22 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 JK Lakshmi Cement HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters Strong margin uptick; Healthy balance sheet We maintain BUY on JK Lakshmi Cement with a TP of Rs 370. A sharp 16% vol dip in 4QFY20 pulled down FY20 vol by 5% YoY. The Covid impact will further pull down FY21E volume by 16% YoY. However, we build in 21% vol recovery in FY22E. This along with falling energy costs in FY21 to limit standalone EBITDA decline CAGR at 3% during FY20-22E. Healthy cash flows keep leverage comfortable and support capex acceleration FY22E onwards. In 4QFY20, despite lower vols, healthy pricing in the north/Guj markets boosted standalone EBITDA/APAT by 54/133%. EBITDA Margin surges to 30-qtr high; despite sharp sales’ decline: Sales vol fell 16% YoY (+6% QoQ) to 2.5mn MT, hit hard by Covid led lockdown, pulling down cem utilisation to 70% vs 96/80% YoY/QoQ. Higher share of clinker (13% vs 7/7% YoY/QoQ) in total sales flattened NSR QoQ. However, NSR remained 8% up YoY, benefitting from buoyant pricing in the north/Guj markets. This, along-with lower unitary opex (lower energy cost tailwinds) boosted unitary EBITDA by 84/26% YoY/QoQ to Rs 820/MT (30- qtr high)! Hence despite 10% revenue fall, EBITDA/PAT rose 54/133% YoY. Balance sheet firmed up on healthy cashflows, lower capex in FY20: Solid pricing in the north/Guj regions boosted 10% NSR gain in FY20, which more than offset 5% vol loss and unitary EBITDA grew to its 7-yr high of Rs 732/MT. Falling petcoke prices and logistics cost control also boosted margin expansion. Thus, EBITDA/APAT soared 62/221% YoY. Amid low capex spends, JKLC’s gross/net debt fell 10/18% YoY to Rs 14.5/10bn resp and its net Debt/EBITDA halved to 1.5x YoY (10-yr low). Concall/ capex updates: The co is adding a 10MW WHRS in Sirohi by Mar’21E and its subs – Udaipur Works will debottleneck its clinker capacity by 0.3mn MT. It will start work on a 2.5mn MT brown-field expansion in Raj in FY22E, after the Covid situation normalizes. Thus, total capex outflow during FY21-22E in our view should be lower at Rs 8bn vs our earlier est of Rs 12bn. This should keep leverage under check amid earnings decline in the same period. We estimate net Debt/EBITDA to remain under 2x . Maintain BUY: We have reduced EBITDA est for FY21/22E by 4/4% each as we factor in higher impact of Covid and build in EBITDA to decline at 3% CAGR during FY20-22E. We value the standalone cement biz at 8x FY22E EBITDA and value its 72.5% holding in Udaipur Cement Works at 20% disc. Thus, our SOTP based TP remains unchanged at Rs 370. We continue to like the co for its large presence in north markets and on increased cost controls. YE Mar (Rs mn) 4Q FY20 4Q FY19 YoY (%) 3Q FY19 QoQ (%) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Net Sales 10,612 11,725 (9.5) 10,050 5.6 34,122 38,823 40,435 34,304 41,405 EBITDA 2,020 1,312 53.9 1,519 33.0 4,114 4,150 6,724 5,208 6,371 APAT 1,008 433 132.9 492 104.9 840 796 2,624 1,613 2,238 AEPS (Rs) 8.6 3.7 132.9 4.2 104.9 7.1 6.8 22.3 13.7 19.0 EV /EBITDA (x) 9.7 8.8 5.1 6.6 5.7 EV/MT (Rs bn) 3.66 3.36 2.93 2.93 3.13 P/E (x) 28.9 30.5 9.2 15.0 10.8 RoE (%) 5.9 5.3 16.2 9.0 11.4 Source: Company, HSIE Research, Standalone Financials BUY CMP (as on 21 May 2020) Rs 206 Target Price Rs 370 NIFTY 9,106 KEY CHANGES OLD NEW Rating Buy Buy Price Target Rs 370 Rs 370 EBITDA % FY21E FY22E (4.3) (4.4) KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg code JKLC IN No. of Shares (mn) 118 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 24/321 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 59 52 Week high / low Rs 396/180 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (36.7) (26.7) (44.1) Relative (%) (11.8) (3.0) (23.5) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Dec-19 Mar-20 Promoters 45.93 46.21 FIs & Local MFs 18.71 18.96 FPIs 10.53 10.61 Public & Others 24.83 24.22 Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0 Source : BSE Rajesh Ravi [email protected]+91-22-6171-7352 Saurabh Dugar [email protected]+91-22-6171-7353
9
Embed
22 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 JK Lakshmi Cementimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/05/JK... · JK Lakshmi Cement Page | 3 : Results Review 4QFY20 Operational Trends and
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
22 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20
JK Lakshmi Cement
HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters
Strong margin uptick; Healthy balance sheet
We maintain BUY on JK Lakshmi Cement with a TP of Rs 370. A sharp 16%
vol dip in 4QFY20 pulled down FY20 vol by 5% YoY. The Covid impact will
further pull down FY21E volume by 16% YoY. However, we build in 21% vol
recovery in FY22E. This along with falling energy costs in FY21 to limit
standalone EBITDA decline CAGR at 3% during FY20-22E. Healthy cash
flows keep leverage comfortable and support capex acceleration FY22E
onwards. In 4QFY20, despite lower vols, healthy pricing in the north/Guj
markets boosted standalone EBITDA/APAT by 54/133%.
From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Ma
y-1
9
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Ma
r-2
0
Ap
r-2
0
Ma
y-2
0
JK Lakshmi TP
Page | 9
JK Lakshmi Cement: Results Review 4QFY20
Disclosure:
We, Rajesh Ravi, MBA & Saurabh Dugar, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research
report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this
report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this
report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative
or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding
the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material
conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock –No
HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.
Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is solely for information of the recipient only. The report must not be used as a singular basis of any
investment decision. The views herein are of a general nature and do not consider the risk appetite or the particular circumstances of an individual investor;
readers are requested to take professional advice before investing. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment advice. Each recipient of this
document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including merits and risks) and should consult their own advisors to determine merits and risks of such investment. The
information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be
reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy,
completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. Descriptions of any company or companies or their
securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete. HSL is not obliged to update this report for such changes. HSL has the right to make changes and
modifications at any time.
This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen
or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be
contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HSL or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.
If this report is inadvertently sent or has reached any person in such country, especially, United States of America, the same should be ignored and brought to
the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published in whole or in part, directly or indirectly, for any purposes or in
any manner.
Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or
price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively
assume currency risk. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.
This document is not, and should not, be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This report
should not be construed as an invitation or solicitation to do business with HSL. HSL may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services
for, any company mentioned in this mail and/or its attachments.
HSL and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of
the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a
market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any
other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.
HSL, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments
made or any action taken on basis of this report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates,
diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.
HSL and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt
in the report, or may make sell or purchase or other deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations
described in this report.
HSL or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject
company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
HSL or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from t
date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage
services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business.
HSL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with
preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HSL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this
report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. HSL may
have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of
the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg