COVID-19 PwC Middle East 24 March 2020 Middle East Updates
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COVID-19xHealth
PwC Middle East 24 March 2020
Middle East Updates
PwC 2
Welcome Stephen AndersonStrategy and Markets Leader, PwC Middle East
Coronavirus: Economic implications for the Middle East Richard BoxshallChief Economist, PwC Middle East
Incident response & recovery... Where are we now? Matthew White Business Resilience Leader, PwC Middle East
Assessing the financial and operational impacts of COVID
Romil RadiaValuations and Business Modeling Leader, PwC Middle East
Mihir BhattBusiness Restructuring Services, PwC Middle East
Q&A
Our focus for today
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COVID-19 checklist and digital resources available
http://pwc.com/us/covid-19-navigator
Considerations checklist, prior webcasts and resources
www.pwc.com/me/covid-19
https://digitaltrust-me.pwc.com/assess/COVID
Digital Trust Manager New COVID-19 Response Module
COVID-19 - NavigatorAssess the impact on your business and gauge your readiness to respond
COVID-19: economic implications for the Middle East1 Richard Boxshall
Chief EconomistPwC Middle East
V
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The duration of the COVID-19 outbreak will shape the potential economic outcomes
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EARLY PEAKRapid rise in cases, peaking in Q2 2020.
DELAYED PEAKPublic health measures spread the peak over a longer period of time.1 2
2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022
New
cas
es /
wk Assume
vaccine available – June 2021
Assume vaccine available – June 2021
Economic implications :• Temporary slump in economic demand• Limited downsizing by businesses • V or U shaped recovery
Economic implications:• Prolonged slump in demand • Viable businesses under pressure• L shaped recovery if businesses
allowed to fail
Incident response & recovery... Where are we now?2 Matthew White
Business Resilience Leader PwC Middle East
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Bus
ines
s A
ctiv
ities
Business as usual COVID-19 First Response Adjusting to new normal post COVID-19
COVID-19 measures are eased (or lifted)
COVID-19 Response and Recovery
While COVID-19 has had a global effect, depending on the nature of operations of the organisation, the level of effect of the incident varies.
COVID-19 measures impacting critical infrastructures and essential services
Business activities and processes are normalized
Resumption activities for non critical services are initiated
Crisis Management procedures are put in place and scenario’s around COVID - 19 outbreak are tested
Where we are Business Continuity procedures put in place and critical services are prioritised for response and recovery
Understanding the nature of the COVID-19 incident
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Recover Define data indicators that trigger recovery measures, and the resources and assets required to recover to ‘business as usual’.
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DefendRespond
PwC’s pandemic resilience framework
Recove
r Sense
People & workplace
Regulatory
& legal
...Sense Monitor the onset of the pandemic, measure the health status of staff and implement controls to monitor and notify stakeholders.
Respond Make informed decisions in line with prepared scenario planning.
A holistic approach is needed to reduce the impact of a pandemic:
Com
munication
& reputation
Technology
Operations
& financial
Supp
ly c
hain
& d
istr
ibut
ion
...
...
...
...
...Defend Identify weak links and design effective control measures (e.g. isolation, quarantine or remote working).
Resilience framework for pandemic threats
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Support and monitor incident response
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Sense Defend Respond Recover
Prepare core Crisis Management Team
Map critical stakeholders’ comms
Amend contracts, SLAs and agreements
Investigate alternate work sites
Develop monitoring command centre
Scenario planning
Establish cross-functional steering committee
Perform strategic threat risk assessment
Review and update SOPs
Review and action crisis, continuity and specialist plans.
Scenario planning for possible impacts
Agree communications to staff and stakeholders
Align tech capabilities with requirements (remote working)
Address cybersecurity requirements
Create an inventory of critical assets and resources
Transition workforce to new normal post COVID-19
Conduct regular organisation wide crisis exercises
Apply learnings to refresh continuity and resilience capabilities
Align with organisation’s reputation, purpose and values
Shor
t ter
mLo
ng te
rm
Key resilience activities for pandemic threats
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Our COVID-19 response module provides insight into how prepared you are to deal with COVID-19. It outlines steps to take to improve your ability to respond and recover.
Developed against our pandemic response framework, this is a point in time assessment against the following risk domains:
● Resilience capability
● People and workplace
● Operations and financial
● Communication and reputation
● Supply chain and distribution
● Regulatory and legal
● Technology
Digital Trust Manager - COVID-19 response module
https://digitaltrust-me.pwc.com/assess/COVID
Assessing the financial and operational impacts of COVID-193 Romil Radia
Valuations & Business Modeling PwC Middle East
Mihir BhattBusiness Restructuring ServicesPwC Middle East
PwC
Helping our clients respond to COVID-19: Corporate response waves
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Mobilize● Health + safety ● Crisis and business continuity ● Workforce mobility● Liquidity management
Stabilize● Supply chain● Financial analysis & scenario
planning● Operations
Strategize● M&A● Strategy ● Operational transformation● Claims & disputes
Wave 1 - Immediate Wave 2- Medium term Wave 3 - Long term
Waves
● Workforce safety● Inadequate mobile technology● Assess liquidity and mitigate
gaps● Stakeholder engagement
● Stabilize workforce including reductions● Supply & manufacturing impacts● Operational disruption● Run alternative scenarios including
contingency planning
● Recovery & growth strategy● Deals ● Changing regulatory environment● Claims & disputes
Crisis Management Workforce
Ops & supply chain Tax & trade
Finance & liquidity
Strategy & brand
COVID-19: Three waves of crisis response
Pain points
6 areas of response
Three waves of response
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Manage your cash pressures
Forecasting in the face of uncertainty
Focus on stabilizing supplier and customer relationships
Areas where you can take immediate and medium term actions
Financial and operational assessment
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Develop an action plan based on the appropriate scenarios
Conduct a rapid assessment of your current state forecasting and scenario planning capabilities
Develop tactical models to deliver the analysis you need
Forecasting in the face of uncertainty
Analyse data to make informed decisions
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Understand your contractual positions with suppliers and contractors and address any identified disruption to your supply chain
Proactively communicate and align with supply chain and customers
Consider how best to retain your key customer and supply base
Assess demand variability and adjust your supply chain and operations accordingly
Focus on customers and suppliers
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Engage your external stakeholders, as a lack of communication can lead to low confidence in management and the business
Visibility and control: Ensure you understand your current and forecast cash position including immediate commitments
Working Capital Management: Implement further emergency cash control measures operational ‘brakes’ necessary to conserve cash
Manage your cash pressures
Q&A4
PwC 18
Stephen Anderson ME Strategy and Markets Leader
PwC Middle [email protected]
Richard BoxshallChief Economist
PwC Middle [email protected]
Mihir BhattDirector - Business Restructuring Services
PwC Middle [email protected]
Romil RadiaValuations and Business Modeling Leader
PwC Middle [email protected]
Matthew WhiteBusiness Resilience Leader
PwC Middle [email protected]
Contact us
19
Accounting implications of the effects of COVID-19
Webcast tomorrow:
25 March @ 11am GST
pwc.com
Thank you
This content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors.Established in the Middle East for 40 years, PwC has 22 offices across 12 countries in the region with around 5,600 people. (www.pwc.com/me).PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.
© 2020 PwC. All rights reserved
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