CIVIL-MILITARY FUSION CENTRE Mediterranean Review In Focus 1 North Africa 2 Northeast Africa 4 Horn of Africa 6 Middle East 8 The Civil-Military Fusion Centre (CFC) is an information and knowledge management organisation focused on improving civil-military interaction, facilitating information sharing and enhancing situational awareness through the CimicWeb portal and our weekly and monthly publications. CFC products link to and are based on open-source information from a wide variety of organisations, research centres and media sources. However, the CFC does not endorse and cannot necessarily guarantee the accuracy or objectivity of these sources. CFC publications are independently produced by Desk Officers and do not reflect NATO policies or positions of any other organisation. The CFC is part of NATO Allied Command Operations. For further information, contact: Med Basin Team Lead Angelia Sanders [email protected]The Mediterranean Team [email protected]INSIDE THIS ISSUE ABOUT THE CFC CONTACT THE CFC This document provides an overview of developments in the Mediterranean Basin and other regions of interest from 10 July — 23 July, with hyperlinks to source material highlighted and underlined in the text. For more information on the topics below or other issues pertaining to the region, please contact the members of the Med Basin Team, or visit our website at www.cimicweb.org. July 24 2012 In Focus: Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government By Britta Rinehard The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was formed in 2004 with a five-year mandate, recog- nised by the international community, to build a strong, centralised government in Mogadishu that would bring peace to Somalia, after 13 previous attempts since President Siad Barre was ousted in 1991. The mandate included the requirements to draft a new constitution and organise national elec- tions in 2009, leading to a permanent, representative government. Due to security issues, the newly- formed TFG was unable to govern from Mogadishu and initially convened in Kenya until parlia- ment’s first meeting in Baidoa, Somalia in February 2006. Following the removal of Islamists from the area by Ethiopian-supported government troops, Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf entered Mogadishu in January 2007 for the first time since taking office in 2004 and reclaimed the capital as the seat of his government. In an effort to bring stability to Somalia, particularly to the south-central region, the Djibouti Agreement was signed in August 2008 between the TFG and the Eritrea-based opposition Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS). In 2009, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed was elected by par- liament as the new Somali president. His goal was to bring peace and unity to his country. The Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP), which originally consisted of 275 members, was increased to 550 members in 2009 to include representatives from the opposition and civil society groups. The same year, the TFG’s mandate expired, but the TFP extended it for another two years until August 2011. Within that time frame, a constitution was to be drafted and general elections to be held; how- ever, in early 2011 it became clear that the two goals would not be met. Ahmed has been criticised by the international community for not doing enough to “restore law, order (continued on page 10)
This document provides an overview of developments in the Mediterranean Basin and other regions of interest from 10 July — 23 July, with hyperlinks to source material highlighted and underlined in the text.
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C I V I L - M I L I T A R Y F U S I O N C E N T R E
Mediterranean Review
In Focus 1 North Africa 2 Northeast Africa 4 Horn of Africa 6 Middle East 8
Somalia The UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea alleges that President Ahmed authorised a diplomatic passport to be given to
pirate leader Mohamed Abdi Hassan “Afweyne”, enabling him to enjoy diplomatic immunity, reports Reuters. The report claimed
that senior pirate leaders were benefiting from high level protection from Somali authorities and were not being targeted for arrest
or sanctions. The report criticised authorities of the semi-autonomous region of Puntland for failing to arrest well-known senior
pirate leaders while hundreds of low-level pirates had been arrested.
The UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia, Augustine P. Mahiga, condemned the murder of former trade
minister and current Member of Parliament, Mohamed Abdinur Garweyne, and the wounding of at least six others in a car bomb
attack in Mogadishu on 17 July. The attack was allegedly carried out by al Shabaab. In related news, according to Reuters, al Sha-
baab militants stated that they had executed three of their own members on 22 July for treason. The group believes that two of the
men were CIA spies who assisted the US government in guiding missiles launched from a drone to kill fellow militants in January
and February 2012. The third man was accused of spying for the United Kingdom. According to BBC, Somali government soldiers
and African Union troops seized a major al Shabaab training base on 11 July in an area 40 km west of Mogadishu. The training
camp is one of an estimated six camps across the country. Al Jazeera reports that al Shabaab has lost strategic ground in recent
months but there is concern that fighters are being driven underground and could perhaps extend the conflict into a long drawn-out
guerrilla war.
On 16 July, the Council of the European Union (EU) approved a new two-year civilian mission, EUCAP Nestor,to be headquar-
tered in Djibouti. According to the press release, a budget of EUR 22.8 million was allocated to accomplish the two main objectives
of the mission which include “strengthening the sea-going maritime capacities in the countries in the region (with the exception of
Somalia) and, in Somalia, the training of a coastal police force as well as of judges”. Djibouti, Kenya, Seychelles and Somalia have
accepted the offer of assistance and a team of approximately 175 people will support the mission.
According to UNHCR, the number of Somalis who have fled Somalia has surpassed one million, making Somalia one of the
“world’s worst and longest running refugee and humanitarian crises”. Somalis are fleeing their homeland as a result of fighting,
persistent drought and food shortages. Most have settled in Ethiopia, Kenya and Yemen. BBC reports that eight organisations, in-
cluding Oxfam and Save the Children, are reporting a possible USD 25 million shortfall in funds for provision of services to the
Dadaab refugee camp population in Kenya. The camp’s population has increased by almost a third over the last year and now hous-
es almost half a million people, most from Somalia. Aid agencies report that 30,000 new shelters are needed in addition to the pro-
vision of water supplies and sanitation for 50,000 refugees.
On 13 July, International Aid Services (IAS), a development and relief organisation, reports that three of its workers were kid-
napped in Puntland by Somali pirates. According to Somalia Report, the hostages have been transferred to a location in the south-
ern part of the Mudug region and OceanusLive reports the ransom demand for the release of the IAS workers is USD 1.5 million.
Piracy On 12 July, the Contact Group for Piracy off the Coast of Somalia (CGPCS) Working Group 1, the Asian Shipowners’ Forum
(ASF) offered a proposal “calling for the United Nations-sanctioned armed personnel to guard ships transiting high-risk areas in the
Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean”, reports Lloyd’s List. A recently-published UN report was less favourable on the use of private
maritime security companies (PMSCs) and called on the UN Security Council to establish an authority tasked to regulate and moni-
tor PMSCs’ activities, informs Shiptalk. The outcome of the latest meeting of the Maritime Safety Committee (MSC90) was to ob-
tain ISO standardisation of the privately contracted armed security personnel (PCASP)/PMSC business; this effort is expected to be
completed this autumn. Furthermore, the International Maritime Or-
ganization (IMO) has promulgated several circulars regarding this
issue: 1443, 1405, 1406 and 1408. Pursuant to MSC circular 1405,
the German government approved a draft bill regulating the use of
armed guards deployed on German-flagged vessels, reports Inter-
Manager. The correlation of new regulations to ISO certification is
yet to be seen.
Lloyd’s List reports that from January to June 2012, 69 Somali piracy incidents and 13 hijackings were registered by the Interna-
tional Maritime Bureau (IMB) Piracy Reporting Centre. During the same time period in 2011, there were 163 incidents and 21 hi-
jackings. The table below shows the number of hostages and vessels currently held by pirates, as of 16 July, according to three dif-
ferent organisations. At least another 47 hostages are being held on land. 1 Due to different definitions the figures can vary from entity to entity. While both NATO and EU only count vessels hijacked for ransom in their statistics, IMB also includes fishing vessels
and dhows hijacked for other reasons than ransom. When it comes to the number of hostages, figures can vary due to different information regarding how many persons originally were on
board the captured ships.
Page 7 24 July 2012
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Contact us at [email protected] or visit us online at www.cimicweb.org.
and basic services”. The President argues that he focused on fighting terrorism and, with the help of African Union Mission in So-
malia (AMISOM) troops, al Shabaab was pushed out of the capital and other former al Shabaab strongholds. Security in those areas
has improved. About 63,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) have been able to return to their homes in Mogadishu alone.
AMISOM, alongside TFG forces, continues to fight the Islamist militants; the government remains committed to drive the Islamic
militants out and establish law and order in the country.
There have been several reports accusing the TFG of corruption; the most recent accusations were leaked from a report by the UN
Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea, writes BBC. According to the report, out of every USD 10 received by the TFG between
2009 and 2010, USD 7 “never made it into state coffers”. The government denies the allegations. On 18 July, during a ceremony in
Mogadishu, Somali president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed accused the UN Monitoring Group of being against peace and claimed that “the
government is ready for transparency. If any money is missing, I am ready to resign”. In June, Ahmed announced that he will be
available for the re-bid of his seat. Somalia Report has started to feature presidential candidates on their website.
The Somalia Roadmap
The Kampala Accord was signed on 9 June 2011 by the Somali president and speaker of the TFP. Among other things, it extended
the current government until August 2012, called for the appointment of a new prime minister and stated that “both Government and
Parliament shall work together with the international community to establish a roadmap with benchmarks, timelines and compliance
mechanisms for the implementation of the priority task. Details of the mechanisms to be agreed by 20 August 2011”. On 11 July
2011, parliament approved the ten articles of the Kampala Accord with 393 Members of Parliament endorsing the agreement. A
consultative meeting was held in Mogadishu on 4-6 September 2011 to discuss the accord. Attendees included Somali government
officials and about 30 representatives from the international community. The meeting established a roadmap that will end the transi-
tional period for the Somali government. The mandate of the TFG will expire on 20 August 2012, by which time Somalia must com-
plete four main tasks in the areas of security, ratifying a constitution, reconciliation and good governance.
In December 2011, the first Somali National Consultative Constitutional Conference was held in Garowe, the capital of the semi-
autonomous region of Puntland, with TFG officials, representatives from the semi-autonomous region of Puntland and a faction of
the paramilitary group Ahlu Sunna wal Jamaah (ASWJ) participating. The conference resulted in the adoption of the Garowe Princi-
ples, based on previous agreements from the Somali National Peace Conference in Djibouti in 2000, and incorporation of the ‘4.5
formula’. The 4.5 clan representation formula calls for equal quotas for the major clans – the Darood, Digil-Mirifle, Dir and Hawiye
– each receiving 61 seats, while the remaining groups receive 31 seats. The formula will be used for the new parliament in 2012.
The Garowe Principles also seek a reduction in parliament from 550 seats to 225 seats, with an increase of women’s participation
from the current 7% to 20%. Based on the 4.5 formula and the Garowe Principles, the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) will
comprise 1,000 delegates, including 300 women, which will be selected from scholars, diaspora, religious and traditional leaders,
among others. The NCA was scheduled to meet in May 2012 to vote on the new Federal Constitution. Garowe Online states that the
NCA comprises 825 members rather than 1,000 as the Garowe II conference summary had indicated. On 25 July, The NCA started
its meetings to discuss the provisional constitution.
The second Somali National Consultative Constitutional Conference took place from 15-17 February 2012 in Garowe and estab-
lished the Garowe II Principles which “shall guide and direct finalization of the draft constitution and the process of ending the tran-
sition including the development and enactment of the legal framework therein”. The draft constitution was to be completed by 20
April 2012. On 22 June, the signatories of the roadmap signed the Joint Communiqué of the Consultative Meeting of the Signatories
of the Process for Ending the Transition and agreed on a draft constitution. On 18 July, Garowe Online reports that the traditional
elders reviewed and approved the provisional constitution. The elders are also tasked to dissolve the current parliament and elect the
new one, which will than elect the new president. The president will be tasked to nominate the new prime minister who will be sub-
ject to the approval of the parliament. UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia, Augustine P. Mahiga, said,
“Hopefully, on the eve of August 20, this new Cabinet will be sworn in and this will signify the end of the transition and the begin-
ning of a new dispensation with a completely different road map, a different mandate”. Some Somalia experts are concerned that the
TFG will not be able to make the deadline by 20 August “unless Somalia’s governing authority shows some commitment to the
task”.
Mahiga stated that the roadmap is challenging for various reasons, most notably bringing relevant players to the same table despite
limited resources and security concerns. There will also be fundamental changes “not only in the mindset, but in the leadership and
in the institutions. In 21 years, many have developed vested interests from a political perspective, including various clans, the busi-
ness community and various ideological groups. Some of these interest groups are not keen to see change”. Somalia will be on its
way to peace and stability, but this will be the beginning and not the end state.
Britta Rinehard is the CFC Desk Officer for HOA, holds a Masters in International Studies and has more than ten years of experience in the transportation sector.
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