Economic Comment 22 Nov 2016 Please see disclaimer on last page 1 Thailand’s 3Q16 GDP Bit of a slow down ► Thai economy grew 3.2% YoY in 3Q16, slowing from 2Q16 and below the consensus and our forecast. GDP expanded 3.3% YoY in 9M16. ► All GDP components slowed down QoQ or contracted YoY, except for exports which showed better growth. ► The key for growth in 3Q16 was private consumption which remained strong at 3.5% YoY growth. ► Aggregate investment growth slowed down to 1.4% YoY. ► Tourism continued to be robust with substantial tourist arrivals. ► Agricultural sector expanded for the first time in two years. ► Manufacturing sector, the largest sector, slowed down again. ► Hotels & restaurants, construction, commerce, transportation & telecom, financial and utilities (combined 45% of GDP) showed decent growth, despite some slowdown. ► Revise down our GDP growth forecast to 3.3% for this year and 3.5% for 2017 from 3.5% and 4.0%, respectively, in our previous forecast. The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) reported that the Thai economy expanded by 3.2% YoY and 0.6% QoQ in 3Q16, slowing down from growth of 3.5% YoY and 0.7% QoQ in 2Q16 (See Table 1). The numbers were below expectations. Reuters’ consensus surveys had called for the Thai economy to expand by 3.4% YoY and 0.7% QoQ in 3Q16, and we had estimated 3.5% YoY and 0.8% QoQ. All GDP components expanded at slower growth rates QoQ or even contracted YoY, except for exports of goods which showed small growth of 0.4%. For 9M16 the Thai economy expanded by 3.3% YoY. The NESDB forecast its GDP growth for this year at 3.2%, tilting slightly towards the lower end of its previous forecast of 3.0-3.5%. It said the economy in 4Q16 could slightly soften due to the mourning period for the death of King Rama 9, slower tourism and last year's high base effect. It predicted 2017 GDP to grow 3.0-4.0%. We revise down our GDP growth forecast to 3.3% for this year and 3.5% for 2017 from 3.5% and 4.0%, respectively, in our previous forecast. Weight 2015 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Private consumption 53.6 2.1 2.5 1.7 1.8 2.6 2.3 3.8 3.5 Public consumption 17.2 2.2 0.7 1.0 2.3 4.8 8.0 1.5 -5.8 Private investment 14.6 -2.0 3.7 -3.1 -10.1 1.9 2.1 0.2 -0.5 Public investment 7.0 29.8 36.6 23.2 21.9 41.2 13.3 11.9 6.3 Aggregate investment 21.6 4.7 10.3 2.6 -2.6 9.4 4.9 3.2 1.4 Exports of goods & services 67.2 0.2 1.2 1.5 1.7 -3.3 4.9 2.0 3.4 Goods -3.4 -2.5 -3.9 -1.8 -5.6 1.0 -0.9 0.4 Services 14.9 15.4 27.3 16.5 4.9 18.2 12.6 14.7 Imports of goods & services 54.7 -0.4 2.3 0.2 -2.6 -1.2 -4.7 -1.6 -1.3 Goods -0.6 3.9 -0.4 -3.3 -2.3 -7.1 2.7 3.9 Services 0.6 -3.2 2.3 0.1 3.4 3.9 -16.1 -19.9 Trade balance % of GDP 11.3 10.9 8.8 12.0 13.5 19.2 13.1 15.6 Current a/c balance % of GDP 8.9 8.1 6.2 7.6 10.4 16.7 8.1 10.7 GDP growth YoY 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.2 GDP growth QoQ 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.6 Source: NESDB and AWS estimates Table 1: GDP growth: expenditure concept (% YoY) Thailand Research Department Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.017923) Tel: 02 680 5041
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22 Nov 2016 Thailand’s 3Q16 GDP Table 1: GDP growth ... · 22 Nov 2016 Please see disclaimer on last page Thailand’s 3Q16 GDP Bit of a slow down Thai economy grew 3.2% YoY in
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Economic Comment 22 Nov 2016
Please see disclaimer on last page 1
Thailand’s 3Q16 GDP
Bit of a slow down
► Thai economy grew 3.2% YoY in 3Q16, slowing from 2Q16 and
below the consensus and our forecast. GDP expanded 3.3% YoY
in 9M16.
► All GDP components slowed down QoQ or contracted YoY, except
for exports which showed better growth.
► The key for growth in 3Q16 was private consumption which
remained strong at 3.5% YoY growth.
► Aggregate investment growth slowed down to 1.4% YoY.
► Tourism continued to be robust with substantial tourist arrivals.
► Agricultural sector expanded for the first time in two years.
► Manufacturing sector, the largest sector, slowed down again.
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