 -6.3 JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets Market commentary Hariyanto Wijaya CFA, CPA (Aust), CMT ([email protected]) IHSG ditutup menguat +1,6% di balik euforia pemilihan presiden oleh investor lokal, sementara investor asing tetap membukukan net sell IDR546milyar. Kami perkirakanIHSG akan trade mixed to lower hari ini di balik sentimen negatif dari market AS semalam dan foreign fund outflow yang berkelanjutan. Indeks AS merosot pada Kamis karena investor melepas saham di tengah kekhawatiran akan perang dagang AS-China yang meningkat akan menghambat pertumbuhan ekonomi global. Energi dan teknologi memimpin penurunan. Harga minyak mentah merosot -5,15%, penurunan tertajam sejak awal tahun di balik perlambatan ekonomi global dan membengkaknya persediaan bahan bakar. UNVR: Innovations keep coming Mimi Halimin ([email protected]) Close to 100% dividend payout ratio Untuk tahun buku 2018, Unilever Indonesia (UNVR) memutuskan untuk membagikan total dividen IDR1,185/saham, yang terdiri dari dividen interim IDR410/saham dan dividen final IDR775/saham. Ini berarti dividend payout ratio (DPR) mencapai 99.3%, lebih tinggi dari yang kami perkirakan. Karena laba bersih FY18 termasuk one-off gain (divestasi aset spread; nilai transaksi bersih IDR2.8tr), kami sebelumnya mengasumsikan DPR yang lebih rendah. Berdasarkan harga penutupan 22 Mei, dividend ini menyiratkan dividen yield 1.8% (hanya untuk final dividen) atau 2.8% (total dividen). Aggressive product launches likely to continue Pada 1Q19, UNVR secara agresif meluncurkan produk-produk inovatif, termasuk Nameera Aquatic Botanical. Ada 27 kegiatan launching and re-launching di kuartal tersebut (13 di bisnis F&R, 14 di bisnis HPC), vs hanya enam kegiatan di 1Q18. Kami percaya kegiatan lauching and re-launching UNVR yang agresif ini kemungkinan akan berlanjut di kuartal mendatang di tengah ketatnya persaingan dalam kategori FMCG. Maintain Hold with a lower TP of IDR43,500 Kami mempertahankan perkiraan pendapatan 2019-20 kami untuk UNVR (+4.7% YoY menjadi IDR43.8tr di 2019, +5.0% YoY menjadi IDR45.9tr di 2020). Kami juga mempertahankan estimasi laba bersih FY19 kami, tetapi kami sedikit menyesuaikan perkiraan laba bersih FY20 kami sehubungan dengan penyesuaian terhadap asumsi dividen dan perkiraan bank loan. Dengan demikian, kami memperkirakan laba bersih UNVR 2019-20 masing-masing pada IDR7.2tr (-20.6% YoY) di FY19 dan IDR7.6tr (+4.4% YoY) di FY20. Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi Hold kami di UNVR. Namun, kami menurunkan target harga kami menjadi IDR43,500, sesuai dengan target P/E 45.9x (P/E rata-rata lima tahun) ke EPS 2019F kami. 550 800 1,050 1,300 1,550 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 01/1607/1601/1707/1701/1807/1801/19 JCI MSCI EM (pt) (pt)
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Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) : Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya β (beta) : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya Correlation : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG selama periode analisis. Period : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham. r-squared : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) Volatility (+/-%) : Besaran volatilitas normal positif/negatif dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase. Volatility (+/- point or Rp) : Besaran volatilitas normal positifl/negatif dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak dalam periode analisis.
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 3,889.0
_____ 3,808.03,846.7
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. [ BBRI
Prev. Avg. Price: 3,846.7
R-Squared: 0.8597
Period: 176
Std.Dev: 1.48
Volatility (+) : 0.0110
Volatility (-) : -0.0100
V-Ratio : 1.10
Chg.: 2.12%
3,850
13 20
BBRI - Volume = 209,226,896.00 209,226,896
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 3,910.1
_____ 3,687.03,800
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. [ BBRI
Prev. Avg. Price: 3,800.0
R-Squared: 0.8456
Period: 49
Std.Dev: 1.43
Volatility (+) : 0.0290
Volatility (-) : -0.0297
V-Ratio : 0.97
Chg.: 1.58%
3,850
Mar Apr May
BBRI - Volume = 699,668,992.00 699,668,992
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 4,303.5
_____ 3,709.2
3,976.7
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. [ BBRI
Prev. Avg. Price: 3,976.7
R-Squared: 0.9258
Period: 134
Std.Dev: 1.79
Volatility (+) : 0.0822
Volatility (-) : -0.0673
V-Ratio : 1.22
Chg.: -11.90%
3,850
Jul Oct 2019
BBRI - Volume = 2,249,286,144.00
2,249,286,144
24 Mei, 2019
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Chart 5. JCI Vs. USD/IDR Chart 6. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 7. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM) Chart 8. Energy price
V
Note: The latest figure for India are May 22th, 2019
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 9. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 10. Precious metal price
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
13,800
14,200
14,600
15,000
15,400
5,400
5,800
6,200
6,600
2/21 3/21 4/18 5/16
(IDR) (pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R)
1.6 2.3
-6.4
1.4 2.9 3.5
2.8
14.7
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
1D 1W 1M 1Y
Absolute Relative(%, %p)
-20
-352
-38 -47 -3
-106 -117
-1,541
-133 -56
-120
56
-1,800
-1,600
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
Korea Taiwan Indonesia ThailandPhilippines India
1 Day 5 Days (USDmn) (USDmn)
80
90
100
110
6/27 7/25 8/22 9/19
CPO WTI Coal(D-3M=100) (D-3M=100)
70
80
90
100
110
120
2/21 3/21 4/18 5/16
CPO WTI Coal(D-3M=100)
85
90
95
100
105
110
02/19 03/19 04/19 05/19
(D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin
85
95
105
115
125
02/19 03/19 04/19 05/19
(D-3M=100) Silver Gold Platinum
24 Mei, 2019
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Table. Key valuation metrics
Company Name Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)*
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