SMM Press Conference - Shipbuilding Martin Stopford 1 CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD SMM Advance Press Conference 23th May 2012 World Shipbuilding Dr Martin Stopford Managing Director, Clarkson Research CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD 1. The Shipping Market 2. Shipyard Capacity & the Fleet 3. Four Future Challenges 4. Conclusions How do you play this hand? Is shipping more than just the worlds biggest crap game?
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23th May 2012 World Shipbuilding - clarksons.net Stopford World... · 23th May 2012 World Shipbuilding Dr Martin Stopford ... Source Maritime Economics 3 rd Ed Martin Stopford (2009)
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SMM Press Conference - Shipbuilding
Martin Stopford 1
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD
SMM Advance Press Conference
23th May 2012
World ShipbuildingDr Martin Stopford
Managing Director, Clarkson Research
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD
1. The Shipping Market2. Shipyard Capacity & the Fleet3. Four Future Challenges4. Conclusions
How do you play this hand?
Is shipping more than just �the worlds biggest crap
game?�
SMM Press Conference - Shipbuilding
Martin Stopford 2
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD
2. Shipping Bankers
Shall we say 30 cents in the $, Sir?
1. Ship owners
What shall I
buy now?
4. Investment Funds
Time to drop your
pants, boys
3. Shipbuilders
We just build ships.. so ORDER
SOME!
What about our $1.2
billion loan?
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD
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Cla
rkse
a In
dex
$000
/day
(Clarksea Index: av earnings by tankers, bulkers, containerships & gas.)
The installed power capacity of the shipping industry. Container fleet similar to W German power stations.
+ SOX, NOX, ballast etc.
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD
No Magic Solutions
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24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8
Fuel
cos
t sav
ing
, cha
rter c
ost i
ncre
ase
$000
Shows the effect on the cost of fuel (green lines) & the cost of shipping capacity (yellow line) of changing ship operating speed in 1 knot increments (based on 5000 mile voyage)
best speed at $1500/tonne
bunkers
best speed at $200/tonne
bunkers
Speed of ship (knots)
80% saving
LNGwindNUCLEAR
Hull formEngineering
logistics
Note 1: Just difficult decisions
COATINGS
EEDIscrubbers
No ballast
Fuel Cells
Back haulShipping lanes
SMM Press Conference - Shipbuilding
Martin Stopford 15
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD
Energy Efficiency Design Index
margin Sea x speed Reference capacity x CargoCO iesEffiicienc -2COmotor Shaft 2CO engineAux 2CO engineMain 2++
� Main Engines: grams of carbon after deducting shaft generator calculated from fuel consumption times a conversion factor (about .85)
� Aux Engines: same as main engine� Shaft motor: less any waste heat recovery (e.g. exhaust
gas boiler with turbo generator)
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD
Conclusions1. Key drivers today are:-� Globalization: positive as we spread into
Non OECD.. we still need to sort out credit crisis
� Shipbuilding overcapacity: over-production inevitable!but so are cheaper ships, willingness to do innovative work; & lower earnings will make cost control key.
� New economic model: Fuel replaces capital as key input. Major challenge to identify the design and equipment package for the new conditions
� Environmental pressure shipping�s oversized carbon footprint means emission regulation is here to stay. Again a technical challenge facing the marine equipment industry as EEDI & SEEMP move forward
2. Shipbuilding technology has no magic solutions � �improvement engineering�.
3. It sound tough but the cycle make us deal with these problems, whether we like it or not!