23 July 2009 Gary Klein, Ph.D. Applied Research Associates, Inc. Advancing Our Understanding of Advancing Our Understanding of Battlefield Decision Making.

23 July 2009

Gary Klein, Ph.D.Gary Klein, Ph.D.Applied Research Associates, Inc.Applied Research Associates, Inc.

Advancing Our Advancing Our Understanding of Understanding of

Battlefield Decision Battlefield Decision MakingMaking

Advancing Our Advancing Our Understanding of Understanding of

Battlefield Decision Battlefield Decision MakingMaking

Presented to: Army Research Laboratory Advanced Decision Architectures Workshop

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Explicit Knowledge:

1. Declarative information

2. Routines & procedures

Tacit Knowledge:

3. Pattern recognition

4. Perceptual discriminations

5. Mental models

6. Judging typicality

Six Types of KnowledgeSix Types of Knowledge

““Working Minds: Working Minds: A Practitioner’s Guide to CTA” A Practitioner’s Guide to CTA”

(Crandall, Klein, & Hoffman, 2004, MIT Press)

CTA with Intelligence AnalystsCTA with Intelligence Analysts

Interviewed 15 Intelligence Analysts– Used Cognitive Task Analysis interview and analysis techniques

Used a Modified Knowledge Audit Technique– Developed an Interview Guide with Profiling-specific questions

Organizations Visited to Find Daily Profilers (# of interviewees):

– National Air and Space Intelligence Center (1)– Joint Forces Intelligence Command (6)– Joint Warfare Analysis Center (1)– National Ground Intelligence Center (7)

Findings Related to Design ConceptsFindings Related to Design Concepts

1. Analysts frequently use simple queries when sophisticated queries would yield better results

– Design: Analysts need support in simplifying the construction of sophisticated queries

2. Analysts reluctant to change query strategy– Design: Results comparison could explicitly illustrate merit of

queries

3. Collaboration is a strategy of expert, well-networked analysts

– Design: Make query-building collaboration broadly accessible

4. Analysts can infer information and intelligence from message arrival rate

– Design: Make arrival rate information explicitly available

Army Field Manual 6.0 Army Field Manual 6.0 RPD and Military PlanningRPD and Military Planning

Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP)

Intuitive Decision Making

Recognitional Planning ModelRecognitional Planning Model

The “DECISION”(subject to analysis and evaluation)

Once the COA satisfices in the wargame and/or analysis, it has become “the PLAN.” No need to compare options.

Situational InformationGuidance/Tasking

from HHQ

Identify Mission

ConceptualizeCOA

Analyze/Operationalize

COAWargame

COADevelopOpOrd DISSEMINATE

EXECUTEIMPROVISE

Results: Participant CommentsResults: Participant Comments

Favorable After Action Review comments increased on each succeeding day.

– “I think it’s great, because it’s faster than MDMP.”

– “I like it if the commander and his staff are open to critical thinking and can see improvements to the plan and options.”

– “I like the CDR-driven focus and involvement.”

– “RPM is the abbreviated MDMP process being practiced by many units. It is good to codify the abbreviated process.”

– “I think the RPM model has its place but I also think it will require further study before the military adopts it as our new MDMP.”

Recognitional Planning ModelRecognitional Planning Model

Participants estimated the RPM would take at least 30% less time than the MDMP

Studies of RPM in UK also show superiority of RPM to other methods

Division-level planning groups in the Swedish Army– Groups using RPM needed 17% less time to select a COA

– Plan quality was 10% higher than those generated using the MDMP, based on a panel of experts headed by a BG

– RPM was rated as more suited for planning under realistic conditions (4.58 vs. 3.12 on a 6-point scale)

– The Swedish Army has adopted its version of the RPM in its new field manual

ReplanningReplanning

Flight plan in aviation: Getting from Point A to Point B

Milestone Planning Milestone Planning

Monitoring progress toward goals only makes sense if the goals don’t change

But: Point B may not exist– Planning for ill-defined goals

– Simultaneously solve and discover goal properties (Klein & Weitzenfeld, 1978)

U.S. Army Examples of U.S. Army Examples of Wicked ProblemsWicked Problems

Restore the educational system in Iraq

Arrest war criminals in Kosovo

Evaluate the Future Combat System (FCS), which keeps changing

Provide Baghdad with electricity eight hours a day

Operation Iraqi Freedom: Free Iraq

Management by Discovery (MBD)Management by Discovery (MBD)is Revising Goals as You Pursue Themis Revising Goals as You Pursue Them

MBD helps you manage organizations, projects and people under MBD helps you manage organizations, projects and people under unpredictable conditions -- when you can't nail down the goals and unpredictable conditions -- when you can't nail down the goals and

schedules. MBD prepares you to re-frame and adapt as you go along.schedules. MBD prepares you to re-frame and adapt as you go along.

Concept ofConcept ofManagement by Discovery (MBD)Management by Discovery (MBD)

MBD is a strategy for achieving desirable outcomes in the face of complexity, wicked problems, and ill-defined goals.

– “Desirable outcomes” vs. “the desired outcomes”

40-60% of programs/projects involve wicked problems and ill-defined goals.

– These are often the most critical and high priority efforts

Management by Objectives (MBO) works best in well-ordered situations.

Focus of MB/Discovery is on rapidly learning what the goals really are.

– Versus MBO which locks into reaching the initial goals

(Re-)Planning

Sensemaking

Coordinating

Adapting

DetectingProblems

Deciding

MaintainingCommonGround

ManagingAttention

IdentifyingLeverage

Points

ManagingUncertainty

& Risk

MentallySimulating

&Storybuilding

DevelopingMentalModels

Gary Klein, Ph.D.Gary Klein, Ph.D.Klein AssociatesKlein Associates

A Division of Applied Research Associates, Inc.A Division of Applied Research Associates, Inc.

1750 Commerce Center Blvd. North1750 Commerce Center Blvd. NorthFairborn, OH 45324Fairborn, OH 45324

937.873.8166937.873.8166

[email protected]@decisionmaking.comhttp://www.ara.com/offices/OH.htmhttp://www.ara.com/offices/OH.htm

Gary Klein, Ph.D.Gary Klein, Ph.D.Klein AssociatesKlein Associates

A Division of Applied Research Associates, Inc.A Division of Applied Research Associates, Inc.

1750 Commerce Center Blvd. North1750 Commerce Center Blvd. NorthFairborn, OH 45324Fairborn, OH 45324

937.873.8166937.873.8166

[email protected]@decisionmaking.comhttp://www.ara.com/offices/OH.htmhttp://www.ara.com/offices/OH.htm

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